• Title/Summary/Keyword: 피해발생확률

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Optimal Sensor Placement of Boundaries and Robustness Analysis for Chemical Release Detection and Response of Near Plant (주변 사업장의 화학물질 확산 감지와 대응을 위한 경계면의 센서배치 최적화 및 강건성 분석)

  • Cho, Jaehoon;Kim, Hyunseung;Kim, Tae-Ok;Shin, Dongil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.104-111
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the quantities of chemical material are increasing in chemical industries. At that time, release accident is increasing due to aging of equipment, mechanical failure, human error, etc. and industrial complexes found community properties in a specific area. For that matter, chemical release accident can lead to hight probability of large disaster. There is a need to analyze the boundaries optimal sensor placement calculated by selecting release scenarios through release condition and wether condition in a chemical process for release detection and response. This paper is to investigate chlorine release accident scenarios using COMSOL. Through accident scenarios, a numerical calculation is studied to determine optimized sensor placement with weight of detection probability, detection time and concentration. In addition, validity of sensor placement is improved by robustness analysis about unpredicted accident scenarios. Therefore, this verifies our studies can be effectively applicable on any process. As mention above, the result of this study can help to place mobile sensor, to track gas release based concentration data.

Study on the Establishment of a Safety Allowance Level of Disastrous and Hazardous Facilities in Large Cities (대도시 위해.위험시설에 대한 안전도 수용기준 정립에 관한 연구)

  • 고재선;윤명오
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2001
  • In today's world, rise in the establishment of social infrastructure resulting from population saturation in large cities has led to more extensive and frequent use of chemical materials on facilities. A result, unexpected and serious accidents, hazards, contingencies and disasters are more prevalent than ever. Such phenomenon calls for more devoted and concerted efforts towards finding ways to reduce the safety hazards that are seen to take place more often than before with the increase in the number of facilities that are prone to bring disaster and hazard coupled with the conventional safety problems that continue to exist even today. In developed countries, such challenge is addressed by various appropriate countermeasures drawn up by local professional committees on industrial facilities, whose members conduct offsite and onsite evaluation un the potential industrial disasters and its seriousness and provide their advice thereof. Against this backdrop, this study aims at identifying a comprehensive safety allowance level (safety acceptable level) when imposing limitation on the development of conventional or new facilities, for the fur pose of establishing a safety allowance level of disastrous and dangerous facilities in Korea. This is done by assessing and applying the level of danger each individual is exposed to in a randomly selected region (disastrous and dangerous areas in Seoul) based on probability of quantitative hazards, as well as simulation and calculation methods which include: i) social disaster evaluation method applying Quantified Risk Assessment of Health & Safety Executive of UK and Matrix of Risk of Evaluated Sources of Hazard; ii) Fault Tree or Event Tree Analysis and etc.

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A Study on the Risk of Lightning in Special Structures and its Verification Method (특수 구조물의 낙뢰 위험도와 검증 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Jeong Hyun;Kim, Hei Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.664-668
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    • 2018
  • Free-standing structures that are especially high are more likely to receive brain attacks caused by lightning. Since special structures are generally part of national industrial structures, lightning strikes mostly cause socio-economic damage. Lightning protection facilities are installed to prevent such lightning damage, but in 2015, support cables on West Sea bridges were hit by lightning, causing a lot of economic damage. Accordingly, the design of a lightning protection system shall establish protective measures after analyzing the risk of debris falling onto the structure. In this thesis, lightning strikes are analyzed directly in relation to the modeling system that operates the actual information collection system for lightning strikes, depending on the location of the tall, free-standing structures, and practical lightning hazard information is provided by a meteorological station. In addition, we propose monitoring and applying a probability correction rate to the calculation of the lightning risk based on the number of lightning strikes directly reaching the ground in order to obtain an effective lightning risk assessment.

Evaluation of Cave-in Possibility of a Shallow Depth Rock Tunnel by Rock Engineering Systems and Uumerical Analyses (암반공학시스템과 수치해석을 이용한 저심도 암반터널에서의 붕락 발생 가능성 평가)

  • Kim, Man-Kwang;Yoo, Young-Il;Song, Jae-Joon
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.236-247
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    • 2009
  • Overpopulation has significantly increased the use of underground spaces in urban areas, and led to the developments of shallow-depth underground space. Due to unexpected rock fall, however, it is very necessary to understand and categorize the rock mass behaviors prior to the tunnel excavation, by which unnecessary casualties and economic loss could be prevented. In case of cave-in, special attention should be drawn since it occurs faster and greater in magnitude compared to rock fall and plastic deformation. Types of cave-in behavior are explained and categorized using seven parameters - Uniaxial Compressive Strength (UCS), Rock Quality Designation (RQD), joint surface condition, in-situ stress condition, ground water condition, earthquake & ground vibration, tunnel span. This study eventually introduces a new index called Cave-in Behavior Index (CBI) which explains the behavior of cave-in under given in-situ conditions expressed by the seven parameters. In order to assess the mutual interactions of the seven parameters and to evaluate the weighting factors for all the interactions, survey data of the experts' opinions and Rock Engineering Systems (RES) were used due to lack of field observations. CBI was applied to the tunnel site of Seoul Metro Line No. 9. UDEC analyses on 288 cases were done and occurrences of cave-in in every simulation were examined. Analyses on the results of 288 cases of simulations revealed that the average CBI for the cases when cave-in for different patterns of tunnel support was estimated by a logistic regression analysis.

Significance Analysis of Yellow Dust Related Disease Using Tweet Data (트윗 데이터를 이용한 황사 관련 질병 유의성 분석)

  • Jung, Yong-Han;Seo, Min-Song;Yoo, Hwan-Hee
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.267-276
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    • 2017
  • Damages have occurred in various fields such as agriculture, industry, and citizen's health due to the yellow dust. Therefore, it is urgent to take measures against it. In this regard, this study collected data of yellow dust over 11 days on a basis of Feb. 23. 2015 when yellow dust was the greatest after 2009, issue words analysis and recomposed health related tweet data. After testing the significance of yellow dust related diseases by association rule analysis with diseases, it obtained the study results as follows: As a result of significance test for the patients with rhinitis, asthma and conjunctivitis by acquiring the condition data of patients from the Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service, conjunctivitis appeared to be significant in 13 cities for 16 cities at 5% significance probability, while asthma and rhinitis showed a significance in 3 and 6 areas. As described above, it is possible to obtain information about citizens' health from SNS data, such as Tweet data and it is judged that these data will provide useful information for establishing measures of citizens' health care.

Assessing the Climatic Suitability for the Drywood Termite, Cryptotermes domesticus Haviland (Blattodea: Kalotermitidae), in South Korea (마른나무흰개미(가칭)의 국내 기후적합성 평가)

  • Min-Jung Kim;Jun-Gi Lee;Youngwoo Nam ;Yonghwan Park
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.215-220
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    • 2023
  • A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.

A Reliability Analysis of Shallow Foundations using a Single-Mode Performance Function (단일형 거동함수에 의한 얕은 기초의 신뢰도 해석 -임해퇴적층의 토성자료를 중심으로-)

  • 김용필;임병조
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.27-44
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    • 1986
  • The measured soil data are analyzed to the descriptive statistics and classified into the four models of uncorrelated-normal (UNNO), uncorrelated-nonnormal (VNNN), correlatedonnormal(CONN), and correlated-nonnormal(CONN) . This paper presents the comparisons of reliability index and check points using the advanced first-order second-moment method with respect to the four models as well as BASIC Program. A sin91e-mode Performance function is consisted of the basic design variables of bearing capacity and settlements on shallow foundations and input the above analyzed soil informations. The main conclusions obtained in this study are summarized as follows: 1. In the bearing capacity mode, cohesion and bearing-capacity factors by C-U test are accepted for normal and lognormal distribution, respectively, and negatively low correlated to each other. Since the reliability index of the CONN model is the lowest one of the four model, which could be recommended a reliability.based design, whereas the other model might overestimate the geotechnical conditions. 2. In the case of settlements mode, the virgin compression ratio and preccnsolidation pressure are fitted for normal and lognormal distribution, respectively. Constraining settlements to the lower ones computed by deterministic method, The CONN model is the lowest reliability of the four models.

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Assessment of Environmental Impact on the Severely Soil-Eroded Area by heavy Rainfall (집중호우로 인한 토양침식 우심지역 환경영향평가)

  • Hyun, Byung-Keun;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Jung, Sug-Jae;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Kim, Lee-Yeol;Kim, Sun-Kwan;Kwak, Han-Kang;Jung, Ji-Ho;Choi, Jung-Won;Jung, Ki-Yeol;Kim, Chun-Sig;Hyun, Geun-Soo;Pyeon, In-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.118-130
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    • 2007
  • The steep-sloped agricultural land was severely damaged by rainfall events during July and August every year. The objective of this study was to investigate an effects of intensive rainfall to the soil properties of the steep-sloped agricultural land. Survey sites including the Sacheon myeon area were located in Gangneung, those were severely damaged from a forest fire in April 2000. Surveys were taken at these sites after two years of forest fire and severe rainfall events in August 2002, which included an event that poured with 870 mm of rainfall in a day. After this storm, soil erosion, burying, and flooding were observed. Severe soil loss was found at lower soil-depths, greater slopes, longer slope lengths, and concave landscapes. Soil loss and land slides were often found at areas with having a coarser textures, higher bulk densities, lower water holding capacity, and lower rates of soil aggregation. Crop growth stagnation was found at the site of crop restoration because of low soil fertility and poor drainage caused by the abrupt textural changes. In conclusion, it is necessary to manage the steep-slope agricultural land based on environmental impact assessment data of macro morphological and physical characteristics by intensive rainfall.

A Study on Flooding Characteristic Value for the Decision Method of an Urban Basin Design Magnitude (도시유역의 치수계획규모 결정을 위한 침수특성치에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Jeonghwan;Cho, Woncheol;Kim, Hosoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.10
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    • pp.1035-1041
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    • 2012
  • This paper is on the decision of design magnitude for flood control of urban basin, based on flooding characteristic values. In Korea, a design magnitude for flood control is established based on peak discharge of the outlet of basin. However, this method is inappropriate in an urban basin because sewerage only can flow out as much as it could and other discharge overflow to basin. In order to calculate a design magnitude for flood control of an urban basin, flooding characteristic values (peak discharge of pipe, average flooded depth, maximum flooded depths of an important point, flooded area, flooded volume, flooded time) were used as a tool. Using the Gwanghwamun Square as an example, a methodology was proposed that used XP-SWMM 2010 model as a platform to predict urban flood disaster. It can help other local government and residents to better understand, prepare for and manage a flood in urban environments.

Coastal Complex Disaster Risk Assessment in Busan Marine City (부산 마린시티 해안의 복합재난 위험성 평가)

  • Hwang, Soon-Mi;Oh, Hyoung-Min;Nam, Soo-yong;Kang, Tae-Soon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.506-513
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    • 2020
  • Due to climate change, there is an increasing risk of complex (hybrid) disasters, comprising rising sea-levels, typhoons, and torrential rains. This study focuses on Marine City, Busan, a new residential city built on a former landfill site in Suyeong Bay, which recently suffered massive flood damage following a combination of typhoons, storm surges, and wave overtopping and run-up. Preparations for similar complex disasters in future will depend on risk impact assessment and prioritization to establish appropriate countermeasures. A framework was first developed for this study, followed by the collection of data on flood prediction and socioeconomic risk factors. Five socioeconomic risk factors were identified: (1) population density, (2) basement accommodation, (3) building density and design, (4) design of sidewalks, and (5) design of roads. For each factor, absolute criteria were determined with which to assess their level of risk, while expert surveys were consulted to weight each factor. The results were classified into four levels and the risk level was calculated according to the sea-level rise predictions for the year 2100 and a 100-year return period for storm surge and rainfall: Attention 43 %, Caution 24 %, Alert 21 %, and Danger 11 %. Finally, each level, indicated by a different color, was depicted on a complex disaster risk map.