• Title/Summary/Keyword: 표본 외 예측

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An Error Correction Model for Long Term Forecast of System Marginal Price (전력 계통한계가격 장기예측을 위한 오차수정모형)

  • Shin, Sukha;Yoo, Hanwook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2021
  • The system marginal price of electricity is the amount paid to all the generating units, which is an important decision-making factor for the construction and maintenance of an electrical power unit. In this paper, we suggest a long-term forecasting model for calculating the system marginal price based on prices of natural gas and oil. As most variables used in the analysis are nonstationary time series, the long run relationship among the variables should be examined by cointegration tests. The forecasting model is similar to an error correction model which consists of a long run cointegrating equation and another equation for short run dynamics. To mitigate the robustness issue arising from the relatively small data sample, this study employs various testing and estimating methods. Compared to previous studies, this paper considers multiple fuel prices in the forecasting model of system marginal price, and provides greater emphasis on the robustness of analysis. As none of the cointegrating relations associated with system marginal price, natural gas price and oil price are excluded, three error correction models are estimated. Considering the root mean squared error and mean absolute error, the model based on the cointegrating relation between system marginal price and natural gas price performs best in the out-of-sample forecast.

A Survey on the Critical Success Factors of Knowledge Management Using AHP (AHP 분석을 이용한 지식경영 실천 요소의 중요도에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • 이영수;박준아;정광식;김진우
    • Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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    • 1999.06a
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 1999
  • 지식경영을 효과적으로 수행하기 위해서 기업은 지식경영을 구성하고 있는 요소를 정확히 이해할 필요가 있고, 이러한 중요 요소에 따라 투자가 이루어져야 한다. 본 연구는 지식경영의 중요 요소들을 제시함으로써, 앞으로 지식경영을 계획하고 있는 기업이 효과적으로 지식경영을 추진할 수 있는 활동 지침 및 투자 방향을 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위해, 본 연구에서는 각종 국내외 지식경영 관련 문헌에서 논의된 사항을 중심으로, 지식경영을 구성하는 30개의 중요요소를 추출하고, 분석계층도(AHP)를 이용하여 지식경영을 달성하기 위한 요소들을 위계적 구조로 정리하고, 최종단계에서 238개의 지식경영 구현의 평가기준을 마련하였다. 또한 실제로 지식경영 구현 요소들의 상대적 중요성을 파악하기 위해, 먼저 국내에서 지식경영을 추진하고 있거나 관심을 보이고 있는 48개 기업의 담당자 및 관련 부서원을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였고, 동시에 지식경영을 실제로 수행하고 있는 13개 기업의 담당자를 대상으로 각 기업에서 추진하고 있는 지식경영의 현황 파악을 위해 지식경영 실천의 평가기준에 대한 설문을 실시하였다. 이 두 가지 설문 조사 결과를 종합해 볼 때, 기업에서는 지식경영 구현 요소 중에서 인프라 내의 프로세스와 프로세스를 구성하는 지식의 활용과 전파 등이 중요하다고 인식하고 있는 반면, 실제로는 인프라 내의 정보기술과 프로세스를 구성하는 다른 한 축인 지식의 창출과 축적 면에 투자가 이루어진 것으로 나타났다. 이 외에도 지식화, 성과와 가치의 연계 그리고 지식의 가시화 등의 요소들은 상대적 중요도 인식과는 반대로 지식경영 추진에 있어 외면당하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 본 연구는 지식 경영의 이러한 불균형을 시정할 수 있는 방향으로 앞으로의 투자가 수행되어야 할 것을 제안하고 있다. 산업의 밀도를 비재무적 지표변수로 산정하여 로지스틱회귀 분석과 인공신경망 기법으로 검증하였다. 로지스틱회귀분석 결과에서는 재무적 지표변수 모형의 전체적 예측적중률이 87.50%인 반면에 재무/비재무적 지표모형은 90.18%로서 비재무적 지표변수 사용에 대한 개선의 효과가 나타났다. 표본기업들을 훈련과 시험용으로 구분하여 분석한 결과는 전체적으로 재무/비재무적 지표를 고려한 인공신경망기법의 예측적중률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 로지스틱회귀분석의 재무적 지표모형은 훈련, 시험용이 84.45%, 85.10%인 반면, 재무/비재무적 지표모형은 84.45%, 85.08%로서 거의 동일한 예측적중률을 가졌으나 인공신경망기법 분석에서는 재무적 지표모형이 92.23%, 85.10%인 반면, 재무/비재무적 지표모형에서는 91.12%, 88.06%로서 향상된 예측적 중률을 나타내었다.(ⅱ) managemental and strategical learning to give information necessary to improve the making. program and policy decision making, The objectives of the study are to develop the methodology of modeling the socioeconomic evaluation, and build up the practical socioeconomic evaluation model of the HAN projects including scientific and technological effects. Since the HAN projects consists of 18 subprograms, it is difficult In evaluate all the subprograms

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A Study on the Effects of Intrinsic Motivation, Extrinsic Motivation and Pre-knowledge of Office Workers on the Hybrid Start-up Intention (직장인의 내재적 동기, 외재적 동기와 사전지식이 Hybrid 창업의도에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Yun, Kyung-Ho;You, Yen-Yoo;Park, In-Chae;Park, Hyun-Sung
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2021
  • This study identified the influence of employees' hybrid start-up intention (intention to start a business while maintaining a job) on the employees' self-determination motivation (intrinsic motivation, extrinsic motivation) and prior knowledge through the Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB). We used a PLS-SEM called SmartPLS 3.0 for 126 valid samples collected by judgement extraction for office workers throughout June 13, 2020 to July 3, 2020, and empirically evaluated the measurement model (internal consistency reliability, convergent and discriminant validity) and the structural model (multicollinearity, determination coefficient, effect size, predictive relevance, etc.). Only the intrinsic motivation for realizing the hybrid start-up goal of office workers had a significant impact on the hybrid start-up attitude and subjective norms, and the prior knowledge of hybrid start-up had a significant impact on the hybrid start-up desire and the hybrid start-up intention. In order to induce hybrid start-ups for workers with unstable employment, we need systems and programs that can inspire employees with intrinsic motivation and knowledge about hybrid start-up, so follow-up researches are necessary to analyze about government systems and consulting support that can promote hybrid start-up.

An Analysis on the Yield Curves for Active Bond Managements (적극적 채권운용전략을 위한 수익률곡선 분석)

  • Jeong, Hee-Joon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.1-31
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    • 2008
  • Before the financial crisis in 1997, Korean bond markets had been those of corporate bonds with relatively high market yield. During the period, most of major institutional investors tend to utilize passive strategies such as buying and holding. After the crisis, however, they could not help choosing active bond management strategies because of lowed yield level and intensified competition among the financial institutions. This study is forced on the yield curve, which is the reflection of all information on the bond investment environments. The study also make analysis on the major economic and securities market factors and its structural relationship with the shape of the curve such as level, curvature and slope. For these purposes, an empirical model based on the Nelson-Siegel Model is estimated with the data during $1999{\sim}2006$. Out-of-sample forecasting is also made to test the usefulness of the estimated model. In addition, the dependent variables which are the estimates of level and slope are estimated on the macro variables and securities market variables. VAR and SUR models are used for the estimation. Estimation results show that level and slope of the yield curve are influenced by the target call rate change, exchange rate change rate, inflation rate. These results provide practical implications for the active managements in the overall treasury bond markets.

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Characteristics of Growth and Development of Empirical Stand Yield Model on Pinus densiflora in Central Korea (중부지방소나무의 생장특성 및 경험적 임분수확모델 개발)

  • Jeon, Ju Hyeon;Son, Yeong Mo;Kang, Jin Taek
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.2
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to construct a empirical yield table for Pinus densiflora in real forest. Since existing normal yield tables have been derived by studying and analyzing communities in ideal environment for tree growth, those tables provide more over-estimated values than ones from real forest. Because of this, there are some difficulties to apply the tables to empirical forest except for normal forest. In this study, therefore, we estimated stand growth for real forest on P. densiflora as the representative species of conifers. We used 1,957 sample plot data of P. densiflora in central Korea from National Forest Inventory (NFI) system, and analyzed through estimation, recovery and prediction in order by using Weibull function as a diameter distribution model. Weilbull and Schumacher models were applied for estimating mean DBH and mean basel area and it was found that the site index for P. densiflora in central Korea ranges from 8 to 14 at reference age 30. According to site 12 in the stand yield table, the Mean Annual Increment (MAI) of P. densiflora was $4.42m^3/ha$ at 30 years of age. Compared to existing volume table constructed before, it is showed that MAI of this study were lower. According to the paired t-test that is conducted with the gap of volume values between normal forest and real forest by site index and age, the P-value was less than 0.001 which is recognized to have a statistically significant difference. Based on the results in this study, it is considered to be helpful for practical management and management policy on P. densiflora in central Korea.

Soft tissue change of the midface in skeletal class III orthognathic surgery patients (골격성 III급 부정교합자에서 상악골 전진술을 동반한 양악 수술 시 중안면 연조직 형태의 변화)

  • Jung, Jong-Hyun;Kim, Seong-Sik;Son, Woo-Sung;Park, Soo-Byung
    • The korean journal of orthodontics
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.83-94
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The first objective of this study was to compare the upper midface morpholgy, focusing on the soft tissues, between skeletal Class III maloccusion patients with midfacial depression and the norm. The second objective was to estimate and analyze the change in the upper midface soft tissues following surgical correction with maxillary advancement by Lefort I osteotomy and mandibular setback by bilateral sagittal split osteotomy (BSSRO). Methods: The samples consisted of 34 adult patients (15 males and 12 females) with an average age of 21 years, who had severe anteroposterior discrepancy with midfacial depression. These patients had received presurgical orthodontic treatment and surgical treatment which consisted of simultaneous Lefort I osteotomy and BSSRO. Results: The correlation coefficient between changes in maxillary advancement and changes in Or' (soft tissue orbitale) was 0.599 (p < 0.05). Change in maxillary plane angle and vertical change of the maxilla were not correlated with the change in Or' (p < 0.05). The ratio of soft tissue change in Or' to maxillary advancement was 43.57 %, and 81.54 % in Sn. Regression equations between maxillary movement and Or' were devised. The $r^2$ value was 0.476. Conclusions: The majority of measurements in the upper midface in skeletal Class III maloccusions when compared to the norm, showed significant differences. In Class III malocclusion with midfacial depression, maxillary advancement produces soft tissue change in the upper midface.

Factors Influencing Character of Nursing Students (간호대학생의 인성에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • Nam, Soung-Mi;Park, Jeong-Sook;Shin, Eun-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.8
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with character of nursing students using ecological theory. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted with 296 nursing students. Collected data from self report questionnaires were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA and multiple regression with SPSS WIN 21.0. The Results of this study were as follows. A total of 2 models were examined according to individual, microsystem in ecological system theory. In the first model including individual factors, positive emotion, communication ability were significant factors explain character of nursing students. In the second model adding micro system factors family strength and major satisfaction found to be significant factors. The prediction factors of nursing student' character were communication ability (${\beta}=.431$, p<.001), major satisfaction (${\beta}=.310$, p<.001) and family strength (${\beta}=.176$, p<.001). The explanation power was 55.6%. These results showed that factors affecting character of nursing students are communication ability, major satisfaction, and family strength. Therefore, we suggest to develop various character education programs considering these factors.

The Development and Application of the Officetel Price Index in Seoul Based on Transaction Data (실거래가를 이용한 서울시 오피스텔 가격지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.33-45
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    • 2021
  • Due to recent changes in government policy, officetels have received attention as alternative assets, along with the uplift of office and apartment prices in Seoul. However, the current officetel price indexes use small-size samples and, thus, there is a critique on their accuracy. They rely on valuation prices which lag the market trend and do not properly reflect the volatile nature of the property market, resulting in 'smoothing'. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to create the officetel price index using transaction data. The data, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport from 2005 to 2020, includes sales prices and rental prices - Jeonsei and monthly rent (and their combinations). This study employed a repeat sales model for sales, jeonsei, and monthly rent indexes. It also contributes to improving conversion rates (between deposit and monthly rent) as a supplementary indicator. The main findings are as follows. First, the officetel price index and jeonsei index reached 132.5P and 163.9P, respectively, in Q4 2020 (1Q 2011=100.0P). However, the rent index was approximately below 100.0. Sales prices and jeonsei continued to rise due to high demand while monthly rent was largely unchanged due to vacancy risk. Second, the increase in the officetel sales price was lower than other housing types such as apartments and villas. Third, the employed approach has seen a potential to produce more reliable officetel price indexes reflecting high volatility compared to those indexes produced by other institutions, contributing to resolving 'smoothing'. As seen in the application in Seoul, this approach can enhance accuracy and, therefore, better assist market players to understand the market trend, which is much valuable under great uncertainties such as COVID-19 environments.

Exploration of the Multiple Structure of Relational Self and Construct Validation among Korean Adults (한국남녀의 관계적 자아의 특성: 다원적 구성요인 탐색 및 타당성 분석)

  • Ji Kyung Kim;Myoung So Kim
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2003
  • The present study was conducted to (1) explore the perceptions of Korean men and women about what is an important relationship for them and how do each gender group construe relational self, and (2) develop the scale to assess the factors of relational self and verify construct validity of the scale. 40 college students and 60 adults participated in survey and FGI (Focused Group Interview) respectively, and content analysis of their responses yielded 2 categories with 39 characteristics of relational self. The one category was named 'instrumentality' which was important to men and the other was named 'expressivity' which was important to women. The list of 39 items was administered to a nationwide sample of 1503 Korean adults to assess their construal of relational self through the 6-point Likert scale. Principal axis factor analysis showed that the two categories were unidimensional with high reliability. As a result of factor analysis on each category, a total of 9 factors were extracted. Specifically, the instrumentality consisted of factors such as utilitarianism, independence, initiativeness, self-assurance, and competence. And the factors of expressivity were empathy, passiveness, dependency, consideration. The tests of mean difference revealed that men had higher scores in most of the instrumental factors, while women had higher scores in most of the expressive factors. But there was no sex difference in the interdependent self-construal scale(Cross, 2000) which has been frequently used for measuring relational self. This is related to the Korean's collective cultural characteristics, and it was concluded that the relationship with others is very important to both Korean men and women, but the meaning and expectation of the relationship as well as the method for its preservation are different to each sex group. In addition, the correlation analyses indicated that the feminity score was positively correlated with the expressiveness while the masculinity score was positively correlated with instrumentality. This result implicated the differences of relational self among Korean people were related to the socialization process of each sex, i.e., sex role identity. Finally, limitations of this study and the directions for future research were discussed.

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Leukocyte count and hypertension in the health screening data of some rural and urban residents (일부 농촌과 도시의 건강선별조사 자료로 본 백혈구수와 고혈압과의 관계)

  • Lee, Choong-Won;Yoon, Nung-Ki;Lee, Sung-Kwan
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.24 no.3 s.35
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    • pp.363-372
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    • 1991
  • We used the health screening data of some rural and urban residents to examine the cross-sectional association between leukocyte count and hypertension. The 206 male and 203 female rural residents were selected by multi-stage cluster sampling method in Kyungsan-Kun area of Kyungbuk province in 1985 and 600 urban residents were selected by the same sampling method as the rural residents in Daegu city of the same province in 1986 compatible with age-sex distribution of Daegu city of 1985 census, but of whom 384 actually responded. The rest of 600 were replaced by age and sex with those who were members of the medical insurance plan visiting the health management department of the university hospital to get the biannual preventive medical checkups. Excluded in the analysis were those having hypertensive history, diseases and extreme outlying values of the screening tests, leaving 373 rural and 571 urban residents. Leukocyte count was measured with ELT-8 Laser shadow method and the unit $cells/mm^3$, Blood pressures were determined with an aneroid sphygmomanometer with pre-standardized method and hypertensives were defined as those showing systolic blood pressure more than 140mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure more than 90mmHg. Total residents pooled (N=944) showed a significant difference between hypertensives and normotensives ($6965.93{\pm}1997.01\;vs\;6490.61{\pm}1941.32,\;P=0.00$) and in rural residents was noted the similar significant difference (P=0.03). None of significant differences were noted in any stratum stratified by residency and sex. Compared to the lowest quintile of WBC, 2/5 quintile showed odds ratio 0.99 (95% Confidence interval, Ci 0.62-1.59), 3/5 quintile 1.41 (95% CI 0.90-2.21), 4/5 quintile 1.76 (95% CI. 1.14-2.72), and highest quintile 1.80 (1.15-2.82) in the total residents. Likelihood ratio test for linear trend for it indicated a significant trend ($X^2_{trend}=5.53,\;df=1,\;P<0.05$). There were no other significant odds ratios compared to the lowest quintile of WBC in strata stratified by residency and sex. The odds ratios in total residents which had showed significant odds ratios became nonsignificant and of reduced magnitude after controlling age, frequency of smoking and drinking with multiple logistic. regression. In each stratum, it changed magnitudes of odds ratios slightly and unstably. None of the trend tests showed any significant trend. These results suggest that the Friedman et al's finding of association between leukocyte count and hypertension may be due to an statistical type I error resulting from the data dredging in an exploratory study, in which more than 800 variables were screened as possible predictors of hypertension.

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