• Title/Summary/Keyword: 포아송 분포

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A Study on the estimation of traffic congestion for Pyeongtaek (Asan) port development (평택(아산)항 개발에 따른 교통혼잡도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kuk, Seung-Gi;Kim, Se-Won;Kim, Jeong-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.191-195
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    • 2005
  • The port entry system of the inner harbor in Pyeongtaek (Asan) was planned as lock-gate in 'Master plan project on port planning in Asan industry base(1990)', but was changed to tidal harbor in 'Project maintaining Master Plan for comprehensive development of Pyeongtaek (Asan) port(2001)'. Accordingly, southern sea bank constructed under the lower part of Seohae-bridge will be removed so that inbound/outbound vessels for the inner harbor can navigate at all times. However, in the view of the safety on passing through the lower of Seohae-bridge, navigating conditions for the inner harbor will be restricted in the single-way of 50,000 DWT vessel and the two-day of vessel less than 30,000 DWT. Therefore, this study carried out the estimation of traffic congestion arising from these vessels with above restrictions after supposing annual inbound/outboubd vessel's numbers for loading and unloading cargo surveyed on the inner harbor.

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Interpretation of Geophysical and Engineering Geology Data from a Test Site for Geological Field Trip in Jeungpyung, Chungbuk (충북 증평 지질학습장 시험부지에 대한 물리탐사 및 지질공학 자료의 해석)

  • Kim, Kwan-Soo;Yun, Hyun-Seok;Sa, Jin-Hyeon;Seo, Yong-Seok;Kim, Ji-Soo
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.339-352
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    • 2016
  • The best way of investigating the physical and mechanical properties of subsurface materials is the combined interpretation of data from borehole geophysical surveys and geotechnical experiments with rock samples. In this study two surface seismic surveys with refraction and surface-wave method are alternatively conducted for downhole seismic surveys in test site for geological field trip in Jeungpyung, Chungbuk. P- and S-wave velocity structures are delineated by refraction and MASW (multichannel analysis of shear waves) methods, respectively. Possion's ratio section, reconstructed from P- and S-wave velocities, is correlated to the outcrop geological features consisting of reddish sedimentary rock, gray volcanic rock, and joints/fractures. In addition, rock samples representative for reddish sedimentary and gray volcanic features are geotechnically analyzed to provide physical, mechanical properties, and elastic modulus. Dynamic elastic moduli estimated from geophysical data is found to be higher than the one from geotechnical data. Reddish sedimentary rock characterized with low porosity and moisture content corresponds to the zone of low electrical resistivities and their small variations in the resistivity sections between the rainy and dry days. This trend suggests that the weathered gray volcanic rock and the nearby fractures with higher low porosity and moisture content are interpreted to be good carrier especially in rainy season.

Text Filtering using Iterative Boosting Algorithms (반복적 부스팅 학습을 이용한 문서 여과)

  • Hahn, Sang-Youn;Zang, Byoung-Tak
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.270-277
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    • 2002
  • Text filtering is a task of deciding whether a document has relevance to a specified topic. As Internet and Web becomes wide-spread and the number of documents delivered by e-mail explosively grows the importance of text filtering increases as well. The aim of this paper is to improve the accuracy of text filtering systems by using machine learning techniques. We apply AdaBoost algorithms to the filtering task. An AdaBoost algorithm generates and combines a series of simple hypotheses. Each of the hypotheses decides the relevance of a document to a topic on the basis of whether or not the document includes a certain word. We begin with an existing AdaBoost algorithm which uses weak hypotheses with their output of 1 or -1. Then we extend the algorithm to use weak hypotheses with real-valued outputs which was proposed recently to improve error reduction rates and final filtering performance. Next, we attempt to achieve further improvement in the AdaBoost's performance by first setting weights randomly according to the continuous Poisson distribution, executing AdaBoost, repeating these steps several times, and then combining all the hypotheses learned. This has the effect of mitigating the ovefitting problem which may occur when learning from a small number of data. Experiments have been performed on the real document collections used in TREC-8, a well-established text retrieval contest. This dataset includes Financial Times articles from 1992 to 1994. The experimental results show that AdaBoost with real-valued hypotheses outperforms AdaBoost with binary-valued hypotheses, and that AdaBoost iterated with random weights further improves filtering accuracy. Comparison results of all the participants of the TREC-8 filtering task are also provided.

Optimal Release Problems based on a Stochastic Differential Equation Model Under the Distributed Software Development Environments (분산 소프트웨어 개발환경에 대한 확률 미분 방정식 모델을 이용한 최적 배포 문제)

  • Lee Jae-Ki;Nam Sang-Sik
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.31 no.7A
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    • pp.649-658
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    • 2006
  • Recently, Software Development was applied to new-approach methods as a various form : client-server system and web-programing, object-orient concept, distributed development with a network environments. On the other hand, it be concerned about the distributed development technology and increasing of object-oriented methodology. These technology is spread out the software quality and improve of software production, reduction of the software develop working. Futures, we considered about the distributed software development technique with a many workstation. In this paper, we discussed optimal release problem based on a stochastic differential equation model for the distributed Software development environments. In the past, the software reliability applied to quality a rough guess with a software development process and approach by the estimation of reliability for a test progress. But, in this paper, we decided to optimal release times two method: first, SRGM with an error counting model in fault detection phase by NHPP. Second, fault detection is change of continuous random variable by SDE(stochastic differential equation). Here, we decide to optimal release time as a minimum cost form the detected failure data and debugging fault data during the system test phase and operational phase. Especially, we discussed to limitation of reliability considering of total software cost probability distribution.

Freeway Crash Frequency Model Development Based on the Road Section Segmentation by Using Vehicle Speeds (차량 속도를 이용한 도로 구간분할에 따른 고속도로 사고빈도 모형 개발 연구)

  • Hwang, Gyeong-Seong;Choe, Jae-Seong;Kim, Sang-Yeop;Heo, Tae-Yeong;Jo, Won-Beom;Kim, Yong-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.151-159
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents a research result that was performed to develop a more accurate freeway crash prediction model than existing models. While the existing crash models only focus on developing crash relationships associated with highway geometric conditions found on a short section of a crash site, this research applies a different approach considering the upstream highway geometric conditions as well. Theoretically, crashes occur while motorists are in motion, and particularly at freeways vehicle speed at one specific point is very sensitive to upstream geometric conditions. Therefore, this is a reasonable approach. To form the analysis data base, this research gathers the geometric conditions of the West Seaside Freeway 269.3 km and six years crash data ranging 2003-2008 for these freeway sections. As a result, it is found that crashes fit well into Negative Binomial Distribution, and, based on the developed model, total number of crashes is inversely proportional to highway curve length and radius. Contrarily, crash occurrences are proportional to tangent length. This result is different from existing crash study results, and it seems to be resulted from this research assumption that a crash is influenced greatly by upstream geometric conditions. Also, this research provides the expected effects on crash occurrences of the length of downgrade sections, speed camera placements, and the on- and off- ramp presences. It is expected that this research result is useful for doing more reasonable highway designs and safety audit analysis, and applying the same research approach to national roads and other major roads in urban areas is recommended.

Evaluation of extreme rainfall estimation obtained from NSRP model based on the objective function with statistical third moment (통계적 3차 모멘트 기반의 목적함수를 이용한 NSRP 모형의 극치강우 재현능력 평가)

  • Cho, Hemie;Kim, Yong-Tak;Yu, Jae-Ung;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.7
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    • pp.545-556
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    • 2022
  • It is recommended to use long-term hydrometeorological data for more than the service life of the hydraulic structures and water resource planning. For the purpose of expanding rainfall data, stochastic simulation models, such as Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (BLRP) and Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse (NSRP) models, have been widely used. The optimal parameters of the model can be estimated by repeatedly comparing the statistical moments defined through a combination of parameters of the probability distribution in the optimization context. However, parameter estimation using relatively small observed rainfall statistics corresponds to an ill-posed problem, leading to an increase in uncertainty in the parameter estimation process. In addition, as shown in previous studies, extreme values are underestimated because objective functions are typically defined by the first and second statistical moments (i.e., mean and variance). In this regard, this study estimated the parameters of the NSRP model using the objective function with the third moment and compared it with the existing approach based on the first and second moments in terms of estimation of extreme rainfall. It was found that the first and second moments did not show a significant difference depending on whether or not the skewness was considered in the objective function. However, the proposed model showed significantly improved performance in terms of estimation of design rainfalls.

Directional Variation of Apparent Elastic Constants and Associated Constraints on Elastic Constants in Transversely Isotropic Rocks (횡등방성 암석에서 겉보기 탄성정수의 방향성 변화와 탄성정수 제약조건)

  • Youn-Kyou Lee
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.150-168
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    • 2023
  • The anisotropic behavior of rocks is primarily attributed to the directional arrangement of rock-forming minerals and the distribution characteristics of microcracks. Notably, sedimentary and metamorphic rocks often exhibit distinct transverse isotropy in terms of their strength and deformation characteristics. Consequently, it is crucial to gain accurate insights into the deformation and failure characteristics of transversely isotropic rocks during rock mechanics design processes. The deformation of such rocks is described by five independent elastic constants, which are determined through laboratory testing. In this study, the characteristics of the directional variation of apparent elastic constants in transversely isotropic rocks were investigated using experimental data reported in the literature. To achieve this, the constitutive equation proposed by Mehrabadi & Cowin was introduced to calculate the apparent elastic constants more efficiently and systematically in a rotated Cartesian coordinate system. Four transversely isotropic rock types from the literature were selected, and the influence of changes in the orientation of the weak plane on the variations of the apparent elastic modulus, apparent shear modulus, and apparent Poisson's ratio was analyzed. Based on the investigation, a new constraint on the elastic constants has been proposed. If the proposed constraint is satisfied, the directional variation of the apparent elastic constants in transversely isotropic rocks aligns with intuitive predictions of their tendencies.

Comparative Study on the Estimation Methods of Traffic Crashes: Empirical Bayes Estimate vs. Observed Crash (교통사고 추정방법 비교 연구: 경험적 베이즈 추정치 vs. 관측교통사고건수)

  • Shin, Kangwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.5D
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    • pp.453-459
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    • 2010
  • In the study of traffic safety, it is utmost important to obtain more reliable estimates of the expected crashes for a site (or a segment). The observed crashes have been mainly used as the estimate of the expected crashes in Korea, while the empirical Bayes (EB) estimates based on the Poisson-gamma mixture model have been used in the USA and several European countries. Although numerous studies have used the EB method for estimating the expected crashes and/or the effectiveness of the safety countermeasures, no past studies examine the difference in the estimation errors between the two estimates. Thus, this study compares the estimation errors of the two estimates using a Monte Carlo simulation study. By analyzing the crash dataset at 3,000,000 simulated sites, this study reveals that the estimation errors of the EB estimates are always less than those of the observed crashes. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate the EB method into the traffic safety research guideline in Korea. However, the results show that the differences in the estimation errors between the two estimates decrease as the uncertainty of the prior distribution increases. Consequently, it is recommended that the EB method be used with reliable hyper-parameter estimates after conducting a comprehensive examination on the estimated negative binomial model.

Pulmonary Resection in the Treatment of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (다제 내성 폐결핵환자의 폐절제술에 관한 연구)

  • Kwon, Eun-Soo;Ha, Hyun-Cheol;Hwang, Su-Hee;Lee, Hung-Yol;Park, Seung-Kyu;Song, Sun-Dae
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.1143-1153
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    • 1998
  • Background : Recent outbreaks of pulmonary disease due to drug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis have resulted in significant morbidity and mortality in patients worldwide. We reviewed our experience to evaluate the effects of pulmonary resection on the management of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Method : A retrospective review was performed of 41 patients undergoing pulmonary resection for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis between January 1993 and December 1997. We divided these into 3 groups according to the radiologic findings : (1) patients who have reasonably localized lesion (Localized Lesion Group ; LLG) (2) patients who have cavitary lesions after pulmonary resection on chest roentgenogram (Remained Cavity Group : RCG) (3) patients who have Remained infiltrative lesions postoperatively (Remained infiltrative group : RIG). We evaluated the negative conversion rate after resection and overall response rate of the groups. Then they were compared with the results of the chemotherapy on the multi drug-resistant tuberculosis which has been outcome by Goble et al. Goble et al reported that negative conversion rate was 65% and overall response rate, 56% over a mean period of 5.1 months. Results : Seventy five point six percent were men and 24.4% women with a median age of 31 years (range, 16 to 60 years). Although the patients were treated preoperatively with multidrug regimens in an effort to reduce the mycobacterial burden, 22 of 41 were still sputum culture positive at the time of surgery. 20 of 22 patients(90.9%, p<0.01) responded which is defined as negative sputum cultures within 2 months postoperative. Of 26 patients with the sufficient follow up data, 19 have Remained sputum culture negative for a mean duration of 25.7 months (73.1%, p<0.05). The bulk of the disease was manifest in one lung, but lesser amounts of contralateral disease were demonstrated in 15, consisted of 8 in RIG and 7 in RCG, of 41. 12 of 12 patients (100%, p<0.01) who were sputum positive at the time of surgery in LLG converted successfully. 14 of 15 patients (93.3%, p<0.05) with the follow up have completed treatment and not relapsed for a mean period of 25. 7 months. The mean length of postoperative drug therapy of LLG was 12.2 months. In RIG, postoperative negative conversion rate was 83.3% which was not significant statistically. There was a statistical significance in overall response rate (100%, p<0.05) of RIG for a mean period of 24.4 months with a mean length of postoperative chemotherapy, 11.8 months. In RCG a statistically lower overall response rate (14.3%, p<0.01) has been revealed for a mean duration of follow up, 24.2 months. A negative conversion rate of RCG was 75% which was not significant statistically. Conclusion : Surgery plays an important role in the management of patients with multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. Aggressive pulmonary resection should be performed for resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to avoid treatment failure or relapse. Especially all cavitary lesions on preoperative chest roentgenogram should be resected completely. If all of them could not be resected perfectly, you should not open the thorax.

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A Study on Ten Years Trend of Cancer Incidence and Evaluation of Quality of Cancer Registration in Daejeon Metropolitan City and Chungcheongnam-Do, Korea: 2000-2009 (대전·충남지역의 암 발생률 추이와 질적 평가에 대한 연구 -2000년부터 2009년까지 10년간 자료를 중심으로-)

  • Park, Un-Je;Nam, Hae-Seong;Kim, Kwang-Hwan;Park, Chang-Soo;Kwon, In-Sun;Kim, Jeong-A;Lee, Tae-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.1234-1244
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    • 2013
  • This study aimed to analyze the ten years cancer incidence based on diagnosis years 2000-2009, and to evaluate the quality of cancer registry in Daejeon City and Chungcheongnam-Do, Korea. Crude incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) in these two regions were compared, and validity of incidence data was assessed by three indicators; age unknown (Age UNK%), histological verification (HV%), and death certificate only (DCO%). Mortality/incidence ratio (M/I ratio) was used to evaluate completeness of incidence data. Incidence rate differences were assessed using Poission distribution and calculated their 95% confidence interval of ASR, and those by sex, age, and region were compared by incidence rate curve. As a result, the highest cancer site during 2000-2009 was stomach in both regions, and incidence prpportion were 18.8% in Daejeon, 21.5% in Chungnam. The overall cancer incidence was higher in males than in females, and ASR of total cancer in Daejeon increased 0.6% (from 322.1 to 323.9 per 100,000) for men and 60.3% (from 203.9 to 326.8) for women, that in Chungnam increased 14.3% (from 294.7 to 336.9) for men and 70.7% (from 156.5 to 267.1) for women. The Age UNK% during 2000-2009 were 0.0% in both regions. MV% for men was increased from 71.8% to 88.5% and that for women was increased from 78.1% to 93.2%. DCO% for men was decreased from 6.4% to 0.7% and that for women was decreased from 5.4% to 0.8%. M/I ratio was ranged from 15.3% to 62.1% and can be evaluated fairy good registration.