• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.261-274
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• 1997

Most of the data sets to which the conventional discriminant rules have been applied contain only those which belong to one and only one class among the classes of interest. However the extension of the bivalence to multivlaence like Fuzzy concepts strongly influence the traditional view that an object must belong to only class. Thus the goal of this paper is to develop new discriminant rules which can handle the data each object of which may belong to moer than two classes with certain degrees of belongings. A calibration model is used for the relationship between the feature vector of an object and the degree of belongings and a Bayesian inference is made with the Metropolis algorithm on the degree of belongings when a feature vector of an object whose membership is unknown is given. An evalution criterion is suggested for the rules developed in this paper and comparision study is carried using two training data sets.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2012.06a
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• pp.240-241
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to propose a development strategy and an activation plan of port hinterland. To do this, we design a Delphi/Fuzzy-AHP model using Delphi and Fuzzy-AHP.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.326-326
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• 2021

장기간에 걸쳐 넓은 지역에 대해 발생하는 가뭄을 예측하기위해 많은 학자들의 기술적, 학술적 시도가 있어왔다. 본 연구에서는 복잡한 시계열을 가진 가뭄을 전망하는 방법 중 시나리오에 기반을 둔 가뭄전망 방법과 실시간으로 가뭄을 예측하는 비시나리오 기반의 방법 등을 이용하여 미래 가뭄전망을 실시했다. 시나리오에 기반을 둔 가뭄전망 방법으로는, 3개월 GCM(General Circulation Model) 예측 결과를 바탕으로 2009년도 PDSI(Palmer Drought Severity Index) 가뭄지수를 산정하여 가뭄심도에 대한 단기예측을 실시하였다. 또, 통계학적 방법과 물리적 모델(Physical model)에 기반을 둔 확정론적 수치해석 방법을 이용하여 비시나리오 기반 가뭄을 예측했다. 기존 가뭄을 통계학적 방법으로 예측하기 위해서 시도된 대표적인 방법으로 ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 모델의 예측에 대한 한계를 극복하기위해 서포트 벡터 회귀(support vector regression, SVR)와 웨이블릿(wavelet neural network) 신경망을 이용해 SPI를 측정하였다. 최적모델구조는 RMSE(root mean square error), MAE(mean absolute error) 및 R(correlation Coefficient)를 통해 선정하였고, 1-6개월의 선행예보 시간을 갖고 가뭄을 전망하였다. 그리고 SPI를 이용하여, 마코프 연쇄(Markov chain) 및 대수선형모델(log-linear model)을 적용하여 SPI기반 가뭄예측의 정확도를 검증하였으며, 터키의 아나톨리아(Anatolia) 지역을 대상으로 뉴로퍼지모델(Neuro-Fuzzy)을 적용하여 1964-2006년 기간의 월평균 강수량과 SPI를 바탕으로 가뭄을 예측하였다. 가뭄 빈도와 패턴이 불규칙적으로 변하며 지역별 강수량의 양극화가 심화됨에 따라 가뭄예측의 정확도를 높여야 하는 요구가 커지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 복잡하고 비선형성으로 이루어진 가뭄 패턴을 기상학적 가뭄의 정도를 나타내는 표준강수증발지수(SPEI, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)인 월SPEI와 일SPEI를 기계학습모델에 적용하여 예측개선 모형을 개발하고자 한다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.70-79
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• 2012

The Korean Government recently has been focused on strengthening competitiveness of order and stimulating construction market in the international construction industry. It has planned to extend the ODPs (overseas development projects) in order to diversifying the international construction market of which is domestic construction companies, placing too much emphasis on plant projects of the Middle East. However, literature review of risk analysis in the ODPs shows that the number of case study is several. Therefore, Authors asserted the necessity of risk analysis in the ODPs. The purpose of this study is to suggest a methodology that find KRFs (key risk factors) in the ODPs and analyze them, using AHP and Fuzzy theory. As a result, the 37 KRFs are selected and explained characteristics of them. A future direction of this study is to suggest a risk management model in the ODPs and prove feasibility of it.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.382-382
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• 2011

최근의 극심한 기상이변으로 인하여 발생되는 유출량의 예측에 관한 사항은 치수 이수는 물론 방재의 측면에서도 역시 매우 중요한 관심사로 부각되고 있다. 강우-유출 관계는 유역의 수많은 시 공간적 변수들에 의해 영향을 받기 때문에 매우 복잡하여 예측하기 힘든 요소이며, 과거에는 추계학적 예측모형이나 확정론적 예측모형 혹은 경험적 모형 등을 사용하여 유출량을 예측하였으나 최근에는 인공신경망과 퍼지모형 그리고 유전자 알고리즘과 같은 인공지능기반의 모형들이 많이 사용되고 있다. 하지만 유출량을 예측하고자 할 때 학습자료 및 검정자료로써 사용되는 유출량은 수위-유량 관계곡선식으로부터 구하는 경우가 대부분으로 이는 이렇게 유도된 유출량의 경우 오차가 크기 때문에 그 신뢰성에 문제가 있을 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 수위를 직접 예측함으로써 이러한 오차의 문제점을 극복 하고자 한다. Neuro-Fuzzy 모형은 과거자료의 입 출력 패턴에서 정보를 추출하여 지식으로 보유하고, 이를 근거로 새로운 상황에 대한 해답을 제시하도록 하는 인공지능분야의 학습기법으로 인간이 과거의 경험과 훈련으로 지식을 축적하듯이 시스템의 입 출력에 의하여 소속함수를 최적화함으로서 모형의 구조를 스스로 조직화한다. 따라서 수학적 알고리즘의 적용이 어려운 강우와 유출관계를 하천유역이라는 시스템에서 발생된 신호체계의 입 출력패턴으로 간주하고 인간의 사고과정을 근거로 추론과정을 거쳐 수문계의 예측에 적용할 수 있을 것이다. 유전자 알고리즘은 적자생존의 생물학 원리에 바탕을 둔 최적화 기법중의 하나로 자연계의 생명체 중 환경에 잘 적응한 개체가 좀 더 많은 자손을 남길 수 있다는 자연선택 과정과 유전자의 변화를 통해서 좋은 방향으로 발전해 나간다는 자연 진화의 과정인 자연계의 유전자 메커니즘에 바탕을 둔 탐색 알고리즘이다. 즉, 자연계의 유전과 진화 메커니즘을 공학적으로 모델화함으로써 잠재적인 해의 후보들을 모아 군집을 형성한 뒤 서로간의 교배 혹은 변이를 통해서 최적 해를 찾는 계산 모델이다. 이러한 유전자 알고리즘은 전역 샘플링을 중심으로 한 수법으로 해 공간상에서 유전자의 개수만큼 복수의 탐색점을 설정할 뿐만 아니라 교배와 돌연변이 등으로 좁아지는 탐색점 바깥의 영역으로 탐색을 확장할 수 있기 때문에 지역해에 빠질 위험성이 크게 줄어든다. 따라서 예측과 패턴인식에 강한 뉴로퍼지 모형의 해 탐색방법을 유전자 알고리즘을 사용한다면 보다 정확한 해를 찾는 것이 가능할 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 선행우량 및 상류의 수위자료로부터 하류의 단시간 수위예측에 관해 연구하였으며, 이를 위해 유전자 알고리즘을 이용항여 소속함수를 최적화 시키는 형태의 Neuro-Fuzzy모형에 대하여 연구하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.148-153
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• 2009

Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is one of most widely used methods in modem engineering system to investigate potential failure modes and its severity upon the system. FMECA evaluates criticality and severity of each failure mode and visualize the risk level matrix putting those indices to column and row variable respectably. Generally, those indices are determined subjectively by experts and operators. However, this process has no choice but to include uncertainty. In this paper, a method for eliciting expert opinions considering its uncertainty is proposed to evaluate the criticality and severity. In addition, a fuzzy expert system is constructed in order to determine the crisp value of risk level for each failure mode. Finally, an illustrative example system is analyzed in the case study. The results are worth considering while deciding the proper policies for each component of the system.

• Archives of design research
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• v.19 no.2 s.64
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• pp.81-90
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• 2006

Pedestrians perceive differently from the sideway views or the exteriors of the buildings on the way to their destinations. Therefore, the navigation experience can become much different when the path was chosen based on the individual's preference from it is not. By focusing on the effects of the individual pedestrian' path choice on their navigation, this paper presents an algorithm designed for pedestrians to be able to explore their preferred path and proposes a prototype of navigation system based on the algorithm. The navigation support system searches for the best path upon their individual preferences and information of the destination. The system provides the process of retrieving the final path via the pedestrian-support system interaction. The path retrieval is peformed with the combinational matrix of keywords that are formulates Fuzzy theory from the correlations between the terms describing preferences used in the path preference survey. This paper presents the potentials of the path finding method tailored to pedestrians' preferences by a simulation of the proposed path retrieval algorithm.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.273-280
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• 2003

The purpose of this study is to identify and evaluate the competitiveness of ports in ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Nations), which plays a leading role in basing the hub of international logistics strategies as a countermeasure in changes of international logistics environments. This region represents most severe competition among Mega hub ports in the world in terms of container cargo throughput at the onset of the 21 st century. The research method in this study accounted for overlapping between attributes, and introduced the HFP method that can perform mathematical operations. The scope of this study was strictly confined to the ports of ASEAN. which cover the top 100 of 350 container ports that were presented in Containerization International Yearbook 2002 with reference to container throughput. The results of this study show Singapore in the number one position. Even compared with major ports in Korea (after getting comparative ratings and applying the same data and evaluation structure), the number one position still goes to Singapore and then Busan(2) and Manila(2), followed by Port Klang(4), Tanjugn Priok(5), Tanjung Perak(6), Bangkok(7), Inchon(8), Laem Chabang(9) and Penang(9). In terms of the main contributions of this study, it is the first empirical study to apply the combined attributes of detailed and representative attributes into the advanced HFP model which was enhanced by the KJ method to evaluate the port competitiveness in ASEAN. Up-to-now, none have comprehensively conducted researches with sophisticated port methodology that has discussed a variety of changes in port development and terminal transfers of major shipping lines. Moreover, through the comparative evaluation between major ports in Korea and ASEAN, the presentation of comparative competitiveness for Korea ports is a great achievement in this study. In order to reinforce this study, it needs further compensative research, including cost factors which could not be applied to modeling the subject ports by lack of consistently qualified in ASEAN.

• Archives of design research
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• v.20 no.3 s.71
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• pp.203-214
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• 2007

This study proposes an information retrieval method reflecting the user's preferences based on the fuzzy set theory to develop information contents which support pedestrian's navigation. Firstly, the research evaluated subjects' preferences on commercial spaces set to a hypothetical destination. Also it surveyed the causal relationship between the visual characteristics and the emotional characteristics to propose methods of Navigation Knowledge Base (NKB). The NKB was composed of three elements; 1. the correlation model between emotional characteristics, 2. the causal relationship between visual characteristics and emotional characteristics, 3. the transformation model between visual characteristics and the physical characteristics. Secondly, this study classified the pedestrian's destination search into 4 types with his or her preferences and the time conditions limited during navigation. For each type it presented the Destination Search Algorithm (DSA). Finally, the research simulated the destination search in 4 navigation types using NKB and DSA and verified the availability of the information retrieval method reflecting pedestrian's preferences. In conclusion, the proposed information search method will be applied to reflect the user's preferences to develop information appliances.

• KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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• v.2 no.5
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• pp.341-346
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• 2013

In this paper, we propose a rule extraction method using a modified Fuzzy Min-Max (FMM) neural network. The suggested method supplements the hyperbox definition with a frequency factor of feature values in the learning data set. We have defined a relevance factor between features and pattern classes. The proposed model can solve the ambiguity problem without using the overlapping test process and the contraction process. The hyperbox membership function based on the fuzzy partitions is defined for each dimension of a pattern class. The weight values are trained by the feature range and the frequency of feature values. The excitatory features and the inhibitory features can be classified by the proposed method and they can be used for the rule generation process. From the experiments of sign language recognition, the proposed method is evaluated empirically.