• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.520-526
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• 2016

This study aims to develop a distress prediction model, in order to evaluate the distress prediction power for first-class hotels and to calculate the average financial ratio in the Seoul area by using the financial ratios of hotels in 2015. The sample data was collected from 19 first-class hotels in Seoul and the financial ratios extracted from 14 of these 19 hotels. The results show firstly that the seven financial ratios, viz. the current ratio, total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, interest coverage ratio to operating income, operating income to sales, net income to stockholders' equity, ratio of cash flows from operating activities to sales and total assets turnover, enable the top-level corporations to be discriminated from the failed corporations and, secondly, by using these seven financial ratios, a discriminant function which classifies the corporations into top-level and failed ones is estimated by linear multiple discriminant analysis. The accuracy of prediction of this discriminant capability turned out to be 87.9%. The accuracy of the estimates obtained by discriminant analysis indicates that the distress prediction model's distress prediction power is 78.95%. According to the analysis results, hotel management groups which administrate low level corporations need to focus on the classification of these seven financial ratios. Furthermore, hotel corporations have very different financial structures and failure prediction indicators from other industries. In accordance with this finding, for the development of credit evaluation systems for such hotel corporations, there is a need for systems to be developed that reflect hotel corporations' financial features.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2853-2864
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• 2018

Discriminant analysis predicts a class label of a new observation with an unknown label, using information from the existing labeled data. Hence, observed labels play a critical role in the analysis and we usually assume that these labels are correct. If the observed label contains an error, the data has label noise. Label noise can frequently occur in real data, which would affect classification performance. In order to resolve this, a comparative study was carried out using simulated data with label noise. In particular, we considered 4 different classification techniques such as LDA (linear discriminant analysis classifiers), QDA (quadratic discriminant analysis classifiers), KNN (k-nearest neighbour), and SVM (support vector machine). Then we evaluated each method via average accuracy using generated data from various scenarios. The effect of label noise was investigated through its occurrence rate and type (noise location). We confirmed that the label noise is a significant factor influencing the classification performance.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.31-52
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• 2020

This study was started to verify the preliminary(Ex-ante) discrimination power of the firm's high-activity using the 'Forward-looking' oriented technology appraisal model used in technology financing. The analytical firms are classified into the industry (manufacturing / non-manufacturing) and the age of company (initial / non-initial). High-activity SMEs are defined as those that achieve at least twice the average asset turnover ratio of the cluster. As a result of the discriminant model by applying C5.0 method, which is one of decision tree models, classification accuracy is more than 99% in all industries and the age of company, and it is confirmed that the discriminant power of the model is stable. As a result, the management expertise, capital involvement and funding capacity items were identified as a critical variable for the high-activity SMEs. In addition, the technology management capability and technology life cycle were also confirmed to be the items to determine high-activity SMEs in the manufacturing industry. Through this, it was possible to confirm some possibility of prior discrimination and policy utilization of high-activity SMEs by using technology appraisal items.

• The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-12
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• 2014

Since students' behaviors during e-learning are automatically stored in LMS(Learning Management System), the LMS log data convey the valuable information of students' engagement. The purpose of this study is to develop a prediction model of e-learning course dropout by utilizing LMS log data. Log data of 578 college students who registered e-learning courses in a traditional university were used for the logistic regression analysis. The results showed that attendance and study time were significant to predict dropout, and the model classified between dropouts and completers of e-learning courses with 96% accuracy. Furthermore, the feasibility of early detection of dropouts by utilizing the model were discussed.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2000.11a
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• pp.231-234
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• 2000

본 연구는 오랜 시간에 거쳐 축적된 고객 데이터베이스를 활용하여 스코어링 방법을 적용할 수 있는 모델링의 개발에 목적이 있다. 기존의 전통적인 스코어링 방법은 인구 통계학적인 변수나 거래 관련 횡단면적인 자료를 이용하여 우량고객과 불량고객을 구분하는 판별분석의 형태가 대부분이다. 하지만 과거 고객에 대한 실적 자료가 시계열 형태를 이루며 존재하기 때문에 이에 대한 적절한 동태적 모형을 적용은 자연스러운 확장이라고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구에서 제안하는 모형은 고객들의 실적관련 시계열 자료를 GARCH 모형에 적합하여 미래의 실적 예측과 이에 대한 표준편차를 예측하여 하위 $10\%$에 해당하는 실적 예측치를 스코어링으로 하는 새로운 방법을 소개하고자 한다. 이 경우 스코어 값이 부호를 가지게 되므로 우량고객을 구분함과 동시에 큰 음수 값을 조사하여 위험 평점도 함께 측정할 수 있어서 실무 측면에서 유용하리라고 본다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.135-140
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• 2004

Lindsay and Basu (1994)에 의해 소개된 최소차이추정량 (Minimum Disparity Estimators)들은 실제 자료 분석 도구로써 유용하다. 본 논문에서는 최소일반화음지수 차이추정량 (Minimum Generalized Negative Exponential Disparity Estimator, MGNEDE)이 최대가능도추정량 (Maximum Likelihood Estimator, MLE)와 최소가중 헬링거거리추정량 (Minimum Blended Weight Hellinger Distance Estimator, MBWHDE)에 비해 오염된 정규모형에서 효율적이고 로버스트하다는 것을 모의실험을 통하여 확인하였다. 또한 세 가지 추정량들에 의해 추정된 모수들을 이용하여 판별하였을 때 자 추정량득의 판별율을 비교함으로써 오염된 정규모형에서 MLE의 대안으로 MGNEDE와 MBWHDE를 사용할 수 있음을 보였다.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.19-33
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• 2001

Link weight analysis approach is suggested as a heuristic for selection of input nodes in artificial neural network for bankruptcy prediction. That is to analyze each input node\\\\`s link weight-absolute value of link weight between an input node and a hidden node in a well-trained neural network model. Prediction accuracy of three methods in this approach, -weak-linked-neurons elimination method, strong-linked-neurons selection method and integrated link weight model-is compared with that of decision tree and multivariate discrimination analysis. In result, the methods suggested in this study show higher accuracy than decision tree and multivariate discrimination analysis. Especially an integrated model has much higher accuracy than any individual models.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.1-15
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• 2016

This study has analyzed predication capabilities leveraging multi-variate model, logistic regression model, and artificial neural network model based on financial information of medium-small sized companies list in KOSDAQ. 83 delisted companies from 2009 to 2012 and 83 normal companies, i.e. 166 firms in total were sampled for the analysis. Modelling with training data was mobilized for 100 companies inlcuding 50 delisted ones and 50 normal ones at random out of the 166 companies. The rest of samples, 66 companies, were used to verify accuracies of the models. Each model was designed by carrying out T-test with 79 financial ratios for the last 5 years and identifying 9 significant variables. T-test has shown that financial profitability variables were major variables to predict a financial risk at an early stage, and financial stability variables and financial cashflow variables were identified as additional significant variables at a later stage of insolvency. When predication capabilities of the models were compared, for training data, a logistic regression model exhibited the highest accuracy while for test data, the artificial neural networks model provided the most accurate results. There are differences between the previous researches and this study as follows. Firstly, this study considered a time-series aspect in light of the fact that failure proceeds gradually. Secondly, while previous studies constructed a multivariate discriminant model ignoring normality, this study has reviewed the regularity of the independent variables, and performed comparisons with the other models. Policy implications of this study is that the reliability for the disclosure documents is important because the simptoms of firm's fail woule be shown on financial statements according to this paper. Therefore institutional arragements for restraing moral laxity from accounting firms or its workers should be strengthened.

• 한국지형공간정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.101-106
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• 1993

본 연구의 목적은 토지자원의 유효한 개발과 관리를 위해 원격탐사 자료 및 지상자료를 이용하여 토지 이용의 예측 모형을 정립하고 실제로 제주도 지역에 적용하여 그 실증을 거치는 것이었다. 본 토형은 계절분석(multi-date processing) 및 다중분석 (multi-file processing)기법을 채택하고 Markov의 확률 이전 계산법 및 판별 함수 (discriminant function) 계산법으로부터 합성 출현된 공간적/시간적 토지이용 투영방법을 채택하였다. 판별 함수 계산법은 토지이용 변화상의 최다 경향치를 산출하기 위해 제주도 경관 평면(landscape plane) 전지역의 각 화소(pixel)에 적용되고, 확률 이전 계산법은 특정 미래 시간 간극상에서 상이한 토지이용으로 변화하는 이들 화소의 수량을 결정한다. 본 합성 모형은 이렇게 토지이용 변화성(정성적)과 그 화소의 수량(정량적)을 결합하여 경관 평면상에서 미래의 토지이용 예측을 가능케하는 것이다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.723-738
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• 2020

In this paper, we study a method to discriminate between trend stationary and difference stationary processes. Since a crucial ingredient of this discrimination is to determine the existence of unit root, we can use a unit root testing strategy. So, we introduce a discrimination based on unit root testing and propose the method using the adaptive lasso. Our Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that the adaptive lasso improves the discrimination accuracy when the process is trend stationary, but has lower accuracy than unit root strategy where the process is difference stationary.