• Title/Summary/Keyword: 판별모델

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An Empirical Study on the Failure Prediction for KOSDAQ Firms (코스닥기업의 부실예측에 대한 실증 분석)

  • Park, Hee-Jung;Kang, Ho-Jung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.670-676
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    • 2009
  • Bankruptcy of firms in Korea can cause distress of financial institutions because these institutions have disterssed bond. Accordingly, social and economical spill-over effects by these results are very big. Even after the difficult times of IMF crisis had ended, bankruptcy of information-based small-medium companies and venture firms listed on the KOSDAQ has been continued. In this context, this study developed and adopted failure prediction models for which discriminant analysis was used. Samples of this study was 81 firms respectively for both failed and non-failed firms listed on the KOSDAQ between the year of 2000 and 2007. The results of this study are as follows. First, the accuracy of classification of the model by years was $74.5%{\sim}76.5%$, and the accuracy of classification of the mean model was $69.6%{\sim}80.4%$. Among the models, the mean model of -one year, -two years, and -three years was highest in accuracy of classification (80.4%). Second, accuracy of prediction of final model adopted on validation samples showed 85% before one year of bankruptcy. The results of this study may be significant in that the results may be used as early warning system for bankruptcy prediction of KOSDAQ firms.

Binary classification of bolts with anti-loosening coating using transfer learning-based CNN (전이학습 기반 CNN을 통한 풀림 방지 코팅 볼트 이진 분류에 관한 연구)

  • Noh, Eunsol;Yi, Sarang;Hong, Seokmoo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.651-658
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    • 2021
  • Because bolts with anti-loosening coatings are used mainly for joining safety-related components in automobiles, accurate automatic screening of these coatings is essential to detect defects efficiently. The performance of the convolutional neural network (CNN) used in a previous study [Identification of bolt coating defects using CNN and Grad-CAM] increased with increasing number of data for the analysis of image patterns and characteristics. On the other hand, obtaining the necessary amount of data for coated bolts is difficult, making training time-consuming. In this paper, resorting to the same VGG16 model as in a previous study, transfer learning was applied to decrease the training time and achieve the same or better accuracy with fewer data. The classifier was trained, considering the number of training data for this study and its similarity with ImageNet data. In conjunction with the fully connected layer, the highest accuracy was achieved (95%). To enhance the performance further, the last convolution layer and the classifier were fine-tuned, which resulted in a 2% increase in accuracy (97%). This shows that the learning time can be reduced by transfer learning and fine-tuning while maintaining a high screening accuracy.

Ex Vivo Raman Spectroscopy Measurement of a Mouse Model of Alzheimer's Disease (라만 기반 치매 모델의 뇌조직 분광 특성 측정)

  • Ko, Kwanhwi;Seo, Younghee;Im, Seongmin;Lee, Hongki;Park, Ji Young;Chang, Won Seok;Kim, Donghyun
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.331-337
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    • 2022
  • Raman spectroscopy is an optical technique that can identify molecules in a label-free manner, and is therefore heavily investigated in various areas ranging from biomedical engineering to materials science. Probe-based Raman spectroscopy can perform minimally invasive chemical analysis, and thus has potential as a real-time diagnostic tool during surgery. In this study, Raman experimentation was calibrated by examining the Raman shifts with respect to the concentrations of chemical substances. Raman signal characteristics, targeted for normal mice and cerebral tissues of the 5xFAD dementia mutant model with accumulated amyloid beta plaques, were measured and analyzed to explore the possibility of diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. The application to the diagnosis of dementia was cross-validated by measuring Raman signals of amyloid beta. The results suggest the potential of Raman spectroscopy as a diagnostic tool that may be useful in various areas of application.

Semantic Segmentation of the Habitats of Ecklonia Cava and Sargassum in Undersea Images Using HRNet-OCR and Swin-L Models (HRNet-OCR과 Swin-L 모델을 이용한 조식동물 서식지 수중영상의 의미론적 분할)

  • Kim, Hyungwoo;Jang, Seonwoong;Bak, Suho;Gong, Shinwoo;Kwak, Jiwoo;Kim, Jinsoo;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_3
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    • pp.913-924
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we presented a database construction of undersea images for the Habitats of Ecklonia cava and Sargassum and conducted an experiment for semantic segmentation using state-of-the-art (SOTA) models such as High Resolution Network-Object Contextual Representation (HRNet-OCR) and Shifted Windows-L (Swin-L). The result showed that our segmentation models were superior to the existing experiments in terms of the 29% increased mean intersection over union (mIOU). Swin-L model produced better performance for every class. In particular, the information of the Ecklonia cava class that had small data were also appropriately extracted by Swin-L model. Target objects and the backgrounds were well distinguished owing to the Transformer backbone better than the legacy models. A bigger database under construction will ensure more accuracy improvement and can be utilized as deep learning database for undersea images.

Development of Steel Composite Cable Stayed Bridge Weigh-in-Motion System using Artificial Neural Network (인공신경망을 이용한 강합성 사장교 차량하중분석시스템 개발)

  • Park, Min-Seok;Jo, Byung-Wan;Lee, Jungwhee;Kim, Sungkon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.6A
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    • pp.799-808
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    • 2008
  • The analysis of vehicular loads reflecting the domestic traffic circumstances is necessary for the development of adequate design live load models in the analysis and design of cable-supported bridges or the development of fatigue load models to predict the remaining lifespan of the bridges. This study intends to develop an ANN(artificial neural network)-based Bridge WIM system and Influence line-based Bridge WIM system for obtaining information concerning the loads conditions of vehicles crossing bridge structures by exploiting the signals measured by strain gauges installed at the bottom surface of the bridge superstructure. This study relies on experimental data corresponding to the travelling of hundreds of random vehicles rather than on theoretical data generated through numerical simulations to secure data sets for the training and test of the ANN. In addition, data acquired from 3 types of vehicles weighed statically at measurement station and then crossing the bridge repeatedly are also exploited to examine the accuracy of the trained ANN. The results obtained through the proposed ANN-based analysis method, the influence line analysis method considering the local behavior of the bridge are compared for an example cable-stayed bridge. In view of the results related to the cable-stayed bridge, the cross beam ANN analysis method appears to provide more remarkable load analysis results than the cross beam influence line method.

The Influence of IoT Technological Characteristics on Expected Achievement and Adoption Intention of SCM: On the Perspectives of Chinese Physical Supply Chain and Distribution Industry (사물인터넷(IoT) 기술특성이 SCM 기대성과 및 도입의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 중국 물류공급망 및 유통업체를 대상으로)

  • Shang Meng;Yong Ho Shin;Chul Woo Lee;Jun Ho Mun
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2017
  • The Internet of Things (IoT) analysis aims to verify the technical characteristics, performance expectations, and adoption intentions of IoT. This work refers to IoT data from foreign and domestic publications and websites as well as aims to benefit related organizations by referring to reports from agencies. The literature review summarizes the relevant theories and background of the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology. The SPSS 22.0 software and structural equation models (smart PLS 2.0) are used in the data analysis. Technical statistics analysis, reliability analysis, validity analysis, structural equation models, and statistical methods are employed to test the research hypotheses, that is, the technical characteristics of IoT will have positive effects on its performance expectations. This study introduces the characteristics and expected performance of IoT to present relevant IoT guidelines for companies that aim to adopt such technology.

The Effect of Online Multiple Channel Marketing by Device Type (디바이스 유형을 고려한 온라인 멀티 채널 마케팅 효과)

  • Hajung Shin;Kihwan Nam
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.59-78
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    • 2018
  • With the advent of the various device types and marketing communication, customer's search and purchase behavior have become more complex and segmented. However, extant research on multichannel marketing effects of the purchase funnel has not reflected the specific features of device User Interface (UI) and User Experience (UX). In this study, we analyzed the marketing channel effects of multi-device shoppers using a unique click stream dataset from global online retailers. We examined device types that activate online shopping and compared the differences between marketing channels that promote visits. In addition, we estimated the direct and indirect effects on visits and purchase revenue through customer's accumulated experience and channel conversions. The findings indicate that the same customer selects a different marketing channel according to the device selection. These results can help retailers gain a better understanding of customers' decision-making process in multi-marketing channel environment and devise the optimal strategy taking into account various device types. Our empirical analyses yield business implications based on the significant results from global big data analytics and contribute academically meaningful theoretical framework using an economic model. We also provide strategic insights attributed to the practical value of an online marketing manager.

A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.

Habitat Distribution Change Prediction of Asiatic Black Bears (Ursus thibetanus) Using Maxent Modeling Approach (Maxent 모델을 이용한 반달가슴곰의 서식지 분포변화 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Geun;Yang, DooHa;Cho, YoungHo;Song, Kyo-Hong;Oh, Jang-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2016
  • This study aims at providing basic data to objectively evaluate the areas suitable for reintroduction of the species of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in order to effectively preserve the Asiatic black bears in the Korean protection areas including national parks, and for the species restoration success. To this end, this study predicted the potential habitats in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, where there are the records of Asiatic black bears' appearances using the Maxent model and environmental variables related with climate, topography, road and land use. In addition, this study evaluated the effects of the relevant climate and environmental variables. This study also analyzed inhabitation range area suitable for Asiatic black and geographic change according to future climate change. As for the judgment accuracy of the Maxent model widely utilized for habitat distribution research of wildlife for preservation, AUC value was calculated as 0.893 (sd=0.121). This was useful in predicting Asiatic black bears' potential habitat and evaluate the habitat change characteristics according to future climate change. Compare to the distribution map of Asiatic black bears evaluated by IUCN, Habitat suitability by the Maxent model were regionally diverse in extant areas and low in the extinct areas from IUCN map. This can be the result reflecting the regional difference in the environmental conditions where Asiatic black bears inhabit. As for the environment affecting the potential habitat distribution of Asiatic black bears, inhabitation rate was the highest, according to land coverage type, compared to climate, topography and artificial factors like distance from road. Especially, the area of deciduous broadleaf forest was predicted to be preferred, in comparison with other land coverage types. Annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during the driest period were projected to affect more than temperature's annual range, and the inhabitation possibility was higher, as distance was farther from road. The reason is that Asiatic black bears are conjectured to prefer more stable area without human's intervention, as well as prey resource. The inhabitation range was predicted to be expanded gradually to the southern part of India, China's southeast coast and adjacent inland area, and Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia in the eastern coastal areas of Southeast Asia. The following areas are forecast to be the core areas, where Asiatic black bears can inhabit in the Asian region: Jeonnam, Jeonbuk and Gangwon areas in South Korea, Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Chubu, Kanto and Tohoku's border area in Japan, and Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian border area in China. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the preservation and efficient management of Asiatic black bear's habitat, artificially introduced individual bear's release area selection, and the management of collision zones with humans.

A Study on the Effect of the Document Summarization Technique on the Fake News Detection Model (문서 요약 기법이 가짜 뉴스 탐지 모형에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Shim, Jae-Seung;Won, Ha-Ram;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.201-220
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    • 2019
  • Fake news has emerged as a significant issue over the last few years, igniting discussions and research on how to solve this problem. In particular, studies on automated fact-checking and fake news detection using artificial intelligence and text analysis techniques have drawn attention. Fake news detection research entails a form of document classification; thus, document classification techniques have been widely used in this type of research. However, document summarization techniques have been inconspicuous in this field. At the same time, automatic news summarization services have become popular, and a recent study found that the use of news summarized through abstractive summarization has strengthened the predictive performance of fake news detection models. Therefore, the need to study the integration of document summarization technology in the domestic news data environment has become evident. In order to examine the effect of extractive summarization on the fake news detection model, we first summarized news articles through extractive summarization. Second, we created a summarized news-based detection model. Finally, we compared our model with the full-text-based detection model. The study found that BPN(Back Propagation Neural Network) and SVM(Support Vector Machine) did not exhibit a large difference in performance; however, for DT(Decision Tree), the full-text-based model demonstrated a somewhat better performance. In the case of LR(Logistic Regression), our model exhibited the superior performance. Nonetheless, the results did not show a statistically significant difference between our model and the full-text-based model. Therefore, when the summary is applied, at least the core information of the fake news is preserved, and the LR-based model can confirm the possibility of performance improvement. This study features an experimental application of extractive summarization in fake news detection research by employing various machine-learning algorithms. The study's limitations are, essentially, the relatively small amount of data and the lack of comparison between various summarization technologies. Therefore, an in-depth analysis that applies various analytical techniques to a larger data volume would be helpful in the future.