• Title/Summary/Keyword: 파손 확률

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Estimation and Application of Reliability Values for Strength of Material Following Gamma Distribution (감마분포를 따르는 재료강도의 신뢰도 예측과 응용)

  • Park, Sung-Ho;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.223-230
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    • 2012
  • The strength of brittle material has commonly been characterized by a normal distribution or Weibull distribution, but it may fit the gamma distribution for some material. The use of an extreme value distribution is proper when the largest values of a set of stresses dominate the failure of the material. This paper presents a formula for reliability estimation based on stress-strength interference theory that is applicable when the strength of material is distributed like a gamma distribution and the stress is distributed like an extreme value distribution. We verified the validity of the equation for the reliability estimation by examining the relationships among the factor of safety, the coefficient of variation, and the reliability. The required minimum factor of safety and the highest allowable coefficient of variation of stress can be estimated by choosing an objective reliability and estimating the reliabilities obtained for various factors of safety and coefficients of variation.

Reliability Assessment for Corroded Pipelines by Separable Monte Carlo Method (Separable Monte Carlo 방법을 적용한 부식배관 신뢰도평가)

  • Lee, Jin-Han;Jo, Young-Do;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.81-86
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    • 2015
  • A deterministic stress-based methodology has traditionally been applied in pipeline design. Meanwhile, reliability based design and assessment (RBDA) methodology has been extensively applied in offshore or nuclear structures. Lately, the release of ISO standard on reliability based limit state methods for pipelines ISO16708 indicates that the RBDA methodology is one of the newest directions of natural gas pipeline design method. This paper presents a case study of the RBDA procedure for predicting the time-dependent failure probability of pipelines with corrosion defects, where separable Monte Carlo (SMC) method is applied in the reliability estimation for corroded pipeline instead of traditional, crude Monte Carlo(CMC) Method. The result shows the SMC method take advantage of improving accuracy in reliability calculation.

Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk in Seoul Metropolitan Area (서울지역 지진 재해 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.5 no.4 s.19
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2005
  • The principal basic concepts of aseismic design minimize damage of human-life and have little probability during life of structures. For detailed understanding of the design, the best reasonable countermeasure can be possible equally the smallest damage of human-life and economic loss. As a result, it can be achieved by notion of not structure-centered but city-centered, the notion is actualized by development of a macro-level evaluation. A seismic damage between city and country is different. And the larger the city then, the greater the loss by rather collateral hazards than collapse of structures. Hence, the macro-evaluation of an earthquake disaster is suitable for an old city where is center of political and economic activity, and is concentration of population and infrastructure. This study aims to develop comprehensive earthquake desaster risk index, and assesses relative earthquake risk of six zones in Seoul metropolitan area.

Optimal Life Cycle design of Water Pipe System using Genetic Algorithm (상수관망 최적 생애주기 설계를 위한 유전알고리즘의 적용)

  • Lee, Seungyub;Yoo, Do Guen;Jung, Donghwi;Kim, Joong Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.4216-4227
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    • 2015
  • In this study, a model is developed based on Life Cycle Energy Analysis (LCEA) method with Genetic Algorithm (GA) to determine optimal diameter of Water Distribution System (WDS). For hydraulic analysis the EPANET2.0 program is linked with developed model, pipe-aging equation and pipe-breakage equation are built in to developed model to simulate pipe change through life cycle. The model is then applied to two sample WDSs for optimal energy design. After determining optimal diameter for each WDS, the total cost is calculated based on determined diameter and compared with well-known optimal diameter set of each WDS. Results show that optimal energy design of WDSs through the developed model can be an alternative option for optimal design of WDSs for reducing energy with lower in cost.

A Development of Dam Risk Analysis Model Using Bayesian Network Model in Hydrologic (Bayesian Network(BN) 모형을 활용한 수문학적 댐 위험도 해석 기법 개발)

  • Kim, Jin Young;Kim, Jin-Guk;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.501-501
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    • 2015
  • 댐과 같은 수공구조물의 치수능력부족은 구조물의 파손이나 붕괴로 직결되며, 대규모 재산피해와 인명피해가 불가피하다. 또한 최근 기후변화 현상에 의해 발생되고 있는 예상치 못한 큰 강우와 홍수는 댐 안전을 저하하는 요소로 간주되며, 복합적으로 발생시 댐의 치수능력이 크게 저하되어 댐 파괴에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 크다. 또한 ICOLD, 세계대댐회 등의 조사 결과 댐 파괴에 큰 영향을 미치고 있는 수문학적 요소로서 예상치 못한 강우, 홍수 및 월류로 조사되었다. 이러한 이유로 수문학적 위험인자를 효과적으로 고려하기 위해 2000년도 이후 선진국에서는 위험도 해석 기법을 기반으로 파괴모드, 다양한 하중조건 등을 조합하여 위험도 해석을 통해 댐의 안전도 검토를 실시하고 있다. 따라서 최근 증가하는 기상변동성을 능동적으로 고려하기 위해서는 위험도 해석기반의 수공구조물 안정성 평가기법을 기반으로 하는 종합적인 위험도 해석 방안수립이 요구된다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 BN 모형 기반의 댐 위험도 적용에 앞서 실증댐을 대상으로 분석을 수행하였으며, 분석 절차는 다음과 같다. 첫째, ICOLD 및 세계대댐회 등 다양한 논문, 보고서 등을 조사하여 댐 붕괴에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 수문학적 파괴인자를 도출하였다. 둘째, BN 모형 구축시 각 노드는 앞서 도출된 수문학적 파괴인자를 이용하였으며, 각 파괴인자에 적합한 확률분포형을 부여하였다. 마지막으로, 노드별 임계값을 부여하여 상황별 파괴인자의 변화 양상을 도출하였다. 본 연구의 결과로 인해 연구대상댐의 가장 취약한 수문학적 파괴인자 도출이 가능하며, 댐의 보수 보강시 우선순위 의사결정의 지원이 가능 할 것으로 판단된다.

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Time Series Analysis of Agricultural Reservoir Water Level Data for Abnormal Behavior Detection (농업용 저수지 이상거동 탐지를 위한 시계열 수위자료 특성 분석)

  • Lee, Sung Hack;Lee, Sang Hyun;Hong, Min Ki;Cho, Jin Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.275-275
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    • 2015
  • 최근 기후변화에 따른 극한 강우사상의 증가로 인하여 농업용 저수지의 재해 위험도가 증가하고 있는 추세이며, 사고가 발생할 때 마다 파손/붕괴된 시설물을 보수하는 대응형 유지관리체계에서 벗어나 기반시설의 성능과 생애주기 등을 고려하여 재해 발생을 사전에 예보 및 경보를 알릴 수 있는 예방적 관리체계로의 전환이 필요하다. 한국농어촌공사는 전국 1,500개 저수지에서 10분 단위 수위자료를 측정하고 있으며, 이를 분석하여 재해예방에 활용할 수 있는 기반이 조성되어 있으나 이에 대한 관리가 이루어지지 않고 있고 수집된 자료를 활용하여 재해 징후를 분석할 수 있는 재해 예방적 분석기술이 마련되어 있지 않은 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 농업용 저수지 수위자료를 이용한 저수지 이상거동을 판별하기 위하여 전국 34개 한국농어촌공사 관할 저수의 시계열 수위자료의 특성(Feature)을 분석하고자 한다. 시계열 자료의 시계열 특성을 분석하기 위하여 한국농어촌공사 관할의 전국 34개 저수지를 선정하여 분석을 실시하였다. 대상저수지는 지역별, 저수용량, 안정등급, 붕괴발생, 1개 지사관할 저수지로 각각 구분하여 선정하였으며, 각 저수지의 수위 측정기간(최소 5개년)에 대한 자료를 수집하였다. 농업용 저수지의 시계열 수위 자료의 특성을 분석하기 위하여 자료의 전처리를 수행하였다. 자료의 전처리는 시계열 수위자료의 잡음 특성, 기상자료 관련 변동특성 등 분류(Classification)에 영향을 미치는 노이즈 요소를 제거하는 과정이다. 전처리과정을 거친 자료는 특징(Feature) 추출 과정을 거치게 되고, 추출된 특징의 적합성에 따라 분류 알고리듬 성능에 많은 영향을 미친다. 따라서 시계열 자료의 특성을 파악하고 특징을 추출하는 것은 이상치 탐지에 있어 매우 중요한 과정이다. 본 연구에서는 시계열 자료 특징 추출 방법으로 물리적인 한계치, 확률적인 문턱값(Threshold), 시계열 패턴, 주변 저수지와의 시계열 상관분석 등을 적용하였으며, 이를 데이터베이스로 구축하여 이후 분류알고리듬 학습에 적용하여 정상치와 이상치를 판별하는데 이용될 수 있도록 하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서 제시되는 농업용 저수지의 시계열 특성은 다양한 분류알고리듬에 적용할 수 있으며, 이를 통하여 저수지 이상거동 판별을 위한 최적을 분류알고리듬의 선택에 도움이 될 것이다.

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Sympathetic Detonation Modeling of PBXN-109 (PBXN-109가 장전된 155 mm 고폭탄의 순폭현상 해석)

  • Kim, Bohoon;Kim, Minsung;Yang, Seungho;Oh, Sean;Kim, Jinseok;Choi, Sangkyung;Yoh, Jai-Ick
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2014
  • Sympathetic detonation (SD) of high explosives occurs when a detonating donor initiates neighboring acceptors. The present study focuses on the hydrodynamic simulation of one-on-one sympathetic detonation of 155 mm charge filled with PBXN-109. Both unbuffered and buffered SD configurations are performed while changing the distance between each charge, in order to investigate the detonation sensitivity to a donor initiation. The cause of a SD is by a shock impact for the unbuffered case at a close range, while at a distant range, blast fragment penetration is the primary cause. The buffers can reduce the incident sensitivity to a SD by reducing the strengths of shock wave and impinging fragments.

Prediction Model of CNC Processing Defects Using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 이용한 CNC 가공 불량 발생 예측 모델)

  • Han, Yong Hee
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.249-255
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    • 2022
  • This study proposed an analysis framework for real-time prediction of CNC processing defects using machine learning-based models that are recently attracting attention as processing defect prediction methods, and applied it to CNC machines. Analysis shows that the XGBoost, CatBoost, and LightGBM models have the same best accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and AUC, of which the LightGBM model took the shortest execution time. This short run time has practical advantages such as reducing actual system deployment costs, reducing the probability of CNC machine damage due to rapid prediction of defects, and increasing overall CNC machine utilization, confirming that the LightGBM model is the most effective machine learning model for CNC machines with only basic sensors installed. In addition, it was confirmed that classification performance was maximized when an ensemble model consisting of LightGBM, ExtraTrees, k-Nearest Neighbors, and logistic regression models was applied in situations where there are no restrictions on execution time and computing power.

A Study on Root Damage to Street Pavement from the Roots of Roadside Trees in Urban Areas - Focusing on Roadside Trees in Seo-gu, Daejeon City - (도심 가로수 뿌리의 융기특성 연구 - 대전 서구 가로수를 대상으로 -)

  • Tak, Seong-Cheol;Lee, Shiyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.58-69
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    • 2018
  • This study investigated root damage characteristics and correlations between roadside trees and street furniture through the investigation of the root damage conditions and the current status of roadside trees and street furniture in Seo-gu, Daejeon City where the occurrence of pavement uplift is frequent. The study area was divided into six areas by species of trees as Metasequoia glyptostroboides and Platanus occidentalis focusing on the streets that were installed with trees chest height and 8cm round planted at the time of the development of the Dunsan-dong Housing Site Development in Seo-gu, Daejeon metropolitan city (1990~1994). The damage rate of roadside protection frames (95.3%) was higher than that of curbstones (19.7%) at the study site. Streets without a protective frame were more likely to have damaged pavement. In addition, the frequency of breakage of protective frames was lowered when a drinking water area was increased to more than a certain level. The frequency of the type of uplift in the sidewalk pavement surfaces is in the order of tail type > mounding type > irregular type, and the frequency of the uplift direction is the highest in Direction 1 ($0{\sim}44^{\circ}C$), Direction 2 ($45{\sim}89^{\circ}$), and Direction 3 ($95{\sim}134^{\circ}$) when $180^{\circ}$ of the street direction is based on $90^{\circ}$ parallel to the curbstone. The uplift length is about 31~60cm and it is most often at a height of 3~6cm. When comparing the results of uplift deformation, Metasequoia glyptostroboides was found to be higher than the deformation of Platanus occidentalis. In addition, it can be seen that the larger the length, width and height of the ridge, the larger the deformation becomes. The relationship between the diameter at breast height, the dimension of the pavement width, the frequency of the ridge phenomenon and the deformation amount is not necessarily proportional, and there seems to be a gap due to external factors such as soil humidity and planting base. Therefore there is a need for a multi-directional approach in reducing uplift.

Development of a Thermoplastic Oral Compensator for Improving Dose Uniformity in Radiation Therapy for Head and Neck Cancer (두경부암 방사선치료 시 선량 균일도 향상을 위한 Thermoplastic 구강 보상체의 개발)

  • Choi, Joon-Yong;Won, Young-Jin;Park, Ji-Yeon;Kim, Jong-Won;Moon, Bong-Ki;Yoon, Hyong-Geun;Moon, Soo-Ho;Jeon, Jong-Byeong;Suh, Tae-Suk
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.269-278
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    • 2012
  • Aquaplast Thermoplastic (AT) is a tissue-equivalent oral compensator that has been developed to improve dose uniformity at the common boundary and around the treated area during radiotherapy in patients with head and neck cancer. In order to assess the usefulness of AT, the degree of improvement in dose distribution and physical properties were compared to those of oral compensators made using paraffin, alginate, and putty, which are materials conventionally used in dental imprinting. To assess the physical properties, strength evaluations (compression and drop evaluations) and natural deformation evaluations (volume change over time) were performed; a Gafchromic EBT2 film and a glass dosimeter inserted into a developed phantom for dose verification were used to measure the common boundary dose and the beam profile to assess the dose delivery. When the natural deformation of the oral compensators was assessed over a two-month period, alginate exhibited a maximum of 80% change in volume from moisture evaporation, while the remaining tissue-equivalent properties, including those of AT, showed a change in volume that was less than 3%. In a free-fall test at a height of 1.5 m (repeated 5 times as a strength evaluation), paraffin was easily damaged by the impact, but AT exhibited no damage from the fall. In compressive strength testing, AT was not destroyed even at 8 times the force needed for paraffin. In dose verification using a glass dosimeter, the results showed that in a single test, the tissue-equivalent (about 80 Hounsfield Units [HU]) AT delivered about 4.9% lower surface dose in terms of delivery of an output coefficient (monitor unit), which was 4% lower than putty and exhibited a value of about 1,000 HU or higher during a dose delivery of the same formulation. In addition, when the incident direction of the beam was used as a reference, the uniformity of the dose, as assessed from the beam profile at the boundary after passing through the oral compensators, was 11.41, 3.98, and 4.30 for air, AT, and putty, respectively. The AT oral compensator had a higher strength and lower probability of material transformation than the oral compensators conventionally used as a tissue-equivalent material, and a uniform dose distribution was successfully formed at the boundary and surrounding area including the mouth. It was also possible to deliver a uniformly formulated dose and reduce the skin dose delivery.