• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.35-48
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• 2014

According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

• 월간 기계설비
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• s.291
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• pp.81-83
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• 2014

• 어항어장
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• s.18
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• pp.54-58
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• 1992

• The Korea Beekeeping Bulletin
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• s.352
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• pp.55-55
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• 2010

• Product Safety
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• s.182
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• pp.82-83
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• 2009

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.579-585
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• 2006

We consider a ruin model where the surplus process is formed by a Brownian motion. If the level of surplus exceeds V, then we assume that a insurer invests an amount of S to other place. In this paper, we apply martingale methods to the surplus process and obtain the expectation of period T, time from origin to the point where the level of surplus reaches either V or 0. As a consequence, we finally derive the total and average amount of surplus during T.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.29-62
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• 2007

We examine the methods to increase MBS values given parameters of default risks of individual mortgages and their correlation, and analyze the effects of these parameters on the efficiency of the methods. First, the values of MBS can be improved when they are comprised of low-correlation mortgages regardless of specific forms of investors' utility functions. Second, the values of MBS can also be raised even after their components mortgages are determined. More specifically, when investors' utilities are heterogeneous, CMO's of a less risky tranche and a riskier tranche are highly valued compared with pass-through securities of two identical tranches. When investors' utilities are homogeneous(risk averse), however, the latter meets the needs of investors better than the former does. Third, it can be shown that the efficiency of the methods in this paper is an increasing function of default risks of mortgage loans or of the correlation between them, and a decreasing function of the amount of the price fall of MBS when in default.

• Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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• v.51 no.1
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• pp.48-65
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• 2018

The authors of this paper aim to make a record of the construction process, its symbolic meaning, and the changes in the status of the landscape plants at the Pasanseodang according to the Report on the Pasanseodang written by Park Gyu-hyun in 1874. First, the construction of Samgahun Pavilion, which is located in Myo-ri, Habin-myun, Dalsung-gun, Daegu, took about 90 years and spanned the lifetimes of Park Sungsoo, an 11th-generation descendant of Park Paengnyun (1417~1456) through to Park Kyuhyun, a 14th-generation descendant. It was called the shape of dragon, with its head facing the tail (回龍顧尾形), in feng shui. Second, the village of Pahwoe was founded in 1769, the 45th year of the reign of King Yeongjo, by Park Sungsoo for the purpose of socializing with his friends at his thatched home, and was named after his own courtesy name (Samgahun). Park Kwangseok, the second son of Park Sungsoo, built the sarangchae in 1826 and the anchae in 1869 after his marriage (in 1783). Then, Park Kyuhyun, the grandson of Park Kwangseok, built the pond and planted it with lotus flowers, and built the Hayeopjeong in 1874. The Pasanseodang, as the precursor of the Hayeopjeong, may be related with the name of the hillside region behind Samgahun. Third, a quadrangular-shaped pond with a length of 21m and a width of 15m was also built and planted with lotus flowers. In the center of the pond is a small round island that reflects the world view of the Chosun dynasty, i.e. that the sky is round and the landmass is quadrangular. Meanwhile, the name of the Hayeopjeon reflects the value system of aristocrats who lived a life of leisure and artistic indulgence. They called the eastern room "Yeeyeonhun" (怡燕軒) and the western room "Mongyangjae" (蒙養齋), names which embody their wishes for a good life as a member of the nobility and a bright future for one's descendants. Fourth, in Confucian terms, the authors infer the points of view reflected in the kinds of trees that were planted according to Confucian norms (pine tree, lotus, bamboo), the living philosophy of sustainability (willow), the ideology of seclusion and the search for peace of mind (bamboo), and relief efforts for the poor and a life of practicality (chestnut, oak, wild walnut, lacquer). The authors assert that this way of planting trees was a highly effective design feature of landscape architecture that drew on the locational and symbolic significance of the Seodang. Fifth, the majority of the trees that were initially planted withered and were replaced with different species, except for the locust and lotus, at this point. Nevertheless, a review of the process of construction, symbolic meaning, and original architectural landscape of the Samgahun is of value in demonstrating the extended symbolic meaning of their descendants in terms of the practical loss of the function of the Seodang, the values of Feng Sui (red in the east, white in the west, based on the principles of Feng Sui), the function of repelling evils spirits (kalopanax, trifoliate orange), aesthetic and practical values (sweetbrier, apricot, pear, peach, and oriental oak trees), and the prosperity of the family and the timeless value of honest poverty (silk, crape myrtle, and yew trees).

• 프린팅코리아
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.114-117
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• 2011

• Nuclear industry
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• v.37 no.8
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• pp.34-37
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• 2017

올 가을 안에 미 뉴욕에 있는 미국 연방파산법원의 판사 한 명은 연초에 재무상의 위기를 벗어나는 데 실패한 유수한 역사의 원전기업 웨스팅하우스의 운명을 결정짓게 될 것이다. 그 결정은 한 기업의 파산 이상으로 매우 중요한 의미를 가지는데, 그것은 서방 세계가 우리에게 위협이 되는 핵의 확산과 기후 변화라는 두 가지 문제를 해결하는데 주도적인 역할을 할 것인지, 아니면 세계 원전시장의 주도권을 러시아에 넘겨줄 것인지를 의미하는 것이다. 한국의 KEPCO는 UAE 등 해외의 공사를 포함, 원전을 예산과 공기에 맞춰 건설하는 것으로 명성을 얻었다. 그러나 최근에 새로 선출된 한국의 대통령은 지난 2011년 발생한 후쿠시마 원전 사고로 생긴 국민들의 두려움에 대한 대응책으로 탈원전 정책을 추구하고 있다. 만약 이 정책이 성공하게 된다면 자국 내의 원전 건설 기자재 공급 체제가 없어지게 되고, 그에 못지않게 중요한 외국의 신뢰마저 잃게 됨으로써 한국은 세계 원전시장의 경쟁 구도에서 퇴출될 것이다.