• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.35 no.12
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• pp.45-58
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• 2019

In this study, a stochastic analysis procedure based on numerical analysis was proposed to evaluate a kind of intensity-duration rainfall threshold for the initiation of slope failure due to rainfall infiltration. Fragility curves were generated as a function of rainfall intensity-duration from the results of probabilistic slope stability analysis by MCS considering the uncertainty of the soil shear strength, reflecting the results of infiltration analysis of rainfall over time. In the probabilistic analysis, slope stability analyses combined with the infiltration analysis of rainfall were performed to calculate the limit state function. Using the derived fragility curves, a chart showing the relationship between rainfall intensity and slope failure-time was developed. It is based on a probabilistic analysis considering the uncertainty of the soil properties. The proposed probabilistic failure distribution analysis could be beneficial for analyzing the time-dependent failure process of soil slopes due to rainfall infiltration, and for predicting when the slope failure should occur.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.25-34
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• 2010

A method is presented for evaluating the seismic failure probability of bridge structures which show a nonlinear hysteretic dynamic behavior. Bridge structures are modeled as a bilinear dynamic system with a single degree of freedom. We regarded that the failure of bridges will occur when the displacement response of a deck level firstly crosses the predefined limit state during a duration of strong motion. For the estimation of the first-crossing probability of a nonlinear structural system excited by earthquake motion, we computed the average frequency of crossings of the limit state. We presented the non-Gaussian closure method for the approximation of the joint probability density function of response and its derivative, which is required for the estimation of the average frequency of crossings. The failure probabilities are estimated according to the various artificial earthquake acceleration sets representing specific seismic characteristics. For the verification of the accuracy and efficiency of presented method, we compared the estimated failure probabilities with the results evaluated from previous methods and the exact values estimated with the crude Monte-Carlo simulation method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.41-50
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• 2003

Nondestructive Damage Evaluation (NDE) techniques yield the damage location and its size from the modal characteristics of pre-damaged and post-damaged structures. To predict the system reliability of the aging structure, results from the NDE are integrated into the element/component failure probabilities. The element/component failure probabilities can be calculated from failure functions for each element/component with the aid of techniques from a structural reliability analysis. In this paper, a method to estimate the system reliability of a structure that is based on the reliabilities of elements/components in a given structure is presented. The efficacy of the combination of the nondestructive damage detection and the structural reliability evaluation is demonstrated using pre-damaged and post-damaged modal data obtained from numerical simulations of a rigid frame.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.89-96
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• 2015

In order to use missiles more effectively, assessing methodologies was advanced about weapon effects for various target types. We tried to find out the most effective analysis methodologies for missiles to attack 3 dimensional building target's and analyzed adaptedness as an assessing methodology. There are EFD (Expected Fractional Damage) and SSPD (Single Sortie Probability of Damage) methodologies to assess building target damage. In order to calculate effectiveness we used input parameter such as size of the target and CEP (Circular Error Probable), MAE_bldg (Mean Area of Effects for Building) of weapons and impact angle as encountering condition between the target and the missile. We compared EFD and SSPD, in order to analyze adaptedness as a effective methodology by CEP and MAE. The result was that EFD methodology was more adaptive to assess 3 dimensional building targets by missile systems than SSPD.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.9-17
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• 2001

A probability of failure of armor units on rubbJe-mound breakwater are evaluated by using the direct method for reliability analysis, which is represented as a function of safety factor that has been extensively used in practical design. The reliability function is fonnulated based on Hudson formula suggested for designing the stable size of armor units on rubble-mound breakwater. Several kinds of stability coefficient are applied separately to calculate the probability of failure with respect to the type of armor units, breaking/nonbreaking and the correlation coefficients between random variables. [n addition, the sensitivity analyses are carried out to investigate quantitatively into the effects of each random variable in the reliability function on the probability of failure.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.52-62
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• 2013

A stochastic Markov process (MP) model has been developed for evaluating the probability of failure of the armor unit of rubble-mound breakwaters as a function of time. The mathematical MP model could have been formulated by combining the counting process or renewal process (CP/RP) on the load occurrences with the damage process (DP) on the cumulative damage events, and applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. Transition probabilities have been estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) technique with the definition of damage level of armor units, and very well satisfies some conditions constrained in the probabilistic and physical views. The probabilities of failure have been also compared and investigated in process of time which have been calculated according to the variations of return period and safety factor being the important variables related to design of armor units of rubble-mound breakwater. In particular, it can be quantitatively found how the prior damage levels can effect on the sequent probabilities of failure. Finally, two types of methodology have been in this study proposed to evaluate straightforwardly the repair times which are indispensable to the maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters and shown several simulation results including the cost analyses.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.86-96
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• 2003

A fracture or breakage of the concrete armor units in the primary cover layer of breakwaters is studied by using the reliability analysis which may be defined as the structural stability. The reliability function can be derived as a function of the angle of rotation that represents the rocking of armor units quantitatively. The relative influences of all of random variables related to the material and geometric properties on the fracture of armor units is analyzed in detail. In addition, the probability of failure for the fracture of individual armor unit can be evaluated as a function of the incident wave height. Finally, Bernoulli random process and the allowable fracture ratio may be introduced together in this paper, by which the probability of failure of a breakwater due to the fracture of armer units can be obtained straightforwardly. It is found that the probability of failure of a breakwater due to the fracture of armor units may be varied with the several allowable fracture ratios. Therefore, it should be necessary to consider the structural stability as well as the hydraulic stability for the design of breakwaters with multi-leg slender concrete armor units of large size under wave action in deep water.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.97-105
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• 2002

Random properties of discontinuities were attributed to the limitation of test methods and lack of obtained data. Therefore, the uncertainties are pervasive and inevitable in rock slope engineering as well as other geotechnical engineering fields. The probabilistic analysis has been proposed to deal properly with the uncertainty. However, previous probabilistic approaches do not take account of the condition of kinematic instability but consider only kinetic instability. In this study, in order to overcome the limitation of the previous studies, the geometric characteristics as well as the shear strength characteristics in discontinuities are taken account into the probabilistic analysis. Then, the new approach to evaluate the probability of failure is suggested. The results of the deterministic analysis which was carried out to compare with the result of the probabilistic analysis, are somewhat different from those of the probabilistic approach. This is because the selected and used data in the deterministic approach do not take account of the random properties of discontinuities.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.39-50
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• 1988

Until now, most probabilistic approaches to the slope stability analysis have been accomplished on the arc failure surface without load. In this study, the relationships between the probability of failure and the safety factor are investigated when the shape of failure is logarithmic spiral on the homogeneous slope with ground water level, the probability distributions of the load and the strength parameter of soil being assumed as normal distribution, log-normal distribution and beta distribution. The results obtained are as follows; 1. For the same safety factor, the design of slope is more reasonable by using the probability of failure than by the safety factor because the probability of failure is increased as the coefficient of variation is increased. 2, The safety factor is more reasonably determined by the coefficient of variation of the strength parameter than by the field condition when the safety factor is applied to design of slope.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.191-201
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• 2010

The breakwaters are designed by considering the cost optimization because a human risk is seldom considered. Most breakwaters, however, were constructed without considering the cost optimization. In this study, the optimum return period, target failure probability and the partial safety factors were evaluated by applying the cost optimization to the rubble mound breakwaters in Korea. The applied method was developed by Hans F. Burcharth and John D. Sorensen in relation to the PIANC Working Group 47. The optimum return period was determined as 50 years in many cases and was found as 100 years in the case of high real interest rate. Target failure probability was suggested by using the probabilities of failure corresponding to the optimum return period and those of reliability analysis of existing structures. The final target failure probability is about 60% for the initial limit state of the national design standard and then the overall safety factor is calculated as 1.09. It is required that the nominal diameter and weight of armor are respectively 9% and 30% larger than those of the existing design method. Moreover, partial safety factors considering the cost optimization were compared with those calculated by Level 2 analysis and a fairly good agreement was found between the two methods especially the failure probability less than 40%.