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http://dx.doi.org/10.7843/kgs.2019.35.12.45

Probabilistic Failure-time Analysis of Soil Slope under Rainfall Infiltration by Numerical Analysis  

Cho, Sung-Eun (Dept. of Civil, Safety, and Environmental Engrg. & Construction Engrg. Research Institute, Hankyong National Univ.)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society / v.35, no.12, 2019 , pp. 45-58 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, a stochastic analysis procedure based on numerical analysis was proposed to evaluate a kind of intensity-duration rainfall threshold for the initiation of slope failure due to rainfall infiltration. Fragility curves were generated as a function of rainfall intensity-duration from the results of probabilistic slope stability analysis by MCS considering the uncertainty of the soil shear strength, reflecting the results of infiltration analysis of rainfall over time. In the probabilistic analysis, slope stability analyses combined with the infiltration analysis of rainfall were performed to calculate the limit state function. Using the derived fragility curves, a chart showing the relationship between rainfall intensity and slope failure-time was developed. It is based on a probabilistic analysis considering the uncertainty of the soil properties. The proposed probabilistic failure distribution analysis could be beneficial for analyzing the time-dependent failure process of soil slopes due to rainfall infiltration, and for predicting when the slope failure should occur.
Keywords
Failure-time; Fragility curve; Monte carlo simulation; Rainfall infiltration; Soil slope;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
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