• Journal of Information Management
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.93-112
• /
• 2004

This study is intend to analyze the cited patent life time of US patent data via more objective way. It is based on exploratory approach which is one of various methods for technology forecasting. The life spans of cited patents of specific technological field are deduced from using informetric analysis of USPA database of KISTI, which is composed of US patent data covered from 1972 to present. The statistics of the results may help to estimate the economic life span of the specific technological area for technology valuation.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.19 no.6
• /
• pp.113-132
• /
• 2021

This study is a new evaluation using the Arrhenius equation, which is known as the chemical reaction rate estimation equation, to evaluate the intrinsic and extrinsic value elements of patents as a model. The performance of the evaluation model was superior to the SVM, Logistic reg. and ANN models that were used as patent evaluation models in prior studies. In addition, there was a strong correlation between the predicted lifespan of the patent and the actual lifespan of the patent. These evaluation models may be used for evaluation purposes only, or if an evaluation is required, including a commercialization entity or technical characteristics.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.745-765
• /
• 2012

When attempting to use the income approach for the purpose of technology valuation, it is essential to identify the economic life of the technology in question. From the mid-2000s up to the present, the methods proposed by major Korean institutions for estimating the economic life of technologies have been based on cited patent life (CLT), which is one of the types of technology life. The present study utilizes cited patent life (CLT) to estimate the economic life of technology for the purpose of technology valuation, and proposes a new method of analyzing cited patent life, a method that has been improved by taking into consideration the elapsed period and the time period of investment required for commercialization, two factors which have been hitherto overlooked. Survival curve analysis is a method that has already been widely utilized to estimate the economic life of tangible assets, and this study applies the same method to the calculation of the cited patent life index of technology to provide a more objective method for determining the lifetime of a technology. The remaining life expectancy of cited patent life based on the number of elapsed years was calculated and used to determine the life expectancy of a technology that has reached a specific number of elapsed years, which is referred to as the remaining cited-patent life time (r-CLT).

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
• /
• 2017.11a
• /
• pp.723-734
• /
• 2017

최근 4차 산업혁명이 많은 관심이 불러일으키며 기술발전의 속도가 점점 빨라지고 있다는 것에 많은 전문가들이 동의하고 있다. 하지만 정량적 데이터로 이를 증명한 논문은 찾기 어렵다. 최근 연구결과를 보면 오히려 일반적으로 기술발전 속도에 반비례한다고 알려진 TCT값이 과거에 비해 점점 커지고 있음을 확인할 수 있다. 실제로 사업화가 되어 산업에 영향을 미치는 특허는 매우 소수이기 때문에, 실제 산업발전에 기여 할 것으로 예상되는 핵심특허만 뽑아 분석하면 특허 전수를 분석한 것과는 다른 양상이 나올 것으로 가정하고 이들의 기술수명주기를 전체 특허의 기술수명기기와 비교하였다.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.28 no.2
• /
• pp.147-170
• /
• 2022

Although the number of patent which is one of the core outputs of technological innovation continues to increase, the number of low-value patents also hugely increased. Therefore, efficient evaluation of patents has become important. Estimation of patent lifespan which represents private value of a patent, has been studied for a long time, but in most cases it relied on a linear model. Even if machine learning methods were used, interpretation or explanation of the relationship between explanatory variables and patent lifespan was insufficient. In this study, patent lifespan (number of renewals) is predicted based on the idea that patent lifespan represents the value of the patent. For the research, 4,033,414 patents applied between 1996 and 2017 and finally granted were collected from USPTO (US Patent and Trademark Office). To predict the patent lifespan, we use variables that can reflect the characteristics of the patent, the patent owner's characteristics, and the inventor's characteristics. We build four different models (Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Feed Forward Neural Network, Gradient Boosting Models) and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold Cross Validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated, and the relative importance of predictors is also presented. In addition, based on the Gradient Boosting Model which have excellent performance, Accumulated Local Effects Plot is presented to visualize the relationship between predictors and patent lifespan. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the evaluation reason of individual patents, and discuss applicability to the patent evaluation system. This study has academic significance in that it cumulatively contributes to the existing patent life estimation research and supplements the limitations of existing patent life estimation studies based on linearity. It is academically meaningful that this study contributes cumulatively to the existing studies which estimate patent lifespan, and that it supplements the limitations of linear models. Also, it is practically meaningful to suggest a method for deriving the evaluation basis for individual patent value and examine the applicability to patent evaluation systems.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.49-74
• /
• 2012

In this study we analyzed factors affecting the life cycle of technology, quantified the evaluation criteria that will affect the life of the individual technologies, and finally proposed the improvements to calculate technology life cycle that the properties of individual technologies are reflected based on cited-patent life time(CLT). It is expected that the methodology proposed improves the limits of the existing standard model, presents more reasonable criteria and ease of persuasion on the results derived by appraisers, and finally gives a lot of the feasibility and the usability of technology life cycle derived by the improved method to appraisers.

• The Journal of Information Technology
• /
• v.6 no.3
• /
• pp.75-85
• /
• 2003

It is highly required to evaluate the economic value of technology in many decision making of the technology management area, for example, technology acquisition, transfer, and investments. Also evaluating the performance of R&D objectively is very important subject in the public side. So, developing the objective technology evaluation system has much usefulness in practice. In many studies, the patent information has been suggested to the valid measurement for evaluation of technology. The purpose of this study is to explore the validity of patent information as a measurement of technology evaluation.

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
• /
• 2009.02a
• /
• pp.605-626
• /
• 2009

본 연구는 IT산업에서 일반적으로 제품 수명이 짧은 반면, 특허출원부터 등록시 까지 기간이 많이 소요되기 때문에 과연 특허출원하는 것이 실효성이 있을 지에 대한 의구심에서 출발하여 IT산업에서 특허 보유의 필요성이 있는지 여부에 대해 여러 각도에서 집중 분석해 보았다. 본 연구에서는 IT산업에 대한 정의, 국내 IT산업의 세계 시장에서의 위치 및 특허 환경 분석을 통한 분석과 IT산업에서 실제 사용되었던 특허를 사례별로 분석해 봄으로써 전략적으로 특허를 창출하는 방안을 제시하고자 했다. 본 연구결과 우리나라 IT산업의 세계시장에서의 점유율이 높은 부분인 낸드플래시메모리, 평판패널, DRAM, 이동통신 단말 부분에 대한 국내 특허출원 건수를 조사한 바, DRAM, 낸드플래시메모리, 평판패널 그리고 이동통신 단말 순으로 특허출원 건수가 많음을 알 수 있었다. 또한 IT산업의 국내 특허분쟁 사례를 조사한 바, 총산업 대비 41%를 점하고 있다는 사실을 알 수 있었다. 이러한 특허 환경에 대처하기 위해서는 전략적으로 특허를 확보해야 하는 당위성에 입각하여 실제 기업에서 특허분쟁에서 사용되었던 강한특허를 벤치마킹하여 어떻게 특허를 창출해야할 지에 대한 답을 얻고자 했다. 그 결과로 연구개발을 통한 많은 실시 예 확보, 명세서 작성 시 한정적인 용어의 선택을 피하고, 발명의 내용을 확대할 수 있는 특허제도 활용, 마지막으로 의견서 제출 시 균등해석을 제한하는 표현 삼가 등이 전략적으로 특허를 창출하는 핵심 요소로 분석되었다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
• /
• 2012.05a
• /
• pp.349-359
• /
• 2012

• Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
• /
• 2017.11a
• /
• pp.763-777
• /
• 2017

기술집약적 산업의 급격한 기술혁신 속도 및 환경변화에 따른 기술수명 주기의 단축, 기술간 경쟁을 통한 시장지배력의 우위를 선점하기 위해 기술융합을 통한 연구전략 수립은 중요한 이슈가 되고 있다. 최근 4차 산업혁명 기반의 반도체산업이 이러한 예이며, 이와 같은 기술집약적 산업의 기술융합이 매우 중요해짐에 따라, 관련 전략수립을 위한 다양한 방법이 시도되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 데이터 기반의 논문 특허 분석을 통해 반도체산업의 플라즈마 기술이슈의 기술융합 동향 및 특허 동향 분석과 이를 통한 특허 전략 수립 사례를 제시하고자 한다.