• Plant Journal
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.42-48
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• 2012

Under traditional analysis of the capital budgeting, NPV, it is assumed that management cannot react to deviation from the expected scenario of cash flow at the time of evaluation. In practice, however, it is less likely that the expected scenario will come true when new information arrives and uncertainty is resolved. Uncertainty and risk can be influenced through 'managerial flexibility', which becomes a central instrument for value creation. Real option framework including option to defer, option for staged investment, option to alter, option to abandon, option to switch, etc. takes this managerial flexibility into account. Therefore, it is more appropriate to use real option method to evaluate the project than the traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) tool if the firm has high volatility of the expected returns.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.30 no.3
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• pp.121-140
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to identify economic benefits for analyzing the future port and propose an appropriate estimation model. This research has conducted the empirical analysis in order to examine the developed research model. First of all, several existing economic benefits are reviewed and the list of benefits, are able to quantify and characterizable, is selected for the next step. We test the application possibility of the proposed model applying for the three suggestions(AS/RS, OSS, Sky Rail) which are based on "Development of Smart Green Container Terminal Technology." The results of this paper are as follows: Firstly, all of the alternatives are proved economic validation because the values of B/C analysis are over 1.0. Secondly, sensitive analysis is attempted to test unforeseeable circumstances based on the cost increases. The result of the test is identified economic validation as well. Lastly, we convince that the proposed research model in this study is particularly applicable to future container terminal so-called "eco-friendly and fully automated container terminal with high productivity."

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.223-230
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• 2011

According to EMEP/EEA Emission Inventory Guidebook, the emissions produced by vehicle in cold start phase should be calculated differently compared to hot start phase. In this study, considering this driving cycle, more appropriate procedures for estimating Environmental Benefits was suggested. Using Tier 3 standard, all links within the impact area were included in estimating emissions. Traffic volume and travel distance were analyzed using EMME/3 software. For application of the procedures in this study, the case study was carried out with real transportation project. As a result, the Environment-Benefits increased by 30%. If the methodology suggested in this study is applied to feasibility study it will help to activate the investment of the environment-friendly modes like railway in the future.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.217-244
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• 2003

As energy industry is undergoing a rapid structural changes, economic feasibility analysis based on the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations to incorporate management's flexibilities. We present a real options pricing method (ROPM) which can be applied to an energy sector as an alternative. In order to examine the usefulness of ROPM, this study compares the result of DCF method applied to the investment of cogeneration power plant with that based on the ROPM incorporating the value of real of options inherent in the project. The simulation results show that the value of investment opportunities improves using ROPM compared to that with the conventional DCF methods. Therefore, a specific project which appears to be unprofitable from the conventional point of view could be, actually, an economically feasible one based on ROPM method, when properly incorporating the management's flexibilities inherent in the project.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.85-107
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• 2015

This study analyzes the effect of applying hyperbolic social discount rate onto the results of benefit-cost analysis of environmental public investment projects in Korea. In order to check the application possibility to the actual feasibility study, the discount factors generated by hyperbolic function, rather than traditional exponential one, would be applied to the benefit and cost data from the pre-feasibility studies which peformed for environmental public investment projects. The results of this study shows that using hyperbolic social discount rate is effective for enhancing test results, only under the condition of which the full expansion of the time periods of analysis is satisfied. According to the simulation results of this study, to achieve higher benefit/cost ratio by using hyperbolic social discount rate, the period should be increased up to 120 to 150 years at least.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.163-190
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• 2009

This study tries to analyze the investment determinants of Chinese firms in local Korea, where the Chinese investing ones have been operating since in the middle of 1990s. The main purpose can be mentioned to test empirically some relations between the investment determinants of Chinese firms and the investment types. In detail speaking, the dependent variables of investment types are classified with sole venture and joint venture, while the independent ones are sorted based on the previous studies with the 2 following factors like the competitive advantages of Chinese firms, and the location advantages of local Korea. This study is conducted as the following: the survey of Chinese firms engaging in investment activities in there is implemented by collecting questionnaires. And for testing the hypothesis, the path analysis of structural equation modeling is activated with SPSS. 12.0 and AMOS 11.0 for windows.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2007.11b
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• pp.100-102
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• 2007

본 논문에서는 혼합정수 선형계획 법을 이용하여 장기 전력계통 계획수립시 최적의 설비를 투자할 수 있는 기법을 제안하였다. 발전설비와 송변전설비는 하나의 망으로 연결되어 상호 보완적 영향을 주기 때문에 계통계획시 두 설비를 동시에 평가하는 것이 무엇보다 중요하다. 또한 계획기간 전체에 대해 투자비를 고려하여 비용을 최소화해야 한다. 이를 위해 선형계획법을 계통계획에 도입하여 최소비용의 투자비를 가지고 공급 신뢰도 기준를 만족할 수 있는 최적 장기 전력계통 계획 수립기법을 개발하였다. 개발된 기법을 Garver 6모선 계통 및 제3차 전력수급기본계획에 대해 모의하여 결과의 타당성을 검증하였다.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.357-360
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• 2007

Any investment analysis has to deal with the uncertainty that arises over the course of operating the invested project. When it comes to an wind power, such analysis gets even more complicated, as the wind resource or the current is inherently unstable and unpredictable. Different from predecessors in the field of analyzing wind power economics, this paper proposes a stochastic methodology of analyzing the economic efficiency of an investment in wind power to explicitly address those uncertainties or risks. A probability distribution is assigned to each variable to generate a probability distribution of the economic value of an investment through a Monte-Carlo simulation

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2011.05a
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• pp.109-113
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• 2011

수자원사업은 합리적이고 신뢰성 있는 의사결정이 필요한데 그동안 주로 경제성분석에 의존하여 왔다. 본 연구는 경제성분석위주의 기존 방법을 탈피하여 사업 필요성과 투자 타당성을 다양한 각도로 평가할 수 있는 합리적이고 객관적인 수자원사업 대안선정과 투자우선순위결정 방법을 도출하고자 하였다. 이를 위해, 대안 간에 동일한 기준으로 종합평가점수를 산정하여 우선순위를 결정할 수 있도록 다기준의사결정모형을 개발하였다. 적용결과는 취약성 기준에 큰 영향을 받으며, 정책적 기준, 경제성 기준의 순으로 분석되었다. 이는 전문가 설문에 의한 평가기준별 가중치의 영향으로, 수자원사업은 단순히 경제성 분석만으로 평가를 해서는 안 됨을 의미한다. 본 연구는 대규모의 예산이 투입되는 수자원사업에 대한 효율성과 취약지역에 대한 형평성을 제고하는데 기여할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.1550-1554
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• 2008

우리나라에서 수리불안전답은 전체 답의 20% 이상을 차지하고 있고, 총 수자원이용량 대비 농업용수 이 용량은 50% 수준으로 아시아 또는 세계 평균에 비하여 매우 낮은 편이다. 또한, 과거 설치된 수리시설물이 노후화되었고, 국가의 균형적인 농촌사회 개발, 그리고 국내 농업경쟁력 제고 측면에서 추가적인 농업용수 공급이 필수적으로 요구되고 있다. 그러나 실제 농업용수 공급사업과 관련된 타당성분석 사례를 살펴보면 편익항목의 설정, 분석방법 및 절차에서 일관성이 없는 경우가 많고, 이처럼 일관성이 결여된 분석은 사업의 타당성을 충분히 제시하지 못하게 되며, 결과적으로 사업의 신뢰도를 잃게 되어 투자의 우선순위에서 밀려나는 결과를 초래하게 된다. 본 연구에서는 편익산정에 앞서 농업용수 공급이 가지는 정성적인 가치를 생산측면, 소득/소비측면, 고용측면, 식량안보측면, 환경측면으로 구분하였고, 이 가운데, 편익산정 시 반영할 항목으로 생산증대편익과 가뭄피해 저감편익을 제시하였다. 본 연구는 농업용수 편익산정 방향을 제시함으로써 타당성조사 시 편익을 보다 실제적이고, 적극적으로 반영하고자 하였고, 향후 관련 사업의 추진 시 사업이 갖는 타당성을 보다 현실적으로 반영하는 데 기여할 것이라 판단된다.