• Title/Summary/Keyword: 투자리스크

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A Study on Characteristic Analysis of Major Issues in Negotiating Concession Agreement for BTO Projects Using AHP (계층화분석법에 의한 BTO 민간투자사업 협상의 주요쟁점 특성분석에 관한 고찰)

  • Roh, Tae-Ho;Kim, Jong-Won;Lim, Chang-Sik;Lee, Jong-Chool
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2008
  • Both competent authorities and private entrepreneurs face plenty of risks when negotiating BTO(Build Transfer Operation) methods of PPI(Private Participations in Infrastructures) projects. Also, success and failure of projects largely depend on the concession agreement contract. In this study, for more efficient negotiation, major issues are examined, and quantitatively analyzed to find out not only the relationship but also the characteristics of which these issues share. Questionnaire research was conducted through both research and by experts who were divided into an ordering agency, design company and constructor. Characteristics of major issues were quantitatively analyzed using the Likert index method, ANOVA(ANalysis of VAriance) and AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process) analysis. Case studies were examined in order to estimate construction cost, rates of return, government finance support, level of operation-revenues guarantees, estimating operational costs and usage fees. With these 6 items, relative priority, relative impression which is sensible to risk and extent of difficulty in presenting data which is objective were quantitatively analyzed by the ordering agency, design company and constructor groups. From the analysis, there were some similarities between the design company and constructor groups while there was less of similarities between the ordering agency and design company or constructor. The government is diversifying the methods of project promotion, and PPI project from infrastructure-centered to public culture facilities are being expand. The current study will provide not only supporting efficient negotiation but also revitalizing PPI projects.

A Study on Investment Determinants by Investment Size of Startup Accelerators (스타트업 액셀러레이터의 투자 규모별 투자결정요인에 대한 연구)

  • Heo, Joo-Yeun;Jeong, Seung-Hwa
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.187-219
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    • 2021
  • Startup accelerators, a new type of investment entity, have emerged as a way to solve the difficulties of early startups and existing investment methods with high risk. With the visible performances of these startup accelerators on the success of startups, medium and large accelerator companies have emerged, along with the increasing size of seed money they invest in. In addition, differences between small and medium&large accelerator companies are emerging. Therefore, startups need informations on what factors to prepare for attracting startup accelerators' investment. Accelerators also need determinant criteria to select startups as the amount of investment grows. However, the study on this subject is not currently being conducted. Therefore, we conducted the study through dividing the average amount of seed money into small and medium & large-sized investment groups and examined the differences in major investment determinants, investment purposes, and major accelerating programs. As the results of this study, small investment groups could be subdivided into 'consulting-oriented accelerators' and medium- and large-sized investment groups into 'investment-oriented accelerators'. In addition, major services and investment purposes and investment decision criteria vary depending on the size of the investment. I think these findings will be good standards for accelerator companies, startups in need of their help, and follow-up researchers.

The case study on the ODA business in Mozambique (모잠비크 ODA 투자 사례 연구)

  • Kim, ShangMoon;Jang, SeokWon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.85-85
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    • 2018
  • 국내 물시장의 포화상태 도래로 정부는 수자원 마스터 플랜 수립, 타당성 조사 등 물 관련 해외 프로젝트 발굴을 위한 지원체계를 강화하고, ODA 시장을 활용한 국내 기업의 해외시장 진출을 장려하고 있다. 한편 대륙별 ODA 시장규모를 살펴보면, 아프리카 시장이 전체 ODA 시장의 34%를 차지하며 가장 큰 시장을 형성하고 있을뿐만 아니라 연평균 4~5%의 지속적인 경제성장과, 인프라 수요 증가 등으로 시장으로써의 미래 전망이 밝다. 이에, 본 논고에서는 ODA 투자규모 중 가장 큰 시장을 형성하고 있는 아프리카 시장 중 모잠비크 물 사업을 중심으로 참여주체 및 재원 유형 등에 관하여 살펴보았다. 검토 결과, 모잠비크 시장은 첫째, ODA 물 사업 관련 향후 시장 전망이 매우 밝은 것으로 조사되었으며. 둘째, 모잠비크 정부 차원에서 다양한 투자자에 의한 사업 참여를 장려함에 따라 신규 사업을 준비하는 해외 사업자의 경우 결합금융 및 평행금융 그리고 결합금융과 평행금융이 혼재된 혼합금융 방식을 도입하는 것이 현지 시장 진출 및 리스크 분산에 도움이 되는 것으로 나타났다.

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A Study for New Paradigm Settlement on Business Security Management: Focus on Global Business (산업보안관리에 관한 뉴패러다임의 정립: 글로벌 비즈니스를 중심으로)

  • Yu, Hyung-Chang
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.39
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    • pp.355-386
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    • 2014
  • Current business environment asks the fundamental changes about business security. The essences of these changes are that the security management of today's global business is important task of managers and the security practitioner is professional who needs very specialized education and training with business thinking. Rapid process of globalization of global village tore down the business limit that was restricted on the geological areas' limitation. Rapid business environments' change that is driving depends on development of science and technology with globalization needs new paradigm to keep business continuity. With the process of globalization, Korea, which importance is gradually increasing in the national economy, has trade dependent economic system, which keeps power of national economy through trade, so Korean economic tendency is accelerating. To keep competitiveness in global market, new strategy that is different with existing domestic business management is necessary. That is, capacity of coping with outside risk in domestic business management is established in some degree, but business activities in foreign countries faces at numerous unexpected risks that differ from country to country such as difference with the custom, changes of corporate governance etc. To cope with these new risks effectively, new paradigm for business risk is necessary. Especially, flexibility of thinking like new paradigm is necessary to cope with new security risk effectively. To cope with security risk that occurs in the new business environment effectively and competes against international company in global market, company management and members' changes of cognition about security and innovative changes in security policy is necessary. In the basement of these changes, there is expansion of business security tasks, improvement of report line, enhancement of professionalism and status of security officers, variation of hands-on workers and increasing of investment to the security etc.

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2019년 거시경제 전망

  • Han, Jeong-Min;Min, Seong-Hwan
    • The Optical Journal
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    • s.173
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    • pp.38-44
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    • 2019
  • 올해 국내 실물경기는 수출 증가세가 점차 둔화되고, 내수도 소비의 둔화와 투자의 감소 전환 등의 영 향으로 완연한 하락세를 보였다. 내수는 설비투자와 건설투자가 크게 감소하면서 급속한 조정 양상을 보이고 있으며, 소비도 연 2%대 증가율로 떨어지면서 둔화세를 기록하고 있다. 수출은 물량의 증가세가 유지되고 있으나, 단가는 기저효과로 인한 유가상승 폭의 축소 등의 영향으로 상승률이 떨어지면서 증가세가 둔화되었다. 2019년 세계경제는 선진권의 경기둔화와 개도권의 성장률 정체가 예상되는 가운데 하방 리스크 요인으로 인해 제한적 성장이 예상된다. 선진권은 미국경제의 성장률 하락이 예상되는 한편, 일본과 유로권도 전년보다는 약간 낮은 성장률이, 중국은 연 6%대 초반까지 성장률 하락이 예상된다. 국제유가는 글로벌 경기 둔화에 따른 원유의 수요 감소와 미 달러화의 가치 상승 등 금융 요인이 하방 압력으로 작용하나, OPEC의 감산 지속과 지정학적 불안정성이 상승 요인으로 작용하면서 연평균 보합이 예상된다. 환율은 미 달러화의 강세기조가 2019년 상반기까지 이어질 것으로 예상되지만, 하반기에는 유럽 등지의 통화긴축 전환과 미국경기 둔화 등의 영향으로 달러화가 약세로 전환하면서 연평균 기준 소폭 상승할 것으로 기대된다. 2019년 국내경제는 수출과 투자가 글로벌 경기 둔화 등의 영향으로 소폭 증가에 그치고, 소비가 전년대비 둔화세를 보이면서 2018년보다 약간 낮은 2.6%의 성장률이 예상된다. 소비는 실질소득 감소와 고용 부진 등이 예상되고, 대외 불확실성으로 인한 체감경기 약화로 증가세가 둔화되나, 보건 복지 고용의 지출 확대, 유류세 인하 등 정부 정책은 실질구매력 제고에 긍정적 요인으로 작용할 전망이다. 설비투자는 대외 불확실성과 대내 구조적 취약성 등의 영향으로 인해 제한적인 증가세가 예상되며, 건설투자도 정부의 부동산시장 안정화 대책과 SOC예산 감축 등의 영향으로 감소세가 이어질 전망이다. 수출은 세계경기의 성장세 둔화로 인해 수출물량이 소폭 증가에 그치고, 반도체의 가격 하락과 국제유가의 횡보 전망 등으로 수출단가도 하락 압력이 커지면서 2018년 보다 낮은 3.7%의 증가율이 예상된다.

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A Study on the Dispute Resolution of MIGA in the Investment Guarantee for Developing Countries (개발도상국 투자에서 MIGA의 분쟁해결제도에 관한 고찰)

  • Yu, Byoung Yook
    • THE INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE & LAW REVIEW
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    • v.60
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    • pp.79-106
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    • 2013
  • The world is significant increasing investment volume into developing countries from foreign investors. Foreign financial capital is searching in interesting place among the emerging market. However foreign investors put still their experience in the economical and social crisis with political risks in the host countries. MIGA entered into the political risks insurance market which has one of the basic matter of sponsored the private investment guarantee programs. They put guarantee or covering risks of currency inconvertibility, expropriation, breach of contract and political violence. In the case contracts of guarantee concluded between investor and MIGA which are disputes in relation to such MIGA service contract, it should be settled by negotiation, conciliation and arbitration under the convention establishing the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency(MIGA). All disputes within the scope to states and investor of MIGA members shall be settled in accordance with the procedure set out in the convention. Recently, MIGA is opening the office in Seoul to strengthen joint efforts between MIGA and Korea. It will be a good chance to consider sustainable improvement and dispute solutions for emerging countries in foreign investment to the korean investors.

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Performance Prediction Model for Public-Private Partnership Projects Considering Stakeholders' Profitability (참여자별 수익성을 고려한 민간투자사업 성과예측 모델)

  • Yeo, Dong Hoon;Yu, Giwon;Lee, Kang-Wook;Han, Seung-Heon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.471-480
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    • 2015
  • The market of public-private partnership (PPP) projects has reduced from 9.4 trillion won in 2007 to 4.5 trillion won in 2012. However, the need of PPP projects is brought up by a massive down scale of government financial business. Previous studies regarding PPP projects mostly evaluate profitability from the financial perspective or analyze risk factors as a whole. Although PPP projects generally have complex structure involving diverse stakeholders, such as contractor, financial investor, and special purpose company (SPC) operators, existing studies have rarely considered the different viewpoints of PPP project stakeholders. Therefore, purpose of this study is to develop a structural equation model (SEM) considering the diverse stakeholders of PPP projects. To this end, the authors first reviewed the organizational structure of PPP projects. Next, the identification of the factors affecting project profitability are done via comprehensive literature reviews. After that, we conducted in-depth interviews and questionnaire surveys to reflect stakeholders' perspectives (contractors, financial investors, and SPC operators). As a result, a SEM model is developed to analyze direct and indirect effect on the PPP project performances. Finally, using the analysis results, relevant implications and directions for improvements are discussed. The prediction of the business performance of contractor, financial investor, and SPC operator is expect to be possible through the model developed and supports the strategy deduction that is appropriate for the participants.

The Impact of the Increase in Institutional Distance on the Flow of Cross-border VC Investment: In the Context of the Adoption of Euro by European Union (제도적 거리가 해외벤처투자에 미치는 영향: 유로존 출범 시 영국의 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Yujin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.43-54
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigates the causal impact of the increase in institutional distance between two geographic regions on the flow of cross-border Venture Capital (VC) between the regions. While cross-border VCs are believed to have competitive advantages at identifying and managing promising startups in a local market compared to local counterparts, the discrepancy in institutional characteristics between two markets exacerbates the difficulty of credible information exchange and negotiation, significantly increasing transaction cost related to a cross-border venture capital investment. This study conducts a difference-in-difference analysis to examine the relationship between institutional distance and the flow of cross-border VC investment using the fact that the official adoption of the Euro currency by member countries of the European Union except the UK created an institutional chasm between the UK and other EU member countries. The outcomes of the analysis suggests that UK-based VCs significantly decreased the VC investment into EU-based startups and that EU-based VCs reduced the investment into UK-based startups. The results have meaningful implications for understanding the impact of the change in institutional difference on cross-border VC investment, which seems to increasingly take place with the recent trend of de-globalization and the rise of protectionism.

A Study on Risk Parity Asset Allocation Model with XGBoos (XGBoost를 활용한 리스크패리티 자산배분 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Younghoon;Choi, HeungSik;Kim, SunWoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 2020
  • Artificial intelligences are changing world. Financial market is also not an exception. Robo-Advisor is actively being developed, making up the weakness of traditional asset allocation methods and replacing the parts that are difficult for the traditional methods. It makes automated investment decisions with artificial intelligence algorithms and is used with various asset allocation models such as mean-variance model, Black-Litterman model and risk parity model. Risk parity model is a typical risk-based asset allocation model which is focused on the volatility of assets. It avoids investment risk structurally. So it has stability in the management of large size fund and it has been widely used in financial field. XGBoost model is a parallel tree-boosting method. It is an optimized gradient boosting model designed to be highly efficient and flexible. It not only makes billions of examples in limited memory environments but is also very fast to learn compared to traditional boosting methods. It is frequently used in various fields of data analysis and has a lot of advantages. So in this study, we propose a new asset allocation model that combines risk parity model and XGBoost machine learning model. This model uses XGBoost to predict the risk of assets and applies the predictive risk to the process of covariance estimation. There are estimated errors between the estimation period and the actual investment period because the optimized asset allocation model estimates the proportion of investments based on historical data. these estimated errors adversely affect the optimized portfolio performance. This study aims to improve the stability and portfolio performance of the model by predicting the volatility of the next investment period and reducing estimated errors of optimized asset allocation model. As a result, it narrows the gap between theory and practice and proposes a more advanced asset allocation model. In this study, we used the Korean stock market price data for a total of 17 years from 2003 to 2019 for the empirical test of the suggested model. The data sets are specifically composed of energy, finance, IT, industrial, material, telecommunication, utility, consumer, health care and staple sectors. We accumulated the value of prediction using moving-window method by 1,000 in-sample and 20 out-of-sample, so we produced a total of 154 rebalancing back-testing results. We analyzed portfolio performance in terms of cumulative rate of return and got a lot of sample data because of long period results. Comparing with traditional risk parity model, this experiment recorded improvements in both cumulative yield and reduction of estimated errors. The total cumulative return is 45.748%, about 5% higher than that of risk parity model and also the estimated errors are reduced in 9 out of 10 industry sectors. The reduction of estimated errors increases stability of the model and makes it easy to apply in practical investment. The results of the experiment showed improvement of portfolio performance by reducing the estimated errors of the optimized asset allocation model. Many financial models and asset allocation models are limited in practical investment because of the most fundamental question of whether the past characteristics of assets will continue into the future in the changing financial market. However, this study not only takes advantage of traditional asset allocation models, but also supplements the limitations of traditional methods and increases stability by predicting the risks of assets with the latest algorithm. There are various studies on parametric estimation methods to reduce the estimated errors in the portfolio optimization. We also suggested a new method to reduce estimated errors in optimized asset allocation model using machine learning. So this study is meaningful in that it proposes an advanced artificial intelligence asset allocation model for the fast-developing financial markets.

A Study on Diversification Effect of Investment Portfolio with Non-financial Asset - Based on Music Royalties Fractional Investment (비금융자산이 편입된 포트폴리오의 분산효과에 대한 연구 - 음악저작권 조각투자를 중심으로)

  • Chung, Inyoung;Lee, Won-Boo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.10
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    • pp.691-702
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    • 2022
  • This study verifies the diversification effect when non-financial asset such as fractional music royalties investment which is recently get interest from masses, is included in traditional global asset allocation portfolio. From Jan 2019 when Music Royalties index is announced to Jun 2022, compared traditional global asset allocation portfolio and the portfolio included with music royalties. To eliminate the enhancement effect from portfolio strategy itself rather than including non-financial asset, used the four basic portfolio strategy such as buy & hold, constant rebalanced, mean variance, risk parity. As a result, all the portfolios included with music royalties shows less risk with higher returns. This means the sharpe ratio has enhanced and that results the portfolio diversification effect is placed. The empirical analysis of the study found academic significance in that the portfolio included with music royalties investment has diversification effect, and show the possibilities the not only on the music royalties, other non-financial asset can be shown the portfolio diversification effect.