• Title/Summary/Keyword: 투자리스크

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A Study on Comparative Analysis of Socio-economic Impact Assessment Methods on Climate Change and Necessity of Application for Water Management (기후변화 대응을 위한 발전소 온배수 활용 양식업 경제성 분석)

  • Lee, Sangsin;Kim, Shang Moon;Um, Gi Jeung
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2011
  • In order to resolve the problem of change in global climate which is worsening as days go by and to preemptively cope with strengthened restriction on carbon emission, the government enacted 'Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth' in 2010 and selected green technology and green industry as new national growth engines. For this reason, the necessity to use the un-utilized waste heat across the whole industrial system has become an issue, and studies on and applications of recycling in the agricultural and fishery fields such as cultivation of tropical crops and flatfishes by utilizing the waste heat and thermal effluent generated by large industrial complexes including power plants are being actively carried out. In this study, we looked into the domestic and overseas examples of having utilized waste heat abandoned in the form of power plant thermal effluent, and carried out economic efficiency evaluation of sturgeon aquaculture utilizing thermal effluent of Yeongwol LNG Combined Cycle Power Plant in Gangwon-do. In this analysis, we analyzed the economic efficiency of a model business plan divided into three steps, starting from a small scale in order to minimize the investment risk and financial burden, which is then gradually expanded. The business operation period was assumed to be 10 years (2012~2021), and the NVP (Net Present Value) and economic efficiency (B/C) for the operation period (10 years) were estimated for different loan size by dividing the size of external loan by stage into 80% and 40% based on the basic statistics secured through a site survey. Through the result of analysis, we can see that reducing the size of the external loan is an important factor in securing greater economic efficiency as, while the B/C is 1.79 in the case the external loan is 80% of the total investment, it is presumed to be improved to 1.81 when the loan is 40%. As the findings of this study showed that the economic efficiency of sturgeon aquaculture utilizing thermal effluent of power plant can be secured, it is presumed that regional development project items with high added value can be derived though this, and, in addition, this study will greatly contribute to reinforcement of the capability of local governments to cope with climate change.

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Present Status of Domestic Air Transport Industry and Policy Proposal for National Carrier's Sustainable Development (국내 항공운송산업의 현황 및 지속발전을 위한 정책제언)

  • Choi, Doo-Hwan;Hwang, Ho-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.3-34
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    • 2018
  • Korea's air transport industry has a 70-year history since Korea National Airline was establishment in October 1948. Korea has 9 airlines which have international air transport business licenses, and as of 2017, air transport performance(Domestic & International) is ranked 8th in the world. Through analysis of Korea's air transport industry, this paper examines the essential problems of the domestic air transport industry and what policies and laws should be supplemented, and presents an "Policy Directions for the Air Transport Industry" that can continue to grow into a global aviation leading country in the future. Analysis of aviation statistics shows that the nation's air transport industry has a very high growth rate, and national airlines continue to invest in sustainable growth. Furthermore, new companies are also trying to enter the market. As of November 2018, four companies applied for licenses for international air transport business, one for international air transport business (cargo) license, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is expected to decide whether to issue the license by first quarter of 2019. While some expect price reductions and consumer benefits through competition promotion, others worry about worsening airline financial structures and reducing safety investment due to competition. To sum up the problems of the nation's air transport industry, first, low-cost airlines focus only on attracting domestic demand, and thus have a weak foundation for continued growth. Second, the rapid growth in recent years has led to the lack of aviation professionals such as pilots and technicians and the saturation of slots at major airports. Third, since the financial soundness of airlines is not systematically managed, the financial situation of airlines can quickly deteriorate and the damage can be attributed to consumers. In order for the national airlines to continue to develop, the first is to focus on the endless demand of the global aviation market and to secure international competitiveness. Second, the government should support the airline infrastructure according to the size of the air transport industry, third, we will systematically nurture aviation experts who will lead the future of the nation's air transport industry, and finally, the government will have to continuously manage the financial status of airlines to prevent consumer damage in advance. Nowadays the air transport industry has become very competitive. Not only do airlines have to work hard for the sustainable development of national airlines, but all government agencies must support our airline companies in policy to win international competition.

Fundamental Economic Feasibility Analysis on the Transition of Production Structure for a Forest Village in LAO PDR (라오스 산촌마을의 생산구조전환을 위한 투자 경제성 기초 분석)

  • Lee, Bohwe;Kim, Sebin;Lee, Joon-Woo;Rhee, Hakjun;Lee, Sangjin;Lee, Joong-goo;Baek, Woongi;Park, Bum-Jin;Koo, Seungmo
    • The Journal of the Korean Institute of Forest Recreation
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.11-22
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    • 2018
  • This study analyzes the economic feasibility on the transition of production structure to increase income for a local forest village in Laos PDR. The study area was the Nongboua village in Sangthong district where the primary product is rice from rice paddy. Possible strategies were considered to increase the villagers' revenue, and Noni (Morinda citrifolia) was production in the short-term. We assumed that the project period was for 20 years for the analysis, and a total of 1,100 Noni tree was planted in 1 ha by $3m{\times}3m$ spacing. This study classified basic scenario one, scenario two, scenario three by the survival rate and purchase pirce of Noni. Generally Noni grows well. However, the seedlings' average survival rate (= production volume) was set up conservatively in this study to consider potential risks such as no production experience of Noni and tree disease. The scenario one assumed that the survival rate of Noni seedlings was 50% for 0-1 years, 60% for 0-2 years, and 70% for 3-20 years; the scenario two, 10% less, i.e., 40%, 50%, and 60%; and the scenario three, 10% less, i.e., 40%, 50%, 60% and purchase price 10% less, i.e., $0.29 to $0.26, respectively. Our analysis showed that all 3 scenarios resulted in economically-feasible IRR (internal rate of return) of 24.81%, 19.02%, and 16.30% of with a discounting rate of 10%. The B/C (benefit/cost) ratio for a unit area (1ha) was also analyzed for the three scenarios with a discounting rate of 10%, resutling in the B/C ratio of 1.71, 1.47, and 1.31. The study results showed that the Nongboua village would have a good opportunity to improve its low-income structure through planting and managing alternative crops such as Noni. Also the results can be used as useful decision-making information at a preliminary analysis level for planning other government and public investment projects for the Nonboua village.

Robo-Advisor Algorithm with Intelligent View Model (지능형 전망모형을 결합한 로보어드바이저 알고리즘)

  • Kim, Sunwoong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.39-55
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    • 2019
  • Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.

Enhancing Technology Learning Capabilities for Catch-up and Post Catch-up Innovations (기술학습역량 강화를 통한 추격 및 탈추격 혁신 촉진)

  • Bae, Zong-Tae;Lee, Jong-Seon;Koo, Bonjin
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 2016
  • Motivation and activities for technological learning, entrepreneurship, innovation, and creativity are driving forces of economic development in Asian countries. In the early stages of technological development, technological learning and entrepreneurship are efficient ways in which to catch up with advanced countries because firms can accumulate skills and knowledge quickly at relatively low risk. In the later stages of technological development, however, innovation and creativity become more important. This study aims to identify a) the factors (learning capabilities) that influence technological learning performance and b) barriers to enhancing innovation capabilities for the creative economy and organizations. The major part of this study is related to learning capabilities in the post-catch-up era. Based on a literature review and observations from Korean experiences, this study proposes a technological learning model composed of various influencing factors on technological learning. Three hypotheses are derived, and data are collected from Korean machine tool manufacturers. Intense interviews with CEOs and R&D directors are conducted using structured questionnaires. Statistical analysis, such as correlation and ANOVA are then carried out. Furthermore, this study addresses how to enhance innovation capabilities to move forward. Innovation enablers and barriers are identified by case studies and policy analysis. The results of the empirical study identify several levels of firms' learning capabilities and activities such as a) stock of technology, b) potential of technical labor, c) explicit technological efforts, d) readiness to learn, e) top management support, f) a formal technological learning system, g) high learning motivation, h) appropriate technology choice, and i) specific goal setting. These learning capabilities determine firms' learning performance, especially in the early stages of development. Furthermore, it is found that the critical factors for successful technological learning vary along the stages of technology development. Throughout the statistical and policy analyses, this study confirms that technological learning can be understood as an intrinsic principle of the technology development process. Firms perform proactive and creative learning in the late stages, while reactive and imitative learning prevails in the early stages. In addition, this study identifies the driving forces or facilitating factors enhancing innovation performance in the post catch-up era. The results of the preliminary case studies and policy analysis show some facilitating factors such as a) the strategic intent of the CEO and corporate culture, b) leadership and change agents, c) design principles and routines, d) ecosystem and collaboration with partners, and e) intensive R&D investment.

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Opportunity Tree Framework Design For Optimization of Software Development Project Performance (소프트웨어 개발 프로젝트 성능의 최적화를 위한 Opportunity Tree 모델 설계)

  • Song Ki-Won;Lee Kyung-Whan
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.12D no.3 s.99
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2005
  • Today, IT organizations perform projects with vision related to marketing and financial profit. The objective of realizing the vision is to improve the project performing ability in terms of QCD. Organizations have made a lot of efforts to achieve this objective through process improvement. Large companies such as IBM, Ford, and GE have made over $80\%$ of success through business process re-engineering using information technology instead of business improvement effect by computers. It is important to collect, analyze and manage the data on performed projects to achieve the objective, but quantitative measurement is difficult as software is invisible and the effect and efficiency caused by process change are not visibly identified. Therefore, it is not easy to extract the strategy of improvement. This paper measures and analyzes the project performance, focusing on organizations' external effectiveness and internal efficiency (Qualify, Delivery, Cycle time, and Waste). Based on the measured project performance scores, an OT (Opportunity Tree) model was designed for optimizing the project performance. The process of design is as follows. First, meta data are derived from projects and analyzed by quantitative GQM(Goal-Question-Metric) questionnaire. Then, the project performance model is designed with the data obtained from the quantitative GQM questionnaire and organization's performance score for each area is calculated. The value is revised by integrating the measured scores by area vision weights from all stakeholders (CEO, middle-class managers, developer, investor, and custom). Through this, routes for improvement are presented and an optimized improvement method is suggested. Existing methods to improve software process have been highly effective in division of processes' but somewhat unsatisfactory in structural function to develop and systemically manage strategies by applying the processes to Projects. The proposed OT model provides a solution to this problem. The OT model is useful to provide an optimal improvement method in line with organization's goals and can reduce risks which may occur in the course of improving process if it is applied with proposed methods. In addition, satisfaction about the improvement strategy can be improved by obtaining input about vision weight from all stakeholders through the qualitative questionnaire and by reflecting it to the calculation. The OT is also useful to optimize the expansion of market and financial performance by controlling the ability of Quality, Delivery, Cycle time, and Waste.

Study on the Legal Issues of New Draft of Civil Aviation Law in China (중국 민용항공법 개정 최근 동향과 주요 법적쟁점)

  • Lee, Hwa
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.177-214
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    • 2016
  • During more than 20 years of practice, Civil Aviation Law has experienced three times of amendments since it was enacted in 1995. But these revisions are limited to the technical level. The problems and limitations have become increasingly prominent in its implementation. Firstly, the civil aviation law is the result of interests game among several departments and some legal issues was left behind and the regulation was very vague as a result. Secondly, the process of aviation legislation is the process that the country has undergone profound changes and social transformation. The 20 years is long enough for the society to undergo tremendous changes and 1995 version of civil aviation law does not keep pace of development of economy. There was a serious lag between reality and the law. In order to actively promote the development of the aviation industry and overcome implementation issues of the Civil Aviation Law, Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) initiated modification procedure the law and published new draft of Civil Aviation Law in August 2016. The spirit of this modification is to learn and absorb new achievements of domestic and foreign legislation and the International Convention on civil aviation. Furthermore, the purpose of the revision is to provide favorable policy for the development of civil aviation industry and improve aviation safety and supervision, strengthen and protection of consumer rights and interests, to enhance the safety of civil aviation activities, and promote the development of general aviation. This revision concerned to the 78 articles which are revised or deleted and 24 articles added. The highlights of the draft include but not limited to the enhancement of security management, clarification of the main responsibility for production safety. And also it added the provisions related to the construction of effective tracking capability of public air transport enterprises and license system on the transport of dangerous goods. Compared with the existing civil aviation law, the draft has made a great improvements. But there are several deficiencies and limitations in the drafts. These problems need to be supplemented and perfected through further amendments in near future.

Manufacturing process and food safety analysis of sous-vide production for small and medium sized manufacturing companies: Focusing on the Korean HMR market (중소규모 생산업체의 수비드 제품 생산을 위한 공정 및 안전성 분석: 한국 HMR 시장 중심으로)

  • Choi, Eugene;Shin, Weon Sun
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2020
  • The present study identified the restrictions on the use of sous-vide products in the Korean HMR market for small and medium-sized manufacturing companies. A detailed literature review revealed that the HMR market in Korea is close to saturation. Notably, the technologically advanced products produced using sous-vide seem to display significant potential to overcome market saturation. The sous-vide method differs from conventional cooking techniques and is characterized by maintenance of food texture along with flavor enhancement. However, due to the unfamiliarity of the manufacturers with this method and the unclear food safety regulations, mass food manufacturing companies do not agree on using this method; hence, sous-vide production is usually undertaken by small/medium sized companies catering primarily through online marketing portals. This study highlights the various restrictions to the implementation of sous-vide production, and discusses several practical implications of sous-vide production that would help users of this technique enter the HMR market.

Effects of Conflict Management Strategy Within Supply Chain on Partnership and Performance (공급망 내 갈등관리전략이 파트너십과 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Ham, Yoon-Hee;Song, Sang-Hwa
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.79-105
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    • 2020
  • While individual enterprises with different objectives each other within supply chains require a variety of resources to achieve their own seeking goals and performances, it is necessary to form interdependent relationships among the enterprises to secure the resources what they need, as the individual enterprises are supposed to have limitations on such as time, space and cost to secure all the resources. In this process, conflict possibilities rise and opportunistic behaviors increase due to those environmental factors such as unbalanced information among enterprises, limited rationality, pursuit of interests, and risk aversion. Those existing studies on conflicts in the field of supply chains have limitations in that they failed to present specific conflict management strategies based on the conflict types from the perspective of the conflict resolution mechanism as the studies have made only focused on investigating the causes of conflicts and the impact of conflicts on performance. In this study, therefore, it used the TKI model of Kilmann and Thomas(1977) to subdivide the conflict management strategies in the process of transactions within supply chains by enterprises, and looked into the impact on partnership and performance according to each strategy. As the results, it showed that those types of conflict management strategies such as concession type and cooperation type had a positive(+) impact on the relationship commitment as a factor of partnership, and it was identified that the relationship commitment had a positive(+) impact on performance. In other words, it can be considered that the enterprises making use of the concession type & the cooperation type conflict management strategies under the situation of conflict would be able to have a very positive impact on their performances if they can make good relationship commitment such as investments in and efforts for the sustainable relationship along with the conflict management, while recognizing the importance of relationship. The most important meaning of this study lies on in terms of that it would be contributable to strengthening the partnership between enterprises and minimizing the risk of supply chains caused by conflicts through these results from the study.