• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2012.10a
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• pp.225-227
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• 2012

해상교통안전진단제도의 시행으로, 해상교통에 영향을 미칠 가능성이 있는 모든 건설 사업은 필히 선박운항자 관점에서 그 안전성을 검토하여야 한다. 진단제도의 정량적 평가항목 중에, 선박이 장애물이나 위험지역과의 충돌확률을 평가하는 근접도 평가항목이 있는데, 이는 항로상의 어떤 단면에서의 선박 궤적 분포가 정규 분포를 한다는 가정에 근거하고 있다. 한편, 진단제도의 또 하나의 정량적 평가기법중 하나인 해상교통류 시뮬레이션에서는, 대상 선박들의 예상 항차수로부터 선박을 통계적으로 발생시키는 기법을 사용하는데, 여기에서는 항로상의 특정 지점을 연속해서 통과하는 선박들의 시간 간격이 Poisson 분포를 따른다는 가정을 사용한다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 기본적인 가정들이 적합한지를 고찰하기 위하여, 광양 및 인천항에서 실측한 해상교통현황 조사 결과를 분석하였다.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.301-309
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• 2003

The non linear control algorithm with actuator saturation for a randomly excited oscillator has been widely explored and has shown promising results, but the probabilistic analysis of the algorithm has been rarely made due to its non-linear nature and the fact that the analytical solution of probability density function (PDF) for controlled responses does not exist. In this paper, a method for the probabilistic analysis on the non linear control algorithm with actuator saturation is proposed based on the equivalent non linear system method. Numerical examples are given to verify the approximation solution of PDF comparing to a statistically obtained PDF using a Gaussian white noise and a Kanai - Tagimi filtered Gaussian white noise.

• Journal of the Korean Recycled Construction Resources Institute
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.276-285
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• 2020

In this study, accelerated chloride diffusion tests were performed on OPC(Ordinary Portland Cement) and FA(Fly Ash) concrete considering three levels o f W/B(Water to Binder) ratio o n 1,095 curing days. The accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient and the passed charge were evaluated in accordance with Tang's method and ASTM C 1202, and the resistance performance to chloride attack improved over time. FA concrete showed excellent resistance performance against chloride penetration with help of pozzolanic reaction. As the result of the passed charge, FA concrete showed durability improvement, "low" grade to "very low" grade, but OPC concrete changed "moderate" grade to "low" grade at 1,095 curing days. After assuming the design variables used for durability design as normal distribution functions, the service life of each case was evaluated by the probabilistic analysis method based on MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation). In FA concrete, the increase of probability of durability failure was lower than that of OPC concrete with increasing time, because the time-dependent coefficient of FA concrete was up to 3.2 times higher than OPC concrete. In addition, the service life by probabilistic analysis was evaluated lower than the service life by deterministic analysis, since the target probability of durability failure was set to 10%. It is considered that more economical durability design will be possible if the mo re suitable target probability of durability failure is set for various structures through researches on actual conditions and indoor tests under various circumstances.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.47-56
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• 2020

In this study, three levels of W/B(Water to Binder) ratio (0.37, 0.42, 0.47) and substitution ratio of GGBFS (Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag) rate (0 %, 30 %, 50 %) were considered to perform RCPT (Rapid Chloride Diffusion Test) at the 1,095 aged day. Accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient and passed charge of each concrete mixture were assessed according to Tang's method and ASTM C 1202, and improving behaviors of durability performance with increasing aged days are analyzed based on the test results of previous aged days from the preceding study. As the age of concrete increases, the passed charge and diffusion coefficient have been significantly reduced, and especially the concrete specimens containing GGBFS showed a significantly more reduction than OPC(Ordinary Portland Cement) concrete specimen by latent hydraulic activity. In the case of OPC concrete's results of passed charge, at the 1,095 days, two of them were still in the "Moderate" class. So, if only OPC is used as the binder of concrete, the resistance performance for chloride attack is weak. In this study, the time-parameters (m) were derived based on the results of the accelerated chloride diffusion coefficient, and the deterministic and probabilistic analysis for service life were performed by assuming the design variable as a probability function. For probabilistic service life analysis, durability failure probabilities were calculated using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to evaluate service life. The service life of probabilistic method were lower than that of deterministic method, since the target value of PDF (Probability of Durability Failure) was set very low at 10 %. If the target value of PDF suitable for the purpose of using structure can be set and proper variability can be considered for each design variable, it is believed that more economical durability design can be made.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.15 no.5 s.66
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• pp.475-487
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• 2003

This study developed an analysis model of estimating fatigue damage using the linear elastic fracture mechanics method. Stress history occurring to an element when a truck passed over a bridge was defined as block loading and crack closure theory explaining load interaction effect was applied. Stress range frequency analysis considering dead load stress and crack opening was done. Probability of stress range frequency distribution was applied and the probability distribution parameters were estimated. The Monte Carlo simulation of generating the probability various of distribution was performed. The probability distribution of failure block numbers was obtained. With this the fatigue reliability of an element not occurring in failure could be calculated. The failure block number divided by average daily truck traffic remains the life of a day. Fatigue reliability analysis model was carried out for the welding member of cross beam flange and vertical stiffener of steel box bridge using the proposed model. Consequently, a 3.8% difference was observed between the remaining life in the peak analysis method and in the proposed analysis model. The proposed analysis model considered crack closure phase and crack retard.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.173-183
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• 1997

In this paper a method is suggested for the probabilistic analysis of impact buckling failure time of cylinder with random axisymmetric geometric imperfection under axial impact. Failure is assumed as axisymmetric radial deformation exceeds the given criteria for the first time. For the generation of random geometric initial imperfection, random field theory by mean function and autocorrelation function of geometric imperfection is used. Suggested method is useful for the treatment of the randomness of realistic geometric imperfection and can be used for the structural safety analysis of cylinder considering its effect.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.281-284
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• 2008

Estimating flood discharge is important because a very large scale of damage on people's lives and wealth is occurred by downpour for the unusual weather change recently. Accordingly, this study derive rating-curve by using the estimated probable flood discharge although frequency analysis for Gam-stream.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.10
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• pp.857-866
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• 2009

In this study, basic data is consisted annual maximum rainfall at 56 stations that has the rainfall records more than 30years in Korea. The 14 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the basic data. The method of moments, method of maximum likelihood and probability weighted moments method are used to estimate the parameters. And 4-tests (chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer von Mises test, probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) test) are used to determine the goodness of fit of probability distributions. This study emphasizes the necessity for considering the variability of the estimate of T-year event in hydrologic frequency analysis and proposes a framework for evaluating probability distribution models. The variability (or estimation error) of T-year event is used as a criterion for model evaluation as well as three goodness of fit criteria (SLSC, MLL, and AIC) in the framework. The Jackknife method plays a important role in estimating the variability. For the annual maxima of rainfall at 56 stations, the Gumble distribution is regarded as the best one among probability distribution models with two or three parameters.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.821-831
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• 2013

As a result of recent research, it is reported that the periodic replacements criterion of rails is able to extend as grinding rail surface and using the continuous welded rail (CWR). In this study, we carried out fatigue tests on existing laid rails. Based on the test results, an S-N curve expressing the remaining life of laid rails at a fracture probability of 50% was obtained using weighted probit analysis suitable for small-sample fatigue data sets. As rails used for testing had different histories in terms of accumulated tonnage, the test data were corrected to average out the accumulated tonnage. We estimated the remaining service lives for laid rails on the urban railway using equations developed in the past to estimate rail base bending stress and that surface irregularities into consideration. Therefore, estimating the remaining service life of laid rails showed that the rail replacement period could be extended over 200 MGT, although it is necessary to remove longitudinal rail surface irregularities at welds by grinding. Also, the fatigue test results under fatigue limit, Haibach's rule appling half slope of S-N curve under the fatigue limit was considered more reasonable than modified Miner's rule for estimating rail fatigue life.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.21-28
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• 1990

In this paper, the effects of Intersymbol Interference(ISI) of Gaussian filtered minimum shift Keying (GMSK) with two-bit differential defection on the probability of error is analyzed theoretically in fast Rayleigh fading characterizing land mobile radio channels and a closed form for the probability of error is derived. Numerical results are presented for cased of interest, BT=0.25 to 0.4, taking fading rate $f_\rho$T as a parameter. It is shown that the probability of error taking the ISI of the only one adjacent bit into consideration is accurate enough to evaluate the performance of GMSK with two-bit differential detetion.