• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통계 모형

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Development of a Failure Probability Model based on Operation Data of Thermal Piping Network in District Heating System (지역난방 열배관망 운영데이터 기반의 파손확률 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyoung Seok;Kim, Gye Beom;Kim, Lae Hyun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.322-331
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    • 2017
  • District heating was first introduced in Korea in 1985. As the service life of the underground thermal piping network has increased for more than 30 years, the maintenance of the underground thermal pipe has become an important issue. A variety of complex technologies are required for periodic inspection and operation management for the maintenance of the aged thermal piping network. Especially, it is required to develop a model that can be used for decision making in order to derive optimal maintenance and replacement point from the economic viewpoint in the field. In this study, the analysis was carried out based on the repair history and accident data at the operation of the thermal pipe network of five districts in the Korea District Heating Corporation. A failure probability model was developed by introducing statistical techniques of qualitative analysis and binomial logistic regression analysis. As a result of qualitative analysis of maintenance history and accident data, the most important cause of pipeline damage was construction erosion, corrosion of pipe and bad material accounted for about 82%. In the statistical model analysis, by setting the separation point of the classification to 0.25, the accuracy of the thermal pipe breakage and non-breakage classification improved to 73.5%. In order to establish the failure probability model, the fitness of the model was verified through the Hosmer and Lemeshow test, the independent test of the independent variables, and the Chi-Square test of the model. According to the results of analysis of the risk of thermal pipe network damage, the highest probability of failure was analyzed as the thermal pipeline constructed by the F construction company in the reducer pipe of less than 250mm, which is more than 10 years on the Seoul area motorway in winter. The results of this study can be used to prioritize maintenance, preventive inspection, and replacement of thermal piping systems. In addition, it will be possible to reduce the frequency of thermal pipeline damage and to use it more aggressively to manage thermal piping network by establishing and coping with accident prevention plan in advance such as inspection and maintenance.

An Empirical Study of Financial Analyst's Forecasting Activities on the Firm's Operating Performances (기업실적에 대한 재무분석가의 예측활동에 관한 실증연구)

  • Kwak, Jae-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.93-124
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    • 2003
  • This paper studies the financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance during the period from 1999 to 2003. In this study, financial analyst's forecasting activities are focused on the sales, operating income and net income and financial analyst's forecasting accuracy, forecasting revising patterns and forecasting activities to the unexpected firm's operating performance are studied. Some empirical findings in this study are as follows. First, standard estimate error on the sales, operating income and net income are all significantly negative value and so financial analyst's forecast on the firm's operating performance are upwardly biased. Second, domestic financial analyst's forecasting activities is relatively more accuracy than foreign financial analyst's forecasting activities. Third, forecasting time is more close to the end of the operating performance announcement day, forecasting activities are more accuracy. Fourth, comparing with individual financial analyst's forecast, consensus forecast is more accuracy. Fifth, in the comparative forecasting activities study according to the prior firm's operating performance, financial analyst's forecasting revision activities are found to be upward or downward. Sixth, financial analysts overreact in the sales forecast and underreact in the operating income and net income forecast. Seventh, in the empirical analysis on the Easterwood-Nutt's test model(1999) which the firm's performance change are divided into the expected performance change and the unexpected performance change, it is found that financial analyst's forecasting activities on the firm's operating performance are systematically optimistic.

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Analysis of Relationship between Sanitary Knowledge and Sanitary Management Performance of School Foodservice Employees in Gyeongnam (경남 일부지역 학교급식 조리종사자의 위생지식과 위생관리 수행도의 관계 분석)

  • An, Jeong-Mi;Kim, Hyun-Ah
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.1139-1147
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    • 2013
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the relationship between sanitary knowledge score and sanitary management performance among school foodservice employees. For this purpose, a paper-based questionnaire was developed and distributed to 300 school foodservice employees in Jinhae-gu, Changwon from May 13 to June 10 in 2009. A total of 276 responses were received and analyzed. The results of this study were as follows. The sanitary knowledge score of school foodservice employees was 16.60 (total score: 20). Their sanitary management performance level was 4.77 (based on a 5-point Likert scale). We found that sanitary management performance level of high sanitary knowledge score group was significantly higher than that of low sanitary knowledge score group (P<0.001). There was a significant positive correlation between sanitary knowledge score and sanitary management performance of school foodservice employees (P<0.01). Regression analysis showed that sanitary knowledge score of school foodservice employees had a positive effect on sanitary management performance (P<0.001). It implies that as school foodservice employees' sanitary knowledge increased, their sanitary management performance increased. In conclusion, to improve the sanitary quality of school foodservice, school foodservice employees' sanitary management performance level should be increased by improving their sanitary knowledge. So, a systematic and consistent sanitary education program should be conducted for school foodservice employees.

A Study on the Perception of Preferences of Corporate Recruitment for Start-up Experiencer: Focusing on the Comparison between the Job Seekers with Start-up Experiences and the General Job Seekers (창업경험자에 대한 기업채용 선호도의 인식조사: 창업경험자와 일반구직자 비교를 중심으로)

  • Hue, Je-In
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.209-224
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    • 2020
  • This study started from the question of whether the preference of corporate recruitment can be achieved without any difference between the start-up experiencer and the general job seekers. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to identify the factors related to start-ups that affect the preference of job seekers for companies, and to analyze the differences in the factors related to start-ups between general job seekers and job seekers with start-up experience. Third, it is to see the difference in the preference for employment between job seekers with start-up experiences and general job seekers. The independent variables of the research model were entrepreneurship, motivation for start-up (job search), and characteristics of the job seekers (founder). The dependent variables were job preference, and the moderating variables were presented as job seekers' classification (job seekers with start-up experience vs. general job seekers). The subjects of the study were personnel managers of 100 companies with more than 5 years of establishment and 100 new companies with less than 5 years of establishment. The questionnaire was distributed in two types, and 189 respondents, including 101 job seekers with start-up experiences and 88 general job seekers, were finally used for analysis. The results of the study were as follows. First, as a result of multiple regression analysis on both experienced start-up experiencers and general job seekers, only entrepreneurship had an effect on preference for recruitment. Second, the moderating effect of job seekers' classification was found only in the relationship between motivation for start-up and preference for employment. Third, the result of multiple regression analysis based on the start-up experiencers showed that the relationship between the motivation for start-up, the preference for recruitment, the characteristics of founders and the preference for recruitment was statistically significant. On the other hand, the characteristics of the founder and the preference for employment were rejected. Fourth, the results of the study based on general job seekers showed that the motivation for job search decreased the preference for employment. The study did not provide the results of differences in recognition between different industries, traditional enterprises and venture businesses due to the limitation of small examples. There is no clear definition of start-up experiencers either. However, it is meaningful to suggest the implications of what preparations should be made when the start-up experiencers close their start-ups and turn their career into employment and to help them to accurately recognize the importance of entrepreneurship. It also provides the preference of the general job seekers for the company, the preparation for successful employment, and the implications for the direction of the future start-up revitalization.

Electromagnetic Wave in all Base Stations (다기지국 환경에서 전자파 노출량)

  • Cho, Euy-Hyun;Park, Jeong-Kyu
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.26-44
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    • 2011
  • The Study was carreid out to see whether the intensity of electromagnetic waves in each floor of a building where the sharing base station has been established is harmful to a human body, and to expect the intensity of the waves in the building. The investigate was performed on both of sharing base station either with many scatterers or without any of them. To satisfy the international standard and the domestic TTA standard, rms for each of the electromagnetic wave of every floor in the building with the station was measured from 3 location of 3 heights(1.1m,1.5m, and 1.7m). Max of the measured rsm from the each of the frequencies in the nine location was confirmed to be 48.12%(the rooftop measured value) at most, compared to the human body protection standard. The value was confirmed to satisfy the human body protection standard for each frequency. And the total value of the calculated exposure indexes for each frequency was determined to be more than 7 times lower at most, which was 0.1445, compared to the 1 standard. Since P value in both of 868MHz and 2.14GHz electromagnetic waves intensity for each base station and floor was less than 0.05, it was revealed to be meaningful, and since R-Sq(adj) value showed a value more than 50%, the regression equation was determined to fully absorb the data information. However, although the P value of both of 868MHz and 2.14GHz electromagnetic waves intensities under the integrating terms of the base station data and the floor data was showed to be less than 0,05, since R-Sq(adj) value of 868MHz electromagnetic waves intensity presented a value smaller than 50%(34.15%), it was determined that the 868MHz electromagnetic waves intensity is very much influenced by an environment with a base station. Because the electromagnetic waves intensity of 2.14GHz show R-Sq(adj) value bigger then 50%(51.8%), The regression equation model of 2.14GHz electromagnetic waves intensity was confirmed to be proper. It also turned out not to be effected by the surrounding environment near a building with the base station and the intensity of electromagnetic waves for each floor of such building was expectable by the regression equation.

The Impact of Amalgam Exposure an Urinary Mercury Concentration in Children (어린이의 구강 내 아말감 노출이 요중 수은농도에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Eun-Suk;Jin, Hye-Jung;Kim, Eun-Kyong;Im, Sang-Uk;Song, Keun-Bae;Choi, Youn Hee
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.7-14
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to evaluate the impact of varying exposure to dental amalgam on urinary mercury levels in children by measuring the number of amalgam-filled teeth and the variance of mercury concentration in urine over a period of 2 years. A total of 317 (male 158, female 159) elementary school children (1st~4th graders) attending 2 schools in urban regions participated in this study. At 6-month intervals, 4 oral examinations were conducted to check any variance in the conditions of dental caries and the status of dental fillings. Also, urine tests were conducted followed by a questionnaire survey. To elucidate the factors potentially affecting the mercury concentration in urine, t-test, ANOVA, chi-square test and a mixed model were used for the analysis. Regarding the status of dental fillings in line with examination time periods, deciduous teeth had more amalgam-filled surfaces than those filled with resin, whereas permanent teeth had more resin-filled surfaces than those filled with amalgam. A significant relevance was found between the exposure to dental amalgam and urinary mercury levels. Specifically, subjects whose teeth surfaces had been filled with dental amalgam showed higher urinary mercury levels than those who had no dental amalgam fillings. Based on the analysis using the mixed model, the increase in the number of teeth surfaces filled with amalgam was found to be the factor affecting the increase in urinary mercury levels. The urinary mercury levels were found to be highly associated with the exposure to dental amalgam. The more the teeth surfaces filled with amalgam, the higher the urinary mercury levels. Hence, even a trace of dental amalgam fillings can liberate mercury, affecting the variance in the urinary mercury levels. These findings suggest that some criteria or measures should be developed to minimize the exposure to dental amalgam. Moreover, relevant further studies are warranted.

The Effect of After-school Programs on Science-related Attitude and Learning Achievement of High School Students : In the Unit of 'The Change of Weather' (방과후 학교 프로그램이 고등학교 학생들의 과학에 대한 태도와 학업성취도에 미치는 영향 : '날씨의 변화' 단원을 중심으로)

  • Keum, Kyung-Jin;Yoon, Ill-Hee
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.71-86
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to apply After-school programs related to sub-chapter 'The Change of Weather', and thereby to investigate the effect of After-school program on science-related attitude and learning achievement of students, and interaction between treatment methods and students' learning ability. The subjects of study consisted of 2nd grade students of sixty four students in high school. Sixty four students were divided into two categories by experimental and control groups on the basis of midterm examination before teaching treatment. The experimental groups have received four After-school programs including making models of a weather front, measurement of wind, measurement of temperature and the dew point, making a three-dimensional weather chart which were developed by researcher for six times. The control groups have received the instruction through the conventional teaching methods. Seventy questions within seven frameworks of TOSRA have been used in this study as an evaluation instrument of science-related attitude. Learning achievement has been evaluated using an instrument developed by researcher. The scores of both pre-test and post-test were estimated by ANCOVA. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. (1) After-school programs were more effective in progressing the three categories of science related attitude of high school students i.e. pleasure of science class(p<.05), reception of scientific attitude(p<.01), attitude about a science research(p<.05) than conventional teaching methods. (2) Experimental groups showed statistically significant improvement on learning achievement than control groups(p<.05). (3) The effect of treatment methods on students' learning ability has been improved in experimental groups more positively than control groups(p<.05). High level students in experimental groups showed significant improvement on learning achievement than low level students according to the representing profile plot. But there were no significant interaction between treatment methods and students' learning ability(p>.05) In conclusion, the After-school programs have positive effect on the improvement of science related attitude and learning achievement.

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Improvement of Egg Tray Design to Decrease Eggshell Damage (계란(鷄卵)의 난각파손(卵殼破損) 방지(防止)를 위한 난좌(卵座) 개발(開發)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Ha, J.K.;Lee, S.J.;Park, Y.Y.;Hwang-Bo, J.;Chung, S.B.
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 1994
  • This study was carried out to investigate the effects of shperical surface of eggs tray and eggshell on breaking strength of eggs for the development of a new egg tray design to prevent eggshell breakage. The results obtained were as follows: 1. According to the results obtained from investigation on the types of 22 egg trays collected from 9 countries(USA, Italy, France, Thailand, Japan, Netherland, Russia, Korea and Swiss), all egg trays except those from Korea were different in their types. 2. According to the determination of breaking strength for 4 pilot egg trays, type B and D were high in breaking strength. Trays B and D which would fit with the spherical surface of egg so that they could increase breaking strength were most recommendable. Breaking strength was not increased even though egg tray was strong. Thickness of eggshell of experimental eggs used in this experiment have no significance (P>0.05). 3. When eggs are packed and transported in egg tray, the breaking strength will depend on how much spherical surface of egg are covered by the spherical surface of the egg tray. Therefore, the inner spherical surface of egg tray must fit to the outer spherical surface of eggs when the egg tray is manufactured. 4. At present, there is only one type of egg tray being used in Korea despite the various egg sizes. In order to minimize the eggshell breakage, however, proper sizes or types of egg trays should be developed for each different categories of the egg size.

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A Case Study on the Exogenous Factors affecting Extra-large Egg Production in a Layer Farm in Korea (산란계 사육농장 특란 생산에 미치는 외부 요인 분석을 위한 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Hyun-Chang;Jang, Woo-Whan
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.99-104
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the production of extra-large egg and assess the impacts of exogenous factors in feeding the layer chicken. The main results of this study are as follows; First, feeding rations on the basics of statistics, internal maximum and minimum temperature and, the age at first egg affect the production of extra-large egg. Second, implicating the standardized coefficients from the conclusion of regression model estimating suggest that the amount of feed has the greatest impact on production followed by the age at first egg. Third, by using the elasticity of output and the volatility in the production, the result suggest that among the independent variable factors in the external volatility, the biggest one goes to feed ration, and the age at first egg follows. In order to control the production volatility in the extra-large egg production of the farms, it is necessary to manage an efficient feeding based on feed ration, age at first egg and, the maximum and minimum temperature inside the farm. Taken together, the results demonstrates that it should be concentrated by controlling the exogenous factors affecting extra large egg production and the management system construct, to increase extra-large egg production and the income of farmers at the same time.

Adaptability of zirconia core fabricated by cold isostatic pressing (냉간 정수압 성형법으로 제작된 지르코니아 코어의 적합도에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Yoon-Jeong;Yun, Kwi-Dug;Kim, Hyun-Seung;Park, Sang-Won
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.143-150
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to fabricate the new zirconia block (CNU block) and to evaluate fit of core and porcelain veneered zirconia crown. Material and methods: The experimental blocks were fabricated from the commercial ytrria-stabilized zirconia powder (KZ-3YE Type A). The powder was uniaxial pressing and the green bodies were conducted using the Cold Isostatic Pressing. The zirconia blocks were presintered at $1040^{\circ}C$ and the final sintering was performed at $1450^{\circ}C$. The Kavo Everest ZS $blank{(R)}$ (KaVo, Biberach/ $Ri{\beta}$.) was used as a control group. The linear shrinkage of CNU block and Kavo block were compared. Twenty-one cores for porcelain veneered crowns were fabricated with CAD/CAM system ($Everest{(R)}$, Biberach/ $Ri{\beta}$.). Group I; seven cores fabricated from Kavo blocks, Group II; seven cores fabricated from CNU blocks, Group III; seven cores from CNU blocks and porcelain veneering for crowns. All specimens were cemented and sectioned into two planes; diagonal and bucco-lingual. The measurement of the marginal, internal, and occlusal fit was carried out using SEM ($S-4800^{(R)}$) at $30{\times}$. The results were analyzed by one-way ANOVA test. Results: The linear shrinkage of the CNU block and the KaVo block was 19.00% and 20.09%. The marginal gap of cores ($29.67{\pm}6.58{\mu}m$) fabricated from CNU blocks showed significantly smaller than that of the cores of Kavo blocks ($36.84{\pm}7.18{\mu}m$) (P < .05). The internal gaps of the porcelain veneered crowns ($32.23{\pm}6.33{\mu}m$) were larger than those of the other two groups ($37.57{\pm}6.81{\mu}m$ and $38.14{\pm}6.81{\mu}m$). Conclusion: No statistically significant difference was found in between experimental groups and control group. The experimental groups in marginal gap showed significantly smaller than the control group.