• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통계적 해석 모델 검증

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A Study on the Statistical Model Validation using Response-adaptive Experimental Design (반응적응 시험설계법을 이용하는 통계적 해석모델 검증 기법 연구)

  • Jung, Byung Chang;Huh, Young-Chul;Moon, Seok-Jun;Kim, Young Joong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.347-349
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    • 2014
  • Model verification and validation (V&V) is a current research topic to build computational models with high predictive capability by addressing the general concepts, processes and statistical techniques. The hypothesis test for validity check is one of the model validation techniques and gives a guideline to evaluate the validity of a computational model when limited experimental data only exist due to restricted test resources (e.g., time and budget). The hypothesis test for validity check mainly employ Type I error, the risk of rejecting the valid computational model, for the validity evaluation since quantification of Type II error is not feasible for model validation. However, Type II error, the risk of accepting invalid computational model, should be importantly considered for an engineered products having high risk on predicted results. This paper proposes a technique named as the response-adaptive experimental design to reduce Type II error by adaptively designing experimental conditions for the validation experiment. A tire tread block problem and a numerical example are employed to show the effectiveness of the response-adaptive experimental design for the validity evaluation.

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Statistical Calibration and Validation of Mathematical Model to Predict Motion of Paper Helicopter (종이 헬리콥터 낙하해석모델의 통계적 교정 및 검증)

  • Kim, Gil Young;Yoo, Sung Bum;Kim, Dong Young;Kim, Dong Seong;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.8
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    • pp.751-758
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    • 2015
  • Mathematical models are actively used to reduce the experimental expenses required to understand physical phenomena. However, they are different from real phenomena because of assumptions or uncertain parameters. In this study, we present a calibration and validation method using a paper helicopter and statistical methods to quantify the uncertainty. The data from the experiment using three nominally identical paper helicopters consist of different groups, and are used to calibrate the drag coefficient, which is an unknown input parameter in both analytical models. We predict the predicted fall time data using probability distributions. We validate the analysis models by comparing the predicted distribution and the experimental data distribution. Moreover, we quantify the uncertainty using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. In addition, we compare the manufacturing error and experimental error obtained from the fall-time data using Analysis of Variance. As a result, all of the paper helicopters are treated as one identical model.

Development of the Big-size Statistical Volume Elements (BSVEs) Model for Fiber Reinforced Composite Based on the Mesh Cutting Technique (요소 절단법을 사용한 섬유강화 복합재료의 대규모 통계적 체적 요소 모델 개발)

  • Park, Kook Jin;Shin, SangJoon;Yun, Gunjin
    • Composites Research
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.251-259
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, statistical volume element modeling method was developed for multi-scale progressive failure analysis of fiber reinforced composite materials. Big-size statistical volume elements (BSVEs) was considered to minimize the size effect in the micro-scale, by including as many fibers as possible. For that purpose, a mesh cutting method is suggested and adapted into the fiber model generator that creates finite element domain rapidly. The fiber defect model was also developed based on the experimental distribution of the fiber strength. The size effects from the local load sharing (LLS) are evaluated by increasing the fiber inclusion in the micro-scale model. Finally, continuum damage mechanics (CDM) model to the fiber direction was extracted from numerical analysis on BSVEs. And it was compared with strength prediction from typical representative volume element (RVE) model.

Stick-slip vibration analysis by using statistical friction model and accuracy verification of the friction model (통계적 마찰 모델을 활용한 stick-slip 진동 해석과 정확성 검증)

  • Yoo, Hong Hee;Kang, Won Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.830-832
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    • 2014
  • In this study, friction stick-slip vibration're interpretation of the phenomenon, we used a statistical model of friction. In a previous study using a definite friction factor, but to a dynamic simulation using a constantly changing during the integration time by a Monte Carlo simulation method, not the average coefficient of friction and the dynamic friction coefficient and a constant value in this study.

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초음파탐상 PD-RR Test의 통계적 신뢰도 평가(I)

  • 박익근;김현묵;박은수;박윤원;강석철;최영환
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2001.06a
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    • pp.245-255
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    • 2001
  • 원전 가동전/가동중검사 결과의 신뢰도(reliability)는 원전 배관기기의 건전성에 직결되는 것으로써 결함 발견 시 적용되는 파괴역학해석(FMA)은 비파괴검사 결과에 대한 100%의 신뢰를 전제하고 있다. 그러나 비파괴검사가 어느 정도 신뢰성을 가지고 있는지에 대한 평가가 국내에서는 거의 수행된 바가 없었다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 원전의 비파괴검사 규제 요건의 기술적 근거를 확보하고, 원전 기기 건전성 평가 및 안전성 향상을 위한 합리적 규제지침을 수립하기 위하여 국내 원전 가동중검사(ISI)에 적용되거나 일반 산업계에 적용되고 있는 초음파탐상검사에 대하여 기량검증 Round Robin Test에 의한 통계적 신뢰도를 평가하고자 한다. 이를 위해 초음파검사 PD-RRT 결과의 통계적 신뢰도 평가 모델을 고찰하고, 결함검출성능 평가, 결함크기 측정 평가, 팀 오차 분석 등 초음파검사 PD-RRT 결과의 통계적 신뢰도를 평가하였다.

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Statistical Characteristic of Mechanical Properties of Concrete (콘크리트 역학적 성질의 통계적 특성)

  • Kim, Jee-Sang;Shin, Jeong-Ho;Choi, Yeon-Wang;Moon, Jea-Heum;Kim, Joo-Hyung
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.657-660
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    • 2008
  • The mechanical properties of concrete such as compressive strength, tensile strength, and modulus of elasticity, are considerably influenced by various factors including locality. The material property prescriptions in national concrete design codes should reflect them. In Korea, they have not been studied systematically yet. A new performance-based design code is being prepared in Korea as a government-supported project and it has a plan to make new material prescriptions adopting domestic research results. As a starting point for the research on material properties, the statistical characteristics of mechanical properties of concrete are studied. In this paper, a probabilistic model of compressive strength, relationship between compressive strength and splitting tensile strength and compressive strength and elastic modulus are proposed based on experimental data.

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A Case Study for Evaluating Groundwater Condition in RMR and Q Rock Mass Classification on Bard Rock Tunnel (RMR 및 Q 분류시 지하수 조건 평가방법에 관한 사례 연구)

  • 이대혁;이철욱;김호영
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.353-361
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    • 2003
  • For RMR and Q rock mass classification at the design and construction stage, evaluation of groundwater condition is usually based upon the experience due to the restriction of available methods. Based on the results of Taejon LNG Pilot Cavern which acquire joint water pressure, inflow rate of ground water and hydraulic conductivity model, estimates from numerical analysis and analytical solutions were compared to verify each evaluation method. As the result, the Raymer(2001) approach was found to be efficient for estimating inflow rate and corresponding value.

Wedge Failure Probability Analysis for Rock Slope Based on Non-linear Shear Strength of Discontinuity (불연속면의 비선형 전단강도를 이용한 암반사면 쐐기파괴 확률 해석)

  • 윤우현;천병식
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2003
  • The stability of the designed rock slope is analysed based on two kinds of shear strength model. Besides the deterministic analysis, a probabilistic approach on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed to deal with the uncertain characteristics of the discontinuity and the results obtained from two models are compared to each other. To carry out the research of characteristics of the discontinuity, BIPS, DOM Scanline survey data and direct shear test data are used, and chi-square test is used for determining the probability distribution function. The rock slope is evaluated to be stable in the deterministic analysis, but in the probabilistic analysis, the probability of failure is more than 5%, so, it is considered that the rock slope is unstable. In the shear strength models, the probability of the failure based on the Mohr-Coulomb model(linear model) is higher than that of the Barton model. It is supported by the fact that the Mohr-Coulomb model is more sensitive to block size than the Barton model. In fact, there is no reliable way to estimate the unit cohesion of the Mohr-Coulomb model except f3r back analysis and in the case of small block failure in the slope, Mohr-Coulomb model may excessively evaluate the factor of the safety. So, the Barton model of which parameters are easily acquired using the geological survey is more reasonable for the stability of the studied slope. Also, the selection of the proper shear strength model is an important factor for slope failure analysis.

Reliability-Based Analysis for Rock Slopes Considering Failure Modes (파괴형태를 고려한 암반사면의 신뢰도해석)

  • 이인모;이명재
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.3-16
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    • 1999
  • This paper presents the results of sensitivity analysis based on an example study to verify a newly developed reliability-based model for rock slopes considering uncertainties of discontinuities and failure modes-plane, wedge, and toppling. The parameters that are needed for sensitivity analysis are the variability of discontinuity properties (orientation and strength of discontinuities), the loading conditions, and the rock slope geometry. The variability in orientation and friction angle of discontinuities, which can not be considered in the deterministic analysis, has a great influence on the rock slope stability, The stability of rock slopes including failure modes is more influenced by the selection of dip direction of cutting rock face than any other design variables, The example study shows that the developed reliability-based analysis model can reasonably assess the stability of rock slope.

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Object Detection & Targeting with Lab Block Matching (Lab 블록 매칭을 이용한 객체 탐색 및 타겟팅)

  • Lee, Jung-a;Choi, Chul;Choi, Young-Kwan;Park, Chang-Choon
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2004.05a
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    • pp.727-730
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    • 2004
  • 영상은 복잡한 객체들의 집합으로 이루어져 있기 때문에 영상에 포함된 객체를 분리하는 일은 컴퓨터 비전이나 인식 등 많은 분야에서 중요시 된다. 영상 처리 측면에서 객체를 분할하기 위해서 색상, 모양, 질감, 움직임 등 다양한 기법들이 이용되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 정확한 색상의 비교를 위해서 CIE 색상 모델을 이용하고 있으며 이것을 기반으로 객체를 추출하고 있다. 그리고 추출된 객체의 해석과 검증을 위해서 모양 기반의 분석법을 이용하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 Pan/Tilt 카메라의 타겟팅(Targeting)과 포커싱(Focusing)을 위해 영상 내에 포함되어진 객체를 검출하기 위한 방법론을 제안하고자 한다. 객체를 인식하기 위해 CIE 색상 모델을 이용한 색상 매칭 기법을 제안하고 있다. 색상의 분포를 파악하기 위해서 CIE 모델이 생성해내는 Lab 블록을 통계적인 방법으로 분석한다. 그리고 분석된 결과는 CIE 블록 매칭(Bock Matching) 기법의 기준이 되며 이것을 이용해서 후보 객체 영역(Candidate Object Area)을 추출하게 된다. 추출된 후보 객체 영역을 검증하기 위해서 모멘트를 이용한 모양 기반의 분석을 활용하고 있다.

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