• Title/Summary/Keyword: 코호트연구

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Comparison of Mortality Estimate and Prediction by the Period of Time Series Data Used (시계열 적용기간에 따른 사망력 추정 및 예측결과 비교 - LC모형과 LC 코호트효과 확장모형을 중심으로 -)

  • Jung, Kyunam;Baek, Jeeseon;Kim, Donguk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1019-1032
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    • 2013
  • The accurate prediction of future mortality is an important issue due to recent rapid increases in life expectancy. An accurate estimation and prediction of mortality is important to future welfare policies. The optimal selection of a mortality model is important to estimate and predict mortality; however, the period of time series data used is also an important issue. It is essential to understand that the time series data for mortality is short in Korea and the data before 1982 is incomplete. This paper divides the time series of Korean mortality into two sets to compare the parameter estimates of the LC model and LC model with a cohort effect by the period of data used. A modeling and prediction of the mortality index and cohort effect index as well as the evaluation of future life expectancy is conducted. Finally, some suggestions are proposed for the future prediction of mortality.

Analysing the Effects of Age, Generational Cohorts, National Identity on Supranational Regional Identity (초국가적 동아시아정체성에 대한 연령 및 세대코호트, 국가정체성의 효과분석)

  • Chi, Eunju;Kwon, Hyeok Yong
    • Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.309-330
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the life-cycle and birth cohort effect on East Asian supranational identity. This paper also explores how national identity is related with supranational identity among Koreans. Using the 2008 CCGA-EAI survey, we analyze the determinants of supranational East Asian identity. The results suggest several interesting findings. Age and national identity have positive effects on East Asian identity. Among generational cohorts, the democratization cohort were less likely than other cohorts to have East Asian identity. These findings suggest several implications. First, in Korea, unlike other countries in the Western world, the older tend to have stronger regional identity than the younger do. Second, unlike the existing literature, this paper finds that strong national identity (pride) is complementary, rather than substitutive, to supranational regional identity. This warrants further systematic research on the microfoundation on the relationship between regional integration and nationalism in Northeast Asia.

$H_2$ Receptor Antagonists and Gastric Cancer in the Elderly: A Nested Case-Control Study (노인 인구에서 $H_2$ Receptor Antagonist와 위암과의 관련성: 코호트 내 환자-대조군 연구)

  • Kim, Yoon-I;Heo, Dae-Seog;Lee, Seung-Mi;Youn, Kyoung-Eun;Koo, Hye-Won;Bae, Jong-Myon;Park, Byoung-Joo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.245-254
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    • 2002
  • Objective : To test if the intake of $H_2$ receptor antagonists ($H_2$-RAs) increases the risk of gastric cancer in the elderly. Methods : The source population for this study was drawn from the responders to a questionnaire survey administered to the Korea Elderly Pharmacoepidemiological Cohort (KEPEC), who were beneficiaries of the Korean Medical Insurance Corporation, were at least 65 years old, and residing in Busan in 1999. The information on $H_2$-RAs exposure was obtained from a drug prescription database compiled between inn. 1993 and Dec. 1994. The cases consisted of 76 gastric cancer patients, as confirmed from the KMIC claims data, the National Cancer Registry and the Busan Cancer Registry. The follow-up period was from Jan. 1993 to Dec. 1998. Cancer free controls were randomly selected by 1:4 individual matching, which took in to consideration the year of birth and gender. Information on confounders was collected by a mail questionnaire survey. The odds ratios, and their 95% confidence intervals, were calculated using a conditional logistic regression model. Results : After adjusting for a history of gastric ulcer symptoms, medication history, and body mass index, the adjusted OR (aOR) was 4.6 (95% CI=1.72-12.49). The odds ratio of long term use (more than 7 days) was 2.3 (95% CI=1.07-4.82). The odds ratio of short term use was 4.6 (95% CI=1.26-16.50). The odds ratio of parenteral use was 4.4 195% CI=1.16-17.05) and combination use between the oral and parenteral routes (aOR, 16.8; 95% CI=1.21-233.24) had the high risk of gastric cancer. The aOR of cimetidine was 1.7 (95% CI=1.04-2.95). The aOR of ranitidine was 2.0 (95% CI=1.21-3.40). The aOR of famotidine was 1.7 (95% CI=0.98-2.80). Conclusion : The intake of $H_2$-RAs might increase the risk of gastric cancer through achlorhydria in the elderly.

Subnational Population Projections of Korea Based on Interregional Migration Forecasting: A Multiregional Cohort-Component Method (지역간 인구이동의 예측을 통한 우리나라 시도별 장래 인구 추계: 다지역 코호트-요인법의 적용)

  • Lee, Sang-Il;Cho, Dae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.98-120
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    • 2012
  • The main objective of this study is to conduct subnational population projections of Korea based on a multiregional cohort-component method. This objective is accomplished by: (i) establishing a viable framework to implement the multiregional cohort-component method with reference to the Markov chain model and Rogers' multiregional population projection model; (ii) applying the established framework to subnational population projections of Korea, 2005~2030. The main results are twofold. First, the proposed method turns out to be highly valid in a methodological sense, which is seen from a high level of coincidence between the estimated and the observed. Second, the projection results turn out to be highly useful in the sense that interregional migration flow matrices are resulted for projection periods. The projected migration flows are expected to provide invaluable information for an understanding of future population change and for a formulation of policy alternatives. This study is strongly inspired by the multiregional perspective emphasizing the evolution of multiple regional populations interconnected by interregional migration flows rather than the overall national change.

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A Cohort Study on Cancer Risk by Low-Dose Radiation Exposure among Radiation Workers of Nuclear Power Plants in Korea (저준위 방사선 노출의 암 유발에 관한 국내 원전종사자 코호트 연구)

  • Lim, Young-Khi;Yoo, Keun-Young
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2006
  • The increased risk of cancer with exposure to low-dose radiation was estimated through longitudinal study for radiation workers at the nuclear power plants in Korea. The radiation dose data were collected from the Radiation Safety Management System(RSMS) of the Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Ltd(KHNP). The cancer risks with radiation exposure were evaluated in terms of relative mortality ratios(RMR) and relative incidence ratios(RIR) to the unexposed employees at the nuclear power plants, and of the standardized mortality ratios(SMR) and standardized incidence ratios(SIR). There were no significant increases of canters of all sites in the exposed group either in RIR[1.08, 95% confidence interval(CI) 0.74-1.58] or in RMR[1.21, CI 0.70-2.08]. Neither SIR[0.81, CI 0.28-0.96] nor SMR[0.86, CI 0.66-1.10] significantly deviated from 1.0 for cancers of all sites. The trend analysis did not identify evident dose-response relationship due to insufficient numbers of the cases. Consequently, it is concluded that increases in cancer risks in the radiation worker group exposed to low doses at the nuclear power plants in Korea are not identified at this time.