• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.32 no.6
• /
• pp.425-431
• /
• 2008

The future cargo transportation and traffic volume on container in Gwangyang port was forecasted by using univariate time series models in this research. And the container ship traffic was produced. The constructed models all were most adapted to Winters' additive models with a trend and seasonal change. The cargo transportation on container in Gwangyang port was estimated each about 2,756 thousand TEU and 4,470 thousand TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 7.4%, 16.2% compared with 2007. The volume per ship on container was estimated each about 675TEU and 801TEU in 2011 and 2015 by increasing each 30.3%, 54.6% compared with 2007. Also, traffic volume on container incoming in Gwangyang Port was prospected each about 4,078ships and 5,921ships in 2011 and 2015.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.24 no.2
• /
• pp.1-17
• /
• 2008

In this paper the cargo transportation were forecasted for the North Port in Busan through time series models. The cargo transportation were classified into three large groups; container, oil, general cargo. The seasonal indexes of existing cargo transportation were firstly calculated, and optimum models were chosen among exponential smoothing models and ARIMA models. The monthly cargo transportation were forecasted with applying the seasonal index in annual cargo transportation expected from the models. Thus, the cargo transportation in 2011 and 2015 were forecasted about 22,900 myriad ton and 24,654 myriad ton respectively. It was estimated that container cargo volume would play the role of locomotive in the increase of the future cargo transportation. On the other hand, the oil and general cargo have little influence upon it.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2011.11a
• /
• pp.166-169
• /
• 2011

항만간 허브항 경쟁이 극심해 지고 있는 오늘날, 컨테이너 선사는 M&A 및 전략적 제휴로 컨테이너터미널 운영사와의 가격 협상력의 우월적 지위를 갖게 되어 컨테이너터미널 운영사간 선사 및 화물유치를 경쟁을 더욱 부추기고 있다. 그러나 수요측면에서 컨테이너물동량 증가율 둔화로 컨테이너터미널에서 처리해야 할 물동량은 한정되어 있는 반면, 공급 측면에서 항만터미널의 지속적인 건설은 항만간 또는 터미널간 물량 유치경쟁을 과열시키고 있다. 특히 부산항은 신항 개장이후 북항과 신항간 물동량 유치경쟁으로 인하여 항만하역시장의 교란을 가져오고 있다. 본 연구에서는 부산항 컨테이너 항만하역시장의 구조적 특성분석과 설문조사 방법론을 통하여 향후 부산항 항만하역시장의 안정화 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 시장구조 분석결과 부산항은 한정된 처리물량과 신항의 개장으로 인한 공급과잉, 그리고 정부의 지역항만개발정책에 따른 컨테이너화물의 분산처리로 지속적인 부산항의 비중 감소로 선석당 처리물량이 감소하고 있다. 이에 따라 선사의 우월적 지위를 이용한 하역료 인하요구로 터미널운영사간에 서비스경쟁이 아닌 비협력적인 가격경쟁으로 재정수지가 악화되고 있고, 또한 '10년 외국적선사의 처리물량이 60%를 차지하고 있어 국부유출이 심각한 실정이다. 따라서 하역시장 안정화 방안으로 항만시설 수요 및 공급의 불균형을 조정하기 위하여 항만풀링공동기금관리를 통한 재정수지를 확보할 수 있는 항만풀링제도를 제안하며, 이 제도의 운영을 위하여 한시적으로 컨테이너터미널 운영사별 처리물량 상한제를 도입하는 것이 바람직하다고 판단된다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.32 no.1
• /
• pp.97-122
• /
• 2016

Incheon port attained two million TEU of container throughput between 2013 and 2014 as a third port in domestic container throughput. It opened a new port in Song-do, Incheon in June 2015 to prepare for the continuing increase in container throughput.Therefore, it has provided the platform for being the major container port domestically and internationally. As the role of the new port increases, the role and direction of the Incheon port liner service network attracts attention. This study analyzes the centrality of the Incheon port liner service network by using SNA (Social Network Analysis), which was introduced in the maritime economics area recently, focusing on the Incheon port liner service network. We recognize the degree centrality, closeness centrality, and betweenness centrality of each port and its effect on the Incheon port liner service network. The study showed that for Incheon port, the centrality of the Busan port in Korea, and the Hong Kong port, is high outside the country. This helps us determine that the hub of the Incheon port is neither Shanghai nor Singapore, which ranks first and second, respectively, on container throughput. It is also helps us to know that eastern China's ports have not played a role of the hub of the Incheon port until now because of the relatively low centrality of eastern China's ports.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.36 no.2
• /
• pp.53-62
• /
• 2020

The maritime and port logistics industry is closely related to global trade and economic activity, especially for Korea, which is highly dependent on trade. As the largest port in Korea, Busan Port processes 75% of the country's container cargo; the port is therefore extremely important in terms of the country's national competitiveness. Port container cargo volume forecasts influence port development and operation strategies, and therefore require a high level of accuracy. However, due to unexpected and sudden changes in the port and maritime transportation industry, it is difficult to increase the accuracy of container volume forecasting using existing time series models. Among deep learning models, this study uses the LSTM model to enhance the accuracy of container cargo volume forecasting for Busan Port. To evaluate the model's performance, the forecasting accuracies of the SARIMA and LSTM models are compared. The findings reveal that the forecasting accuracy of the LSTM model is higher than that of the SARIMA model, confirming that the forecasted figures fully reflect the actual measurement figures.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2010.10a
• /
• pp.108-109
• /
• 2010

본 연구에서는 비선형예측기법으로서 그 우수성을 인정받고 있는 인공신경망모형을 사용하여 컨테이너 물동량 예측을 수행하였다. 그러나 인공신경망모형을 사용해 시계열의 예측결과를 ARIMA모형과 같이 널리 알려진 다른 전통적인 수요예측기법들과 비교 평가한 과거 연구들을 보게 되면 각기 주장하는 바와 그 결론이 상반됨을 알 수 있다. 그래서 인공신경망의 예측성과를 높이기 위한 기존의 선행연구들의 다양한 시도들을 바탕으로 국내 항만의 컨테이너물동량을 예측하고, 그를 통해 여러 모형간의 비교 검증작업을 수행하였다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.38 no.4
• /
• pp.171-185
• /
• 2022

This study conducted a comparative analysis by period and route through a variation allocation analysis with domestic container ports to analyze the change structure of container volume at Gwangyang Port. As a result of analysis of the absolute volume of container traffic at Gwangyang Port, the period and routes that showed the highest growth values by period and route were Europe, North America, Middle East, and South America in 2001-2007. It was followed by Southeast Asia, Oceania, Far East Asia, Europe, and Japan during the 2008-2012 period. Among the sections from 2018 to 2022, there are Oceania and Southwest Asia. In order to secure container shipments at Gwangyang Port in the future, it is essential to secure routes in Europe, the Americas, and Africa, and it is necessary to secure port competitiveness through improved management and service of container terminal operators

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.32 no.4
• /
• pp.165-182
• /
• 2016

This study examines the competitiveness and cooperativeness among the container ports in East Asia by analyzing their monthly dynamics in eight years (2008-2015). Time series data on container throughput divided into origin and destination (O/D), such as the top six Chinese ports and the transshipment (T/S) ports such as Hong Kong, Busan, and Singapore, are computed with two methods based on the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The first Granger causality test results show that Busan T/S has significant bilateral relations with three Chinese O/D ports; and significant unidirectional relations with three other O/D ports. Shenzhen port has significant bilateral relations with Singapore, and has a significant unidirectional relation with Hong Kong port. Co-integrating test results showed that Busan holds negative co-integration with all Chinese O/D ports. Impulse response function (IRF) results show an opposite direction between paired ports. The ratios of the impulse from T/S ports are significantly high to one another in the short-run, but its power declines as time passes. The ratio of the impulse from the Chinese ports to T/S ports is less significant in the short-run period, however, it becomes more significant as time passes. The significance of most shocks was high in the second period, but was diluted after the sixth period.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
• /
• 2009.06a
• /
• pp.133-134
• /
• 2009

선박의 대형화와 함께 해운 항만 시장이 급속히 변화하는 가운데 각 항만들은 항만 경쟁력을 가지기 위해 물동량 예측과 더불어 하역료를 바탕으로 한 부두사용료 수준에 대해 검토를 시행하고 있는 실정이다. 또한 부산북항 재개발과 관련하여 일반부두 폐쇄 및 터미널의 이전이 계획되어지는 가운데, 터미널 임대료 및 물동량 배분에 관한 연구가 활발하게 이루어지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 컨테이너 터미널의 주변여건 변화에 따른 컨테이너화물 물동량을 추정 및 예측하고, 기존 사용료 및 부산북항의 특정 터미널을 대상으로 향후 2020년까지의 사용료를 검토하고자 한다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
• /
• v.26 no.2
• /
• pp.139-149
• /
• 2010

This paper analyses the relative efficiency of 13 container terminals based on the data for the period 2003-8 to offer a fresh perspective. There has been abundant empirical research undertaken on the technical efficiency of Busan and Gwangyang port. Most studies have focused on the use of parametric and non-parametric techniques to analyse overall technical efficiency. Here, the framework assumes that terminals use two input to produce one output; the former includes container yard and container crane and the latter container volume. Jarque-Bera indicates that three variables are not normally distributed and the positive skewness shows that all the variables have long right tails. This means there are many small-scaled container terminals. This paper also employs heteroscedastic Tobit model to show the effect of the explanatory variables on the container terminal efficiencies. The Tobit model shows that both container yard and container cranes have positive effect on the container terminal efficiency, but container yard has a higher impact on the efficiency than the container crane.