• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2005.05b
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• pp.850-854
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• 2005

본 연구에서는 홍수가 발생할 경우 그 피해에 대한 잠재위험도를 산정하는 방법론을 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위하여 대상유역의 연간 홍수피해 잠재위험도의 기대치를 나타내는 홍수피해 잠재위험 기대치(Expected Potential Risks of Flood Damage, EPR)라는 새로운 개념을 정의하고 이 개념을 이용해 잠재위험도를 산정하도록 한다. 우선 EPR을 선장하기 위한 요소로 대상유역의 노출성(E)과 취약성(V)을 정의하고, 빈도-유량 곡선, 수위-유량 곡선, 수위-노출성$\cdot$취약성 곡선, 빈도-노출성$\cdot$취약성 곡선을 정의하도록 한다. 빈도-유량 곡선은 대상유역의 하천정비기본계획 자료와 실측자료를 이용해 산정하고,, 수위-유량 곡선은 HEC-G대RAS 모형을 이용하여 산정하였다. 대상유역은 경기도 용인시에 위치한 금학천 유역으로, 산정결과는 최대 노출성 및 취약성 지수를 각각 100으로 볼 때, 노출성 지수는 28, 취약성 지수는 32.25이고, 50년 빈도 홍수피해 잠재위험도는 30.13로 산정되었다.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.51-58
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• 2008

Analytical probabilistic vulnerability analysis requires extensive computing effort as a result of the randomness in both input motion and response characteristics. In this study, a new methodology whereby a set of vulnerability curves are derived based on the fundamental response quantities of stiffness, strength and ductility is presented. A response database of coefficients describing lognormal vulnerability relationships is constructed by employing aclosed-form solution for a generalized single-degree-of-freedom system. Once the three fundamental quantities of a wide range of structural systems are defined, the vulnerability curves for various limit states can be derived without recourse to further simulation. Examples of application are given and demonstrate the extreme efficiency of the proposed approach in deriving vulnerability relationships.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.1-13
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• 2022

A weighted linear combination of seismic fragility models previously developed for cut-and-cover railway tunnels was presented and the appropriateness of the combined model was evaluated. The seismic fragility function is expressed in the form of a cumulative probability function of the lognormal distribution based on the peak ground acceleration. The model uncertainty can be reduced by combining models independently developed. Equal weight is applied to four models. The new seismic fragility function was developed for each damage level by determining the median and standard deviation, which are model metrics. Comparing fragility curves developed for other bored tunnels, cut-and-cover tunnels for high-speed railway system have a similar level of fragility. We postulated that this is due to the high seismic design standard for high-speed railway tunnel.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.38 no.11
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• pp.19-30
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• 2022

Developing a fragility curve for the levee requires calculating the probability of failure according to the water level for each failure mode. Since probabilistic analysis requires iterative analysis to account for variability in geotechnical parameters, the fragility curve development inevitably requires many iterative calculations. Therefore, approximate probabilistic analysis techniques are usually applied to reduce the amount of calculation in developing the levee fragility curve. However, their accuracy has not been determined clearly. This study calculated the failure probability of slope and piping failure mode for an actual levee through probabilistic methods, such as FOSM, PEM, and MCS. Then, the fragility curve of the levee according to the water level was developed. The results of the approximate methods: FOSM and PEM, were compared with those of MCS to evaluate the applicability to the fragility curve for slope and piping failure mode.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.1-12
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• 2011

Seismic fragility analysis has been developed to evaluate the seismic performance of existing nuclear power plants, but now its applicability has been extended to buildings and bridges. In general, the seismic fragility curves are evaluated from the nonlinear time-history analysis (THA) using many earthquake ground motions. Seismic fragility analysis using the nonlinear THA requires a time consuming process of structural modeling and analysis. To overcome this shortcoming of the nonlinear THA, simplified methods such as the displacement coefficient method (DCM) and the capacity spectrum method (CSM) are used for the seismic fragility analysis. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the seismic fragility curve calculated by the DCM and the CSM, the seismic fragility curves of a reinforced concrete shear wall structure calculated by the DCM and CSM are compared with those calculated by the nonlinear THA. In order to construct a numerical fragility curve, 190 artificially generated ground motions corresponding to the design spectrum and the methodology proposed by Shinozuka et al. are used.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.29-41
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• 2017

There are uncertainties about the seismic load caused by seismic waves, which cannot be predicted due to the characteristics of the earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these uncertainties by probabilistic analysis. In this paper, procedures to develop a fragility curve that is a representative method to evaluate the safety of a structure by stochastic analysis were proposed for cut slopes. Fragility curve that considers uncertainties of soil shear strength parameters was prepared by Monte Carlo Simulation using pseudo static analysis. The fragility curve considering the uncertainty of the input ground motion was developed by performing time-history seismic analysis using selected 30 real ground input motions and the Newmark type displacement evaluation analysis. Fragility curves are represented as the cumulative probability distribution function with lognormal distribution by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.626-633
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• 2019

Purpose: The primery objecting of this paper is to explore the seismics fragility of curved bridge based on the change of girder section. Method: The cross section of the bridge structure was constructed with I, T, and Box shapes and then, in order to perform the seismic fragility 24 seismic ground motions were used, including Gyeongju Pohang Earthquake. Result: Fist, T-Shape of the bridge strucrue was much fragility in terms of the stress on girder section, in comparison to the other shapes. The seismic fragilies of the structures with respect to displacement(drift ratio), however, were shown simialr. Conclusion: In other to wvaluation the seismic fragility of curved structure using different girder shapes, analytical models of the structure were constructed and then, the probability failure of box-shape girder was shown lower probability. In further, Parametric studies of curved structures must be conducted.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.806-812
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• 2020

Purpose: This is aimed to evaluate the seismic fragility of curved bridge structure with I-shape girder subjected to 12 high frequency ground motions based on Gyeongju earthquake. Method: The linear elastic finite element model of curved bridge with I-Shape cross section was constructed and them linear elastic time history analyses were performed using the 12 artificial ground motions. Result: It was found that displacement response(LS1, LS2) was failed after PGA 0.1g and the stress response also showed failure after PGA 0.2g. Conclusion: The curved bridge with I-shape girder was sensitive to high frequency earthquakes.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.747-754
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• 2021

Purpose: Seismic safety evaluation of a curved bridge must be performed since the curved bridges exhibit the complex behavior rather than the straight bridges, due to geometrical characteristics. In order to conduct the probabilistic seismic assessment of the curved bridge, Seismic fragility evaluation was performed using the uncertainty of the steel material properties of a curved bridge girde, in this study. Method: The finite element (FE) model using ABAQUS platform of the curved bridge girder was constructed, and the statistical parameters of steel materials presented in previous studies were used. 100 steel material models were sampled using the Latin Hypercube Sampling method. As an input ground motion in this study, seismic fragility evaluation was performed by the normalized scale of the Gyeongju earthquake to 0.2g, 0.5g, 0.8g, 1.2g, and 1.5g. Result: As a result of the seismic fragility evaluation of the curved girder, it was found that there was no failure up to 0.03g corresponding to the limit state of allowable stress design, but the failure was started from 0.11g associated with using limit state design. Conclusion: In this study, seismic fragility evaluation was performed considering steel materials uncertainties. Further it must be considered the seismic fragility of the curved bridge using both the uncertainties of input motions and material properties.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.379-386
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• 2018

Purpose: This study was to the fragility evaluation of I-shape curved beam structure subjected to strong ground motions including Gyeongju and Pohang earthquakes Method: In particular, to conduct the analytical model, ABAQUS and ANSYS platform was used in this study. Furthermore, the analytical model using 3D Finite Element Model (FEM) was validated, in comparison to the theoretical solutions at the location of 025L, 05L, and 0.75L in static loading condition. In addition, in order to evaluate the seismic fragility of the curved beam structure, 20 seismic ground motions were selected and Monte-Carlo Simulation was used for the empirical fragility evaluation from 0.2g to 1.5g. Result: It was interesting to find that the probability of the system failure was found at 0.2g, as using 190 MPa limit state and the probability of the failure using 390 MPa limit state was starting from 0.6g. Conclusion: This study showed the comparison of the theoretical solution with analytical solution on I-shaped curved beam structures and it was interesting to note that the system subjected to strong ground motions was sensitive to high frequency earthquake. Further, the seismic fragility corresponding to the curved beam shapes must be evaluated.