• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2011.06a
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• pp.225-226
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• 2011

IALA Waterway Risk Assesment(IWRAP)에서 선박의 충돌확률은 기하학적인 선박의충돌확률(geomatric probability)에 인과관계 확률(causation probability) 곱한 값으로 해당수역의 양적인 충돌확률 평가에 이용되고 있다. 이를 통해 목포대교부근에 통항하는 선박의 선종별 충돌확률 및 입출항 선박 전체 충돌 확률 값을 분석하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.304-305
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• 2018

충돌확률은 선박 충돌, 좌초사고를 교통량 관측에 기초한 사고 발생건수와 수로의 지형적인 조건에 따른 기하확률로 정량화한 자료이다. 1970년대 Fujii와 Macduff의 연구를 시작으로 많은 연구기관에서 충돌확률을 제시하였지만, 우리나라 해역의 조건에 적합한 충돌, 좌초확률은 없는 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 부산항 제5항로에서 등부표 접촉사고 발생건수를 바탕으로 진입항로, 직선항로, 변침항로를 구분하여 좌초발생확률($P_a$) 및 준사고(좌초)발생확률($P_c$)을 도출하였다. 사고 발생율이 높은 진입항로에서 좌초발생확률($P_a$) $2.26{\times}10^{-5}$, 준사고(좌초) 발생확률($P_c$) $2.30{\times}10^{-3}$으로 산출되어 타 항로보다 등부표 접촉사고 확률이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 추후 각 해역별 충돌확률을 도출하여 선박 안전성 평가의 기준을 구하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.108-109
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• 2018

국내 5년간의 해양사고 현황을 살펴보면 충돌사고가 가장 많은 비율을 차지하고 있으며, 사고 건수 또한 증가하는 주세이다. 우리나라에서는 해상교통안전진단 규정에 따라 통항 안전성 확보가 가능하다고 평가하는 기준을 근접도에 따른 충돌 확률 $10^{-4}$으로 정하고 있으나, 이 기준에는 해상교통흐름 및 교통량을 반영하고 있지 않은 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 해상교통조사를 기반으로 부산항 접근해 역의 선박 충돌 확률 산출을 목적으로 한다. 충돌 확률은 부산신항 $1.058{\times}10^{-4}$, 부산항 $0.830{\times}10^{-4}$으로 해상교통안전진단 기준인 $10^{-4}$과 근사한 값으로 산출되었으며, 최근 10년간 부산항 접근 해역의 해양사고 발생 위치와 비교해본 결과 충돌 확률이 높은 곳에서 실제 사고가 발생한 것을 확인하였다. 추후에 다양한 항만의 충돌확률 산출을 통하여 국내 해상교통량 기반의 충돌확률을 확립하는데 기초자료로 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.41 no.2
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• pp.156-163
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• 2013

Collision probability is the most common method to measure the risk of space debris, it is widely used that two dimensional linear collision probability using the closest approach distance. This paper represents the characteristics of object that approach KOMPSAT 2, 3, 5 that have operated or will be operated by Korea. And more precise method than two dimensional linear collision probability, we analyzed the properties of three dimensional nonlinear collision probability using STK/Nonlinear Collision Probability Tool. Through this, efficiency of three dimensional nonlinear collision probability for KOMPSAT series satellites was investigated. The result represents that three dimensional nonlinear collision probability showed the precise outcome at a relative velocity of less than 350m/s. Also, KOMPSAT series satellites appeared to few low relative velocity approaches and showed low efficiency for the three dimensional nonlinear collision probability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.169-177
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• 2019

It is very important to understand the intention of a target ship to prevent collisions in multiple-ship situations. However, considering the intentions of a large number of ships at the same time is a great burden for the officer who must establish a collision avoidance plan. With a distributed algorithm, a ship can exchange information with a large number of target ships and search for a safe course. In this paper, I have applied a Distributed Stochastic Search Algorithm (DSSA), a distributed algorithm, for ship collision avoidance. A ship chooses the course that offers the greatest cost reduction or keeps its current course according to probability and constraints. DSSA is divided into five types according to the probability and constraints mentioned. In this paper, the five types of DSSA are applied for ship collision avoidance, and the effects on ship collision avoidance are analyzed. In addition, I have investigated which DSSA type is most suitable for collision avoidance. The experimental results show that the DSSA-A and B schemes offered effective ship collision avoidance. This algorithm is expected to be applicable for ship collision avoidance in a distributed system.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.373-378
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• 2012

In terms of the maritime accident prevention, risk analysis at targeted warterways is important for planning safety waterways. This paper analyzes the maritime accidents probability in the Mokpo waterways, South Korea, based on the IWRAP(IALA Waterway Risk Assessment) of the quantitative accident probability tool. Vessel collision probability cate is calculated by vessels meeting direction, using IWRAP. This paper contribute to advance improvement of vessel traffic service by VTS sector providing vessel fairway risk data.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.475-480
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• 2011

In this paper, we propose a collision risk assesment system. First, using Kalman Filter, we estimate the information of pedestrian, and second, we compute the collision probability using Monte Carlo Simulations(MCS) and neural network(NN). And we update the collision risk using time history which is called belief. Belief update consider not only output of Kalman Filter of only current time step but also output of Kalman Filter up to the first time step to current time step. The computer simulations will be shown the validity of our proposed method.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2012.06a
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• pp.516-518
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• 2012

해상에서 선박의 충돌확률을 평가하는 것은 해당해역의 잠재적인 해상교통 위험성을 평가하는데 있어 중요하다. 서남해권 해상교통에 중요한 요충지인 완도해역은 동서방향으로는 횡간수도 통과선박들이 항해를 하며, 남북방향으로는 완도항 입출항 선박과 다도해 섬들을 입출항하는 여객선들이 통항을 이루고 있다. IALA 정량적인 해상안전 평가방법인 IWRAP은 통항량, 선속, 길이, 선박의 통항분포로부터 해상에서 통항의 위험도를 평가하므로 인적, 지리적, 환경적 등 주관적인 요소들이 많은 정성적인 평가방법에 비해 적용이 간단하다. 본 연구에서는 VTS 섹터 관제의 관점에서 항로구간별 해상교통의 특징과 개선책을 세우기 위해 IWRAP을 활용하여 완도 해역의 충돌확률을 산출하고자 한다.

• Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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• v.24 no.6
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• pp.471-478
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• 2020

In this paper, we develop the ground risk model of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operation to quantify the ground risk when the UAV falls to the ground during the intended operation in case of UAV failure. The ground risk is computed by using the UAV failure probability, the probability of impact a person when UAV falls to the ground, the probability of fatality when UAV strikes the person. We mathematically derive each probability to evaluate the ground risk of UAV operation. Also, the population density map, building to land ratio map, car traffic database is used to estimate the number of people exposed to collision with UAV. Finally, we assumed the operations of a UAV with two paths in Daejeon city and evaluate the ground risk of each UAV operations.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.23 no.7
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• pp.783-790
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• 2017

An acceptable proximity assessment collision probability is widely considered to be less than $10^{-4}$ in maritime traffic safety audit schemes. In the 1970s, Fujii, Macduff and colleagues introduced various models for collision probability of aberrancy in the community. Although existing studies ensured acceptable proximity collision probability, around $10^{-4}$, they were constrained by assumptions. A lack of support for the proximity probability criterion has been investigated in this study for practical use. The appropriate proximity probability for different size vessels in both straight and curved lanes has been analyzed based on GICOMS data. As a result, reasonable proximity collision probabilities were determined for various vessel traffic conditions. Accordingly, necessary improvements in the maritime traffic system have been suggested in consideration for various maritime traffic situations and conditions.