• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추정오차 분석

Search Result 1,353, Processing Time 0.142 seconds

Seasonal Variations of Evapotranspiration Observed in a Mixed forest in the Seolmacheon Catchment (설마천 유역의 혼효림에서 관측된 증발산의 계절변화)

  • Kwon, Hyo-Jung;Lee, Jung-Hoon;Lee, Yeon-Kil;Lee, Jin-Won;Jung, Sung-Won;Kim, Joon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.11 no.1
    • /
    • pp.39-47
    • /
    • 2009
  • The importance of securing water resources and their efficient management has attracted more attention recently due to water deficit. In water budget analysis, however, evapotranspiration(${\lambda}E$) has been approximated as the residual in the water balance equation or estimated from empirical equations and assumptions. To minimize the uncertainties in these estimates, it is necessary to directly measure ${\lambda}E$. In this study, using the eddy covariance technique, we have measured ${\lambda}E$ in a mixed forest in the Seolmacheon catchment in Korea from September 2007 to December 2008. During the growing season(May-July), ${\lambda}E$ in this mixed forest averaged about $2.2\;mm\;d^{-1}$, whereas it was on average $0.5\;mm\;d^{-1}$ during the non-growing season in winter. The annual total ${\lambda}E$ in 2008 was $581\;mm\;y^{-1}$, which is about 1/3 of the annual precipitation of 1997 mm. Despite the differences in the amount and frequency of precipitation, the accumulated ${\lambda}E$ during the overlapping period(i.e., September to December) for 2007 and 2008 was both ${\sim}110$ mm, showing virtually no difference. The omega factor, which is a measure of decoupling between forest and the atmosphere, was on average 0.5, indicating that the contributions of equilibrium ${\lambda}E$ and imposed ${\lambda}E$ to the total ${\lambda}E$ were about the same. The results suggest that ${\lambda}E$ in this mixed forest was controlled by various factors such as net radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and canopy conductance. In this study, based on the direct measurements of ${\lambda}E$, we have quantified the relative contribution of ${\lambda}E$ in the water balance of a mixed forest in the Seolmacheon catchment. In combination with runoff data, the information on ${\lambda}E$ would greatly enhance the reliability of water budget analysis in this catchment.

Use of Real-Time PCR and Internal Standard Addition Method for Identifying Mixed Ratio of Chicken Meat in Sausages (Real-Time PCR과 Internal Standard Addition법을 이용한 돼지고기 소시지에 혼합된 닭고기의 정량)

  • Lee, Namrye;Joo, Jae-Young;Yeo, Yong-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
    • /
    • v.46 no.9
    • /
    • pp.1097-1105
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study examined how much chicken meat was in sausage made with pork. Both real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and internal standard addition were used. Fifty ng of chicken DNA was added to the sausages as an internal standard. The addition of standard DNA increased the amplification efficiency of PCR and confirmed the possibility of quantitative analysis. A QIAamp DNA Micro Kit was used to improve the DNA recovery and amplification efficiency. The density of template DNA and primer were suitable for $3.0{\sim}5.0{\mu}L$ and $0.5{\mu}L$, respectively. Each DNA of pig and chicken was diluted in 10-fold from steps 50 ng to 0.05 ng. The detection limit of both pig and chicken meat was more than 0.05 ng and the correlation coefficient of the standard curve was at least 0.98. The result of the quantitative analysis after heat treatment of 3 samples of pigs and chickens mixed at 70:30 showed a 5.7% difference (64.3:35.7) between the expected value and measured value. The quantitative value was changed by affecting the DNA according to the heat treatment ($70^{\circ}C$, 10 min). An analysis of the pork and chicken content in sausages showed that it was difficult to detect chicken meat and the quantitative value of DNA according to the Ct value was very low. On the other hand, when adding standard material (50 ng of chicken DNA) to the sausages, the Ct value decreased gradually with increasing chicken mixing ratio. Thus, the mixing ratio of chicken in sausages could be estimated.

The Cross-Sectional Characteristic and Spring-Neap Variation of Residual Current and Net Volume Transport at the Yeomha Channel (경기만 염하수로에서의 잔차류 및 수송량의 대조-소조 변동과 단면 특성)

  • Lee, Dong Hwan;Yoon, Byung Il;Woo, Seung-Buhm
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.29 no.5
    • /
    • pp.217-227
    • /
    • 2017
  • The object of this study is to estimate the net volume transport and the residual flow that changed by space and time at southern part of Yeomha channel, Gyeonggi Bay. The cross-section observation was conducted at the mid-part (Line2) and the southern end (Line1) of Yeomha channel for 13 hours during neap and spring-tides, respectively. The Lagrange flux is calculated as the sum of Eulerian flux and Stokes drift, and the residual flow is calculated by using least square method. It is necessary to unify the spatial area of the observed cross-section and average time during the tidal cycle. In order to unify the cross-sectional area containing such a large vertical tidal variation, it was necessary to convert into sigma coordinate system by horizontally and vertically for every hour. The converted sigma coordinate system is estimated to be 3~5% error when compared with the z-level coordinate system which shows that there is no problem for analyzing the data. As a result, the cross-sectional residual flow shows a southward flow pattern in both spring and neap tides at Line2, and also have characteristic of the spatial residual flow fluctuation: it northwards in the main line direction and southwards at the end of both side of the waterway. It was confirmed that the residual flow characteristics at Line2 were changed by the net pressure due to the sea level difference. The analysis of the net volume transport showed that it tends to southwards at $576m^3s^{-1}$, $67m^3s^{-1}$ in each spring tide and neap tide at Line2. On the other hand, in the control Line1, it has tendency to northwards at $359m^3s^{-1}$ and $248m^3s^{-1}$. Based on the difference between the two observation lines, it is estimated that net volume transport will be out flow about $935m^3s^{-1}$ at spring tide stage and about $315m^3s^{-1}$ at neap tide stage as the intertidal zone between Yeongjong Island and Ganghwa Island. In other words, the difference of pressure gradient and Stokes drift during spring and neap tide is main causes of variation for residual current and net volume transport.

The Study about Developing More Rational Valuation Model to the Early Stage Companies (초기기업에 대한 정량적 가치평가 모델 구축에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kang, Sang-Wook;Yang, Young-Seok;Yang, Soo-Hee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.12 no.4
    • /
    • pp.15-24
    • /
    • 2017
  • The major goal of this paper falls on developing new rational valuation model, to help companies and investors in the early stage of growth as to preparing and negotiating valuation of investment, by applying new reasonable discount indexes of calculating Discount Cash Flow in valuation of the start-up which has been recognized the critical fatal flaws of DCF with them. There are three specific studies done in this paper. First, this paper found the solid and viable bases of rational discount indexes as to applying DCF in valuing companies in the early growth stage with reviewing the previous studies including Berkus method, Scorecard Method, and Risk factor Summation method classified the most effective tools of valuing pre-revenue generating companies. Second, this paper quoted and analyzed the previous models and studies, so called, 'DCF-Prime' of applying DCF method as to value companies in the early growth stage by taking all risk factors innate to the companies in the early growth stage as the discount rate Beta coefficient. Third, this paper propose more viable and solid valuation models, so called, 'DCF-Plus'of combing all validated valuation factors in Berkus, Scorecard, and Risk Factor Summation methods into applying separate discount bracket after DCF Valuation over the companies in the early growth stage instead of taking them as the factors of discount rate, beta coefficient, like the previous model of DCF-Prime. DCF-Plus mainly developed in this paper will not only provide more rational valuation bases as to investment negotiation between companies and investors in the early growth stage, but also providing more accountable guidelines to companies in the early growth as to prepare investment raising and accelerating their company's value by themselves.

  • PDF

Monitoring of a Time-series of Land Subsidence in Mexico City Using Space-based Synthetic Aperture Radar Observations (인공위성 영상레이더를 이용한 멕시코시티 시계열 지반침하 관측)

  • Ju, Jeongheon;Hong, Sang-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
    • /
    • v.37 no.6_1
    • /
    • pp.1657-1667
    • /
    • 2021
  • Anthropogenic activities and natural processes have been causes of land subsidence which is sudden sinking or gradual settlement of the earth's solid surface. Mexico City, the capital of Mexico, is one of the most severe land subsidence areas which are resulted from excessive groundwater extraction. Because groundwater is the primary water resource occupies almost 70% of total water usage in the city. Traditional terrestrial observations like the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) or leveling survey have been preferred to measure land subsidence accurately. Although the GNSS observations have highly accurate information of the surfaces' displacement with a very high temporal resolution, it has often been limited due to its sparse spatial resolution and highly time-consuming and high cost. However, space-based synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry has been widely used as a powerful tool to monitor surfaces' displacement with high spatial resolution and high accuracy from mm to cm-scale, regardless of day-or-night and weather conditions. In this paper, advanced interferometric approaches have been applied to get a time-series of land subsidence of Mexico City using four-year-long twenty ALOS PALSAR L-band observations acquired from Feb-11, 2007 to Feb-22, 2011. We utilized persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) and small baseline subset (SBAS) techniques to suppress atmospheric artifacts and topography errors. The results show that the maximum subsidence rates of the PSI and SBAS method were -29.5 cm/year and -27.0 cm/year, respectively. In addition, we discuss the different subsidence rates where the study area is discriminated into three districts according to distinctive geotechnical characteristics. The significant subsidence rate occurred in the lacustrine sediments with higher compressibility than harder bedrock.

Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

  • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
    • /
    • v.56 no.4
    • /
    • pp.435-445
    • /
    • 2023
  • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.

Biomass, Net Production and Nutrient Distribution of Bamboo Phyllostachys Stands in Korea (왕대속(屬) 대나무림(林)의 물질생산(物質生産) 및 무기영양물(無機營養物) 분배(分配)에 관한 연구(硏究))

  • Park, In Hyeop;Ryu, Suk Bong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.85 no.3
    • /
    • pp.453-461
    • /
    • 1996
  • Three Phyllostachys stands of P. pubescens, P. bambusoides and P. nigra var, henonis in Sunchon were studied to investigate biomass, net production and nutrient distribution. Five $10m{\times}10m$ quadrats were set up and 20 sample culms of 2 years and over were harvested for dimension analysis in each stand. One year old culms and subterranean parts were estimated by the harvested quadrat method. The largest mean DBH, height and basal area were shown in P. pubescens stand, and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand and P. bambusoides stand. There was little difference in accuracy among three allometric biomass regression models of logWt=A+B1ogD, $logWt=A+BlogD^2H$ and logWt=A+BlogD+ClogH, where Wt, D and H were dry weight, DBH and height, respectively. Analysis of covariance showed that there were significant differences in intercept among the linear allometric biomass regressons of three Phyllostachys species. Biomass included subterranean parts was the largest in P. pubescens stand(103.621t/ha), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(86.447t/ha) and P. bambusoides stand(36.767t/ha). Leaf biomass was 6.3% to 7.8% of total biomass in each stands. The ratio of aboveground biomass and subterranean biomass in each stand was 1.87 to 2.26. Net production included subterranean parts was the greatest in P. pubescens stand(6.115t/ha/yr), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(5.609t/ha/yr) and P, bambusoides stand(3.252t/ha/yr). The highest net assimilation ratio was estimated in P. pubescens stand(2.979), and followed by P. nigra var. henonis stand(2.752) and P. bambusoides stand(2.187). Biomass accumulation ratio of each stand was 2.679 to 5.358. Concentrations of N, P and Mg were the highest in leaves, and followed by subterranean parts, and culms+branches in all three species. Concentration of Ca was the highest in leaves, and followed by culms+branches, and subterranean parts in all three species. The difference in biomass among three species stands was caused by their culm size, leaf biomass, net assimilation ratio, and efficiency of leaves to produce culms.

  • PDF

Evaluation of Airborne Pb Sources in an Industrialized City by Applying Pb Isotope Ratios and Concentrations in PM10 (PM10 내 납의 동위원소와 농도를 활용한 산업도시지역 대기 중 납 오염원 평가)

  • Jo, Wan-Kuen;Lee, Heon-Chul;Kim, Mo-Keun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
    • /
    • v.33 no.3
    • /
    • pp.174-182
    • /
    • 2011
  • The present study evaluated the major lead sources in a steel metallurgy industrialized city by measuring lead isotopes/lead concentrations of ambient air and potential sources in an industrial area and residential areas according to relative distance. The quality control program obtained during the measurement procedure for lead isotopes and concentrations exhibited $0.5ng/m^3$ for method detection limit, more than 90% for recoveries of standard particulate matters, and lower than 0.2% for reproducibility errors of four lead isotopes ($^{204}Pb$, $^{206}Pb$, $^{207}Pb$, $^{208}Pb$). For all three lead isotope ratios ($^{206}Pb/^{204}Pb$, $^{207}Pb/^{206}Pb$, $^{208}Pb/^{206}Pb$), the ratios were obtained in the industrial area were closer to nearby residential area than those of a residential area far away from the industrial area, thereby suggesting that lead sources were more similar each other in the industrial and nearby residential area. Furthermore, for both summer and winter seasons ambient lead concentrations were more than four times higher in the industrial area than in the residential areas and in turn, they were higher in the nearby residential area compared with the far-away residential area. As a result, it was suggested that lead emitted from the industrial area would influence more the ambient lead in the nearby residential area than the far-away residential area. Both slag and traffic emissions are likely to be major lead sources in the industrial and nearby residential areas, since their three lead isotope ratios ($^{206}Pb/^{204}Pb$, $^{207}Pb/^{206}Pb$, $^{208}Pb/^{206}Pb$) were similar to the ratios obtained from ambient air of these two areas. In addition, the lead isotope ratios revealed different pattern between seasons, and the ambient lead concentrations were higher for winter than for summer.

The Comparison of Existing Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Method in Korea (국내 기존 합성단위도 방법의 비교)

  • Jeong, Seong-Won;Mun, Jang-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.34 no.6
    • /
    • pp.659-672
    • /
    • 2001
  • Generally, design flood for a hydraulic structure is estimated using statistical analysis of runoff data. However, due to the lack of runoff data, it is difficult that the statistical method is applied for estimation of design flood. In this case, the synthetic unit hydrograph method is used generally and the models such as NYMO method, Snyder method, SCS method, and HYMO method have been widely used in Korea. In this study, these methods and KICT method, which is developed in year 2000, are compared and analyzed in 10 study areas. Firstly, peak flow and peak time of representative unit hydrograph and synthetic unit hydrograph in study area are compared, and secondly, the shape of unit hydrograph is compared using a root mean square error(RMSE). In Nakayasu method developed in Japan, synthetic unit hydrograph is very different from peak flow, peak time, and the shape of representative unit hydrograph, and KICT method(2000) is superior to others. Also, KICT method(2000) is superior to others in the aspects of using hydrologic and topographical data. Therefore, Nakayasu method is not a proper in hydrological practice. Moreover, it is considered that KICT model is a better method for the estimation of design flood. However, if other model, i.e. SCS method, Nakayasu method, and HYMO method, is used, parameters or regression equations must be adjusted by analysis of real data in Korea.

  • PDF

A Study on the Volatility of Global Stock Markets using Markov Regime Switching model (마코브국면전환모형을 이용한 글로벌 주식시장의 변동성에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Kyung-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Soo
    • Management & Information Systems Review
    • /
    • v.34 no.3
    • /
    • pp.17-39
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study examined the structural changes and volatility in the global stock markets using a Markov Regime Switching ARCH model developed by the Hamilton and Susmel (1994). Firstly, the US, Italy and Ireland showed that variance in the high volatility regime was more than five times that in the low volatility, while Korea, Russia, India, and Greece exhibited that variance in the high volatility regime was increased more than eight times that in the low. On average, a jump from regime 1 to regime 2 implied roughly three times increased in risk, while the risk during regime 3 was up to almost thirteen times than during regime 1 over the study period. And Korea, the US, India, Italy showed ARCH(1) and ARCH(2) effects, leverage and asymmetric effects. Secondly, 278 days were estimated in the persistence of low volatility regime, indicating that the mean transition probability between volatilities exhibited the highest long-term persistence in Korea. Thirdly, the coefficients appeared to be unstable structural changes and volatility for the stock markets in Chow tests during the Asian, Global and European financial crisis. In addition, 1-Step prediction error tests showed that stock markets were unstable during the Asian crisis of 1997-1998 except for Russia, and the Global crisis of 2007-2008 except for Korea and the European crisis of 2010-2011 except for Korea, the US, Russia and India. N-Step tests exhibited that most of stock markets were unstable during the Asian and Global crisis. There was little change in the Asian crisis in CUSUM tests, while stock markets were stable until the late 2000s except for some countries. Also there were stable and unstable stock markets mixed across countries in CUSUMSQ test during the crises. Fourthly, I confirmed a close relevance of the volatility between Korea and other countries in the stock markets through the likelihood ratio tests. Accordingly, I have identified the episode or events that generated the high volatility in the stock markets for the financial crisis, and for all seven stock markets the significant switch between the volatility regimes implied a considerable change in the market risk. It appeared that the high stock market volatility was related with business recession at the beginning in 1990s. By closely examining the history of political and economical events in the global countries, I found that the results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes (1990) were consistent with those of this paper, indicating there were the structural changes and volatility during the crises and specificly every high volatility regime in SWARCH-L(3,2) student t-model was accompanied by some important policy changes or financial crises in countries or other critical events in the international economy. The sophisticated nonlinear models are needed to further analysis.

  • PDF