• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추정량거리

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On-Line Determination Steady State in Simulation Output (시뮬레이션 출력의 안정상태 온라인 결정에 관한 연구)

  • 이영해;정창식;경규형
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1996.05a
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    • pp.1-3
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    • 1996
  • 시뮬레이션 기법을 이용한 시스템의 분석에 있어서 실험의 자동화는 현재 많은 연구와 개발이 진행 중인 분야이다. 컴퓨터와 정보통신 시스템에 대한 시뮬레이션의 예를 들어 보면, 수많은 모델을 대한 시뮬레이션을 수행할 경우 자동화된 실험의 제어가 요구되고 있다. 시뮬레이션 수행회수, 수행길이, 데이터 수집방법 등과 관련하여 시뮬레이션 실험방법이 자동화가 되지 않으면, 시뮬레이션 실험에 필요한 시간과 인적 자원이 상당히 커지게 되며 출력데이터에 대한 분석에 있어서도 어려움이 따르게 된다. 시뮬레이션 실험방법을 자동화하면서 효율적인 시뮬레이션 출력분석을 위해서는 시뮬레이션을 수행하는 경우에 항상 발생하는 초기편의 (initial bias)를 제거하는 문제가 선결되어야 한다. 시뮬레이션 출력분석에 사용되는 데이터들이 초기편의를 반영하지 않는 안정상태에서 수집된 것이어야만 실제 시스템에 대한 올바른 해석이 가능하다. 실제로 시뮬레이션 출력분석과 관련하여 가장 중요하면서도 어려운 문제는 시뮬레이션의 출력데이터가 이루는 추계적 과정 (stochastic process)의 안정상태 평균과 이 평균에 대한 신뢰구간(confidence interval: c. i.)을 구하는 것이다. 한 신뢰구간에 포함되어 있는 정보는 의사결정자에게 얼마나 정확하게 평균을 추정할 구 있는지 알려 준다. 그러나, 신뢰구간을 구성하는 일은 하나의 시뮬레이션으로부터 얻어진 출력데이터가 일반적으로 비정체상태(nonstationary)이고 자동상관(autocorrelated)되어 있기 때문에, 전통적인 통계적인 기법을 직접적으로 이용할 수 없다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 시뮬레이션 출력데이터 분석기법이 사용된다.본 논문에서는 초기편의를 제거하기 위해서 필요한 출력데이터의 제거시점을 찾는 새로운 기법으로, 유클리드 거리(Euclidean distance: ED)를 이용한 방법과 현재 패턴 분류(pattern classification) 문제에 널리 사용 중인 역전파 신경망(backpropagation neural networks: BNN) 알고리듬을 이용하는 방법을 제시한다. 이 기법들은 대다수의 기존의 기법과는 달리 시험수행(pilot run)이 필요 없으며, 시뮬레이션의 단일수행(single run) 중에 제거시점을 결정할 수 있다. 제거시점과 관련된 기존 연구는 다음과 같다. 콘웨이방법은 현재의 데이터가 이후 데이터의 최대값이나 최소값이 아니면 이 데이터를 제거시점으로 결정하는데, 알고기듬 구조상 온라인으로 제거시점 결정이 불가능하다. 콘웨이방법이 알고리듬의 성격상 온라인이 불가능한 반면, 수정콘웨이방법 (Modified Conway Rule: MCR)은 현재의 데이터가 이전 데이터와 비교했을 때 최대값이나 최소값이 아닌 경우 현재의 데이터를 제거시점으로 결정하기 때문에 온라인이 가능하다. 평균교차방법(Crossings-of-the-Mean Rule: CMR)은 누적평균을 이용하면서 이 평균을 중심으로 관측치가 위에서 아래로, 또는 아래서 위로 교차하는 회수로 결정한다. 이 기법을 사용하려면 교차회수를 결정해야 하는데, 일반적으로 결정된 교차회수가 시스템에 상관없이 일반적으로 적용가능하지 않다는 문제점이 있다. 누적평균방법(Cumulative-Mean Rule: CMR2)은 여러 번의 시험수행을 통해서 얻어진 출력데이터에 대한 총누적평균(grand cumulative mean)을 그래프로 그린 다음, 안정상태인 점을 육안으로 결정한다. 이 방법은 여러 번의 시뮬레이션을 수행에서 얻어진 데이터들의 평균들에 대한 누적평균을 사용하기 매문에 온라인 제거시점 결정이 불가능하며, 작업자가 그래프를 보고 임의로 결정해야 하는 단점이 있다. Welch방법(Welch's Method: WM)은 브라운 브리지(Brownian bridge) 통계량()을 사용하는데, n이 무한에 가까워질 때, 이 브라운 브리지 분포(Brownian bridge distribution)에 수렴하는 성질을 이용한다. 시뮬레이션 출력데이터를 가지고 배치를 구성한 후 하나의 배치를 표본으로 사용한다. 이 기법은 알고리듬이 복잡하고, 값을 추정해야 하는 단점이 있다. Law-Kelton방법(Law-Kelton's Method: LKM)은 회귀 (regression)이론에 기초하는데, 시뮬레이션이 종료된 후 누적평균데이터에 대해서 회귀직선을 적합(fitting)시킨다. 회귀직선의 기울기가 0이라는 귀무가설이 채택되면 그 시점을 제거시점으로 결정한다. 일단 시뮬레이션이 종료된 다음, 데이터가 모아진 순서의 반대 순서로 데이터를 이용하기 때문에 온라인이 불가능하다. Welch절차(Welch's Procedure: WP)는 5회이상의 시뮬레이션수행을 통해 수집한 데이터의 이동평균을 이용해서 시각적으로 제거시점을 결정해야 하며, 반복제거방법을 사용해야 하기 때문에 온라인 제거시점의 결정이 불가능하다. 또한, 한번에 이동할 데이터의 크기(window size)를 결정해야 한다. 지금까지 알아 본 것처럼, 기존의 방법들은 시뮬레이션의 단일 수행 중의 온라인 제거시점 결정의 관점에서는 미약한 면이 있다. 또한, 현재의 시뮬레이션 상용소프트웨어는 작업자로 하여금 제거시점을 임의로 결정하도록 하기 때문에, 실험중인 시스템에 대해서 정확하고도 정량적으로 제거시점을 결정할 수 없게 되어 있다. 사용자가 임의로 제거시점을 결정하게 되면, 초기편의 문제를 효과적으로 해결하기 어려울 뿐만 아니라, 필요 이상으로 너무 많은 양을 제거하거나 초기편의를 해결하지 못할 만큼 너무 적은 양을 제거할 가능성이 커지게 된다. 또한, 기존의 방법들의 대부분은 제거시점을 찾기 위해서 시험수행이 필요하다. 즉, 안정상태 시점만을 찾기 위한 시뮬레이션 수행이 필요하며, 이렇게 사용된 시뮬레이션은 출력분석에 사용되지 않기 때문에 시간적인 손실이 크게 된다.

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Performance Evaluation of Monitoring System for Sargassum horneri Using GOCI-II: Focusing on the Results of Removing False Detection in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea (GOCI-II 기반 괭생이모자반 모니터링 시스템 성능 평가: 황해 및 동중국해 해역 오탐지 제거 결과를 중심으로)

  • Han-bit Lee;Ju-Eun Kim;Moon-Seon Kim;Dong-Su Kim;Seung-Hwan Min;Tae-Ho Kim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.6_2
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    • pp.1615-1633
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    • 2023
  • Sargassum horneri is one of the floating algae in the sea, which breeds in large quantities in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea and then flows into the coast of Republic of Korea, causing various problems such as destroying the environment and damaging fish farms. In order to effectively prevent damage and preserve the coastal environment, the development of Sargassum horneri detection algorithms using satellite-based remote sensing technology has been actively developed. However, incorrect detection information causes an increase in the moving distance of ships collecting Sargassum horneri and confusion in the response of related local governments or institutions,so it is very important to minimize false detections when producing Sargassum horneri spatial information. This study applied technology to automatically remove false detection results using the GOCI-II-based Sargassum horneri detection algorithm of the National Ocean Satellite Center (NOSC) of the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanography Agency (KHOA). Based on the results of analyzing the causes of major false detection results, it includes a process of removing linear and sporadic false detections and green algae that occurs in large quantities along the coast of China in spring and summer by considering them as false detections. The technology to automatically remove false detection was applied to the dates when Sargassum horneri occurred from February 24 to June 25, 2022. Visual assessment results were generated using mid-resolution satellite images, qualitative and quantitative evaluations were performed. Linear false detection results were completely removed, and most of the sporadic and green algae false detection results that affected the distribution were removed. Even after the automatic false detection removal process, it was possible to confirm the distribution area of Sargassum horneri compared to the visual assessment results, and the accuracy and precision calculated using the binary classification model averaged 97.73% and 95.4%, respectively. Recall value was very low at 29.03%, which is presumed to be due to the effect of Sargassum horneri movement due to the observation time discrepancy between GOCI-II and mid-resolution satellite images, differences in spatial resolution, location deviation by orthocorrection, and cloud masking. The results of this study's removal of false detections of Sargassum horneri can determine the spatial distribution status in near real-time, but there are limitations in accurately estimating biomass. Therefore, continuous research on upgrading the Sargassum horneri monitoring system must be conducted to use it as data for establishing future Sargassum horneri response plans.

Investigation of Poultry Farm for Productivity and Health in Korea (한국에 있어서 양계장의 실태와 닭의 생산성에 관한 조사(위생과 질병중심으로))

  • 박근식;김순재;오세정
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.54-76
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    • 1980
  • A survey was conducted to determine the status of health and productivity of poultry farms in Korea. Area included Was Kyunggido where exist nearly 50% of national poultry population. From this area, 41 layer and 34 broiler farms covering 21 Countries were selected randomly for the survey. When farms were divided in the operation size, 95.1% of layer and 82.3% of broiler farms were classified as business or industrial level while the rest were managed in a small scale as part time job. Generally layer farms had been established much earlier than broiler farms. Geographically 10.7% of layer farms were sited near the housing area such as field foreast and rice field. No farms were located near the seashore. The distance from one farm from the other was very close, being 80% of the farms within the distance of 1km and as many as 28% of the farms within loom. This concentrated poultry farming in a certain area created serious problems for the sanitation and preventive measures, especially in case of outbreak of infectious diseases. Average farm size was 5,016${\times}$3.3㎡ for layers and 1,037${\times}$3.3㎡ for broilers. 89.5% of layer ana 70.6% of broiler farms owned the land for farming while the rest were on lease. In 60% of layer farms welters were employed for farming while in the rest their own labour was used. Majority of farms were equipped poorly for taking necessary practice of hygiene and sanitation. The amount of disinfectant used by farms was considerably low. As many as 97.6% of lave. farms were practised with Newcastle(ND) and fowl pox(F$.$pox) vaccine, whereas only 43.6% and 5.1% of broiler farms were practised with ND and F$.$pox vaccine, respectively. In 17-32.7% of farms ND vaccine was used less than twice until 60 days of age and in only 14.6% of farms adult birds were vaccinated every 4months. Monthly expense for preventive measures was over 200,000W in 32% of farms. Only 4.9-2.7% of vaccine users were soaking advice from veterinarians before practising vaccination, 85% of the users trusted the efficacy of the vaccines. Selection of medicine was generally determined by the farm owner rather than by veterinarans on whom 33.3% of farms were dependant. When diseases outbroke, 49.3% of farms called for veterinary hospital and the rest were handled by their own veterinarians, salesmen or professionals. Approximately 70% of farms were satisfied with the diagnosis made by the veterinarians. Frequency of disease outbreaks varied according to the age and type of birds. The livabilities of layers during the period of brooding, rearing ana adultwere 90.5, 98.9 and 75.2%, respectively while the livalibility of broilers until marketing was 92.2%. In layers, average culling age, was 533.3 day and hen housed eggs were 232.7. Average feed conversion rates of layers and broilers were 3.30 and 2.48, respectively. Those figures were considerably higher than anticipated but still far lower than those in developed countries.

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Effect of Sunlight, Incandescent, Fluorescent, and Ultraviolet Lights on the Oxidation of Edible Soybean Oil (식용유지(食用油脂)의 산화과정(酸化過程)에 대한 일사광선(日射光線), 백열등광선(白熱燈光線), 형광등광선(螢光燈光線) 및 살균등광선(殺菌燈光線)의 촉진작용(促進作俑) 대하여)

  • Koo, Ja-Hyun;Kim, Dong-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.178-184
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    • 1971
  • Samples of refined soybean oil were irradiated with lights from a 20-watt incandescent tungsten lamp, a 20-watt fluorescent daylight type lamp, a 20-watt low-pressure mercury vapor germicidal lamp, and direct sunlight for an experimental period of 147 days. Some samples were stored in a dark room throughout the period as a control. The peroxide values of all samples were measured every week. The induction period of the samples was arbitrarily taken as the time required for the samples to reach a peroxide value of 15. The induction period of the control was estimated at 198 days. Those of the samples irradiated with the incandescent light, the fluorescent light, the ultraviolet light, and the sunlight were estimated at 196, 119, 52 and 6 days, respectively. The sunlight showed by far the strongest prooxidant activity whereas the incandescent light showed the weakest but distinct prooxidant activity. The small temperature differences observed among the various samples throughout the experimental period did not seem to affect the oxidation rates of the irradiated samples in any significant way.

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Evaluation of Fabricated Semiconductor Sensor for Verification of γ-ray Distribution in Brachytherapy (근접치료용 방사성 동위원소의 선량분포 확인을 위한 디지털 반도체 센서의 제작 및 평가)

  • Park, Jeong-Eun;Kim, Kyo-Tae;Choi, Won-Hoon;Lee, Ho;Cho, Sam-Joo;Ahn, So-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Young;Song, Yong-Keun;Kim, Keum-bae;Huh, Hyun-Do;Park, Sung-Kwang
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.280-285
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    • 2015
  • In radiation therapy fields, a brachytherapy is a treatment that kills lesion of cells by inserting a radioisotope that keeps emitting radiation into the body. We currently verify the consistency of radiation treatment plan and dose distribution through film/screen system (F/S system), provide therapy after checking dose. When we check dose distribution, F/S systems have radiation signal distortion because there is low resolution by penumbra depending on the condition of film developed. In this study, We fabricated a $HgI_2$ Semiconductor radiation sensor for base study in order that we verify the real dose distribution weather it's same as plans or not in brachytherapy. Also, we attempt to evaluate the feasibility of QA system by utilizing and evaluating the sensor to brachytherapy source. As shown in the result of detected signal with various source-to-detector distance (SDD), we quantitatively verified the real range of treatment which is also equivalent to treatment plans because only the low signal estimated as scatters was measured beyond the range of treatment. And the result of experiment that we access reproducibility on the same condition of ${\gamma}$-ray, we have made sure that the CV (coefficient of variation) is within 1.5 percent so we consider that the $HgI_2$ sensor is available at QA of brachytherapy based on the result.

Causes of Childhood Injuries Observed at the Emergency Rooms of Five Hospitals in Taegu (대구시내 종합병원 응급실에 찾아온 소아사고 환아의 사고원인)

  • Park, Jung-Han;Bae, Yeong-Sook
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.21 no.2 s.24
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    • pp.224-237
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    • 1988
  • To determine the causes of and related factors to childhood injuries, the emergency room records and inpatient medical records were reviewed for 4,849 injured children out of 15,790 pediatric patients(<15 years old) who visited the emergency rooms of 3 university hospitals and 2 general hospitals in Taegu from 1 January to 31 December 1987. Out of total injured children, 54.675 were 3-8 years old and the male to female ratio of the total injured children was about 2:1. The leading causes of injury were falls and slips (29.1%) and traffic accident(28.2%). The frequency of injury was higher in May-October than the rest of months and 51.6% of the injuries occurred between 15 and 20 o'clock. Falls and slips took place most frequently at the stairway(25.7%). The most common interpersonal violence was inflicted injuries(85.6%) and there were 11 child rapes. Dog bites accounted for 67.6% of all biting injuries and it occured 2.9 times more in male than in female. CO intoxication was the most common cause of poisoning (45.3%) and scalding accounted for 85.2% of all burns. Common places of drownings were river (32.2%), swimming pool (22.6%) and construction site(19.3%). To prevent childhood injuries, it is recommended to eliminate the hazardous environmental factors, to provide safe playgrounds, to educate the children for safety from kindergarten and the general public through mass communication, to establish a strict safety standard for houses, public buildings and facilities, and playgrounds.

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