• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추정능력

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Hydraulic${\cdot}$Hydrologic Dam Risk Analysis through Improving Estimation Methods of Dam Water Surface Level (댐 수위 추정 방법의 개선을 통한 수리${\cdot}$수문학적 위험도 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyun Han;Moon, Young Il
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2004.05b
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    • pp.863-869
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    • 2004
  • 댐의 수리${\cdot}$수문학적 월류 확률 추정시에 가장 민감한 불확실성 변량은 댐의 초기수위라 할 수 있으며, 특히 자료의 특성을 충분히 반영하고 댐마루(dam crest)의 높이를 초과하지 않으면서 경계를 갖는 분포형을 추정하는 것은 무엇보다 중요하다. 그러나 기존의 매개변수적 확률분포 추정방법으로 이러한 문제점을 적절히 반영할 수 없으며 통계특성을 반영하지 못하고 이상화시키는 단점이 있다. 이러한 문제점을 보완하기 위해서 비매개변수적 핵밀도함수 방법과 Bootstrap 기법을 적용하여 수위의 신뢰구간을 추정하였다. 연 최대치 자료를 이용한 비매개변수적 핵밀도함수 기법을 이용한 해석결과에서는 댐의 설계빈도를 상회하는 비교적 큰 위험도 나타냈으며 홍수기의 평상수위고 가정하는 Bootstrap Resampling을 적용한 위험도는 5.11E-06의 간을 나타났다. 가장 극심한 기상상태를 가정한 해석 결과인 1.1972E-03은 본 댐은 여수로의 설계빈도가 1,000년 빈도로서 설계당시보다 확률수문량이 크게 증가된 현재 여수로 방류능력 및 안전성 상태로 고려해보면 적당한 위험도 값으로 추정된다.

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다형질 개체모형을 이용한 한국 재래닭의 주요 경제형질의 유전력

  • 최철환;상병돈;김학규;나재천;장병귀;김시동;유동조;이상진;상병찬
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society of Poultry Science Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.127-128
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    • 2003
  • This study was conducted to obtain for genetic information with 11, 538 progenies of 5 strains in Korean native chicken. The heritability estimates of the body weights at 150 and 270days of age were 0.25~0.61 and 0.32~0.59 in 5 strains, the heritabilities of the body weight at 270 days were relatively higher than that of the body weight at 150 days. The medium or low heritability estimates were observed in the ages at first egg as 0.15 ~0.31, and heritability estimates of the egg weights at the first egg and 270 days of age were 0.06~0.09 and 0.24~0.41. Medium or low heritability estimates were observed for the number of egg production as 0.09 ~0.26, respectively.

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A Study on Estimation of Design Rainfall and Uncertainty Analysis Based on Bayesian GEV Distribution (Bayesian GEV분포를 이용한 확률강우량 추정 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jin-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2012.05a
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    • pp.366-366
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    • 2012
  • 확률강우량은 하천설계, 수자원설계 및 계획을 위한 기초자료로 활용되며 최근 이상기후 및 기후변화로 인한 극치강우의 빈도 및 양적 증가로 인한 확률강우량 산정의 불확실성 분석에 대한 관심이 크게 증가하고 있다. 수문빈도 해석에 있어서 대부분 지역이 50년 이하의 수문자료가 이용되고 있으며 수문설계에서 요구되는 50년 이상의 확률강수량 추정시에는 상당한 불확실성을 내포하고 있다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 자료연수에 따른 Sampling Error와 분포형의 매개변수의 불확실성을 고려한 해석모형을 구축하고자 한다. 빈도해석에서 매개변수를 추정하기 위해서는 일반적으로 모멘트법, 최우도법, 확률가중모멘트법이 이용되고 있으나 사용되는 분포형에 따라서 통계학적으로 불확실성 구간을 정량화하는 과정이 난해할 뿐만 아니라 극치 수문자료가 Thick-Tailed분포의 특성을 가짐에도 불구하고 신뢰구간 산정시 정규분포로 가정하는 등 기존 해석 방법에는 많은 문제점을 내포하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이러한 매개변수의 불확실성 평가에 있어서 우수한 해석능력을 발휘하는 Bayesian기법을 도입하여 분포형의 매개변수를 추정하고 매개변수 추정과 관련된 불확실성을 평가하고자 한다. 이와 별개로 자료연한에 따른 Sampling Error를 추정하기 위해서 Bootstrapping 기반의 해석모형을 구축하고자 하며 최종적으로 빈도해석시에 나타나는 불확실성을 종합적으로 검토하였다. 빈도해석을 위한 확률분포형으로 GEV(generalized extreme value)분포를 이용하였으며 Gibbs 샘플러를 활용한 Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo 모의를 기본 해석모형으로 활용하였다.

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Tracking of Single Moving Object based on Motion Estimation (움직임 추정에 기반한 단일 이동객체 추적)

  • Oh Myoung-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.349-354
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    • 2005
  • The study on computer vision is aimed on creating a system to substitute the ability of human visual sensor. Especially, moving object tracking system is becoming an important area of study. In this study, we have proposed the tracking system of single moving object based on motion estimation. The tracking system performed motion estimation using differential image, and then tracked the moving object by controlling Pan/Tilt device of camera. Proposed tracking system is devided into image acquisition and preprocessing phase, motion estimation phase and object tracking phase. As a result of experiment, motion of moving object can be estimated. The result of tracking, object was not lost and tracked correctly.

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The Use Ridge Regression for Yield Prediction Models with Multicollinearity Problems (수확예측(收穫豫測) Model의 Multicollinearity 문제점(問題點) 해결(解決)을 위(爲)한 Ridge Regression의 이용(利用))

  • Shin, Man Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.79 no.3
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    • pp.260-268
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    • 1990
  • Two types of ridge regression estimators were compared with the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator in order to select the "best" estimator when multicollinearitc existed. The ridge estimators were Mallows's (1973) $C_P$-like statistic, and Allen's (1974) PRESS-like statistic. The evaluation was conducted based on the predictive ability of a yield model developed by Matney et al. (1988). A total of 522 plots from the data of the Southwide Loblolly Pine Seed Source study was used in this study. All of ridge estimators were better in predictive ability than the OLS estimator. The ridge estimator obtained by using Mallows's statistic performed the best. Thus, ridge estimators can be recommended as an alternative estimator when multicollinearity exists among independent variables.

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Genetic Parameter Estimation of Carcass Traits of Hanwoo Steers (한우 거세우의 도체형질에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Hwang, Jeong-Mi;Kim, Sidong;Choy, Yun-Ho;Yoon, Ho-Baek;Park, Cheol-Jin
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.613-620
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    • 2008
  • The genetic parameters used in National Hanwoo Genetic Evaluation(NHGE) were needed to be monitored and updated periodically for accounting any possible changes in population parameters due to selection and environmental changes. Genetic parameters were estimated with single and two-trait models with MTDFREML package using 2,791 carcass records of steers collected from Hanwoo Progeny Test Program(HPTP). Single and two-trait models gave similar parameter estimates for all traits. The heritability estimates from single and two-trait models for carcass weight(CW), dressing percentage(DP), eye muscle area(EMA), back fat thickness(BFT) and marbling score(MS) were 0.30, 0.30, 0.37, 0.44 and 0.44, respectively. The heritability estimates for all the traits except BFT were slightly lower than those used in NHGE but seemed to be within the acceptable ranges. However, further monitoring is needed because the data might not have fully reflected the changes such as carcass grading standards in performance testing program. In order to shift statistical model of NHGE from single trait model to multiple-trait model, the genetic correlations between carcass traits were estimated with pairwise two-trait models. The genetic correlation coefficients between CW and DP, between CW and EMA, between CW and BFT and between CW and MS were 0.44, 0.63, 0.17 and 0.06, respectively. Those between DP and EMA, between DP and BFT and between DP and MS were 0.29, 0.40 and 0.20. Those between EMA and BFT and between EMA and MS were -0.24 and 0.15, respectively. The genetic correlation coefficient between BFT and MS was 0.03.

Research to improve the performance of self localization of mobile robot utilizing video information of CCTV (CCTV 영상 정보를 활용한 이동 로봇의 자기 위치 추정 성능 향상을 위한 연구)

  • Park, Jong-Ho;Jeon, Young-Pil;Ryu, Ji-Hyoung;Yu, Dong-Hyun;Chong, Kil-To
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.14 no.12
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    • pp.6420-6426
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    • 2013
  • The indoor areas for the commercial use of automatic monitoring systems of mobile robot localization improves the cognitive abilities and the needs of the environment with this emerging and existing mobile robot localization, and object recognition methods commonly around its great sensor are leveraged. On the other hand, there is a difficulty with a problem-solving self-location estimation in indoor mobile robots using only the sensors of the robot. Therefore, in this paper, a self-position estimation method for an enhanced and effective mobile robot is proposed using a marker and CCTV video that is already installed in the building. In particular, after recognizing a square mobile robot and the object from the input image, and the vertices were confirmed, the feature points of the marker were found, and marker recognition was then performed. First, a self-position estimation of the mobile robot was performed according to the relationship of the image marker and a coordinate transformation was performed. In particular, the estimation was converted to an absolute coordinate value based on CCTV information, such as robots and obstacles. The study results can be used to make a convenient self-position estimation of the robot in the indoor areas to verify the self-position estimation method of the mobile robot. In addition, experimental operation was performed based on the actual robot system.

Association between Paternal Telomere Length and Offspring Production Performance in Korean Native Chickens (토종 종계 부계의 텔로미어 길이와 자식의 생산능력 간의 연관성 분석)

  • Kim, Bo Gyeong;Sohn, Sea Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.145-156
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    • 2022
  • The effect of paternal telomere length on reproductive performance, relationship between paternal and offspring telomere length, and association between paternal telomere length and offspring production performance were investigated in Korean native chickens. Using 22 paternal chickens and 329 offspring, the paternal reproductive performance such as fertility, embryo mortality, and hatchability, as well as the offspring production performance such as survival rate, body weight, and weight gain were analyzed. Telomere length was analyzed through quantitative fluorescence in situ hybridization using lymphocytes. No significant differences were observed in fertility, embryo mortality, and hatchability between paternal chicken telomere lengths (P<0.05). These results indicate that paternal telomere length had a weak negative correlation with fertility and embryonic death rate but a weak positive correlation with hatchability. The correlation coefficient between paternal telomere length and offspring survival rate was r=0.17 (P>0.05). The group of offspring with long paternal telomeres showed relatively poor growth performance. Moreover, a significant negative correlation was estimated between paternal telomere length and offspring growth performance (P<0.05). The correlation coefficient between paternal and offspring telomere lengths was r=0.075 (P>0.05). In conclusion, there was a weak association between paternal telomere length and reproductive performance, offspring survival rate, and offspring telomere length, respectively. However, paternal telomere length and offspring growth performance showed a negative relationship. Such results could be due to the re-extension of telomere length by telomere reprogramming in the early embryonic stage and the different degree of telomere shortening between individuals with increasing age after birth.

The Effect of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Skill on Wage Performance in Early Labor Market (인지 및 비인지적 요인이 임금에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Dusun;Seo, Hyonju
    • Journal of Labour Economics
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.33-73
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    • 2016
  • We examine the relationship between individual's personality trait and wage performance using administrative data collected by Korea Employment Information Service. We use Aptitude Test Battery and Five Factor Personality Inventory for individual's cognitive and noncognitive skill respectively. The results show that there are robust relationships between wages and conscientiousness, extraversion. The relationships between personality traits vary across gender. Additionally, this results imply that the return to schooling is higher for those with higher cognitive ability in early labor market.

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Approximation of Multiple Trait Effective Daughter Contribution by Dairy Proven Bulls for MACE (젖소 국제유전능력 평가를 위한 종모우별 다형질 Effective Daughter Contribution 추정)

  • Cho, Kwang-Hyun;Choi, Tae-Jeong;Cho, Chung-Il;Park, Kyung-Do;Do, Kyoung-Tag;Oh, Jae-Don;Lee, Hak-Kyo;Kong, Hong-Sik;Lee, Joon-Ho
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.399-403
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to investigate the basic concept of multiple trait effective daughter contribution (MTEDC) for dairy cattle sires and calculate effective daughter contribution (EDC) by applying a five lactation multiple trait model using milk yield test records of daughters for the Multiple-trait Across Country Evaluation (MACE). Milk yield data and pedigree information of 301,551 cows that were the progeny of 2,046 Korean and imported dairy bulls were collected from the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation and used in this study. For MTEDC approximation, the reliability of the breeding value was separated based on parents average, own yield deviation and mate adjusted progeny contribution. EDC was then calculated by lactation using these reliabilities. The average number of recorded daughters per sire by lactations were 140.57, 94.24, 55.14, 29.20 and 14.06 from the first to fifth lactation, respectively. However, the average EDC per sire by lactation using the five lactation multiple trait model was 113.49, 89.28, 73.56, 54.02 and 35.08 from the first to fifth lactation, respectively, while the decrease of EDC in late lactations was comparably lower than the average number of recorded daughters per sire. These findings indicate that the availability of daughters without late lactation records is increased by genetic correlation using the multiple trait model. Owing to the relatedness between the EDC and reliability of the estimated breeding value for sire, understanding the MTEDC algorithm and continuous monitoring of EDC is required for correct MACE application of the five lactation multiple trait model.