• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.317-326
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• 2013

Probabilistic design methods can consider uncertainties of design variables and are widely used in the design of vertical breakwaters. The probabilistic design methods include a partial safety factor method, reliabilitybased design method, and performance-based design method. Especially the performance-based design method calculates the accumulated sliding distance during the lifetime of the breakwater or during a design storm. Recently a time-dependent performance-based design method has been developed based on the first-passage probability of individual sliding distance during a design storm. However, because the allowable criteria in the first-passage probability method are not established, the stability of structures cannot be quantitatively evaluated. In this study, the allowable first-passage probabilities for two limit states are proposed by calculating the first-passage probabilities for the cross-sections designed with various water depths and characteristics of extreme wave height distributions. The allowable first-passage probabilities are proposed as 5% and 1%, respectively, for the repairable limit state (allowable individual sliding distance of 0.03 m) and ultimate limit state (allowable individual sliding distance of 0.1 m). The proposed criteria are applied to the evaluation of the effect of wave-height increase due to climate change on the stability of the breakwater.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.91-98
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• 1997

Most dynamic systems have various random properties m excitation and system parameters. In this paper, a procedure for structural response and reliability analysis is proposed for the linear dynamic system with random properties in both excitation and system parameters. The system parameter and response with random properties are modeled by the perturbation technique, and then the response analysis is formulated by probabilistic and vibration theories. Probabilistic FEM is also used for the calculation of mean response which is difficult by the proposed response model. The first passage analysis by the integral equation method is used to analyze the probability of failure. The integral equation method results in the first passage probability in terms of crossing rates and first passage probability densities. In this study it is assumed that excitations, system parameters and responses are Gaussian. As an application example, the probabilities of failure at transient state are calculated for a sdof system with random mass and spring constant subjected to stationary white-noise excitation and the results are compared to those of numerical simulation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.305-318
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• 2012

Although the existing performance-based design method for the vertical breakwater evaluates an average sliding distance during an arbitrary time, it does not calculate the probability of the first occurrence of an event exceeding an allowable sliding distance(i.e. the first-passage probability). Designers need information about the probability that the structure is damaged for the first time for not only design but also maintenance and operation of the structure. Therefore, in this study, a time-dependent reliability design method based on a stochastic process is developed to evaluate the first-passage probability of caisson sliding. Caisson sliding can be formulated by the Poisson spike process because both occurrence time and intensity of severe waves causing caisson sliding are random processes. The occurrence rate of severe waves is expressed as a function of the distribution function of sliding distance and mean occurrence rate of severe waves. These values simulated by a performance-based design method are expressed as multivariate regression functions of design variables. As a result, because the distribution function of sliding distance and the mean occurrence rate of severe waves are expressed as functions of significant wave height, caisson width, and water depth, the first-passage probability of caisson sliding can be easily evaluated.