• Title/Summary/Keyword: 최소 평균 제곱법

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Comparative Analysis of Parameter Estimation Methods in Estimation of Spatial Distribution of Probability Rainfall (확률강우량의 공간분포추정에 있어서 매개변수 추정기법의 비교분석)

  • Seo, Young-Min;Yeo, Woon-Ki;Jee, Hong-Kee
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.413-413
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    • 2011
  • 강우의 공간분포에 대한 신뢰성 있는 추정은 수자원 해석 및 설계에 있어서 필수적인 요소이다. 강우장의 공간변동성에 대한 고해상도 추정은 홍수, 특히 돌발홍수의 원인이 되는 국지성 호우의 확인 및 분석에 있어서 중요하다. 또한 강우의 공간 변동성에 대한 고려는 면적평균강우량 추정의 정확도를 향상시키는데 있어서 중요하며, 강우-유출모델의 모의결과에 대한 신뢰도를 향상시키는데 큰 영향을 미친다. 최근 공간자료에 대한 공간분포예측에 있어서 공간상관성을 고려할 수 있는 공간통계학적 기법의 적용이 증가하고 있으며, 이러한 공간통계학적 기법의 적용에 있어서 신뢰성 있는 모델 매개변수의 추정 및 불확실성 평가는 공간분포 예측결과에 대한 신뢰성을 향상시키는데 중요한 역할을 한다. 외국의 경우 공간분포예측 및 모의, 매개변수의 불확실성 평가 등과 관련하여 활발한 연구가 이루어지고 있는 반면 국내 수자원 분야에서는 아직까지 활발한 연구가 이루어지고 있지 않은 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 계층구조로 구성된 가우시안 공간선형혼합모델을 적용하여 확률강우량의 공간분포를 추정함에 있어서 모델 매개변수에 대한 추정기법을 비교하였으며, 매개변수 추정기법으로서 경험베리오그램에 대한 곡선적합기법인 보통최소제곱법 및 가중최소제곱법, 우도함수를 기반으로 하는 최우도법 및 REML과 같은 기존의 매개변수 추정기법들과 최근 공간통계학 분야에서 적용이 증가하고 있는 Bayesian 기법을 비교하였다. 이로부터 매개변수 추정기법 간의 매개변수 추정치에 대한 정량적 비교결과를 제시하였으며, Bayesian 기법의 적용을 통해 매개변수에 대한 불확실성 추정결과를 제시하였다. 이러한 결과들은 확률강우량의 공간분포 추정에 있어서 공간예측모델의 매개변수 추정 및 예측에 대한 신뢰성을 향상시킬 수 있는 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

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Impact point estimation system of the rifle based on time difference of arrival method using microphone array (마이크로폰 어레이를 이용한 도착 시간 차 기반 소총화기 탄착점 추정 시스템)

  • Won, Jongseong;Park, Kyusik
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.206-214
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    • 2018
  • This paper proposes an impact point estimation algorithm of the rifle using microphone sensors. The proposed algorithm resolves the time synchronization problem by expanding the existing ToA (Time of Arrival) method to TDoA (Time Difference of Arrival) method and verifies the performance of the algorithm through the actual shooting experiments. By comparing analysis of the actual and the estimated impact points by the algorithm, it is confirmed that the proposed algorithm has excellent performance by estimating the impact point accurately within the tolerance range.

Estimation of Prediction Values in ARMA Models via the Transformation and Back-Transformation Method (변환-역변환을 통한 자기회귀이동평균모형에서의 예측값 추정)

  • Yeo, In-Kwon;Cho, Hye-Min
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.537-546
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    • 2008
  • One of main goals of time series analysis is to estimate prediction of future values. In this paper, we investigate the bias problem when the transformation and back- transformation approach is applied in ARMA models and introduce a modified smearing estimation to reduce the bias. An empirical study on the returns of KOSDAQ index via Yeo-Johnson transformation was executed to compare the performance of existing methods and proposed methods and showed that proposed approaches provide a bias-reduced estimation of the prediction value.

The Determination of Orthometric Height based on Gravity in Korea (우리나라 수준점의 중력기반 정표고 결정)

  • Lee, Yoo-Jung;Choi, Yun-Soo;Kim, Jae-Myeong;Song, Hyun-Kun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.281-282
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    • 2010
  • 우리나라의 수직기준은 인천만의 평균해수면으로 이 높이를 기준으로 수준점의 표고를 결정한다. 현재 우리나라 수준점의 고시성과는 실제 중력의 영향을 고려하는 대신 정규중력식에 의한 타원보정량을 계산하여, 높이차를 보정한 뒤 수준원점을 고정하고 최소제곱법을 수행하여 산출한 정규표고이다. 하지만 우리나라의 경우 산지가 많아 지형의 기복이 심하고 산맥을 가로지르는 수준노선이 있어 중력에 의한 영향을 무시할 수 없으나 현재 그 영향을 고려하고 있지 못하고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 항공 중력데이터를 이용하여 수준점의 중력값을 산출한 뒤 정표고를 산출하여 현재 사용하고 있는 고시좌표와 비교해 보고자한다.

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The Application of RFM for Geometric Correction of High-Resolution Satellite Image Data (고해상도 인공위성 영상데이터의 기하보정을 위한 RFM의 적용)

  • 안기원;임환철;서두천
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.155-164
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    • 2002
  • In this study, in order to discuss the geometric correction methods of high-resolution IKONOS satellite image, the existing polynomial model and RFM which is able to rectify satellite image without auxiliary data are applied to IKONOS satellite image data. Then the accuracy of ground point versus number of GCPs and each order of RFM are assessed. A numerical instability is removed by application of Tikhonov regularization method. As the results of this study, the root mean square errors of RFM is decreased more than 2 pixels in comparison with the two dimensional polynomial model.

Comparisons of Experimental Designs and Modeling Approaches for Constructing War-game Meta-models (워게임 메타모델 수립을 위한 실험계획 및 모델링 방법에 관한 비교 연구)

  • Yoo, Kwon-Tae;Yum, Bong-Jin
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.59-74
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    • 2007
  • Computer simulation models are in general quite complex and time-consuming to run, and therefore, a simpler meta-model is usually constructed for further analysis. In this paper, JANUS, a war-game simulator, is used to describe a certain tank combat situation. Then, second-order response surface and artificial neural network meta-models are developed using the data from eight different experimental designs. Relative performances of the developed meta-models are compared in terms of the mean squared error of prediction. Computational results indicate that, for the given problem, the second-order response surface meta-model generally performs better than the neural network, and the orthogonal array-based Latin hypercube design(LHD) or LHD using maximin distance criterion may be recommended.

A simple approach to refraction statics with the Generalized Reciprocal Method and the Refraction Convolution Section (GRM과 RCS 방법을 이용한 굴절파 정적 시간차를 구하는 간단한 방법)

  • Palmer Derecke;Jones Leonie
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.18-25
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    • 2005
  • We derive refraction statics for seismic data recorded in a hard rock terrain, in which there are large and rapid variations in the depth of weathering. The statics corrections range from less than 10 ms to more than 70 ms, often over distances as short as 12 receiver intervals. This study is another demonstration of the importance in obtaining accurate initial refraction models of the weathering in hard rock terrains in which automatic residual statics may fail. We show that the statics values computed with a simple model of the weathering using the Generalized Reciprocal Method (GRM) and the Refraction Convolution Section (RCS) are comparable in accuracy to those computed with a more complex model of the weathering, using least-mean-squares inversion with the conjugate gradient algorithm (Taner et al., 1998). The differences in statics values between the GRM model and that of Taner et al. (1998) systematically vary from an average of 2ms to 4ms over a distance of 8.8 km. The differences between these two refraction models and the final statics model, which includes the automatic residual values, are generally less than 5 ms. The residuals for the GRM model are frequently less than those for the model of Taner et al. (1998). The RCS statics are picked approximately 10 ms later, but their relative accuracy is comparable to that of the GRM statics. The residual statics values show a general correlation with the refraction statics values, and they can be reduced in magnitude by using a lower average seismic velocity in the weathering. These results suggest that inaccurate average seismic velocities in the weathered layer may often be a source of short-wavelength statics, rather than any shortcomings with the inversion algorithms in determining averaged delay times from the traveltimes.

Adjustment Computation of the National Fundamental Stations Using 3-D Baseline Vectors(KTRF94) (3차원 기선벡터망 조정기법에 의한 국가기본점의 성과산정(KTRF94))

  • 이영진
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.85-94
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    • 1998
  • In year 1996, the National Geography Institute(NGI) carried out a National Fundamental Network survey. A total of 220 baselines between 31 stations were occupied that the baseline length is 40 km-120 km(mean 67.4 km). A minimally constrained network adjustment with three dimensional baseline vectors, was carried out holding geocentric ITRF94 coordinates of the station SUWON which are determined by eccentric observations from the VLBI station. This paper shows KTRF94 coordinates of fundamental stations which accuracies are estimated 1 cm in horizontal and 3 cm in vertical. Also, the coordinates are compared to WGS84 and/or KGS95.

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Reliability Analysis of MLCC Degradation Data based on Eyring Model (아이링 모델에 기초한 MLCC 열화데이터의 신뢰성 해석)

  • 김종철;김광섭;차종범
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2004.07a
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2004
  • Accelerated degradation test (ADT) can be a useful tool for assessing the reliability when few or even no failure are expected in an accelerated life test. In this paper, MLCC (Multilayer Ceramic Capacitors), a sort of passive components which have large capacitance(X7R -55$^{\circ}C$~1$25^{\circ}C$) have been tested, and least-square analyses are used to illustrate our approach in which amount of degradation of a DUT following log-normal distribution. We assumed a simple and useful linear model to describe the amount of degradation over time subjected to different voltage levels applied. Tests for linearity of the performance-time relationship, and provide tests for how well the assumptions hold. Also, by using Eyring Model, MLCC's mean life time is assessed.

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Classification of Ultrasonic NDE Signals Using the Expectation Maximization (EM) and Least Mean Square (LMS) Algorithms (최대 추정 기법과 최소 평균 자승 알고리즘을 이용한 초음파 비파괴검사 신호 분류법)

  • Kim, Dae-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Nondestructive Testing
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2005
  • Ultrasonic inspection methods are widely used for detecting flaws in materials. The signal analysis step plays a crucial part in the data interpretation process. A number of signal processing methods have been proposed to classify ultrasonic flaw signals. One of the more popular methods involves the extraction of an appropriate set of features followed by the use of a neural network for the classification of the signals in the feature spare. This paper describes an alternative approach which uses the least mean square (LMS) method and exportation maximization (EM) algorithm with the model based deconvolution which is employed for classifying nondestructive evaluation (NDE) signals from steam generator tubes in a nuclear power plant. The signals due to cracks and deposits are not significantly different. These signals must be discriminated to prevent from happening a huge disaster such as contamination of water or explosion. A model based deconvolution has been described to facilitate comparison of classification results. The method uses the space alternating generalized expectation maximiBation (SAGE) algorithm ill conjunction with the Newton-Raphson method which uses the Hessian parameter resulting in fast convergence to estimate the time of flight and the distance between the tube wall and the ultrasonic sensor. Results using these schemes for the classification of ultrasonic signals from cracks and deposits within steam generator tubes are presented and showed a reasonable performances.