• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.239-254
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• 2021

This paper studies time series analysis with estimation and forecasting for Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, based on the approach of a heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with two-piece t (TP-T) distributed errors. We consider HAR-TP-T time series models and suggest a step-by-step method to estimate HAR coefficients as well as TP-T distribution parameters. In our proposed step-by-step estimation, the ordinary least squares method is utilized to estimate the HAR coefficients while the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is adopted to estimate the TP-T error parameters. A simulation study on the step-by-step method is conducted and it shows a good performance. For the empirical analysis on the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, estimates in the HAR-TP-T models of order p = 2, 3, 4 are computed along with a couple of selected lags, which include the optimal lags chosen by minimizing the mean squares errors of the models. The estimation results by our proposed method and the solely MLE are compared with some criteria rules. Our proposed step-by-step method outperforms the MLE in two aspects: mean squares error of the HAR model and mean squares difference between the TP-T residuals and their densities. Moreover, forecasting for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases is discussed with the optimally selected HAR-TP-T model. Mean absolute percentage error of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts is evaluated as 0.0953% in the proposed model. We conclude that our proposed HAR-TP-T time series model with optimally selected lags and its step-by-step estimation provide an accurate forecasting performance for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.59 no.4
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• pp.281-293
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• 2020

The Korean thistle (Cirsium setidens) is grown in Gangwon province as a food ingredient called gondre. Based on regular monitoring of Korean thistle cultivation, we detected local outbreaks of a stick insect causing severe damage. Here we report the identification of the stick insect and its ecological characteristics. The survey involved 3 farms located in Jeongeon-gun, Gangwon province and lasted from May 28 to October 1 in 2019. According to morphological and DNA analyses the stick insect was identified as Ramulus koreanus Kwon Ha and Lee. a member of the family Phasmatidae. Its outbreak in the Korean thistle farms was observed from June 11 to August 22 with peak density on July 23. Spatial distribution analyses, using Taylors power law and Greens index showed that R. koreanus was uniformally distributed. Food consumption rate of Korean thistle leaves was estimated as 60.98±4.35 ㎠/day/adult. The main food plants were identified as Juglans mandshurica and Aronia melanocarpa. Further study needs to pursue the mechanism of the outbreak and its possible impact on agricultural and forest ecosystems. Additionally, means to relieve crop damage need to be identified.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.139-147
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• 2021

In this study, waves were defined using the water surface elevation data observed from the HeMOSU-1 and 2 marine meteorological observation towers installed on the west coast of Korea, and correlation analysis was performed between wave parameters. The wave height and wave period were determined using the wave-train analysis method and the wave spectrum analysis method, and the relationship between the wave parameters was calculated and compared with the previous study. In the relation between representative wave heights, most of the correlation coefficients between waves showed a difference of less than 0.1% in error rate compared to the previous study, and the maximum wave height showed a difference of up to 29%. In addition, as a result of the correlation analysis between the wave periods, the peak period was estimated to be abnormally large at rates of 2.5% and 1.3% in HeMOSU-1&2, respectively, due to the effect of the bimodal spectrum that occurs when the spectral energy density is small.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.351-361
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• 2022

Numerical analysis performed to predict the behavior of Ipseok-dae columnar joints in Mudeungsan National Park to understand their stability and movement. The numerical analysis technique, 3DEC, is based on the discrete element method that can analysis discontinuities. The analysis used data for material properties derived from laboratory tests, which found that average density was 2.68 kN/m³, average normal stiffness was 3.15 GPa/m, average shear stiffness was 1.00 GPa/m, average cohesion was 0.51 MPa, and the average friction angle was 33°. The Ipseok-dae columnar joints were modeled on the basis of the field survey data for 15 joints located between the observation platform and the hiking trail. The numerical analysis assessed the behavior of each columnar joint by interpreting the displacement of the edges of its upper and lower surfaces. The greatest maximum displacement was found in columnar joint No. 6, and the greatest minimum displacement was found in joint No. 11. Analyzing the movements of five discontinuities in joint No. 11 indicated that the maximum displacement occurred at the 2nd level. The other levels were ordered 5th, 4th, 1st, and 3rd in terms of subsequent greatest displacements. Considering the total displacement in the 15 studied joints, the Ipseok-dae columnar joints are judged to be stable. However, considering the cultural and historical value of Mudeungsan National Park, it is regarded that the currents slope stability should be maintained by monitoring the individual rock blocks of the joints.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.261-273
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• 2022

This study aims to predict the land use demand of Seongnam-city using system dynamics and to simulate the effect of changes in family structure and land use density adjustment policy on land use demand. This study attempted to construct causal loop diagrams and an analysis model. The changes in land use demand over time were predicted through simulation results. As a result of the analysis, as of 2035, an additional supply of 2.08 km² for residential land and 1.36 km² for commercial land is required. Additionally, the current supply area of industrial land can meet the demand. Three policy experiments were conducted by changing the variable values in the basic model. In the first policy experiment, it was found that when the number of household members decreased sharply compared to the basic model, up to 7.99 km² of additional residential land were required. In the second policy experiment, if the apartment floor area ratio was raised from 200% to 300%, it was possible to meet the demand for residential land with the current supply area of Seongnam-city. In the third policy experiment, it was found that even if the average number of floors in the commercial area was raised from four to five and the building-to-land ratio in the commercial area was raised from 80% to 85%, the demand for commercial land exceeded the supply area of the commercial area in Seongnam-city. This study is meaningful in that it proposes a new analytical model for land use demand prediction using system dynamics, and empirically analyzes the model by applying the actual urban planning status and statistics of Seongnam-city.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.37 no.11
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• pp.23-36
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• 2021

In this paper, the effect of shear rate on internal friction angle and unconfined compressive strength of non-cemented and cemented sand was investigated. A dry Jumunjin sand was prepared at loose, medium, and dense conditions with a relative density of 40, 60 and 80%. Then, series of direct shear tests were conducted at shear rates of 0.32, 0.64, and 2.54 mm/min. In addition, a cemented sand with cement ratio of 8% and 12% was compacted into a cylindrical specimen with 50 mm in diameter and 100 mm in height. Unconfined compression tests on the cemented sand were performed with various shear rates such as 0.1, 0.5, 1, 5 and 10%/min. Regardless of a degree of cementation, the unconfined compressive strength of the cemented sand and the angle of internal friction of the non-cemented sand tended to increase as the shear rate increased. For the non-cemented sand, the angle of internal friction increased by 4° at maximum as the shear rate increased. The unconfined compressive strength of the cemented sand also increased as the shear rate increased. However, its increasing pattern declined after the standard shear rate (1 mm/min). A discrete element method was also used to analyze the crack initiation and its development for the cemented sand with shear rate. Numerical results of unconfined compressive strength and failure pattern were similar to the experimental results.

• The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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• v.61 no.2
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• pp.160-178
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• 2023

Diagnosis and analysis of occlusal relationships are important factors in prosthetic treatment. A thorough occlusion analysis and evaluation should be performed before treatment to restore a stable interocclusal relationship. Analysis and evaluation are essential during the treatment process and at regular follow-ups. Recently, with the development of dental equipment and digital processing methods, new quantitative analysis methods that can record the patient's occlusal relationship have been introduced. Among them, the T-Scan Novus (Tekscan Inc., S. Boston, MA, USA) displays the strength of the initial contact point and the occlusal contact point of the teeth using a pressure sensor. With this, occlusal contact time of the teeth, anteroposterior and left-right balance of occlusal force can be compared. The Dental prescale II (GC Co., Tokyo, Japan) scans the occlusal contact point using a pressure-sensing film and analyzes the density of the contact point. It can measure the distribution and strength of the occlusal force of the teeth in the most natural occlusion state. Based on this, appropriate prosthetic treatment (four-unit fixed partial denture, removable partial denture, complete denture, and complete oral restoration cases) was performed according to the area and extent of the patient's tooth loss. The patient's occlusion at the first visit, treatment stage, right after treatment, and regular follow-up were compared and evaluated using a quantitative method for appropriate occlusion analysis using T-Scan Novus and Dental prescale II. This report enhances the understanding of occlusion analysis during prosthetic restoration. The results satisfied both the clinician and patients in terms of function and aesthetics.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.8
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• pp.77-88
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• 2010

In this study, 1 g shaking table group pile tests were performed for various conditions of subgrade and pile spacing. The pile spacing was changed from three to seven times of pile diameters. It could be confirmed that the dynamic p-y curves for the group pile observed as the results of a series of shaking table tests show difference according to the pile spacing, the pile location within the pile group, the relative density of subgrade and the excess pore pressure during earthquake. The dynamic p-multipliers were calculated by comparing the dynamic p-y backbone curves of a single pile suggested by Yang (2009) and dynamic p-y curves for the group pile. Dynamic p-multiplier values overall increase as the relative density of subgrade and amplitude of input acceleration increase. The dynamic group pile effect was neglected, if the pile spacing was seven times as large as pile diameters. It was found that the exisiting p-multiplier values suggested by various researchers for the static and dynamic loading, and the values recommended by globally used specifications show difference with the test results by up to 0.7 (approximately 70%). Therefore, the dynamic p-multipliers were newly suggested according to the pile spacing and the relative density of subgrade using the test results.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.143-151
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• 2007

The factors affecting the geotechnical properties of cemented sands are known to be relative density, cementation level, stress level, and particle characteristics such as particle size, shape and surface conditions. It has been widely accepted that the friction angle of cemented sands is not affected by cementation while the cohesion of cemented sands was significantly influenced by cementation. The cementation that is a critical component of the strength of cemented sands will be broken with increasing confining pressure and great caution is required in evaluating the cohesion of cemented specimens due to their fragilities. In this study, a series of drained shear tests were performed with specimens at various cementation levels and confining stresses to evaluate the strength parameters of cemented sands. From the experiments, it was concluded that the cohesion intercept of cemented sand experiences three distinctive zone(cementation control zone, transition zone, and stress control zone), as the cementation level and the confining stress varies. In addition, for accurate evaluation of the strength parameters, the level of confining stress triggering the breakage of cementation bond should be determined. In this study, the relationship between the maximum confining stresses capable of maintaining the cementation bond intact and unconfined compression strength of the cemented sand was established.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.11
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• pp.105-115
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• 2009

The Jeju sand was sampled from the beach in Jeju Island and its basic properties were analyzed. The cementation effect of Jeju coastal sediments was evaluated from in-situ tests such as SPT, CPT, and the Suspension-PS test. It was shown from test results that the Jeju sand has high extreme void ratios due to the angularity of grains and the intra-particle voids of hollow particles, similar to typical calcareous sands. From cone penetration test in the calibration chamber, it was found that the cone resistance($q_c$)-relative density($D_R$)-vertical effective stress(${\sigma}_v'$) relation of Jeju sand almost matches that of high compressible quartz sand. However, the $q_C-D_R-{\sigma}_v'$ correlation suggested for uncemented Jeju sand overestimates the relative density of coastal sediments of Jeju Island due to the cementation effect. From the analysis of the relation of cone resistance, N value, and small strain shear modulus measured in-situ, it seems reasonable to assume that the coastal sediment of Jeju Island is a naturally cemented one.