• Title/Summary/Keyword: 직접추정모형

Search Result 279, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Development of International Passenger Travel Demand Models for the ASEAN Region (아세안지역의 국가간 여객통행수요 추정모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Mun, Jin-Su;Park, Jun-Hwan;Jung, Ho-Young
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.26 no.6
    • /
    • pp.7-15
    • /
    • 2008
  • Due to the limitations in the statistical data, the existing studies adopted rough methodologies with strong assumptions in the estimation of international passenger travel demand forecast in the ASEAN region. This study aims to develop international passenger travel demand models using scientific methodologies. This study proposes a direct demand model using the immigration and emigration data between countries in the region. This is because of the difficulty of estimating trip generation and trip distribution separately due to the data limitation in the region. As there does not exist the mode choice model for the region, this study estimates a mode choice model using the Stated Preference technique. The mode choice model is separated into three categories of models according to the range of distance between the origin and destination of travel; this is to reflect the different behavior in mode choice according to the travel distance. The result of model estimations suggests that the estimated models produce resonable results statistically. It is expected that the proposed models are useful for the future travel demand estimation in the ASEAN region.

Comparison of Particle-Size Distribution Models for Estimating Water Retention Characteristic (토양수분특성 추정을 위한 입자크기분포 모형들의 비교)

  • 황상일
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.7 no.3
    • /
    • pp.103-114
    • /
    • 2002
  • Knowledge of soil water retention characteristic is essential for many problems involving water flow and organic solute transport in unsaturated soils. A physico-empirical approach based on the translation of the particle-size distribution (PSD) into a corresponding water retention curve has been accomplished by others using the concept that the pore-size distribution is directly related to PSD. This approach implies that details of a PSD curve may affect the estimation of water retention characteristic (WRC). To determine whether the WRC estimation using the Arya-Paris model could be affected by the selection of a PSD model, four PSD models with one to four fitting parameters were used. The Jaky model with only one fitting parameter had greater WRC estimation ability than other models with greater number of fitting parameters. The better performance of the Jaky model may be explained by the effect of soil structure in field soils.

Estimating the Determinants of foreign direct investment of korea : A Panel Data Model Approach (페널 데이터모형을 적용한 한국의 해외 직접투자 결정요인 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul;Shin, Hyun-Dae
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.231-240
    • /
    • 2008
  • In respect complication, group and period, the foreign direct investment of korea is composed of various factors. This paper studies focus on estimating the determinants of foreign direct investment of korea. The region of analysis consist of 7 groups, that is, Asia, Europe, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, Middle East. Analyzing period be formed over a 67 point(2002. 6${\sim}$2007. 12). In this paper dependent variable setting up an amount of foreign direct investment, explanatory(independent) variables composed of gross domestic product, a balance of current accounts, the foreign exchange rate, employment to population ratio, an average of the rate of operation(the manufacturing industry), consumer price index, the amount of export, wages(a service industry). For an actual proof analysis, LIMDEP 8.0 software, analysis model is random effect in TWECR The result of estimating the determinants of foreign direct investment of korea provides empirical evidences of significance positive relationships between employment to population ratio and wages(a service industry). However this study provides empirical evidences of significance negative relationships between the foreign exchange rate, censurer price index and the amount of export. The explanatory variables, that is, an average of the rate of operation(the manufacturing industry), gross domestic product and a balance of current accounts, are non-significance variables.

  • PDF

소지역 추정법을 이용한 시군구의 실업자 추정

  • 이계오;정연수
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association for Survey Research Conference
    • /
    • 2000.11a
    • /
    • pp.229-250
    • /
    • 2000
  • 신뢰할 만한 소지역 통계 작성을 위한 다양한 소지역 추정 기법들이 최근 많은 관심속에 개발되고 있다. 이 논문은 다양한 소지역 추정 기법들 중 일부 기법들에 대한 간략한 소개 및 실례를 제시한다. 먼저 대표적인 소지역에 대한 간접추정법인 인구통계학적 방법, 합성추정법과 복합추정법에 관한 이론 및 추정절차를 살펴보았고, 모형 기반 추정법으로써 경험적 베이즈(EB) 추정법과 계층적 베이즈(HB) 추정법을 소개하였다. 마지막으로 합성추정법과 복합추정법을 이용하여 충북의 시군구 실업자 추정에 적용해 보았고, 시군구 실업자 추정결과를 직접 추정법의 결과와 비교하였다.

  • PDF

Estimation of Water Retention Characteristics Using Lognormal Distribution Model (로그분포모형을 이용한 토양수분특성 추정)

  • Sang Il Hwang
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.8 no.4
    • /
    • pp.21-26
    • /
    • 2003
  • Hwang and Powers (2003) developed a simple model for estimating water retention characteristic (WRC) directly from particle-size distribution (PSD) data, by applying a lognormal distribution law to both PSD and pore-size distribution. The objective of this work was to determine if the performance of the model developed by Hwang and Powers (2003) would be affected by soil texture. The results of this research proved that the performance of the model was indeed affected by soil texture. In particular, its performance diminished with increases in the fine particle fractions. Also, the nonlinear model, which assumes a nonlinear relation between particle-size and pore-size, performed better than the linear model, regardless of soil texture classes.

IRT 모수 추정에서 초기값에 관한 연구

  • Park, Yeong-Seon;Cha, Gyeong-Jun;Jang, Chang-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
    • /
    • 2003.05a
    • /
    • pp.7-12
    • /
    • 2003
  • 문항반응이론(IRT)에서 문항특성곡선(ICC)의 모수를 추정하는 경우에 발생되는 초기값(initial value) 문제를 비선형 로지스틱모형을 선형 회귀모형으로 근사화하여 해결하고자 하였다. 특히, 신규 또는 잡음이 섞인(local fluctuation) 문항의 직접적인 평가와 소규모집단별 검사가 이루어질 수 있는 현실적 문제에서 모수추정의 대안으로서 그 의의가 있을 수 있다.

  • PDF

확률화 응답모형의 한계에 대한 고찰

  • 박진우
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
    • /
    • v.4 no.2
    • /
    • pp.411-419
    • /
    • 1997
  • 본 연구에서는 확률화응답모형이 가지는 두가지 한계에 대하여 고찰하였다. 첫째 민감한 속성을 갖는 모비율의 추정시 모비율 $\pi_A$가 매우 작은 값일 경우, 즉 희귀속성일 경우 확률화응답모형을 적용하게 되면 비밀보장의 효과를 감안한다고 해도 직접질문법에 비해 비효율적일 수 있음을 지적하였다. 둘째로 비밀보장에서 오는 이점과 그로 인한 효율의 손실이라는 서로 상충되는 면을 객관적으로 고려하는데 있어서 한계가 있음을 지적하였다.

  • PDF

Small area estimations for disease mapping by using spatial model (질병지도 작성을 위해 공간모형을 이용한 소지역 추정)

  • An, Daeseong;Han, Junhee;Yoon, Taeho;Kim, Changhoon;Noh, Maengseok
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.101-109
    • /
    • 2015
  • SMRs (standardized mortality rates) for major diseases, accidents, cancer are considered in small areas of administrative units such as Eup/Myeon/Dong from years 2005 to 2008. Due to small sample issue in small areas, the precision of directly estimated crude SMR for each area can be low. In this study, we consider the HGLM (hierarchical generalized linear model) with MRF (Markov random field) to account for the spatial correlations among the small areas. The effects of covariates for cause of mortality by Dongs in Seoul and disease maps based on the estimated SMR are presented. The results suggest how we analyze and interpret the difference in mortalities by small areas such as Dongs by revealing the spatial patterns.

Model Validation Methods of Population Pharmacokinetic Models (집단 약동학 모형을 위한 모형 진단과 적합도 검정에 대한 고찰)

  • Lee, Eun-Kyung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.25 no.1
    • /
    • pp.139-152
    • /
    • 2012
  • The result of the analysis of a population pharmacokinetic model can directly influence the decision of the dose level applied to the targeted patients. Therefore the validation procedure of the final model is very important in this area. This paper reviews the validation methods of population pharmacokinetic models from a statistical viewpoint. In addition, the whole procedure of the analysis of population pharmacokinetics, from the base model to the final model (that includes various validation procedures for the final model) is tested with real clinical data.

Development of Fuzzy Travel Time Estimator for Interrupted Traffic Flow (단속류 퍼지 통행시간 추정기의 개발)

  • 오기도;김영찬
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.18 no.5
    • /
    • pp.57-67
    • /
    • 2000
  • Two fuzzy travel time estimators for interrupted traffic flow were developed based on field survey data and simulation data 7hat is collected from DETSIM, which is microscopic traffic simulation model that car-following theory is applied. One is FETTOS(Fuzzy Estimator of Travel Time using Occupancy and Spot speed) and the other is FETTOS(Fuzzy Estimator of Travel Speed using Volume and Occupancy). Fuzzy logic controller was applied to the estimators to deal with non-linear relationship between traffic variables and travel time. According to results of simulation and field survey. estimation of travel time can be modeled by using percent occupancy better than any other traffic variables. Detector location from storyline and signal timing Plan of intersection are affected to estimate travel time. With a few findings, the estimator was constructed and its performance was tested for observed travel time data and simulated data. FETTOS which needs signal timing plan and detector location estimates travel time with accurate better than FETSVO does. However. FETSVO has excellent transferability because the estimator needs set of input data only; volume and time mean speed.

  • PDF