• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.38 no.1
• /
• pp.33-45
• /
• 1978

The purpose of present study is to analyze the genetic variation of natural stand of Pinus densiflora. In 1975 following after the selection of 1974, twenty trees from each of three natural populations of the species were selected and their open-pollinated seeds were collected, and the locations and conditions of the populations ate presented in table 1, 2 and figure 1. Some morphological traits of the populations were already detailed in our second report of this series, in which Myong-Ju and Ul-Jin populations were regarded to be superior phenotypically to suweon population. The morphological traits of cone, seed and seed-wing, and also the growth performances and needle characters of the seedling were observed in the present study according to the previous methods. The results obtained are summarized as follows; 1. The meteorological data obtained by averaging the records of 30 year period (1931~1960) measured from the nearest meteorological stations to each population are shown in fig.2, 3, 4. The distributional patterns of investigated climate factors are generally considered to be similar among the locations. However, the precipitation density during growing season and the air temperature during dormant season on Suweon area, population 6, were quite different from those of the other areas. 2. The measurements of fresh cone weight, length, diameter and cone index, i.e., length to diameter ratio are presented in table 7. As shown in table 7, all these traits except for cone diameter seem to be highly significant in population differences and family differences within population. 3. The morphological traits of seed and seed-wing are detailed in table 8, 9, and highly significant differences are recognized among the populations and the families within population in seed-wing length, seed-wing index, seed weight, seed-length and seed index but not among the populations in the other observed traits. The values of correlation coefficient between the characters of cone and seed are given in table 10 and the positive significant correlations can be observed in the most parts of the compared traits. 4. Significant statistical differences among populations and families within population are observed in the growth performances of 1-0 and 1-1 seedling height of these progenies. But the differences in root collar diameter are shown only among families within population. As shown in table 13, the most parts of correlations are not significant statistically between the growth performances of seedling and the seed characters. 5. The number of stomata row on both sides of needle and the serration density were measured in the seedlings from each of the families of the three populations. As shown in table 15, statistical differences are considered to be significant among the populations and among the families within population in serration density but not among the populations in stomata row on both sides of the needle. The results differ from those of the third report of this series. Even if one of the reason seems to be the diversity of selected populations, it could not be confirmed definitely. The correlations between progenies and parents are not generally observed in the investigated traits of needle as shown in table 16.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.20 no.4
• /
• pp.155-169
• /
• 2014

With the rapid advances in technologies, organizations are more likely to depend on information systems in their decision-making processes. Business Intelligence (BI) systems, in particular, have become a mainstay in dealing with complex problems in an organization, partly because a variety of advanced computational methods from statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can be applied to solve business problems such as demand forecasting. In addition to the ability to analyze past and present trends, these predictive analytics capabilities provide huge value to an organization's ability to respond to change in markets, business risks, and customer trends. While the performance effects of BI system use in organization settings have been studied, it has been little discussed on the use of predictive analytics technologies embedded in BI systems for forecasting tasks. Thus, this study aims to find important factors that can help to take advantage of the benefits of advanced technologies of a BI system. More generally, a BI system can be viewed as an advisor, defined as the one that formulates judgments or recommends alternatives and communicates these to the person in the role of the judge, and the information generated by the BI system as advice that a decision maker (judge) can follow. Thus, we refer to the findings from the advice-giving and advice-taking literature, focusing on the role of explanations of the system in users' advice taking. It has been shown that advice discounting could occur when an advisor's reasoning or evidence justifying the advisor's decision is not available. However, the majority of current BI systems merely provide a number, which may influence decision makers in accepting the advice and inferring the quality of advice. We in this study explore the following key factors that can influence users' advice taking within the setting of a BI system: explanations on how the box-office grosses are predicted, types of advisor, i.e., system (data mining technique) or human-based business advice mechanisms such as prediction markets (aggregated human advice) and human advisors (individual human expert advice), users' evaluations of the provided advice, and individual differences in decision-makers. Each subject performs the following four tasks, by going through a series of display screens on the computer. First, given the information of the given movie such as director and genre, the subjects are asked to predict the opening weekend box office of the movie. Second, in light of the information generated by an advisor, the subjects are asked to adjust their original predictions, if they desire to do so. Third, they are asked to evaluate the value of the given information (e.g., perceived usefulness, trust, satisfaction). Lastly, a short survey is conducted to identify individual differences that may affect advice-taking. The results from the experiment show that subjects are more likely to follow system-generated advice than human advice when the advice is provided with an explanation. When the subjects as system users think the information provided by the system is useful, they are also more likely to take the advice. In addition, individual differences affect advice-taking. The subjects with more expertise on advisors or that tend to agree with others adjust their predictions, following the advice. On the other hand, the subjects with more knowledge on movies are less affected by the advice and their final decisions are close to their original predictions. The advances in predictive analytics of a BI system demonstrate a great potential to support increasingly complex business decisions. This study shows how the designs of a BI system can play a role in influencing users' acceptance of the system-generated advice, and the findings provide valuable insights on how to leverage the advanced predictive analytics of the BI system in an organization's forecasting practices.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.29-45
• /
• 2015

Systematic theory, concepts, and methodology for the biological evolution have been developed while patterns and principles of the evolution have been actively studied in the past 200 years. Furthermore, they are applied to various fields such as evolutionary economics, evolutionary psychology, evolutionary linguistics, making significant progress in research. In addition, existing studies have applied main biological evolutionary models to artifacts although such methods do not fit to them. These models are also limited to generalize evolutionary patterns of artifacts because they are designed in terms of a subjective point of view of experts who know well about the artifacts. Unlike biological organisms, because artifacts are likely to reflect the imagination of the human will, it is known that the theory of biological evolution cannot be directly applied to artifacts. In this paper, beyond the individual's subjective, the aim of our research is to present evolutionary patterns of a given artifact based on peeping the idea of the public. For this, we propose a text mining approach that presents a systematic framework that can find out the evolutionary patterns of a given artifact and then visualize effectively. In particular, based on our proposal, we focus mainly on a case study of mobile phone that has emerged as an icon of innovation in recent years. We collect and analyze review posts on mobile phone available in the domestic market over the past decade, and discuss the detailed results about evolutionary patterns of the mobile phone. Moreover, this kind of task is a tedious work over a long period of time because a small number of experts carry out an extensive literature survey and summarize a huge number of materials to finally draw a diagram of evolutionary patterns of the mobile phone. However, in this work, to minimize the human efforts, we present a semi-automatic mining algorithm, and through this research we can understand how human creativity and imagination are implemented. In addition, it is a big help to predict the future trend of mobile phone in business and industries.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.16 no.3
• /
• pp.99-120
• /
• 2010

Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

• Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.767-788
• /
• 2010

The purpose of this study was to examine emotional characteristics and to provide information about the special needs of counselling of science gifted in Korea. The subjects were 143 science gifted high school students in Busan that had been tested MBTI and MMPI-A. The distribution map of MBTI type was examined and Pearson's correlation, one-way ANOVA, multiple regression analysis were used to analyse the relation between MBTI and MMPI-A through SPSS 17.0 program. The results showed as follows: first, ENTP, INTP, ISTJ personality types and NT temperament type were the most frequently from the distribution map of MBTI type. Second, F1, F2, F, Hs, D, Pt, Sc and Si scales of MMPI-A were positively related to I preference of MBTI and K and Ma scales of MMPI-A were significantly related to E preference of MBTI from Pearson's correlation. Third, The score of IN group was significantly more high in F1, Hs, D, SC and Si scales of MMPI-A than other group in the relation between two combination preferences of MBTI and scale of MMPI-A. The following results were same; IS group in D, Si scales, EN group in Ma scale, IT group in Hs, D, Pt and S scales, IF group in VRIN, D and Si scales, ET in Ma scale, IJ group in D and Si, IP group in F1, F, Hs, D, Hy, Pt, Sc and Si scales, EJ and EP groups in Ma scale. Finally, I preference of MBTI by F1, F2, F, Hs, D, Pt, Sc and Si scales of MMPI-A, E preference of MBTI by Ma scale of MMPI-A, F preference of MBTI by K scale of MMPI-A and P preference of MBTI by Hy scale of MMPI-A were significantly predicted from multiple regression analysis. Limitations of the current study and the suggestions for further research were offered.

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.10 no.4
• /
• pp.47-53
• /
• 2012

Businesses make use of advertising strategy using models to give consumers efficient product information. Modern advertisements often make use of models for greater reminiscence to create messages and remind viewers of the product. The purpose of this study was to examine the characteristics of each type of model. The subjects were 230 college students in their twenties or older, and the material was collected from October 20, 2011 to November 5, 2011 to examine the effects of model characteristics on buying intention as well as attitude toward a brand. A questionnaire survey was used; investigators gave one copy to each interviewee. The study investigated the characteristics of each model using a questionnaire of each 40 copies with five kinds of photographs. The characteristics of models had great influence on buying intention and attitude toward the brand: First, factor 2 (being honest and virtuous and having good credit and a good press assessment) and factor 3 (being interesting and a good communicator and creating good memories) had great influence on buying intention. Factor 2 was explained by reliability, and factor 3 by the efficiency of the model in creating a feeling. Second, factors 1 (being attractive, smart, unique, friendly, loved by others, and popular), 2, and 3 influenced attitude toward brand. Factor 1 encapsulated the outgoing characteristics of a model, factor 2 was based on reliability, and factor 3 was based on the efficiency of the model in creating a feeling. The model's positive effects on buying intention and attitudes toward brand shall be examined. For their positive influence on buying intention, reliability and efficiency shall be given attention. For their positive influence on attitude toward brand, creating a good impression, having outgoing characteristics, being reliable, and efficiency shall be given attention. The findings were as follows: Model characteristics influencing buying intention were similar to those influencing attitude toward brand. The differences were as follows. First, reliability and efficiency influenced buying intention. When customers were asked to consider the influence on buying intention of an advertisement, regardless of the strength of the buying intention, they considered these two characteristics. Customers decided to buy based not only on the credibility of the product as presented in the advertisement but also the transmission of the contents of the advertisement. Second, outgoing characteristics, reliability, and efficiency influenced attitude toward a brand. The attitude toward a brand was said to be the attitude toward the business. The attitude is produced even after buying, so businesses view it as very important. The attitude might vary depending upon the model used rather than the brand. Therefore, a model with outgoing characteristics was thought to be important. Therefore, attitude toward a brand whose model influenced buying intention as well as attitude toward brand had outgoing characteristics. The result is that an image the model was related to attitude toward the brand. As such, customers would buy the goods advertised. However, an outgoing image of a model was also important to create a positive attitude toward a business brand. For instance, talent Park Gyeong-Rim's photo was used to promote cosmetics about 10 years ago. When she worked as a model of cosmetics products, she had to make compensation for losses and damages because she made a mistake on a talk show program. At that time, customers who had bought the cosmetics product asked for refunds of several billion won. As such, models who are said to be the face of the businesses they represent can play an important role. To advertise in the most attractive and effective way, the current image of a model should be investigated by examining current activities and news articles after selecting the model, and the model's efficiency and attitude toward the brand should be examined. Factors that stimulate customers' buying decisions can be used to plan advertisement that have positive influence on a brand. This study had the limitation of investigating mainly college students and there were insufficient copies of the questionnaire. The investigation was not done widely but in detail so that a concrete investigation could not be done. Further studies shall supplement these shortcomings and discuss new directions.

• Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
• /
• v.25 no.4
• /
• pp.441-449
• /
• 2005

The purpose of this study was to examine the degree of cognitive conflict by learner personality and the method of presenting anomalous data to induce cognitive conflict. The participants of this study were 461 high school students. To arose cognitive conflict, an actual demonstration was done for half of the participants and a logical article for the rest. MBTI (Myers-Briggs Type Indicator) was used to find the learner personality types, and CCLT (Cognitive Conflict Level Test) was used to measure the degree of cognitive conflict aroused when anomalous data was confronted. The results of this study indicated that learner personality types influence the degree of cognitive conflict. First, participants were divided into two personality types via preferences on each of the four preference indices; extraversion (E) or introversion (I), sensing (S) or intuition (N), thinking (T) or feeling (F), judgment (J) or perception (P). The cognitive conflict scores of the thinking types were significantly higher than those of the feeling types. Participants were also divided four personality types according to personality functional types: ST, SF, NT and NF. SF type showed a significantly lower cognitive conflict score than any of the other types. According to the type of learner personality, cognitive conflict was influenced differently by the method of presenting anomalous data. For example, the judgment types had a higher cognitive conflict score by logical argument, and the perception types showed a higher score by demonstration. In conclusion, learner cognitive conflicts were influenced by personality types and the methods of presenting anomalous data.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
• /
• v.19 no.2
• /
• pp.15-24
• /
• 2018

Despite the recognition of the need for productivity information and its importance, the feedback of productivity information is not well-established in the construction industry. Effective use of productivity information is required to improve the reliability of construction planning. However, in many cases, on-site productivity information is hardly management effectively, but rather it relies on the experience and/or intuition of project participants. Based on the literature review and expert interviews, the authors recognized that one of the possible solutions is to develop a systematic approach in dealing with productivity information of the construction job-sites. It is required that the new system should not be burdensome to users, purpose-oriented information management, easy-to follow information structure, real-time information feedback, and productivity-related factor recognition. Based on the preliminary investigations, this study proposed a framework for a novel system that facilitate the effective management of construction productivity information. This system has utilized Sketchup software which has good user accessibility by minimizing additional data input and related workload. The proposed system has been designed to input, process, and output the pertinent information through a four-stage process: preparation, input, processing, and output. The inputted construction information is classified into Task Breakdown Structure (TBS) and Material Breakdown Structure (MBS), which are constructed by referring to the contents of the standard specification of building construction, and converted into productivity information. In addition, the converted information is also graphically visualized on the screen, allowing the users to use the productivity information from the job-site. The productivity information management system proposed in this study has been pilot-tested in terms of practical applicability and information availability in the real construction project. Very positive results have been obtained from the usability and the applicability of the system and benefits are expected from the validity test of the system. If the proposed system is used in the planning stage in the construction, the productivity information and the continuous information is accumulated, the expected effectiveness of this study would be conceivably further enhanced.

• Journal of the Korean Vacuum Society
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.322-330
• /
• 2008

The properties of discharge, luminance, and spectroscopy are investigated in a longitudinal and transverse discharge fluorescent lamps with tube of outer diameter 4 mm. The sample lamps are prepared to be three kinds of gas composition such as mercury lamps of Ne(95%)+Ar(5%)+Hg(2 mg), the mercury-free lamps of Xe 100% and Ne+Xe(4%). The gas pressure is in the range of $5{\sim}300\;Torr$. In the mercury lamps, the longitudinal discharge having a positive column is high in luminance and efficiency, while the transverse discharge is no luminance at all. In the Xe-lamps, the transverse discharge shows relatively good in efficiency as compared with the longitudinal discharge which has a high discharge voltage and a low luminance and efficiency. In the transverse discharge of relatively high efficiency, a pure Xe(100%) gas discharge has a higher efficiency than the mixture gas of Ne+Xe(4%). Through these experiments, the properties of mercury and xenon lamps are verified. In the mercury lamps, the longitudinal discharge of tubular fluorescent lamps is high in luminance and efficiency, while the transverse discharge of flat panel fluorescent lamps are low in luminance efficiency. In the mercury-free lamps, the flat fluorescent lamps of transverse discharge having a high pressure ${\sim}100\;Torr$ with the pure Xe-gas are verified to be suggestable.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.21 no.4
• /
• pp.17-35
• /
• 2015

Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.