• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지진 예측

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Groundwater Level Prediction Using ANFIS Algorithm (ANFIS 알고리즘을 이용한 지하수수위 예측)

  • Bak, Gwi-Man;Bae, Young-Chul
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1235-1240
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    • 2019
  • It is well known that the ground water level changes rapidly before and after the earthquake, and the variation of ground water level prediction is used to predict the earthquake. In this paper, we predict the ground water level in Miryang City using ANFIS algorithm for earthquake prediction. For this purpose, this paper used precipitation and temperature acquired from National Weather Service and data of underground water level from Rural Groundwater Observation Network of Korea Rural Community Corporation which is installed in Miryang city, Gyeongsangnam-do. We measure the prediction accuracy using RMSE and MAPE calculation methods. As a result of the prediction, the periodic pattern was predicted by natural factors, but the change value of ground water level was changed by other variables such as artificial factors that was not detected. To solve this problem, it is necessary to digitize the ground water level by numerically quantifying artificial variables, and to measure the precipitation and pressure according to the exact location of the observation ball measuring the ground water level.

Regional Estimation of Site-specific Seismic Responses at Gyeongju by Building GIS-based Geotechnical Information System (GIS 기반의 지반 정보 시스템 구축을 통한 경주 지역 부지고유 지진 응답의 지역적 평가)

  • Sun, Chang-Guk;Chung, Choon-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.38-50
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    • 2008
  • The site-specific seismic responses and corresponding seismic hazards are influenced mainly by the subsurface geologic and geotechnical dynamic characteristics. To estimate reliably the seismic responses in this study, a geotechnical information system (GTIS) within GIS framework was developed by introducing new concepts, which consist of the extended area containing the study area and the additional site visit for acquiring surface geo-knowledge data. The GIS-based GTIS was built for Gyeongju area, which has records of abundant historical seismic hazards reflecting the high potential of future earthquakes. At the study area, Gyeongju, intensive site investigations and pre-existing geotechnical data collections were performed and the site visits were additionally carried out for assessing geotechnical characteristics and shear wave velocity ($V_S$) representing dynamic property. Within the GTIS for Gyeongju area, the spatially distributed geotechnical layers and $V_S$ in the entire study area were reliably predicted from the site investigation data using the geostatistical kriging method. Based on the spatial geotechnical layers and $V_S$ predicted within the GTIS, a seismic zoning map on site period ($T_G$) from which the site-specific seismic responses according to the site effects can be estimated was created across the study area of Gyeongju. The spatial $T_G$ map at Gyeongju indicated seismic vulnerability of two- to five-storied buildings. In this study, the seismic zonation based on $T_G$ within the GIS-based GTIS was presented as regional efficient strategy for seismic hazard prediction and mitigation.

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Earthquake Monitoring : Future Strategy (지진관측 : 미래 발전 전략)

  • Chi, Heon-Cheol;Park, Jung-Ho;Kim, Geun-Young;Shin, Jin-Soo;Shin, In-Cheul;Lim, In-Seub;Jeong, Byung-Sun;Sheen, Dong-Hoon
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.268-276
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    • 2010
  • Earthquake Hazard Mitigation Law was activated into force on March 2009. By the law, the obligation to monitor the effect of earthquake on the facilities was extended to many organizations such as gas company and local governments. Based on the estimation of National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the number of free-surface acceleration stations would be expanded to more than 400. The advent of internet protocol and the more simplified operation have allowed the quick and easy installation of seismic stations. In addition, the dynamic range of seismic instruments has been continuously improved enough to evaluate damage intensity and to alert alarm directly for earthquake hazard mitigation. For direct visualization of damage intensity and area, Real Time Intensity COlor Mapping (RTICOM) is explained in detail. RTICOM would be used to retrieve the essential information for damage evaluation, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Destructive earthquake damage is usually due to surface waves which just follow S wave. The peak amplitude of surface wave would be pre-estimated from the amplitude and frequency content of first arrival P wave. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system is conventionally defined to estimate local magnitude from P wave. The status of EEW is reviewed and the application of EEW to Odesan earthquake is exampled with ShakeMap in order to make clear its appearance. In the sense of rapidity, the earthquake announcement of Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA) might be dramatically improved by the adaption of EEW. In order to realize hazard mitigation, EEW should be applied to the local crucial facilities such as nuclear power plants and fragile semi-conduct plant. The distributed EEW is introduced with the application example of Uljin earthquake. Not only Nation-wide but also locally distributed EEW applications, all relevant information is needed to be shared in real time. The plan of extension of Korea Integrated Seismic System (KISS) is briefly explained in order to future cooperation of data sharing and utilization.

Generation of Tsunami Hazard Map (지진해일 재해정보도 제작)

  • Ahn, Seong-Ho;Ha, Tae-Min;Cho, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2010
  • In the ocean area surrounding the Korean Peninsula, the undersea earthquakes have occurred frequently during last decades. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is very vulnerable to tsunami attacks which occur along the Western Coast of Japan. In special, the middle areas of the eastern coast of Korean Peninsula have been damaged due to the Central East Sea Tsunami occurred in 1983. Thus, tsunami hazard mitigation becomes an important issue at eastern coastal communities. The countermeasures against unexpected tsunami attacks are not sufficient because the government policy generally focused on not preventing but recovering. In this paper, a hazard map based on the field survey and tsunami evacuation simulation is developed to mitigate tsunami damage at Imwon port, which was severely damaged during the 1983 Central East Sea Tsunami.

Determination of Structural Performance Point Utilizing The Seismic Isolation Rubber Bearing Design Method (면진격리 고무베어링 설계법을 이용한 구조물의 성능점 예측)

  • 김창훈;좌동훈
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2003
  • The seismic base isolation design approach has been reviewed and modified to fit the nonlinear static analysis procedure for determination of the performance point of structures in a simpler way, such an adaptation may be possible for the fact that a structural system under development of damage due to earthquake loading keeps softening to result in period shifting toward longer side. The superiority of the proposed method to the state-of-the-practice approach is that the reasonably accurate performance point can be obtained without constructing the so-called acceleration displacement response spectrum required in application of capacity spectrum method. The validity of the proposed approach was verified by comparing the predicted values to the exact ones presented in the literature.

Socio-Economic Impacts of an Unscheduled Event: A Case in Korea (재해발생으로 인한 사회-경제적 영향분석: 우리나라 사례를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Seong-Kwan;Kang, Seung-Lim;Kim, Tschang-Ho John
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.117-126
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    • 2009
  • Total number of recorded earthquakes in Korea is more than 2,000 of which 48 were catastrophic. The impacts from infrastructure damage due to an earthquake to production facilities and lifelines may spread across boundaries of several regions via import-export relationships and can bring serious economic impact to other regions. The economic impacts from unscheduled events stem not only from the damage and direct losses, but also from the indirect losses during the recovery and reconstruction periods. To recover and reconstruct the facilities and lifelines damaged by unexpected events through investment or government financial aid, both the direct and the indirect economic impacts from an event need to be measured in regional and interregional contexts. Direct economic impact is the direct change of production and demand due to the disruption of production facilities and lifelines from an unexpected event, and indirect economic impact is the change in other sectors due to inter-industry relationships. The purpose of the paper is to analyze various economic impacts of an earthquake, especially impacts on transportation networks in Korea. We collected spatial and economic data from Korea, and analyzed and estimated final demand loss and commodity flows from the unscheduled event.

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Seismic Fragility Analysis of a RC Bridge Including Earthquake Intensity Range (지진강도 범위를 고려한 철근콘크리트 교량의 지진취약도 해석)

  • Lee, Do Hyung;Jeong, Hyeon Do;Kim, Byeong Hwa
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.635-643
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    • 2018
  • In the present study, influence of earthquake intensity range on seismic fragility analysis of a RC bridge has been evaluated. For this purpose, a RC bridge damaged by a past earthquake has been selected, and analytical model of the bridge has been developed for nonlinear dynamic time-history analysis. A total of 25 recorded earthquake motions have been employed for the nonlinear analysis from which maximum lateral drift ratio of piers are obtained. Then, seismic fragility analysis has been conducted for the bridge using the nonlinear analysis results. Probability of exceeding damage has been computed in terms of using the maximum likelihood estimation, and effect of earthquake intensity range of the motions on seismic fragility curves has been assessed analytically. Analytical predictions indicate that the earthquake intensity range is of utmost significance for rationale seismic fragility analysis reflecting a physical damage state of a bridge and seismic performance evaluation of such bridge.