• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지정학적 요인

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2019년 거시경제 전망

  • Han, Jeong-Min;Min, Seong-Hwan
    • The Optical Journal
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    • s.173
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    • pp.38-44
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    • 2019
  • 올해 국내 실물경기는 수출 증가세가 점차 둔화되고, 내수도 소비의 둔화와 투자의 감소 전환 등의 영 향으로 완연한 하락세를 보였다. 내수는 설비투자와 건설투자가 크게 감소하면서 급속한 조정 양상을 보이고 있으며, 소비도 연 2%대 증가율로 떨어지면서 둔화세를 기록하고 있다. 수출은 물량의 증가세가 유지되고 있으나, 단가는 기저효과로 인한 유가상승 폭의 축소 등의 영향으로 상승률이 떨어지면서 증가세가 둔화되었다. 2019년 세계경제는 선진권의 경기둔화와 개도권의 성장률 정체가 예상되는 가운데 하방 리스크 요인으로 인해 제한적 성장이 예상된다. 선진권은 미국경제의 성장률 하락이 예상되는 한편, 일본과 유로권도 전년보다는 약간 낮은 성장률이, 중국은 연 6%대 초반까지 성장률 하락이 예상된다. 국제유가는 글로벌 경기 둔화에 따른 원유의 수요 감소와 미 달러화의 가치 상승 등 금융 요인이 하방 압력으로 작용하나, OPEC의 감산 지속과 지정학적 불안정성이 상승 요인으로 작용하면서 연평균 보합이 예상된다. 환율은 미 달러화의 강세기조가 2019년 상반기까지 이어질 것으로 예상되지만, 하반기에는 유럽 등지의 통화긴축 전환과 미국경기 둔화 등의 영향으로 달러화가 약세로 전환하면서 연평균 기준 소폭 상승할 것으로 기대된다. 2019년 국내경제는 수출과 투자가 글로벌 경기 둔화 등의 영향으로 소폭 증가에 그치고, 소비가 전년대비 둔화세를 보이면서 2018년보다 약간 낮은 2.6%의 성장률이 예상된다. 소비는 실질소득 감소와 고용 부진 등이 예상되고, 대외 불확실성으로 인한 체감경기 약화로 증가세가 둔화되나, 보건 복지 고용의 지출 확대, 유류세 인하 등 정부 정책은 실질구매력 제고에 긍정적 요인으로 작용할 전망이다. 설비투자는 대외 불확실성과 대내 구조적 취약성 등의 영향으로 인해 제한적인 증가세가 예상되며, 건설투자도 정부의 부동산시장 안정화 대책과 SOC예산 감축 등의 영향으로 감소세가 이어질 전망이다. 수출은 세계경기의 성장세 둔화로 인해 수출물량이 소폭 증가에 그치고, 반도체의 가격 하락과 국제유가의 횡보 전망 등으로 수출단가도 하락 압력이 커지면서 2018년 보다 낮은 3.7%의 증가율이 예상된다.

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A Study on the Selection of Optimal Candidates for Free Trade Area in Incheon Port using CFPR Method (CFPR 방법을 활용한 인천항 자유무역지역 최적 후보지 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Byung-Hwa;Park, Sung-Hoon;Kim, Hyun-Jin;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.167-176
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    • 2021
  • Incheon Port urgently requires designation of a free trade zone to pursue development linked with the port hinterland while promoting continuous growth of the port. This study aims to evaluate the optimal location and derive policy implications for the designation of a free trade zone and analyzed factors property divided by groups. This study used the Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relation (CFPR) analysis technique to derive a practical construction direction by quantifying and evaluating linguistic measures. As a result, the Incheon New Port hinterland showed the highest location competitiveness among the four candidate areas of Incheon New Port hinterland, Aam Logistics Complex 2, North Port hinterland, and Gyeongin Port hinterland. Among the eight evaluation factors consisting of qualitative and quantitative factors, the Incheon New Port hinterland ranked no. 1 in all the four qualitative factors and one quantitative factor and received the highest total score. Also, Group 1 presented 'possibility to attract tenant companies' as first. Group 2 was 'complex size' and Group 3 was also 'possibility to attract tenant companies'. This study has the implication for suggesting the factors and evaluation structure of Free Trade Zone. Future research requires detailed empirical studies, such as expanding the subject of study or selecting factors that reflect the interests of each group.

The Genetic Relationship of Zelkova Serrata Registered s the Natural Monument Using RAPD Markers (RAPD marker로 추적한 천연기념물로 지정된 느티나무의 유연관계)

  • 강경홍;정영재;김홍남
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.89-94
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    • 1999
  • The genetic polymorphism and relationship among 14 Zelkova serrata registered as the natural monument in Korea were investigated using RAPD markers. N-J tree indicated that individuals in Kangwon-do were clustered and those in Yangam-gun and Damyang-gun of Chollanam-do were done closely. However, all the others were not agreed with the geographical distribution. Maybe this discordance was resulted from their movement by human being than any biological factors. The polymorphic percentages among individuals were from 77.8 to 100. From the high polymorphism, it was supposed that existing natural monuments were independently originated in the ancestors of long differentiated populations.

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희귀식물 갯대추(Paliurus ramosissimus (Lour.) Poiret)의 자생지 분포현황 및 생육상황

  • Kim, Ji-Eun;Kang, Young-Je;Kim, Jin;Byun, Kwang-Ok;Kim, Chan-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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    • 2002.11b
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    • pp.69-69
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    • 2002
  • 갯대추(Paliurus ramosissimus (Lour.) Poiret)는 갈매나무과에 속하는 낙엽관목으로 드물게 교목으로 자라며, 우리나라에서는 제주도에만 분포하는 것으로 알려진 희귀식물이다. 이 종의 주요 분포대는 동아시아의 열대 및 아열대로 제주도는 위도 상 북한계로 알려져 환경부 지정 보호식물 제 39호로 지정\ulcorner보호하고 있으나 자생지에 대한 구체적인 조사가 이루어진 바 없다. 따라서 본 연구는 자생지의 현황과 생육상황을 파악하여 자생지 보전에 기여하고자 실시하였다. 갈매나무과는 세계적으로 58속 900여종이 분포하고, 갈매나무속(Genus Rhamnus), 헛개나무속(Genus Hovenia), 대추속(Genus Zyzyphus) 등이 주요 속으로 알려져 있으며, 그 중 갯대추속(Genus Paliurus)은 과실이 건과이고 날개가 있는 특징으로 다른 속과 구별된다. 꽃은 양성화로 7월~9월에 피고, 화서는 수 개의 꽃이 달리는 취산화서, 열매는 반구형으로 과병에 연한 갈색의 복모가 있으며 얕게 3부분으로 갈라져 각 실마다 편평한 공모양의 종자가 1개씩 들어있다. 갯대추 자생지는 제주도의 동부지역인 북제주군 구좌읍 김녕에 1개소, 남부지역인 남제주군 남원읍 태흥에 1개소, 서부지역인 북제주군 한경면 용당에 1개소, 한경면 용수에 1개소, 한경면 신창에 3개소 및 남제주군 대정읍 일과에 2개소 등 총 6지역 9개소였다. 분포지는 해발 20m이하의 해안가 토심이 얕은 암반 위였으며, 주로 해수의 영향을 직접적으로 받는 곳이었다. 생육상황을 조사한 결과 바다 쪽으로 갈수록 수고가 급격히 낮아지는 경향을 보였으며, 최소 0.3m, 최대 4.5m였고 평균 1.6m 정도였다. 수반종으로는 순비기나무와 갯기름나물, 갯까치수영 등 해안식생의 구성종이 대부분이었으며, 돌가시나무, 상동나무 등도 혼생하는 것으로 조사되었다. 자생지 위협요인으로는 양식장 시설, 도로개발, 해안매립 및 쓰레기 투기 등과 같은 인위적 간섭과 상동나무 등 주변식물의 피압이 주 요인이었다. 한편 갯대추는 희귀식물로서 뿐만 아니라 해류에 의해 전파되는 종으로 알려져 있어 제주도의 식물지리학적 연구에도 좋은 연구대상이 되고 있으므로 종 보전대책 및 자생지 보호에 대한 추가적인 연구가 필요하다.

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A Study on the Busan Port Selection Factor Changes of Shipping Companies in the Post-Corona Era (포스트 코로나 시대 선사들의 부산항 선택요인 변화분석)

  • Sim, Min-Seop;Kim, Joo-Hye;Kim, Yul-Seong;Nam, Hyung-Sik
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.216-226
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    • 2022
  • The industry trends of major global shipping and ports in the world are changing rapidly because of the spread of COVID-19, resulting in the reorganization of GVCs by global companies, and strengthening of environmental regulations by IMO. Based on these environmental changes, Busan Port was ranked 5th in the global container port rankings in 2013. However, since the outbreak of COVID-19, Busan Port's global container port ranking in 2020 fell to 7th, behind Qingdao Port. In the post-Corona era, for Busan Port to compete with global container ports and gain a competitive edge in the port, it is necessary to accurately identify the competitive factors of Busan Port and establish a comprehensive policy. Thus, the purpose of this study was to analyze how the competitive factors of Busan Port have changed in the selection of ports by current global shipping companies, compared to the first study conducted in 2005. Additionally, a comprehensive policy plan was established by identifying factors impacting the frequency of future calls as well as the growth potential of Busan Port, through a stepwise multiple regression analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the call preference and growth potential of Busan Port in the post-Corona era are most affected by 'port facilities'. And it was found that the calls frequency in the future is most impacted by 'the geopolitical location' factor.

Diachronic Network Analysis on Variable Factors for enhancing the Values of Apparel Industry in South Korea -Focused on Fashion Newspaper Articles- (한국 어패럴 산업의 가치 제고를 위한 변수 요인의 통시적 연결구조 분석 -패션 신문 기사를 중심으로-)

  • Kim, Jang-Hyeon;Lee, Ji-Yeon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.551-564
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    • 2020
  • The fashion industry in Korea has grown into a core sector that contributes to the development of national industries, but it has shown negative growth due to the advent of a low-growth era. This study aims to explore core texts related to variable factors affecting the apparel industry in Korea (and the environmental change factors of apparel companies) by using network analysis from a diachronic point of view. In addition, we discuss the implications of enhancing the value of fashion industries in Korea based on articles in fashion newspapers over five years. The conclusion of this study is as follows. First, as a suggestion for political and economic aspects, the government should minimize the damage caused by political influence by presenting new policies, or by communicating about the practical aspects of geopolitical issues and changes linked to the fashion industry. Second, as a suggestion of socio-cultural aspects, it is necessary to reduce uncertainty about the future by establishing a strategic system through cooperation with institutions that can predict future directions. Third, as a suggestion for management changes in the apparel industry, apparel companies in Korea should recognize the importance of consciousness of promoting development for a better society from coexistence, rather than corporate profit.

A Study on Daejeon Metropolitan City Job Creation Strategy by ICT-based Industry - Factors for creating jobs in overseas clusters by organizational ecology approach - (대전시 ICT산업 일자리 창출 전략에 관한 연구 - 해외클러스터 일자리 창출 요인의 조직생태학적 접근 -)

  • Hong, Eun-Young;Yang, Seung-Ho;Sung, Eul-Hyun
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.53-82
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    • 2020
  • Daejeon Metropolitan City has the best innovation capability infrastructure (ICT) required for the 4th industry. Nevertheless, there are scattered factors that hinder the industrial ecosystem. In this study, the factor of job creation was approached from the viewpoint of organizational ecology in consideration of regional characteristics during the 4th Industrial Revolution.That is, the case of job creation through overseas ICT-based clusters (or cities) was examined. Then, the factors of organizational ecology, 'niche', 'variation', 'selection', and 'retention' were derived. Through this process, we explored the environment surrounding Daejeon Metropolitan City and benchmarked lessons from existing overseas cluster cases. As a result, we discover the 'niche' of ICT-based job creation and suggest strategies for the 'variation' process to survive in the ecosystem and how to be 'retention' in the ecosystem. n conclusion, the strategy of the organizational ecological approach to establish itself as a metropolitan city as the strength of Daejeon city and the 'innovation hub' that is evident, such as '4th Industrial Revolution City', 'Innovation City Designation', and 'Secure Excellent Capability of SW' Insist on need. Through this study, we hope that there will be a theoretical contribution to the prior research lacking from original research such as the scarcity of ICT-based job creation research in response to the era of the fourth industrial revolution, recognition of the importance of the region in job creation, and presentation of an organizational ecological approach of sustainable clusters.

Exceptional Characteristics of Cross-border Production Networks in Dandong, North Korea-China Border Region (북중 접경지역 단둥의 대북 생산 네트워크의 예외적 성격)

  • Lee, Sung-Cheol;Kim, Boo-Heon;Chung, Su-Yeul;Kim, Minho;Chi, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.329-352
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    • 2017
  • Since the late 2000s Korean foreign direct investors in North Korea and China border regions have gone through the closure of outward processing trade(OPT) networks and changes in their location due to UN security council resolution and Korean independent sanctions against North Korea's nuclear and missile tests. However, the introduction of new Chinese OPT policy has led to the invigoration of domestic market-based OPT networks towards North Korea. The main aim of this paper is to identify the exceptional characteristics of Dandong in Liaoning province, a North Korea and China border region by analyzing OPT networks towards North Korea. Fundamentally the establishment of OPT networks towards North Korea is likely to be based on the utilization of a plenty of low wages in North Korea. The main reasons for this are fallen into two perspectives: geo-economics and geo-politics. The first perspective is geo-economics centering on the consolidation of economic exchange between North Korea and China, and North Korean economic development. For example, the introduction of Chinese OPT in border region has enabled Chinese local firms based on domestic market to access a plenty of low wage in North Korea in formal and institutional contexts. The second is geo-politics for the stability of North Korean regime based on the means of geo-economics. As the invigoration of domestic market-based OPT networks might make North Korea possible promoting foreign money earning, it enable North Korea to be sustainable as a buffering region between capitalist and socialist regime for China. It shows Chinese geo-strategic attempts to deal with the economic and regime stability of North Korean as a buffering state. In other words, OPT networks in North Korea should be concerned with the discourse practice of geo-economics and geo-politics which might lead to various and contingent spatial economies in border region. As a consequence, North Korea and China border regions could defined as a space in which is applicable to exceptional institutions and policies, and an exploitative space in which create surplus and rents by utilizing a plenty of low wages in North Korea through OPT networks.

Topographical Landscapes and their Controlling Geological Factors in the Cheongryangsan Provincial Park: Lithologic Difference and Faults (청량산 도립공원의 지형경관과 지질학적 지배 요인: 암질차이와 단층)

  • Hwang, Sang Koo;Son, Young Woo;Son, Jin Dam
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.167-181
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    • 2017
  • Cheongryangsan area ($49.51km^2$) has been designated as the Provincial Park in 1982, because it has magnificent aspect and seasonally spectacular landscapes. Especially, Cheongryangsa sitey ($4.09km^2$) has been designated as Noted Scenery No. 23 in 2007, because it has the same topographical landscape as rock cliffs, rock peaks and caves. The most spectacular landscapes are exhibited in the Cheongryangsan Conglomerate and Osipbong Basalt. There are twelve rock peaks on the ridges of the two strata, and many rock cliffs in the several valleys of strata, in which a few caves are formed by differential weathering and erosion. The valleys, in which flow Cheongryang, Bukgok and Cheonae streams, are classified as fault valleys along WNW-ESE faults. The rock cliffs were generated from vertical joints parallel to WNW-ESE faults in the two strata, and the caves were formed by differential weathering and erosion along bedding of sandstones and shales intercalated in the conglomerates. The rock peaks are landscapes formed by differential erosion along crossed vertical joints in the ridges. The vertical joints are developed subparallel to two WNW-ESE faults and a NNE-WWS fault. Therefore the topographical features are caused by existence of the faults and Lithologic difference in the Cheongryangsan Conglomerate and Osipbong Basalt, and by differential weathering and erosion along them.

Topographical Landscapes and their Controlling Geological Factors in the Juwangsan National Park: Welding Facies and Columnar Joints (주왕산 국립공원의 지형경관과 지질학적 지배 요인: 용결상과 주상절리)

  • Hwang, Sang-Koo;Kim, Jae-Ho
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.195-209
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    • 2009
  • Juwangsan area($107.4km^2$) has been designated as the twelfth National Park in 1976, because it has magnificent aspect and seasonally spectacular landscapes. Juwang valley($9,177.5m^2$) has been designated as Noted Scenery No. 11 in 2003, because it has the same topographical landscape as rock domes, rock cliffs, caves, waterfalls and plunge pools. The most spectacular landscapes are exhibited in the densely welded zone of the Juwangsan Tuff. The rock cliffs generated from vertical joints in the densely welded zone, in which there are the same many rock cliffs as Geupsudae, Haksodae, Sinseondae, Mangwoldae, Giam and Byeongpungbawi, three caves such as Juwanggul, Mujanggul and Yeonhwagul in the cliff. The cliffs and caves are landscapes that were generated from vertical joints in the densely welded zone, and the rock domes and waterfalls are landscapes of erosional vertical joint planes in the zone. The vertical joints are columnar joints formed during cooling of the Juwangsan Tuff. Therefore the topographical features cause the cooling columnar joints that are vertically intersected in the densely welded zone of the Juwangsan Tuff.