• Title/Summary/Keyword: 중고차 가격

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A Study on the Prediction Models of Used Car Prices Using Ensemble Model And SHAP Value: Focus on Feature of the Vehicle Type (앙상블 모델과 SHAP Value를 활용한 국내 중고차 가격 예측 모델에 관한 연구: 차종 특성을 중심으로)

  • Seungjun Yim;Joungho Lee;Choonho Ryu
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.27-43
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    • 2024
  • The market share of online platform services in the used car market continues to expand. And The used car online platform service provides service users with specifications of vehicles, accident history, inspection details, detailed options, and prices of used cars. SUV vehicle type's share in the domestic automobile market will be more than 50% in 2023, Sales of Hybrid vehicle type are doubled compared to last year. And these vehicle types are also gaining popularity in the used car market. Prior research has proposed a used car price prediction model by executing a Machine Learning model for all vehicles or vehicles by brand. On the other hand, the popularity of SUV and Hybrid vehicles in the domestic market continues to rise, but It was difficult to find a study that proposed a used car price prediction model for these vehicle type. This study selects a used car price prediction model by vehicle type using vehicle specifications and options for Sedans, SUV, and Hybrid vehicles produced by domestic brands. Accordingly, after selecting feature through the Lasso regression model, which is a feature selection, the ensemble model was sequentially executed with the same sampling, and the best model by vehicle type was selected. As a result, the best model for all models was selected as the CBR model, and the contribution and direction of the features were confirmed by visualizing Tree SHAP Value for the best model for each model. The implications of this study are expected to propose a used car price prediction model by vehicle type to sales officials using online platform services, confirm the attribution and direction of features, and help solve problems caused by asymmetry fo information between them.

A Study on the Prediction Models of Used Car Prices for Domestic Brands Using Machine Learning (머신러닝을 활용한 브랜드별 국내 중고차 가격 예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Seungjun Yim;Joungho Lee;Choonho Ryu
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.105-126
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    • 2023
  • The domestic used car market continues to grow along with the used car online platform service. The used car online platform service discloses vehicle specifications, accident history, inspection history, and detailed options to service consumers. Most of the preceding studies were predictions of used car prices using vehicle specifications and some options for vehicles. As a result of the study, it was confirmed that there was a nonlinear relationship between used car prices and some specification variables. Accordingly, the researchers tried to solve the nonlinear problem by executing a Machine Learning model. In common, the Regression based Machine Learning model had the advantage of knowing the actual influence and direction of variables, but there was a disadvantage of low Cost Function figures compared to the Decision Tree based Machine Learning model. This study attempted to predict used car prices of six domestic brands by utilizing both vehicle specifications and vehicle options. Through this, we tried to collect the advantages of the two types of Machine Learning models. To this end, we sequentially conducted a regression based Machine Learning model and a decision tree based Machine Learning model. As a result of the analysis, the practical influence and direction of each brand variable, and the best tree based Machine Learning model were selected. The implications of this study are as follows. It will help buyers and sellers who use used car online platform services to predict approximate used car prices. And it is hoped that it will help solve the problem caused by information inequality among users of the used car online platform service.

Influential factor analysis of used car price predicting (중고차 가격 예측을 위한 영향요인 분석)

  • Jeong, Jae-hyeon;Kim, Min-Seung;Kim, Jong-min
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.694-696
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    • 2022
  • In this study, in order to predict KIA's K3 used car price, we used car data registered on the K Car site from 2013 to 2021, and the variables used in the correlation analysis are model year, accident presence / absence, and driving. Distance, fuel and exhaust volume were used. Based on this data, we were able to use the Google Colab platform to analyze the correlation and, through the analysis, know if it correlates with the used car price.

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A Convergent Perspective on Preference Attributes by Purchase Channel Choosing Used Cars (중고 자동차 선택시 구매경로별 선호속성에 관한 융합적 시각)

  • Byeon, Hyeonsu
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.215-223
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of the present study is to identify the differences of customer preference in online and offline used car business. Conjoint analysis is used for examining the attributes of used car choices. As a result, the order of importance in real used car market is as follows: brand, design, price, model, mileage. Whereas the order of importance in online used car market is as follows: brand, trust, price, web design, accident. Accordingly, the author suggested that customer preferences depend on the path people are approaching and the attributes of preference vary in online and real stores. For example, trust and accident are important attributes in online market in comparison with real market. Used car market is increasing and becoming important. The authorities and practitioners need to understand used car market and establish the related policies.

겨울철 혹사당한 차를 감싸주자

  • Korea Boiler Engineering Association
    • 보일러설비
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    • no.2 s.145
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    • pp.150-152
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    • 2006
  • 햇살이 차츰 따사로워지면 겨울 내내 소홀히 했던 자동차 점검에 관심을 가져야 한다. 겨울철에는 특별한 이상이 없는 한 점검에 게으른 경향이 있다. 겨울철 차량관리가 혹독한 환경에서 발생될 수 있는 고장이나 사고를 예방하기 위한 차원이라면 봄철관리는 상처입은 부위를 어루만져 주는 개념이다. 추운날씨로 인해 오일류가 변질됐을 가능성이 있는 데다 도로에 뿌린 염화칼슘이 차체에 달라붙어 차의 부식을 급진전시키기 때문이다. 따라서 겨울이 지난 따뜻한 봄날 대청소를 하는 기분으로 차량점검을 꼼꼼히 하자. 중고차 시장에 내놓을 경우 잘 관리한 차가 높은 가격을 받을 수 있다. 물론 철저한 관리가 사고를 예방하는 데 한몫 한다는 것도 잊지 말자.

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Changes in Secondary Education Costs (1990-2004) (중고교의 교육서비스 가격변화에 대한 분석(1990-2004))

  • Kim Sook-Hyang;Yang Nam-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.18 no.2 s.40
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    • pp.47-62
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    • 2006
  • This research was conducted to find out price change of education service. Consumer Price Index annual series data in Korea National Statistical office from 1990 to 2004 were used for analysis. First, education price indexes showed an average annual increase of 7.3% during the last 15 years (1990-2004), marking the highest increase among items in the CPI basket. The average annual increase in tuition fees and other fees, expenditure classes of education price. has been 7.5% and 6.0%, respectively. Secondly, an average increase in tuition fees for two-year college was higher, followed by tuition fees for kindergarten, private four-year college, national four-year college and secondary schools. An average increase in primary school textbook costs was higher in the category of 'other fees' followed by junior high school textbook costs, junior high school supplementary book costs and home delivery supplementary book costs Thirdly, there were no differences in price changes of secondary school textbooks, junior high school supplementary books, high school supplementary books among 16 locations. An average increase in after-school education (selective subjects) for college entrance examination was higher in Gwangju but lower in Seoul, compared with other cities. An average of 7% difference was seen annually among regions. When the year 2000 was considered as 100, the most significant gains were seen in Kwangju at 80% and Gangwon at 57%. An increase in after-school education (all subjects) for college entrance examination was higher in South Cholla Province but lower in North Gyeongsang Province. An increase in after-school education (all subjects) for college entrance examination was higher in South Cholla Province but lower in North Gyeongsang Province. An average of 7% difference was seen annually in the annual increase. When the year 2000 was considered 100, most significant increase was seen in Busan and South Gyeongsang Province at 37% and Jeju Island at 34%.

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A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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MSRP Prediction System Utilizing KERAS and DNN (Keras와 DNN을 이용한 자동차 MSRP 예측 시스템)

  • Kang, Jiwon;Yun, Hyonbin;Lee, Sanghyun;Choi, Hyunho;Moon, Yoo-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2021.01a
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    • pp.355-356
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    • 2021
  • 본 논문에서는 Python 3의 Keras 모듈을 이용하여 특정 자동차에 대한 최적의 판매자권장소비자가격(MSRP)을 예측하는 시스템을 제안한다. 이 시스템은 2004년에 미국에서 시판된 428종류의 자동차에 대한 정보를 제조사, 차종, 생산지, 엔진 크기, 실린더 수, 시내 주행 시 연비, 고속도로 주행 시 연비, 마력, 차체 무게, 차체 길이의 독립변수를 사용하여 자체적으로 딥러닝한 회귀모델을 통해 특정 지표가 주어진 차량에 대해 종속변수인 판매자권장소비자가격을 예측한다. Optimizer를 adam으로, 학습률을 0.005으로 설정한 경우의 검증 MAE 값이 3842.98로 가장 낮게 산출되었고, 해당 모델의 결과는 예측값과 실제값의 오차율이 ±15% 정도 내외로 예측된 표본의 비율이 약 80.14%로 측정되었다. 위 모델은 향후 신차 가격 결정 및 중고차 시장에서 구매, 판매 결정을 돕는 등 특정 시장 내에서 다양한 자동차의 가치를 판단하기에 유용할 것으로 전망된다.

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Study on the Effect of General Manager's Competencies on Canadian Dealership Operations (총괄 관리자의 역량이 캐나다 내 딜러쉽 운영에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jiyoung Park;Minjung Lee
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2024.01a
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    • pp.457-458
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    • 2024
  • 반도체 칩 부족에 따른 신차 생산 중단 및 중고차 가격 급상승, 항구 파업으로 수입 차량 인도 지연 등 예측 불가능한 사회 현상이 빈번히 발생하는 상황에서도 신속히 대응하며 운영해야하는 자동차 딜러쉽의 총괄 관리자 역할은 매우 중요하다. 본 연구는 캐나다 온타리오 주 내 현대자동차 딜러쉽을 대표하는 8명의 지점장들을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였다. AHP 기법을 통해 총괄 관리자에게 가장 중요한 핵심 역량을 파악하였고, 의사 결정, 직원과의 관계, 코칭 및 멘토링 등이 핵심 역량으로 도출되었다. 본 연구 결과는 향후 채용 과정에서 평가 지표로 활용될 수 있고, 현직 총괄 관리자들의 역량 향상을 위한 교육 시스템 구축 및 적용을 통해 딜러쉽의 성공적인 운영과 더 큰 성과 창출에도 도움이 될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

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A study on Operation factors the Used automobile logistics complex using Fuzzy-AHP (Fuzzy-AHP를 활용한 인천항 중고자동차 물류단지 운영 성공요인에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Byung-Hwa;Cha, Young-Doo;Ma, Hye-Min;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.7
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    • pp.97-109
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    • 2017
  • Domestic vehicle penetration rate is growing at 3% per year, but consumers are increasingly buying used cars due to steady price hikes Nevertheless, the used car export market is expected to decline due to import regulations of major countries and the low grade environment of Used car export complex. Therefore, this study using Fuzzy-AHP was aimed to find operational factors of Used car logistics complex and establish a practical management plan of Used car logistic complex in incheon port. Fuzzy-AHP is the method that can be calculated weight of multi-level criteria and change linguistic ambiguity of human to Fuzzy Number. So it's able to propose the realistic decision making alternatives. As a result of the literacture reviews, present study focused on the analysis of the present situation of the logistics of the used car and the activation of the complex, suggested the activation plan and activation of the logistics complex. In the analysis of operational factors, logistic complex cost factors were found to be the most important factors by recording the weighted value of 0.306 in the above factors. The detailed factors were as follows: rent, accessibility, and logistics site size. It is necessary to compute competitive rent for the highly-advanced used car logistics complex, and to realize the rental support policy and to consider designating the free trade zone. In addition, it is necessary to expand the access infrastructure and secure the scale of the company for overseas buyers, and it is necessary to improve the overall government laws and introduce IT system for the future.