• Title/Summary/Keyword: 주택 가격 변동

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Estimating WTP for the reduction of disamenity in the Seoul Metropolitan Area Landfill site using the Hedonic Pricing Model (헤도닉가격모형을 이용한 수도권매립지 유발 비효용(disamenity) 감소에 대한 지불의사액 추정)

  • Kang, Heechan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.335-362
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    • 2020
  • Using the Hedonic pricing model using Box-Cox transformation, this paper estimated the marginal effect (implicit price) of odors from landfill in the metropolitan area on housing prices and the willingness to pay for changes in certain odor conditions. This paper utilized the proximity from the landfill in the metropolitan area as a environmental variable, and analyzed the effect of various housing characteristic variables on the sale price of apartments within a radius of 5 km from the landfill. In particular, because odors factor have various heterogeneity, we applied hedonic price models instead of stated-preference methods with various types of functional forms through Box-Cox transformation, considering the heterogeneity of each region. Estimates show that the marginal value (implicit price) for the distance from the odor source was 0.227 to 0.533 depending on the function type of the estimated model. In addition, when other house factors are the same, the marginal willingness to pay for a distance of 1km from the odor source was calculated to be 16.79 to 51.76 thousand dollar depending on the type of function. Finally for the general Box-Cox model, the annual WTP was estimated to be 3,229dollar.

A Study on the Influence of Macroeconomic Variables of the ADF Test Method Using Public Big Data on the Real Estate Market (공영 빅데이터를 활용한 ADF 검정법의 거시경제 변수가 부동산시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Dae-Sik
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.499-506
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    • 2017
  • Consideration of influential factors through division of capital market sector and interest rate sector to find and resolve the problems in current housing market and leasing market will become an important index to prepare measures for stabilization of housing sales market and housing lease market. Furthermore, a guideline will be provide you with preliminary data using Big Data to prepare for sudden price fluctuation because expected economic crisis, stock market situation, and uncertain future financial crisis can be predicted which may help anticipate real estate price index such as housing sales price index and housing lease price index.

The Empirical Analysis about Structural Characteristics of the Housing Jeonse Price Change in Seoul (서울시 주택전세가격 변동양상에 대한 실증분석)

  • Jung, Yeong-Ki;Kim, Kyung-Hoon;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2012
  • While the housing transaction price of Seoul tends to be stagnant or declining in line with the housing market recession since 2007, the jeonse price keeps continual increase. Such flow of jeonse price change has a serious influence on ordinary person's housing stability seriously. Therefore, it is very meaningful in terms of social policy to analyze the trend of recent jeonse price change. This study aims to have an empirical analysis of structural characteristics of the trend of recent jeonse price change. After the review of various previous studies, this study selected housing jeonse price index, non-sold house quantity, jeonse vs. transaction price rate, and housing construction performance as analytical variables, and employed monthly time series resources from January 2007 to April 2011. As a result, when the housing supply reduced, the potential quantity for jeonse market reduced that occurred unbalance of supply and demand in jeonse market. In turn, it caused the increase of jeonse price. And, in case of jeonse vs. transaction price rate change, the rate increased which means the increase of required rate of return of invested demand. As such, the increase of market risk degenerates the investment sentiment which caused the reduction of quantity for jeonse market as a submarket.

Correlation Analysis Among the Price of Apartments in Seoul, Stock Market and main Economic Indicators (서울지역 아파트가격과 주식시장 및 주요 경제지표와의 상관관계 분석)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il;Lee, Ok-Dong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2014
  • Real estate has been the most preferable investment asset since 1980's has begun. Especially the ups and downs of housing price influence significantly on the household and national economy for a digital economy. In this analysis, monthly movement of apartment price of Seoul and its correlation with KOSPI, construction concerned shares, securities concerned shares, interest rate and exchange rate for 320 months(from January, 1987 to August, 2013) are shown. From the analysis, correlation coefficient of the price of apartment in Seoul and KOSPI is 0.8566 which is highly positive while the price of apartment in Seoul and interest rate are shown strong negative correlation which is -0.7846. The rise of stock market does affect the rise of the price of apartments in Seoul, on the contrary, the price goes down when the interest rate goes up.

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Urban Land Use Change by Accessibility Changes (접근성 변동에 따른 도시토지이용 변화의 시.공간적 분석)

  • Won, Seok-Hwan;Hwang, Chul-Sue
    • Proceedings of the Korean Association of Geographic Inforamtion Studies Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.32-39
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    • 2010
  • 수도권의 도시화 과정은 서울로의 교통 접근성의 변화에 따라 급속하게 확산되었고, 현재도 진행 중이다. 도시화 과정 속에 인구 교외화, 주택 수의 증가, 도심용지 토지이용 증대, 토지가격의 증가 등의 다양한 공간적 변화가 이루어지고 있다. 이러한 급속한 도시화의 과정 속에 국토의 난개발이 이루어졌고 자연생태 파괴, 주택부족 및 교통 문제, 토지 투기 등의 사회적 문제를 야기했다. 본 연구에서는 도시화 현황을 살펴보고 교통접근성의 변화에 따른 주변 토지이용 변화의 상관성을 분석하였다 상관성 분석 결과를 토대로 멀티 에이전트 시스템(MAS)을 이용하여 교통접근성과 토지이용 에이전트 간 상호작용의 관점에서 시뮬레이션 하였다. 그래서 교통접근성의 변화로 인한 주변 토지 이용 변화를 공간적으로 예측하려고 한다. 도시화 현황을 살펴보기 위해서 지적도 자료를 이용하여 미시적인 경관 분석을 실시한 후 교통접근성의 변화에 따른 주변 토지이용 변화의 상관성을 분석하기 위해 교통자료와 토지이용 자료를 GIS분석 및 통계 분석하였다. 그리고 상관성 분석 결과를 멀티 에이전트 시스템 전용 플랫폼에 적용하여 시뮬레이션 분석을 하였다.

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Influence of Housing Market Changes on Construction Company Insolvency (주택시장 변화가 규모별 건설업체 부실화에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Jang, Ho-Myun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.3260-3269
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    • 2014
  • The construction industry has strong ties with other industries, and so construction company insolvency also has a strong influence on other industries. Prediction models addressing the insolvency of construction company have been well studied. Although factors contributing to insolvency must precede those of predictions of insolvency, studies on these contributing factors are limited. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of changes in the housing market on construction company insolvency by using the Vector Error Correction Model. Construction companies were divided into two groups, and the expected default frequency(EDF), which indicates insolvency of each company was measured through the KMV model. The results verified that 10 largest construction companies were in a better financial condition compared to relatively smaller construction companies. As a result of conducting impulse response analysis, the EDF of large companies was found to be more sensitive to housing market change than that of small- and medium-sized construction companies.

Relationship between Stock Market & Housing Market Trends and Liquidity (주식시장과 주택시장의 동향 및 유동성과의 관계)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.133-141
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    • 2021
  • Governments of each country are actively implementing fiscal expansion policies to recover the real economy after Corona 19. In Korea, the stock market and housing market are greatly affected as liquidity in the market increases due to the implementation of disaster subsidies and welfare policies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between stock market and housing market trends and liquidity. Data were collected by the Bank of Korea and Kookmin Bank. The analysis period is from January 2000 to December 2020, and monthly data are used. For empirical analysis, the rate of change from the same month of the previous year was calculated for each variable, and numerical analysis, index analysis, and model analysis were performed. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the stock index showed a positive(+) relationship with the house price, while a negative(-) relationship with M2. Previous studies have suggested that, in general, an increase in liquidity affects the stock market and the housing market, and inflation also rises. In this study, it was found that the stock market and the housing market had an effect on each other. However, it was investigated that liquidity showed an inverse relationship with the stock market and had no relationship with the housing market. Through this, this study estimated that there is a time difference in the relationship between liquidity and the stock market & housing market.

A Study on the Effect of China House Prices on Bank Loan and Management Stability (중국 부동산 가격이 은행대출 및 경영안정성에 미치는 영향)

  • Bae Soo Hyun
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.153-158
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    • 2024
  • Recently, concerns about the spread of credit risk in China's real estate market are gradually increasing. Therefore, it is very meaningful to diagnose the management stability of Chinese commercial banks. This study analyzes the impact of housing prices on the loan proportion and management stability of Chinese commercial banks. In addition, we classify Chinese commercial banks according to size and verify whether there are differences in loan proportion and management stability. If there is a difference by scale, the effect of interaction with housing price changes is also verified. The analysis results are summarized as follows. First, it was found that as the housing price growth rate increases, the proportion of loans from Chinese commercial banks increases. Second, as the rate of increase in housing prices and the proportion of total loans increases, management stability appears to decrease. Third, larger banks were found to have a higher proportion of loans, and smaller banks were found to have greater management stability. The results of this analysis show that Chinese commercial banks' aggressive expansion of their loan proportion is lowering their management stability. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust the loan ratio to the appropriate size level and secure stability with differentiated strategies according to the loan ratio

Asset Prices and Consumption Dynamics in Korea (자산가격변동과 민간소비의 동태적 반응)

  • Kim, Young Il
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.35-73
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines consumption dynamics in relation to asset prices in Korea. Empirical analysis based on the error correction model shows that personal consumption is affected by changes in asset prices but the consumption converges to the long-run level of consumption corresponding to the total income flow in two years. This adjustment in consumption implies that the consumption error, reflected in the error correction term, should have predictability for the future consumption growth during the adjustment period. It is found that the error correction term has a long-run predictability for consumption over up to about 3 years; thus, confirming the error correction model. It is also found that housing prices have larger effects on consumption compared with stock prices in Korea. In addition, the effects of income and asset prices on consumption show bigger effects during contractionary period than expansionary period in business cycles. This paper also analyzes effects of asset wealth that reflects changes in both price and quantity. It is found that asset wealth has a long-run effect on consumption in addition to total income as determinants of consumption. Since wealth effects usually indicate the long-run effect of changes in asset wealth on consumption that is not explained by labor income, which is the proxy for human source of wealth, it is estimated with labor income used as a control variable. According to the estimation, the marginal propencity to consume out of asset wealth is approximately 2%. It means that 1,000won increase in asset wealth may lead to 20 won increase in consumption.

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Geographic Expansion of the Leverage Cycle Theory: Focusing on the Subprime Real Estate Investor in the Depressed Housing Market (레버리지 주기 이론의 지리적 확장: 불황 주택시장의 서브프라임 부동산 투자자를 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hoobin
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.592-609
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    • 2019
  • This study attempts to expand the leverage cycle theory using the subprime real estate investors. The leverage cycle theory has demonstrated asset price fluctuations irrelevant to changes in fundamentals through the restructuring of transaction composition centered on optimistic buyers. However, it needs to understand how this theory works in the depressed housing market with low-income residential regions to explain the geographic origins of the financial crisis. In the depressed housing market, the subprime real estate investors focused on low-income residential regions. Through this spatial focus, the low-income residential regions solely have real estate investor-oriented composition of new purchase transactions in the depressed housing market. The discovery of the subprime real estate investors as new actors lays the foundation for applying the leverage cycle theory to the depressed housing market which has been a underserved area for capital investment. This attempt illustrates how the geographical reinterpretation of an economic theory reestablishes spatio-temporal context of economic phenomena.