• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2009.04a
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• pp.455-475
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• 2009

According to the returns of Housing and business cycle over the period 1992 to 2007, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in Housing properties. First, it isn't a distinct difference from business cycle contrary to U.S. Second, the rise of purchase price in total apartments moves up the consumer price index. According to the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and growth in net operating income (NOI) of apartments, industrial, retail and office properties using panel data for U.S. metropolitan areas over the period 1986 to 2002, it is a measure of the total volatility faced by investors in commercial real estate. To the extent that most of that volatility is difficult to diversify, cross-sectional dispersion may be an appropriate measure of risk.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2023.01a
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• pp.27-29
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• 2023

불안정한 부동산 가격은 지속적인 사회 문제로 거론되고 있는데 이는 부동산 매매 가격을 예측할 수 있는 정확한 지표가 체계적이고 구체적으로 확립되지 않았기 때문이다. 본 논문은 가격변동에 주요하게 영향을 미치는 특성을 파악하여 가격 예측 지표로 활용하기 위해 머신러닝 모델을 적용하여 특성 분석을 수행한다. 이를 위해 한국부동산원에서 제공하는 2021년 10월부터 2022년 9월까지 1년간의 역 주변 500M 이내 거래 데이터 약 30만 6천 개를 어떠한 과정으로 전처리하여 머신러닝 모델에 적용하였는지 기술한다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1361-1369
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• 2014

This research is for analyzing the change rate of housing rent price index produced by KAB (Korea Appraisal Board) in the monthly periodical, Survey on Housing Monthly Rent. The index is a very important and useful indicator to understand and diagnose the house rental market. However, the index is criticized in that it tends to decline when the price level of Jeonse (i.e., a typical type of dwellings in Korea, generally leased on a deposit basis for 1 or 2 years) is highly going up, which is inconsistent with the actual economic sentiment of tenants. We verify the reason why such phenomenon occurs and suggest a simple but novel method to analyze properly the change rate of the index. The main findings are as follows. The key factor to trigger the problem is the use of the conversion rate for Jeonse-to-monthly rent for constructing the rent price indexes. We separate the effect of the conversion rate out of the change rate of the index and quantify the adjusted real change rate showing an increase of the rent price level which is masked by the conversion rate before.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.635-646
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• 2016

This paper proposes a housing business model, where the presale and Chonsei housing are supplied under a presale system at the same time based on the characteristic correlation between the housing presale market and Chonsei market in Korea. Markowitz portfolio theory was used to review the risk diversification effects from the changes in the ratio between the presale housing supply and the Chonsei housing supply. The housing sale price indicator was used as a proxy variable to determine the presale housing supply. The housing Chonsei price indicator was used as a proxy variable to determine the Chonsei housing supply. The proposed housing business model was applied to major areas in Korea to examine the risk diversification effect. Comparisons of the regional portfolio analyses showed that the flexibility of the proposed housing business model can be quite effective because each regional housing market exhibits different characteristics. Market participants, such as developers, construction companies, consumers, and government, can expect various effects through the proposed housing business model. Nevertheless, policy support is necessary for practical applications of the proposed housing business model. In particular, public funds from the government need to be introduced.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.457-469
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• 2010

The government real estate policy has repeatedly relaxed and reinforced controls under the mutually contradictory targets. Switching over the supporting policy after the IMF crisis to the regulating policy from 2003, the government housing policy began to generate ill effects due to various regulations. This stud carefully investigates and statistically tests the transmissions of variations in the housing prices between the metropolitan areas in the early stage of the preceding administration, under the effect of the supporting scheme, and those in the late stage, under the effect of the restricting scheme. The distinctive feature between the two periods is found to be much simplified interrelationships of the price variations in the latter period. Consolidated leading role of capital sphere, by concentrated economic strength, suggest the obvious imbalance between variations in the metropolis housing prices.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.68-79
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• 2008

Because local cities are different from large cities, they need to reflect their own characteristics of housing market. Thus in order to obtain useful implications for the establishing sound housing market in Jinju City, this paper investigated the characteristics of spatial distribution and determinant factors that affect apartment price in Jinju City. GIS representation of the apartments showed that most of old and small apartments were built in 'land readjustment project' areas executed in 1970s. On the contrary, new and large scale apartment complexes were built quite recently and distributed in the western and southern parts of the city. Next, in order to examine the factors which affect apartment price, this paper subtracted firstly several variables from the related studies. However in order to avoid multi-colinearity, variables were summarized by means of factor analysis. Then, setting apartment price as a dependant variable, 12 hedonic price models were established with 33 independent variables. As results, building age, floor area, accessibility to university and hospital, accessibility to arterial road, and stair-type building were turned out to be significant. These results will be used in making the supply and allocation plan of urban facilities and housing. Finally as conclusions this paper emphasized the need of periodic analysis of local housing market and establishing detailed housing information systems.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.13-20
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• 2010

Uncertainty in housing price fluctuation has great impact on the overall economy due to importance of housing market as both place of residence and investment target. Therefore, estimating housing market condition is a highly important task in terms of setting national policy. Primary indicator of the housing market is a ratio between rent and transaction price of housing. The research explores dynamic relationships between Rent-Transaction price ratio, housing transaction price and jeonse rental price, using Vector Autoregressive Model, in order to demonstrate significance of shifting rent-transaction price that is subject to changes in housing transaction and housing rental market. The research applied housing transaction price index and housing rental price index as an indicator to measure transaction and rental price of housing. The price index and data for price ratio was derived from statistical data of the Kookmin Bank. The time-series data contains monthly data ranging between January 1999 and November 2009; the data was log transformed to convert to level variable. The analysis result suggests that the rising ratio between rent-transaction price of housing should be interpreted as a precursor for rise of housing transaction price, rather than judging as a mere indicator of a current trend.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.81-90
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• 2022

With apartment purchase prices rising, small and medium-sized cities have been highlighted as areas in which real estate speculation is overheated, and thus designated as target districts for adjustment. In addition, tax policy is constantly being adjusted in an attempt to stabilize real estate prices. The purpose of this study is to analyze the basic effect of tax policy on the purchase price of apartments in small and medium-sized cities. This study selected apartments in the Daejeon area that were constructed between 1990 and 2015. In addition, tax policy was divided into regulatory policy and easing policy based on tax increase and tax cut. This study analyzes the short-term difference of one year before and after the change in the purchase price of apartment houses. In addition, this study set the time when real estate policy was implemented and the actual transaction price of apartments in Daejeon as the analysis targets, and analyzed the correlation between tax policy and apartment sales prices through the NPV technique and T-test results. Through the study, it was found that most tax policies changed apartment purchase prices in the short term.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.11 no.12
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• pp.199-205
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• 2020

As many government policies have been announced today regarding real estate, especially housing, interest in prices in the housing market has increased significantly. In this study, I would like to present the direction of government policies by analyzing the relationship among income instability, the psychological condition of real estate price changes and willingness to adjust real estate holding ratio. First, major variables were extracted through the prior study review, and using a survey, data were collected and path analysis was conducted. According to the analysis, the current income instability had a negative impact on the psychological condition of real estate price changes, and a positive influence on the willingness to adjust real estate holding ratio, but the psychological condition of real estate price changes did not have a statistically significant impact on the willingness to adjust real estate holding ratio. Thus, the difference analysis was conducted between groups by dividing the ages and the number of dependents respectively. According to the analysis, the impact of income instability and psychological condition of real estate price changes on willingness to adjust real estate holding ratio differed between groups divided by ages and number of dependents. The results of this analysis will help the government to establish real estate policies and help each household to use the analysis as basic data when they make a decision about real estate. On the other hand, this study has limitations that have only been conducted cross-sectional analysis and analyzing time series changes and differences in perception between regions are going to be conducted in a future study.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.93-124
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• 2011

In this paper, we claim the asymmetric response of asset returns on the past asset returns' signs may be explained from the market behavioral portfolio choice of investors. For this, we admit the anchor and adjustment mechanism of investors which partly explains the momentum in the asset prices. We also claim the prospect theory based on the risk aversions may simultaneously work with the anchor and adjustment effect, whenever the lagged asset return was positive and investors accrued the gain. To identify these effects empirically in a threshold autoregressive model, we suppose the risk aversions inducing the volatility effect is related with the past volatility of asset returns. In application of suggested method to Korean stock and real estate markets, we found these effect exist as expected.