• Land and Housing Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.55-75
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• 2023

Based on prior studies on real estate policy, tax policy, and financial policy, this study examined how tax policy and financial policy affected real estate prices using monthly data from January 2014 to December 2021. We performed a VAR model using unit root tests, cointegration tests, as well as conducted impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. The results are as follows. First, the tax regulation index and the financial regulation index had no discernible impact on housing prices. Specifically, a one-sided stabilizing regulatory policy was ineffective and, instead, led to unintended side effects, such as price increases resulting from reduced transaction volume. Secondly, mortgage rates had a negative impact on the housing sale price index. In other words, an increase in interest rates might led to a decrease in housing prices. Thirdly, an increase in the transfer difference, which involves capital gains tax, has a positive effect on housing prices. This led to rising housing prices because the transfer taxes were shifted to buyers, causing them to hesitate to make purchases due to the increased tax burden. Fourthly, both acquisition taxes and mortgage loans had relatively little impact on housing prices.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.15-26
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• 2014

Using multivariate GARCH model, we estimate the relationship between the housing sale prices and lease prices in the Korean housing market. In the analysis of relationship between the rate of changes in sale and lease prices, the correlation coefficient of the apartment and detached house is higher than that of the townhouse. By housing type, the correlation coefficient between detached house and townhouse is higher than between apartment and detached house or apartment and townhouse. By housing size, there are no significant different results between the sales price and the rental price. The correlation coefficient between medium and small size is the highest in the apartment housing market, whereas the correlation coefficient between large and medium size is the highest in the detached housing market, resulting from the fact that people may be more interested in medium- and small-sized apartment and large- and medium-sized detached house. In the detached housing market, the correlation coefficient between large-medium size and medium-small size in the rental price is higher than that of sales price. This result implies that the process of the decision making between purchasing and leasing a house might be different.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.65-76
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• 2014

Housing prices are influenced by external shock factors such as real estate policy or economy. Thus, the intervention effect is important for the development of forecasting model for housing price index. In this paper, we examined the degree of effective power of external shock factors for forecasting housing price index and analyzed time series models for efficient forecasting of housing price index. It is shown that intervention models are better than other models in forecasting results using real data based on the accuracy criteria.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.173
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• pp.24-32
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• 2004

2003년 10.29대책으로 주택가격이 하향세로 돌아섰으며 이후 계속되는 규제들로 주택 시장이 다소 위축되었다. 정부 정책이 수도권과 주택가격 안정에 집중된 결과, 규제를 덜 받는 토지와 개발계획이 발표된 충청권은 계속 가격이 올랐다. 막대한 부동자금이 시중에 존재하고 있는 상황에서 행정수도 이전 등 각종 개발계획들이 국지적 수요를 자극하고 가격상승을 부추기는 중이다. 반면 재건축 제한, 거래신고제, 부동산세 인상 등은 일시적으로 공급과 거래를 위축시키고 있다. 향후 주택시장은 정부정책이 시장 친화적 방향으로 조정되고 지속적인 주택공급이 이루어질 경우 하향 안정세가 계속될 가능성이 높다. 그러나 광일 유동성이 부동산으로 유입되면 상승세로 반전될 가능성이 있으므로 생산적 투자 확대, 장기 금융상품 개발 등으로 유동성을 흡수해야 한다. 정부는 주택시장 연착륙을 위해 정책 일관성을 유지하면서 시장이 제대로 작동될수 있도록 정책의(fine tuning)에 나서야 한다. 특히 재건축 규제를 완화하고 부동산 관련 세금을 경감하는 한편, 지속적인 시장 투명성 제고를 추진할 필요가 있다. 주택업체들은 자발적 구조조정과 기술개발로 승부를 걸어야 한다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.13 no.7
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• pp.432-439
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• 2013

In this study, we evaluate the volatility of housing prices by using literature review and empirical analysis and furthermore we suggest how to improve. In order to diagnose housing market, the KB Bank's House Price Index, Real estate 114;s materials were compared. In addition, to examine the volatility, GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) and EGARCH (Exponential GARCH) model are used. By analysis of this research, we found the volatility of housing price also was reduced in the medium and the large houses since 1998, while the volatility of small housing price relatively was large. We proved that the price change rate of small housing was higher than the medium's. On the order hand, the supply of small apartments fell down sharply. The short-term oriented policy should be avoided, and the efficiency and credibility of policy should be increased. Furthermore, the long-term policy system should be established. and rental market's improvement is necessary for stabilization of housing market.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.193-201
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• 2019

The public's interest regarding multi-household houses, one of the small-scale housings used as profit earning property, has been increasing. Previous studies regarding price, such as the rent and sales price of multi-household houses', however, were difficult to find. Thus, this study set forth to find out what characteristics influence the sales price of multi-household houses so as to provide further suggestions to investors' decision makings and developers' strategy establishments. The data was retrieved from multi-household sales transacted in Changwon City. Through empirical analysis, this paper found that prices were high in Euichang-gu and Seongsan-gu, and meaningful variables in terms of locations were distance from major trade areas(-), distance from main streets(-), and Corner site(+). Meaningful variables related to household characteristics were total floor area(+), Studio type(+), Southern exposure(+), Building age(-), and Full-furnished(+).

• 주택과사람들
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• s.199
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• pp.82-83
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• 2006

‘집값이 미쳤다’라는 말이 나돌 만큼 급등세를 보이던 주택 가격이 정부의 부동산 대책 발표로 안정세를 찾았다. 하지만 이번 대책의 약발이 언제까지 갈 것인지에 대해 부동산 전문가들 사이에 논란이 일고 있다. 11월 아파트 시장을 돌아봤다.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.195
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• pp.12-13
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• 2006

녹음이 우거진 7월, 주택시장은 여름철 비수기를 맞아 거래가 부진한 가운데 약보합세를 보이고 있다. 강남권은 가격 하락세를 보이는 반면 비강남권 인기지역의 집값은 소폭 상승하고 있는 7월 주택시장을 살펴보았다.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.197
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• pp.46-47
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• 2006

지난 9월은 판교 청약 열기와 함께 주택을 구입하려는 매매ㆍ전세 수요가 몰려 집값이 강세를 보였다. 택지지구에 분양하는 아파트의 고분양가 논란 등으로 주변의 집값도 함께 오를 것으로 보여 당분간 주택 가격은 강보합세를 유지할 것으로 예상된다.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.220
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• pp.20-23
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• 2008

지방 미분양 적체 장기화로 주택 건설 어벷의 연쇄 부도설이 확산되고 있는 가운데 최근 거시 경제 여건이 급속하게 악화되면서 주택 시장 붕괴론마저 거론되고 있다. 2007년 상반기 이후 전반적으로 거래 위축이 지속되고 있는 데다 물가와 금리 상승으로 대출 부담 압박이 커지면서 주택 가격 하락에 대한 가능성이 높아지고 있기 때문이다. 현재 주택 시장 상황을 토대로 향후 주택 시장의 향방을 전망해 본다.