• Title/Summary/Keyword: 조정모델

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Option-type Default Forecasting Model of a Firm Incorporating Debt Structure, and Credit Risk (기업의 부채구조를 고려한 옵션형 기업부도예측모형과 신용리스크)

  • Won, Chae-Hwan;Choi, Jae-Gon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.209-237
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    • 2006
  • Since previous default forecasting models for the firms evaluate the probability of default based upon the accounting data from book values, they cannot reflect the changes in markets sensitively and they seem to lack theoretical background. The market-information based models, however, not only make use of market data for the default prediction, but also have strong theoretical background like Black-Scholes (1973) option theory. So, many firms recently use such market based model as KMV to forecast their default probabilities and to manage their credit risks. Korean firms also widely use the KMV model in which default point is defined by liquid debt plus 50% of fixed debt. Since the debt structures between Korean and American firms are significantly different, Korean firms should carefully use KMV model. In this study, we empirically investigate the importance of debt structure. In particular, we find the following facts: First, in Korea, fixed debts are more important than liquid debts in accurate prediction of default. Second, the percentage of fixed debt must be less than 20% when default point is calculated for Korean firms, which is different from the KMV. These facts give Korean firms some valuable implication about default forecasting and management of credit risk.

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A Basic Study on Prediction Module Development of Collision Risk based on Ship's Operator's Consciousness (선박운항자 의식 기반 충돌 위험도 예측 모듈 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Soo;Park, Sang-Won;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2015
  • In ports of Korea, the marine traffic flow is congested due to a large number of vessels coming in and going out. In order to improve the safety and efficiency of these vessels, South Korea is operating with a Vessel Traffic Service System, which is monitoring its waters for 24 hours. However despite these efforts of the VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) officers, collisions are occurring continuously, the risk situation is analyzed that occurs once in about 20 minutes, the risk may be greater. It investigated to reduce these accidents by providing a safety standard for collision danger in a timely manner. Thus, this study has developed a risk prediction module to predict risk in advance. This module can avoid collision risk to adjust the speed and course of ship using a risk evaluation model based on ship operator's risk perspective. Using this module, the ship operators and VTS officers can easily be identified risks in complex traffic situations, so they can take an appropriate action against danger in near future including course and speed change. To verify the effectiveness of this module, this paper predicted the risk of each encounter situation and confirmed to be capable of identifying a risk changes in specific course and speed changes at Busan coastal water.

A Study on Weight of SWOT Factors for Korea Food Service Franchise Entrepreneur (국내 외식프랜차이즈의 창업을 위한 SWOT요인의 중요도에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Chae-Bong;Lee, Sang-Suk
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.141-162
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    • 2017
  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) crisis introduced a system for easy layoffs. With recent economic downturn, employees have been asked to retire early and less new jobs have become available. More small businesses as a result have been started. The purpose of this research is to study weight and ranking on SWOT factors of korea food service franchise industry using the SWOT analysis. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) were used to analyze the SWOT found by the surveys. First, the SWOT analysis shows that the franchise owners and the expert group view the industry positively overall and there are more strengths, opportunities than weaknesses, threats. While there are negatives and threats to the industry overall, many people think that there are more opportunities and positive aspects. Second, the franchise owners rank proven business model and platform (S3) as the strongest strength of food service franchise businesses while the expert group ranks management supports (S2) from headquarters as the strongest strength. Third, the expert group and franchise owner group indicate that the weight on unfair franchise contracts with headquarters(W3) and high penalty from breaking a franchise agreement(W4) are 60% of weaknesses. Fourth, both the expert group and franchise owner group indicate that change in people's lifestyle, value system and consumption pattern(O3) as the most important opportunity. Fifth, both groups indicate that changes in consumption pattern(T1) due to ever changing food service industry as the biggest threat. It is ranked higher than the entry of korea food service franchises.

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Flow Characteristics Analysis of the Decontamination Device with Mixing and Diffusion Using Radio-Isotopes Tracer (방사성 동위원소를 이용한 제염제 혼합확산장치의 유동특성분석)

  • Oh, Daemin;Kang, Sungwon;Kim, Youngsug;Jung, Sunghee;Moon, Jinho;Park, Jangguen
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.282-287
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was predicted the effects of mixing and diffusion due to the operation of the apparatus before the development of the mixed diffusion device for the decontamination absorbent to minimize the influence of contaminant inflow due to radiation accident. The tracer used for the flow characteristics was $^{68}Ga$, $^{99m}Tc$, which is a radioactive isotope, and 2 inch NaI radiation detector was used to detect it. The impeller of the decontamination mixed diffusion system applied to this study was made into three types and the mixing diffusion effect was compared. As a result of analyzing the flow characteristics of the radio-isotope with decontamination mixed diffusion device, mixing, diffusion and flow pattern were obtained. The radial mixing type impeller was able to diffuse to the water surface by the upflow flow, and the fin structure was adjusted for finding optimal conditions. The model 3 type consists of a fin guiding part and an auxiliary fin so that the diffusion speed is higher than that of other types of impellers. It also showed a short time to reach complete mixing.

THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE RELATIVE POSITIONING PRECISION FOR GPS L1 SINGLE FREQUENCY RECEIVER USING THE WEIGHTED SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES (가중 평활화 기법을 이용한 GPS L1 단일 주파수 수신기의 상대 측위 정밀도 향상)

  • Choi, Byung-Kyu;Park, Jong-Uk;Joh, Jeong-Ho;Lim, Hyung-Chul;Park, Phi-Ho
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.371-382
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    • 2004
  • To improve the precision of relative positioning for GPS single frequency(L1) receiver, we accomplished the GPS data processing using the weighted smoothing techniques. The weighted phase smoothing technique is used to minimize the measurement error of pseudorange and position domain smoothing technique is adopted to make the complement of cycle-slip affection. we also considered some component errors like as ionospheric error, which are related with baseline length, and processed for several baselines (5, 10, 30, 40, and 150 km) to check the coverage area of this algorithm. This paper shows that weighted phase smoothing technique give more stable results after using this technique and the position domain smoothing technique can reduce the errors which are sensitive to the observational environment. Based on the results, we could find out that this algorithm is available for post-time and real-time applications and these techniques can be substitution methods which is able to get the high accuracy and precision without resolving the Integer ambiguity.

Impact of Tropospheric Delays on the GPS Positioning with Double-difference Observables (대류권 지연이 이중차분법을 이용한 GPS 측위에 미치는 영향)

  • Hong, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.421-427
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    • 2013
  • In general, it can be assumed that the tropospheric effect are removed through double-differencing technique in short-baseline GPS data processing. This means that the high-accuracy positioning can be obtained because various error sources can be eliminated and the number of unknown can be decreased in the adjustment computation procedure. As a consequence, short-baseline data processing is widely used in the fields such as deformation monitoring which require precise positioning. However, short-baseline data processing is limited to achieve high positioning accuracy when the height difference between the reference and the rover station is significant. In this study, the effects of tropospheric delays on the determination of short-baseline is analyzed, which depends on the orientation of baseline. The GPS measurements which include tropospheric effect and measurement noises are generated by simulation, and then rover coordinates are computed by short-baseline data processing technique. The residuals of rover coordinates are analyzed to interpret the tropospheric effect on the positioning. The results show that the magnitudes of the biases in the coordinate residuals increase as the baseline length gets longer. The increasing rate is computed as 0.07cm per meter in baseline length. Therefore, the tropospheric effects should be carefully considered in short-baseline data processing when the significant height difference between the reference and rover is observed.

A Study of Autonomous Intelligent Load Management System Based on Queueing Model (큐잉모델에 기초한 자율 지능 부하 관리 시스템 연구)

  • Lee, Seung-Chul;Hong, Chang-Ho;Kim, Kyung-Dong;Lee, In-Yong;Park, Chan-Eom
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.134-141
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents an innovative load management technique that can effectively lower the summer peak load by adjusting the aircondition loads through smoothe coordinations between utility companies and large customers. An intelligent hierarchical load management system composed of a Central Intelligent Load Management System(CIMS) and multiple Local Intelligent Management Systems(LIMS) is also proposed to implement the reposed technique. Upon receiving a load curtailment request from the utilities, CIMS issues tokens, which can be used by each LIMS as a right to turn on the airconditioner. CIMS creates and maintains a queue for fair allocation of the tokens among the LIMS demanding tokens. By adjusting the number tokens and queue management Policies, desired load factors can be achieved conveniently. The Markov Birth and Death Process and the Balance Equations are employed in estimating various queue performances. The proposed technique is tested using a summer load data of a large apartment complex and proved to be quite effective in load management while minimizing the customer inconveniences.

Application of Effective Regularization to Gradient-based Seismic Full Waveform Inversion using Selective Smoothing Coefficients (선택적 평활화 계수를 이용한 그래디언트기반 탄성파 완전파형역산의 효과적인 정규화 기법 적용)

  • Park, Yunhui;Pyun, Sukjoon
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.211-216
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    • 2013
  • In general, smoothing filters regularize functions by reducing differences between adjacent values. The smoothing filters, therefore, can regularize inverse solutions and produce more accurate subsurface structure when we apply it to full waveform inversion. If we apply a smoothing filter with a constant coefficient to subsurface image or velocity model, it will make layer interfaces and fault structures vague because it does not consider any information of geologic structures and variations of velocity. In this study, we develop a selective smoothing regularization technique, which adapts smoothing coefficients according to inversion iteration, to solve the weakness of smoothing regularization with a constant coefficient. First, we determine appropriate frequencies and analyze the corresponding wavenumber coverage. Then, we define effective maximum wavenumber as 99 percentile of wavenumber spectrum in order to choose smoothing coefficients which can effectively limit the wavenumber coverage. By adapting the chosen smoothing coefficients according to the iteration, we can implement multi-scale full waveform inversion while inverting multi-frequency components simultaneously. Through the successful inversion example on a salt model with high-contrast velocity structures, we can note that our method effectively regularizes the inverse solution. We also verify that our scheme is applicable to field data through the numerical example to the synthetic data containing random noise.

Seismic Response Analyses of the Structure-Soil System for the Evaluation of the Limits of the Site Coefficients (지반계수의 한계값 평가를 위한 구조물-지반체계에 대한 지진응답해석)

  • Kim, Yong-Seok
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.11 no.1 s.53
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    • pp.67-77
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    • 2007
  • Site coefficients in IBC and KBC codes have some limits to predict the rational seismic responses of a structure, because they take into account only the effect of the soil amplification without the effects of the structure-soil interaction. In this study, upper and lower limits of the site coefficients are estimated through the pseudo 3-D elastic seismic response analyses of structures built on the linear or nonlinear soil layers taking Into account the effects of the structure-soil interaction. Soil characteristics of site classes of A, B and C were assumed to be linear, and those of site classes of D and E were done to be nonlinear and the Ramberg-Osgood model was used to evaluate shear modulus and damping ratio of a soil layer depending on the shear wave velocity of the soil layer, Seismic analyses were performed with 12 weak or moderate earthquake records scaled the peak acceleration to 0.1g or 0.2g and deconvoluted as earthquake records at the bedrock located at 30m deep under the outcrop. With the study results of the elastic seismic response analyses of structures, new standard response spectrum and upper and lower limits of the site coefficients of $F_{a}\;and\;F_{v}$ at the short period range and the period of 1 second are suggested including the effects of the structure-soil interaction, and new site coefficients for the KBC code are also suggested.

Experimental Validation of Isogeometric Optimal Design (아이소-지오메트릭 형상 최적설계의 실험적 검증)

  • Choi, Myung-Jin;Yoon, Min-Ho;Cho, Seonho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.345-352
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, the CAD data for the optimal shape design obtained by isogeometric shape optimization is directly used to fabricate the specimen by using 3D printer for the experimental validation. In a conventional finite element method, the geometric approximation inherent in the mesh leads to the accuracy issue in response analysis and design sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, in the finite element based shape optimization, subsequent communication with CAD description is required in the design optimization process, which results in the loss of optimal design information during the communication. Isogeometric analysis method employs the same NURBS basis functions and control points used in CAD systems, which enables to use exact geometrical properties like normal vector and curvature information in the response analysis and design sensitivity analysis procedure. Also, it vastly simplify the design modification of complex geometries without communicating with the CAD description of geometry during design optimization process. Therefore, the information of optimal design and material volume is exactly reflected to fabricate the specimen for experimental validation. Through the design optimization examples of elasticity problem, it is experimentally shown that the optimal design has higher stiffness than the initial design. Also, the experimental results match very well with the numerical results. Using a non-contact optical 3D deformation measuring system for strain distribution, it is shown that the stress concentration is significantly alleviated in the optimal design compared with the initial design.