• Title/Summary/Keyword: 조건부평균모형

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Estimating Willingness-to-pay for the Ground Water Quality Improvement in Jeju Island Using Contingent Valuation Method (조건부가치측정법을 이용한 제주도 지하수 수질개선에 대한 지불의사액 추정)

  • Jungkyu Park;Chanhee Lee
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.619-644
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic benefit of improving ground water quality in Jeju Island, where groundwater pollution has recently become a social issue and various water quality improvement projects are being promoted. By applying the contingent valuation method, an online survey was conducted on Jeju Island residents to analyze the response data of 542 respondents and estimate the mean willingness to pay using 16 models. The estimation of the double-bounded dichotomous choice model confirmed that each household was willing to pay 28,008 won per year, with the willingness to pay estimated at a minimum of 17,762 won and a maximum of 37,416 won based on different models. The total annual benefit for Jeju Island's ground water quality improvement was estimated to be about 8.66 billion won , and socioeconomic factors influencing willingness-to-pay were investigated. This study is expected to serve as a foundation for the development of environmental improvement policies by assisting in the understanding of Jeju Island's unique water resource environment.

Estimating Economic Values of Parcel Service Attributes (택배 서비스 속성별 경제적 가치 추정)

  • Han, Sang-Yong;Kim, Yong-Mi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.65-75
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    • 2010
  • The objective of this paper is to quantify economic values of parcel service attributes (safety, reliability, quickness, and kindness and customer service) using the contingent choice method and to investigate impact factors (such as sex, age, and education), which influence choice of desirable parcel services. As empirical results, the marginal willingness-to-pay for multiple attributes of parcel service is calculated as about 2,349.6 KRW for the safety attribute, about 829.3 KRW for the reliability attribute, about 588.5 KRW for the quickness attribute, and about 358.8 KRW for the kindness and customer service attribute, according to the estimation model without covariates. The overall results indicate that the safety attribute ranks highest among parcel service attributes, followed by the reliability attribute, quickness attribute, and kindness and customer service attribute. These results can be useful in the decision-making process for establishing desirable pricing policies for parcel service.

Divide and conquer kernel quantile regression for massive dataset (대용량 자료의 분석을 위한 분할정복 커널 분위수 회귀모형)

  • Bang, Sungwan;Kim, Jaeoh
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.569-578
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    • 2020
  • By estimating conditional quantile functions of the response, quantile regression (QR) can provide comprehensive information of the relationship between the response and the predictors. In addition, kernel quantile regression (KQR) estimates a nonlinear conditional quantile function in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces generated by a positive definite kernel function. However, it is infeasible to use the KQR in analysing a massive data due to the limitations of computer primary memory. We propose a divide and conquer based KQR (DC-KQR) method to overcome such a limitation. The proposed DC-KQR divides the entire data into a few subsets, then applies the KQR onto each subsets and derives a final estimator by aggregating all results from subsets. Simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the satisfactory performance of the proposed method.

On multivariate GARCH model selection based on risk management (리스크 관리 측면에서 살펴본 다변량 GARCH 모형 선택)

  • Park, SeRin;Baek, Changryong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1333-1343
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    • 2014
  • Hansen and Lund (2005) documented that a univariate GARCH(1,1) model is no worse than other sophisticated GARCH models in terms of prediction errors such as MSPE and MAE. Here, we extend Hansen and Lund (2005) by considering multivariate GARCH models and incorporating risk management measures such as VaR and fail percentage. Our Monte Carlo simulations study shows that multivariate GARCH(1,1) model also performs well compared to asymmetric GARCH models. However, we suggest that actual model selection should be done with care in light of risk management. It is applied to the realized volatilities of KOSPI, NASDAQ and HANG SENG index for recent 10 years.

Value Evaluation on the Experience Space of the Age-friendly Product (고령친화용품 체험공간에 대한 가치 평가)

  • Oh, Chan Ohk;Joo, Soo Hyun;Jin, Jae Moon;Kim, Soo Young
    • Design Convergence Study
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.17-37
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the value of the center of age-friendly goods to confirm the public value of the center. 152 elderly participants, either who have utilized the center themselves or who have experienced the center indirectly through the image have participated in the study. The experience of age-friendly product center was evaluated by the contingent valuation method, which is widely used in the public services. A double-bounded dichotomous choice (DB-DC) log-logistic model and a log-normal model were conducted. As the result of the estimation, the truncated mean of the log-logistic model was 3,401 Korean won, with the mean of 4,937 won. In addition, the truncated mean of the log-normal model was 3,433 won, with the mean of 4,144 won. Elderly who have not experienced the center placed a higher value on the center, compared to the experienced elderly. The results imply the necessity to enlarge the opportunity for future suppliers to experience the center for age-friendly products, in order to improve their objective understandings. In addition, the necessity of expanding exhibition products and applying age-friendly designs is proposed, to offer various attractive experiences to elderly.

Public Willingness to Pay for the Preservation of Marine Protected Species Zostera marina: A Contingent Valuation Study (해양보호생물인 거머리말의 보전에 대한 대중의 지불의사액 - 조건부 가치측정법의 적용)

  • Choi, Kyung-Ran;Kim, Ju-Hee;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.681-691
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    • 2022
  • Zostera marina (ZM), a type of seagrass registered as a marine protected species in South Korea, provides valuable ecosystem services to humans, such as improving marine water quality, providing food, spawning grounds and habitats for marine life, and absorbing carbon dioxide. Therefore, the government is seeking to preserve ZM by designating ZM-protected areas. This study examined the public willingness to pay (WTP) for the preservation of ZM using contingent valuation. The one-and-one-half-bounded model was adopted for WTP elicitation, and the single-bounded model was also applied for comparison. The spike model was employed to deal with many zero WTP responses. The household average WTP was estimated as KRW 4,087 per year, securing statistical significance. The national value was KRW 84.1 billion per year. The preservation value of ZM estimated in this study can be used as important data for economic analysis of various projects or policy implementation for its preservation.

Analysis of Participation Behavior and Factors of Urban Leisure Activity (도시 여가활동의 참여행태 및 요인분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Hwang;Yun, Dae-Sic;Kim, Kap-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.3 s.74
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    • pp.41-48
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    • 2004
  • This research develops a model of participation and scheduling choice of urban leisure activity. A nested legit model was found to be an appropriate approach. Data collected from Deagu and Pohang City were used for empirical estimation of model parameters. The empirical results confirmed several behavioral aspects associated with participation and scheduling choice of urban leisure activity. The paper presents a discussion on implications that can be inferred from the empirical results. Finally, future potential research question are also discussed.

An Empirical Study on the Stock Price Responses of Asian Emerging Markets to the U.S Stock Price Changes (미국 주가변동에 대한 아시아 신흥시장의 주가반응에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • Cho, Dam;Bauer Jr. Richard J.
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.135-157
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    • 2002
  • 이 논문은 1994년 1월초부터 2001년 6월말까지 미국의 S&P 500지수와 6개 아시아 신흥시장 (한국, 타이완, 홍콩, 싱가폴, 타일랜드, 말레이시아)의 대표적 주가지수의 일간수익률 자료를 이용하여 미국 주식시장으로부터 아시아 신흥시장국가에로의 정보이전 효과를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 조건부변동성을 포함하는 시계열모형을 추정하여 미국 주식시장으로부터의 수익률충격과 변동성충격을 구하였다. 그 결과, 타이완을 제외한 다른 5개국에서 강한 평균이전 효과가 관찰되고 있고, 타일랜드를 제외한 다른 모든 나라에서 (+)의 변동성이전 효과가 관찰되고 있으므로, 대체로 미국 주식시장으로부터 아시아 신흥시장에로의 정보이전 효과가 상당히 강하게 존재한다고 볼 수 있다. 한국의 경우 외환위기 이후 평균이전 효과가 크게 증가하였지만 다른 나라에서는 그렇지 않았다. 또 외환위기 이후 타이완과 홍콩에서는 변동성이전 효과가 감소하였지만, 타일랜드와 말레이시아에서는 (+)값으로 바뀌어 일관성 있는 결과가 관찰되지 않고 있다. 따라서 1997년 아시아지역에서 발생한 외환위기가 정보이전 효과를 촉진하는 계기를 제공하였다고 보기 어렵다.

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The external benefit of combustible waste-to-energy: A contingent valuation study (가연성 폐기물 에너지화의 외부편익 : 조건부 가치측정법의 적용)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Kim, Ho-Young;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.270-282
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    • 2013
  • Combustible waste into energy policy is an effective method to respond to climate change and depletion of fossil fuels. Combustible waste into energy is the process of generating energy in the form of electricity and/or heat from the combustible waste such as vinyl, paper and plastic. This study tries to estimate the external benefit of enhancing the ratio of combustible waste into energy to primary energy from 1.89% to 5% using contingent valuation(CV) method. To this end, we report the results from a CV survey to elicit the willingness to pay (WTP) for combustible waste into energy. A CV survey of 500 households was conducted in the Seoul by using person-to-person interviews. Thus, the procedures of applying and the findings from the one-and-one-half bounded dichotomous choice spike model used to deal with the zero WTP responses are provided in the paper. The results show that the average WTP is estimated to be 2,724 won per household per month and statistically significant at the 5% level. Expanding the value to the Seoul gives us an aggregate value of 13.7 billion won per year.

Estimating Willingness to Pay for the Tap Water Quality Improvement in Busan Using Nonparametric Approach (비모수추정법에 의한 부산시 가정용수 수질개선에 대한 지불의사액 추정)

  • Pyo, Hee-Dong;Park, Cheol-Hyung;Choo, Jae-Wook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2011
  • The paper is to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for residential water quality improvement in Busan, using non-parametric approach. There are several significant advantages of non-parametric approach, compared to parametric methods. That is, no probability distribution assumption is necessary so that there are no needs to assume or test goodness of fit, model specification and heteroscedasticity statistically. For the reliability and the validity of contingent valuation method a survey was conducted for 665 respondents, who were sampled by stratified random sampling method, by personal interview method. The result of mean WTP for residential water quality improvement in Busan was estimated to be 3,190 won to 3,331 won per month per household, while median WTP being 1,750 won. Provided that our sample is broadly representative of the Busan's population, an estimate of the annual aggregated benefit of residential water improvement for all Busan households is approximately 50.2 billion won in case of mean WTP or 27.5 billion won in case of median WTP.