• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.299-299
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• 2022

수문학적 가뭄 발생의 직접적 영향은 강수부족량이나, 다양한 사회경제적 인자들은 수문학적 가뭄에 간접적으로 영향을 미치고 있다. 물관리 선진기관에서는 인간의 활동 및 물관리 방식에 따라 수문학적 가뭄을 심화시키거나 완화시킬 수 있음을 인지하고, 인간의 물사용이 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위한 다양한 연구가 이루어지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 강수량 및 미래의 인구변화에 따른 수문학적 가뭄의 영향의 정도를 판단함으로써, 인간의 활동이 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 제시하고자 한다. 충정북도 시군지역을 대상지역으로 선정하였으며, 시군 장래인구 추정값을 미래 인구자료로, 미래 유출량이 산정되어 제공되는 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5시나리오를 활용하여 미래 가뭄상황 예측하였다. 강수량 및 인구변화가 수문학적 가뭄에 미치는 영향 평가를 위하여 코플라함수 기반의 베이지안 네트워크 모형이 활용하였다. 베이지안 네트워크는 강수량, 인구밀도, 수문학적 가뭄사이의 관계 도출을 위하여 활용되었으며, 베이지안 네트워크 내의 결합확률의 산정을 위하여 코플라 함수가 활용되었다. 미래의 강수량 및 인구밀도의 변화에 따른 수문학적 가뭄의 영향 관계를 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 강수량이 인구밀도보다 수문학적 가뭄의 발생에 영향을 미치며, 약 0.2~0.3 정도 발생확률이 크게 산정되었다. 두 인자를 동시에 고려할 경우, 강수량이 적고, 인구밀도가 높아지는 조건(F(강수량)=0.1, F(인구밀도)=0.9)에서는 조건부 CDF 변화율이 크게 나타나, 곧 수문학적 가뭄의 위험성이 높음을 확인할 수 있었다. 인구밀도는 수문학적 가뭄의 발생 위험성을 높이 알려져 있으나, 정량적으로 그 값을 제시한 연구 사례는 찾기 어렵다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 가뭄의 영향정도를 정량적으로 표현하였으며, 한 인자만의 영향이 아닌 두 개 이상의 인자들의 복합적인 영향 정도를 제시함으로써 수치적인 비교가 가능하게 하였다. 미래 추정 인자가 인구자료가 한정적이라 인구 자료만을 활용하여 수문학적 가뭄에 미치는 영향을 분석하였으나, 다른 사회경제적 지표를 활용하여 미래 변화에 따른 미래 수문학적 가뭄의 영향 정도의 비교 및 분석 결과를 바탕으로 가뭄 대응 우선순위 선정을 위한 연구자료로 활용 가능할 것으로 사료된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.373-373
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• 2022

전세계적으로 기후변화로 인해 3년 이상의 기간동안 지속되는 다년 가뭄의 빈도와 심도가 증가하고 있으며, 이로 인한 피해도 증가하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 이를 반영하여 전국 다목적댐 및 용수댐에서 모두 주요 가뭄 대응 대책으로 사용되고 있는 현행 용수공급 조정기준을 개선하는 방안을 제안하고자 한다. 가장 먼저, 장기 기억 반영이 가능한 시계열 모형인 ARFIMA(Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average) 모델을 사용하여 다양한 강도의 장기 기억을 가지고 있는 연간 유입량을 생성하였다. 이후, 연간 유입량을 k-최근접 이웃 방법 기반의 배분 도구를 사용하여 10일 단위 유입량으로 분배하였으며 이를 대체 용수공급 조정기준을 생성하기 위한 입력 변수로 사용하였다. 새로운 용수공급 조정기준은 매 시점마다 새롭게 업데이트되는 정보를 통해 현행 기준과 함께 적응형으로 저수지 운영에 사용되었다. 다년 가뭄이 반영된 유입량으로 적응형으로 저수지 운영을 관측 유입량 하에서 빈도와 크기의 측면에서 분석을 시행하였다. 그 결과, 심각한 실패(물 부족 비율 30% 이상)의 빈도의 경우 현행 기준 운영 시 6.14%에서 적응형 운영 시행 시 2.99%로 개선되었지만, 전체 기간 동안의 신뢰도는 적응형 운영보다(26.42%) 현행 운영 하에서 더욱 나은 결과를 보였다(41.19%). 위와 같은 분석 결과는 심각한 실패의 빈도와 크기를 줄이는 용수공급 조정기준을 시행하는 원론적인 목적과 일치하기에, 본 연구에서 제안하는 다년 가뭄에 대비한 적응형 운영 방안은 향후 길게 지속되는 가뭄 조건에서 저수지 운영 정책으로 활용될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.33 no.2 s.90
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• pp.109-118
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• 2000

The dynamics of inorganic nutrients and phytoplankton population were examined at eight stations of Shihwa Reservoir, which situated near the cities newly constructed and the industrial complex of West-sea in Korea, from January to December 1999. Among environmental factors, average concentration of $NH_4$, SRP and SRSi were $522.7\;{\mu}g\;N/l$, $9.8\;{\mu}g\;N/l$ and $0.26\;{\mu}g\;Si/l$, respectively. Water quality was extremely deteriorated by a great amount of pollutants load into inner reservoir after the event of rainfall. Nutrients concentration was suddenly decreased toward the lower part. While $NO_3$ concentration did not much varied among stations, but it was relatively high in winter season. Chlorophyll-a concentration was high at the upper part of the reservoir, with average of $37.2\;{\mu}/l$, and closely related to the fluctuation of $NH_4$, SRP and SRSi concentrations. The phytoplankton development in the water column was dominated by diatom (autumn), prasinoid (winter) and dinoflagellate (summer). Dominant phytoplankton were composed to Skeletonema costatum of diatom, Prorocentrum minimum of dinoflagellate, Chroomonas spp. of cryptomonad, Eutreptiella gymnastica of euglenoid and Pyramimonas spp. of prasinoid. The large bloom of phytoplankton at the upper zone of the Shihwa Reservoir after inflow of a seawater were consistently observed. In consequence, water quality management of the inlet stream was assessed to be very important and urgent.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.19-26
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• 2017

Surface air temperature ($T_{air}$) is a key variable for the meteorology and climatology, and is a fundamental factor of the terrestrial ecosystem functions. Satellite remote sensing from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provides an opportunity to monitor the $T_{air}$. However, the several problems such as frequent cloud cover and mountainous region can result in substantial retrieval error and signal loss in MODIS $T_{air}$. In this study, satellite-based $T_{air}$ was estimated under both clear and cloudy sky conditions in Gangwon Province using Aqua MODIS07 temperature profile product (MYD07_L2) and GCOM-W1 Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) brightness temperature ($T_b$) at 37 GHz frequency, and was compared with the measurements from the Automated Mountain Meteorology Stations (AMOS). The application of ambient temperature lapse rate was performed to improve the retrieval accuracy in mountainous region, which showed the improvement of estimation accuracy approximately 4% of RMSE. A simple pixel-wise regression method combining synergetic information from MYD07_L2 $T_{air}$ and AMSR2 $T_b$ was applied to estimate surface $T_{air}$ for all sky conditions. The $T_{air}$ retrievals showed favorable agreement in comparison with AMOS data (r=0.80, RMSE=7.9K), though the underestimation was appeared in winter season. Substantial $T_{air}$ retrievals were estimated 61.4% (n=2,657) for cloudy sky conditions. The results presented in this study indicate that the satellite remote sensing can produce the surface $T_{air}$ at the complex mountainous region for all sky conditions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.12
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• pp.1069-1077
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• 2009

Lately, it is an important concern in water resources research to maintain a stable water supply according to a future climate change and an increase in water use. In Han-River basin, approximately 10 % of water resources that is provided the capital region (Gyeonggi, Seoul etc.) has been reduced as a consequence of the construction of Imnam Dam (storage volume: 27 billion $m^3$) located in the upper Hwacheon Dam upstream area. Therefore, streamflows have decreased in Bukhangang basin, but it could not be evaluated quantitatively. In this study, SWAT-K which is the physically based long-term runoff simulation model, was used in order to evaluate the effect of Imnam Dam on the reduced inflow to Hwacheon Dam according to the change of hydrological condition in the upstream area of Hwacheon Dam. For the model input data of North Korea area, meteorological data of GTS (Global Telecommunication System) were used, and soil maps by FAO/UNESCO (2003) were applied. Temporal variations of water resources is investigated with comparison of observed and simulated inflows at Hawcheon Dam site. Also, annual, monthly, seasonal decreases in water resources were evaluated using the flow duration analysis of simulated streamflows with or without Imnam dam.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.40 no.6
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• pp.599-605
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• 2019

Rice yield (kg 10a^-1) in South Korea was estimated by meteorological variables that are influential factors in crop growth. This study investigated the possibility of anticipating the rice yield variability using a simple but an efficient statistical method, a multiple linear regression analysis, on the basis of the annual variation of meteorological variables. Due to heterogeneous environmental conditions by region, the yearly rice yield was assessed and validated for each province in South Korea. The monthly mean meteorological data for the period 1986-2018 (33 years) from 61 weather stations provided by Korean Meteorological Administration was used as the independent variable in the regression analysis. An 11-fold (leave-three-out) cross-validation was performed to check the accuracy of this method estimating rice yield at each province. This result demonstrated that temporal variation of rice yield by province in South Korea can be properly estimated using such concise procedure in terms of correlation coefficient (0.7, not significant). Furthermore, the estimated rice yield well captured spatial features of observation with mean bias of 0.7 kg 10a^-1 (0.15%). This method may offer useful information on rice yield by province in advance as long as accurate agro-meteorological forecasts are timely obtained from climate models.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.18 no.11
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• pp.740-746
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• 2017

Infrared signatures emitted from hot exhaust gases generated by the internal combustion engine and generator of naval ships and from the metal surfaces of the funnel have become the targets of infrared homing missiles, which is the main cause of a reduced survivability of naval ships. The infrared signatures from the exhaust gas and the metal surface of a funnel can be reduced by installing an infrared signature suppression (IRSS) system on a ship. The IRSS system consists of three parts: an eductor that generates turbulent flow of the exhaust gas, a mixing tube that mixes the exhaust gas with ambient air, and a diffuser that forms an air film using the pressure difference between the inside and outside air. As a basic study to develop an IRSS system using domestic technology, this study analyzed the model test conditions of an IRSS system developed by an overseas engineering company and installed on a domestic naval ship, and a numerical heat-flow analysis was conducted based on the results of the aforementioned analysis. Numerical heat-flow analysis was performed using a commercial numerical-analysis application, and various turbulence models were considered. As a result, the temperature and velocity of the exhaust gas at the educator inlet and diffuser outlet and that of the metal surface of the diffuser were measured, and found to agree well with the measurement results of the model test.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.8
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• pp.17-22
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• 2016

For the self-adaptive equalization of higher-order QAM systems, this paper proposes a new soft decision-directed (SDD) algorithm that opens the eye patterns quickly as well as significantly reducing the error level in the steady-state when it is applied to the initial equalization stage with completely closed eye patterns. The proposed method for M-QAM application minimized the computational complexity of the existing SDD by the symbol estimated based on the two symbols closest to the observation, and greatly simplified the soft decision independently of the QAM order. Furthermore, in the symbol estimating it increased the reliability of the estimates by applying the superior properties of the sigmoid function and avoiding the erroneous estimation of the threshold function. In addition, the initialization performance was improved when an error is generated to update the equalizer, weighting the symbol decision by the threshold function to the error, resulting in an extension of the range of error fluctuations. As a result, the proposed method improves remarkably the computational complexity and the properties of initialization and convergence of the traditional SDD. Through simulations for 64-QAM and 256-QAM under multipath channel conditions with additive noise, the usefulness of the proposed methods was confirmed by comparing the performance of the proposed 2-SDD and two forms of weighted 2-SDD with CMA.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.27-67
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• 2012

This paper analyzed the effect of transaction costs on the prices and trading volumes at the initial stage of emission markets and also examined how the size of the effect differs depending on the characteristics of the transactions. We built trading protocols modeling a recursive process to search the trading partner and make transactions with several behavioral assumptions considering the situations of early markets. The simulations results show that adding transaction costs resulted in reduction of trading volumes. Furthermore, the speed of reduction in trading volume to the increase of transaction costs is higher when there is scale economy. With a certain level of scale economy, the trading volumes abruptly fall down to almost zero as the transaction cost gets over a certain level. This suggests the possibility of a failed market. Since the scale economy is thought to be significant in the early stage of emission trading market, it is desirable to design a trading system that maximizes trading volumes and minimizes unit transaction costs at the outset. One of the alternatives to meet these conditions is to establish a centralized exchange and take measures to increase trading volumes.

• Journal of The Korean Association of Information Education
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.91-102
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• 2018

The purpose of this study was to identify the variables that influence the intention of students to continue participating in SW education. Based on the TAM and reference to existing research on IT introduction, subjective norms, activity promotion conditions, programming related self-efficacy, perceived easy of use, and perceived usefulness were set as factors. We also tried to identify the structural causality between these factors and the intention to continue learning. The samples of this study were 204 elementary students participating in SW education. We collected our data by conducting web survey with these students for 1 month. Among the eight hypotheses set out in this study, the two hypotheses 'subjective norms will have a positive (+) effect on perceived ease of use' and 'perceived ease of use will have a positive (+) effect on Learning continuation intention' were rejected. The characteristics of the results are as follows. First, perceived ease of use indirectly influences learning intention through mediation of perceived usefulness. Second, in order to increase the intention of continuing learning, programming self-efficacy proved to be the most significant factor. The results of this study suggest that the usefulness of SW education and the programming self-efficacy of students should be improved for effective support of elementary school students' SW education.