• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

In this study, labor force projections are made in order to examine the process and magnitude of labor shortage caused by population ageing in Korea. Starting from theoretical review and analysis of population projection data, this study presents that serious transitions of labor market are expected to begin between 2020 and 2030. This study shows even in case of encouraging higher labor participation, labor shortage cannot be offset but only delay and alleviate effects of population ageing. Finally, this study points out some important implications of labor policy including sensitive social and political issues which should be considered.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.285-285
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• 2023

기후변화로 인한 변동성의 증가는 돌발 홍수, 홍수량 증가로 이외에도 강우 사상의 변화, 가뭄의 빈도 및 강도의 증대 등의 문제를 이어질 수 있다. 이러한 기후변화에 대응하기 위하여 기후변화 시나리오를 제시하고 이를 정책적으로 반영할 수 있도록 하고 있다. 기존 IPCC 5차 보고서에 활용한 RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 시나리오에서는 온실가스 농도변화만을 반영하고 있으나, 최근 IPCC 6차 보고서에서는 사회적인 노력과 경제적 구조 등 전반적인 기후정책, 사회 불균형 등을 고려한 SSP(Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 시나리오를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 2가지 기후변화 시나리오의 차이점과 유사점을 강수 중심으로 평가하였다. 기존의 RCP 시나리오에 비하여 극한 강우 사상의 변화를 비교 및 평가하기 위하여 CORDEX-EA에서 제공하는 지역기후모델(Regional Climate Model; RCM) 기반에 시나리오를 수집하여 극한기후지수를 산정하였다. 극한기후사상을 비교하기 위하여 WMO에서 활용하는 ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) 지수 중 강우 관련 지수인 R10mm, RX1day, RX5day, RD95P, RD99P, SDII를 선정하여 시나리오 별로 결과를 비교하여 제시하였다. 또한, 기존의 연대기 기준의 평가방식에서 탈피하여 동일한 기온 상승 시점에 따라 변화를 확인하기 위한 분석절차를 수립하였다. 즉, 1.5℃, 2℃, 3℃ 및 4℃ 상승한 시점의 ETCCDI 지수를 산정하여 극한기후사상을 비교 및 평가하였다.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.212-217
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to analyze the volatility and properties of a time series for tangerine prices in Jeju using the GARCH model of Bollerslev(1986). First, it was found that the time series for the rate of change in tangerine prices had a thicker tail rather than a normal distribution. At a significance level of 1%, the Jarque-Bera statistic led to a rejection of the null hypothesis that the distribution of the time series for the rate of change in tangerine prices is normally distributed. Second, the correlation between the time series was high based on the Ljung-Box Q statistic, which was statistically verified through the ARCH-LM test. Third, the results of the GARCH(1,1) model estimation showed statistically significant results at a significance level of 1%, except for the constant of the mean equation. The persistence parameter value of the variance equation was estimated to be close to 1, which means that there is a high possibility that a similar level of volatility will be present in the future. Finally, it is expected that the results of this study can be used as basic data to optimize the government's tangerine supply and demand control policy.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.13 no.8
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• pp.21-31
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• 2015

The Journal of Digital Policy & Management. This space is for the abstract of your study in English. Recently, advancements in voice recognition technology lead to a new oral cultural era. Text based on new oral cultures, can bring about a cultural revolution. This research is rooted within the humanistic approach, including oral and text. The goal of the research is the humanistic measurements in regards to these cultural issues. Just like the complementary relationship between oral and text for the future. First of all, we will discuss the aspects that have resulted in the change between a text culture to an oral culture. After checking these changes with regards to voice recognition technology, we will be able to discuss the possibilities and problems of this cultural change. We discussed expected outcomes, such as the complementarity of speaking and writing, the expansion from the private culture to the public culture, the possibilities of a simultaneous concurrency. We also discussed the necessity such as a new semiotic approach of the voice and preparation for the expansion of the world of life. Specifically, the necessity for the advancement and control of the Korean culture against the dominance of a global corporation will be explored. In this study, basic research will be undertaken to look at the possibility of the new voice recognition technology and cultural changes, that are expected to be able to be effectively utilized and continue into more detailed research.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.105-115
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• 2013

Increasing the river cross-section by barrage construction causes rises in the average river water levels and discharge rates in the rainy season. The time series patterns for groundwater levels measured at 23 riverside monitoring wells along the lower Nakdong River are compared for two cases: before and after water-filling at the Changnyeong-Haman Barrage. Monthly average groundwater levels indicate a distinct increase in groundwater levels in the upstream riverside close to the barrage. River-water level management by barrage gate control in August, during the rainy season, resulted in a 0.1 m decrease in groundwater levels, while water-filling at the barrage in December caused a 1.3 m increase in groundwater levels. The results of hierarchical cluster analysis indicate that seven groundwater monitoring wells and river water levels were in the same group before barrage construction, but that this number increased to 14 after barrage construction. Principal component analysis revealed that the explanation power of two principal components corresponding to river fluctuation, PC1 and PC2, was approximately 82% before barrage construction but decreased to 45% after construction. This finding indicates that the effect of the river level component that contributes to change in groundwater level, decreases after barrage construction; consequently, other factors, including groundwater pumping, become more important. Continuous surveying and monitoring is essential for understanding change in the hydrological environment. Water policy that takes groundwater-surface water interaction into consideration should be established for riverside areas.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.197-204
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• 2020

The purpose of this paper is to find the direction by analyzing the synchronization phenomenon and the change rate of apartment charter rate in Korea, Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangju and Daejeon. For this purpose, this study used a total of 239 monthly data from January 2000 to November 2019 in Kookmin Bank housing statistics. In the correlation analysis, Korea showed the highest relationship in order of Seoul, Busan, Incheon and Daegu. Seoul showed a low figure of 0.3 without any distinctive features from other cities. On the other hand, Busan, Daejeon and Daegu showed high correlations. As a result of the regression analysis, Korea and 5 major cities were all moving in the same direction with positive(+) values. And Busan and Seoul responded significantly to Korea. In the shock response, Korea is most shocked by the change in Seoul. Daegu is relatively shocked by Busan and Daejeon. Seoul's charter rate has declined most strongly in the last three years. Therefore, it is time to be careful not to incur losses due to gap investment. If we look at the relationship between the charter rate and the sale price in future studies, we can better understand the Korean apartment market.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.663-670
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• 2016

This paper analyzes the asymmetric pass-through effects of crude oil price changes on export prices in Korea's manufacturing sector using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. These pass-through effects are important for Korean companies that are highly dependent on exports. Because the effects differ by industry, eight sectors of the manufacturing industry were examined. The model is effective for separately testing the long-term and short-term differences between the export-price pass-through effects when crude oil prices increase and decrease. The estimation results show that there is positive pass-through to export prices as crude oil prices change, and there are asymmetric effects in some manufacturing sectors. Short-term asymmetries were detected in the export prices of five sectors that include general machinery and transport equipment, and significant long-term asymmetries were found for petroleum and coal products and for textile and leather products. The long-term export price of oil and coal products rose by 0.992% with a 1% increase in the oil price and fell by 0.977% with 1% decrease. Therefore, corporate strategies and government export policies should be established in accordance with these asymmetric pass-through effects.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.1361-1369
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• 2014

This research is for analyzing the change rate of housing rent price index produced by KAB (Korea Appraisal Board) in the monthly periodical, Survey on Housing Monthly Rent. The index is a very important and useful indicator to understand and diagnose the house rental market. However, the index is criticized in that it tends to decline when the price level of Jeonse (i.e., a typical type of dwellings in Korea, generally leased on a deposit basis for 1 or 2 years) is highly going up, which is inconsistent with the actual economic sentiment of tenants. We verify the reason why such phenomenon occurs and suggest a simple but novel method to analyze properly the change rate of the index. The main findings are as follows. The key factor to trigger the problem is the use of the conversion rate for Jeonse-to-monthly rent for constructing the rent price indexes. We separate the effect of the conversion rate out of the change rate of the index and quantify the adjusted real change rate showing an increase of the rent price level which is masked by the conversion rate before.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.10
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• pp.195-202
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to classify national ships into passenger ships, cargo ships, oil tankers, tugboats, barges, and other ships by use, and compare the rate of change and direction respectively. In this study, a total of 123 monthly data were searched from January 2011 to March 2021 in Statistics Korea's KOSIS "Traffic Logistics => Operating Vessel Statistics => Possesion State of National Vessels". To this end, we calculated the rate of change from the previous month for each ship and performed numerical analysis and model analysis. In the correlation analysis, the Total showed a high relationship in the order of Towing, Barge, Oil, Cargo and Ferry. In the regression analysis, each ship was found to be statistically significant and varied independently of each other. The increase rate was highest in the order of Ferry, Oil, Towing, Barge and Cargo during the last analysis period. In the analysis of Scatter Charts, Towing and Barge showed more than a certain level of synchronization with respect to the Total. The synchronization phenomenon for each ships was calculated to be rather low, indicating that the correlation between each ships was low. However, the correlation between Oil and Towing, Oil and Barge and Towing and Barge is relatively high, indicating a relatively large correlation.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.131-137
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• 2021

This study estimated acreage response functions for greenhouse paprika, greenhouse strawberry, open-land garlic, and open-land spinach by using Gyeongsangnamdo agricultural income data. The results show that the cultivation area for greenhouse paprika increased because the agricultural management costs decreased, and the risk of price volatility was relatively low. On the other hand, the cultivation area for greenhouse strawberries decreased due to increasing agricultural management costs and the greater risk of price volatility. In the case of open-land garlic and spinach, the cultivation area remained stagnant due to the greater risk of price volatility, despite increasing agricultural revenue. We derived several policy implications from our results. The risk of price volatility in agricultural products is greater for crops grown on land rather than crops grown in greenhouses. Therefore, the local government needs to adopt the "agricultural revenue guarantee insurance" in preference to crops grown on land rather than crops grown in greenhouses. On the other hand, in the case of greenhouse crops, agricultural management costs are very high. Thus, local government should focus on replacing old facilities and supplying smart-farm facilities that reduce agricultural management costs such as heating costs.