Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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Current Status and Rate of Change of National Ships by each Ship : Focusing on Passenger ships, Cargo ships, Oil Tankers, Towing and Barges

국적선의 각 선박별 현황과 변동률 : 여객선, 화물선, 유조선, 예선, 부선을 중심으로

  • 최수호 (동양미래대학교 경영학부) ;
  • 김신중 (대진대학교 경영학과)
  • Received : 2021.08.20
  • Accepted : 2021.10.20
  • Published : 2021.10.28
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to classify national ships into passenger ships, cargo ships, oil tankers, tugboats, barges, and other ships by use, and compare the rate of change and direction respectively. In this study, a total of 123 monthly data were searched from January 2011 to March 2021 in Statistics Korea's KOSIS "Traffic Logistics => Operating Vessel Statistics => Possesion State of National Vessels". To this end, we calculated the rate of change from the previous month for each ship and performed numerical analysis and model analysis. In the correlation analysis, the Total showed a high relationship in the order of Towing, Barge, Oil, Cargo and Ferry. In the regression analysis, each ship was found to be statistically significant and varied independently of each other. The increase rate was highest in the order of Ferry, Oil, Towing, Barge and Cargo during the last analysis period. In the analysis of Scatter Charts, Towing and Barge showed more than a certain level of synchronization with respect to the Total. The synchronization phenomenon for each ships was calculated to be rather low, indicating that the correlation between each ships was low. However, the correlation between Oil and Towing, Oil and Barge and Towing and Barge is relatively high, indicating a relatively large correlation.

본 연구의 목적은 국적선을 용도별로 여객선, 화물선, 유조선, 예선, 부선, 기타선으로 구분하여 각각 변동률을 살펴보고 방향성을 상호 비교 분석하는데 있다. 본 연구는 통계청 KOSIS "교통물류 => 운항선박통계 => 국적선 보유현황"에서 2011년 1월부터 2021년 3월까지 총 123개 월간자료를 검색하였다. 이를 위해 각 선박별로 전월대비 증감률을 산출하여 상승률과 변동률을 분석하였다. 상관관계분석에서 총합은 예선, 부선, 유조선, 화물선, 여객선 순으로 높은 관계를 보여 주었다. 회귀분석에서 각 선박들은 모두 통계적으로 유의하게 도출되었으며 상호 독립적으로 변동하는 것으로 나타났다. 상승률은 지난 분석기간 동안 여객선, 유조선, 예선, 부선, 화물선 순으로 높게 증가하였다. Scatter Charts 분석에서 총합에 대해 보선과 예선은 일정 수준 이상의 동조화현상을 보여주었다. 각 선박별 동조화현상은 다소 낮게 산출되어 각 선박별 연관성은 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 유조선과 예선, 유조선과 보선, 예선과 보선은 상대적으로 동조화현상이 높아 상대적으로 연관성이 크게 나타나 있다.

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