Development of Predictive Models for Rights Issues Using Financial Analysis Indices and Decision Tree Technique (경영분석지표와 의사결정나무기법을 이용한 유상증자 예측모형 개발)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.18 no.4
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- pp.59-77
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- 2012
This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.
Mobile devices have become an important channel for news content usage in our daily life. However, online news content readers' resistance to online news monetization is more serious than other digital content businesses, such as webtoons, music sources, videos, and games. Since major portal sites distribute online news content free of charge to increase their traffics, customers have been accustomed to free news content; hence this makes online news providers more difficult to switch their policies on business models (i.e., monetization policy). As a result, most online news providers are highly dependent on the advertising business model, which can lead to increasing number of false, exaggerated, or sensational advertisements inside the news website to maximize their advertising revenue. To reduce this advertising dependencies, many online news providers had attempted to switch their 'free' readers to 'paid' users, but most of them failed. However, recently, some online news media have been successfully applying the Pay-What-You-Want (PWYW) payment model, which allows readers to voluntarily pay fees for their favorite news content. These successful cases shed some lights to the managers of online news content provider regarding that the PWYW model can serve as an alternative business model. In this study, therefore, we collected 379 online news articles from Ohmynews.com that has been successfully employing the PWYW model, and analyzed the comparative importance of systematic attributes of online news content on readers' voluntary payment. More specifically, we derived the six systematic attributes (i.e., Type of Article Title, Image Stimulation, Article Readability, Article Type, Dominant Emotion, and Article-Image Similarity) and three or four levels within each attribute based on previous studies. Then, we conducted content analysis to measure five attributes except Article Readability attribute, measured by Flesch readability score. Before conducting main content analysis, the face reliabilities of chosen attributes were measured by three doctoral level researchers with 37 sample articles, and inter-coder reliabilities of the three coders were verified. Then, the main content analysis was conducted for two months from March 2017 with 379 online news articles. All 379 articles were reviewed by the same three coders, and 65 articles that showed inconsistency among coders were excluded before employing conjoint analysis. Finally, we examined the comparative importance of those six systematic attributes (Study 1), and levels within each of the six attributes (Study 2) through conjoint analysis with 314 online news articles. From the results of conjoint analysis, we found that Article Readability, Article-Image Similarity, and Type of Article Title are the most significant factors affecting online news readers' voluntary payment. First, it can be interpreted that if the level of readability of an online news article is in line with the readers' level of readership, the readers will voluntarily pay more. Second, the similarity between the content of the article and the image within it enables the readers to increase the information acceptance and to transmit the message of the article more effectively. Third, readers expect that the article title would reveal the content of the article, and the expectation influences the understanding and satisfaction of the article. Therefore, it is necessary to write an article with an appropriate readability level, and use images and title well matched with the content to make readers voluntarily pay more. We also examined the comparative importance of levels within each attribute in more details. Based on findings of two studies, two major and nine minor propositions are suggested for future empirical research. This study has academic implications in that it is one of the first studies applying both content analysis and conjoint analysis together to examine readers' voluntary payment behavior, rather than their intention to pay. In addition, online news content creators, providers, and managers could find some practical insights from this research in terms of how they should produce news content to make readers voluntarily pay more for their online news content.
With the increasing importance of sentiment analysis to grasp the needs of customers and the public, various types of deep learning models have been actively applied to English texts. In the sentiment analysis of English texts by deep learning, natural language sentences included in training and test datasets are usually converted into sequences of word vectors before being entered into the deep learning models. In this case, word vectors generally refer to vector representations of words obtained through splitting a sentence by space characters. There are several ways to derive word vectors, one of which is Word2Vec used for producing the 300 dimensional Google word vectors from about 100 billion words of Google News data. They have been widely used in the studies of sentiment analysis of reviews from various fields such as restaurants, movies, laptops, cameras, etc. Unlike English, morpheme plays an essential role in sentiment analysis and sentence structure analysis in Korean, which is a typical agglutinative language with developed postpositions and endings. A morpheme can be defined as the smallest meaningful unit of a language, and a word consists of one or more morphemes. For example, for a word '예쁘고', the morphemes are '예쁘(= adjective)' and '고(=connective ending)'. Reflecting the significance of Korean morphemes, it seems reasonable to adopt the morphemes as a basic unit in Korean sentiment analysis. Therefore, in this study, we use 'morpheme vector' as an input to a deep learning model rather than 'word vector' which is mainly used in English text. The morpheme vector refers to a vector representation for the morpheme and can be derived by applying an existent word vector derivation mechanism to the sentences divided into constituent morphemes. By the way, here come some questions as follows. What is the desirable range of POS(Part-Of-Speech) tags when deriving morpheme vectors for improving the classification accuracy of a deep learning model? Is it proper to apply a typical word vector model which primarily relies on the form of words to Korean with a high homonym ratio? Will the text preprocessing such as correcting spelling or spacing errors affect the classification accuracy, especially when drawing morpheme vectors from Korean product reviews with a lot of grammatical mistakes and variations? We seek to find empirical answers to these fundamental issues, which may be encountered first when applying various deep learning models to Korean texts. As a starting point, we summarized these issues as three central research questions as follows. First, which is better effective, to use morpheme vectors from grammatically correct texts of other domain than the analysis target, or to use morpheme vectors from considerably ungrammatical texts of the same domain, as the initial input of a deep learning model? Second, what is an appropriate morpheme vector derivation method for Korean regarding the range of POS tags, homonym, text preprocessing, minimum frequency? Third, can we get a satisfactory level of classification accuracy when applying deep learning to Korean sentiment analysis? As an approach to these research questions, we generate various types of morpheme vectors reflecting the research questions and then compare the classification accuracy through a non-static CNN(Convolutional Neural Network) model taking in the morpheme vectors. As for training and test datasets, Naver Shopping's 17,260 cosmetics product reviews are used. To derive morpheme vectors, we use data from the same domain as the target one and data from other domain; Naver shopping's about 2 million cosmetics product reviews and 520,000 Naver News data arguably corresponding to Google's News data. The six primary sets of morpheme vectors constructed in this study differ in terms of the following three criteria. First, they come from two types of data source; Naver news of high grammatical correctness and Naver shopping's cosmetics product reviews of low grammatical correctness. Second, they are distinguished in the degree of data preprocessing, namely, only splitting sentences or up to additional spelling and spacing corrections after sentence separation. Third, they vary concerning the form of input fed into a word vector model; whether the morphemes themselves are entered into a word vector model or with their POS tags attached. The morpheme vectors further vary depending on the consideration range of POS tags, the minimum frequency of morphemes included, and the random initialization range. All morpheme vectors are derived through CBOW(Continuous Bag-Of-Words) model with the context window 5 and the vector dimension 300. It seems that utilizing the same domain text even with a lower degree of grammatical correctness, performing spelling and spacing corrections as well as sentence splitting, and incorporating morphemes of any POS tags including incomprehensible category lead to the better classification accuracy. The POS tag attachment, which is devised for the high proportion of homonyms in Korean, and the minimum frequency standard for the morpheme to be included seem not to have any definite influence on the classification accuracy.
The fourth industrial revolution represents a revolutionary change in the business environment and its ecosystem, which is a fusion of Information Technology (IT) and other industries. In line with these recent changes, the Ministry of Employment and Labor of South Korea announced 'the Fourth Industrial Revolution Leader Training Program,' which includes five key support areas such as (1) smart manufacturing, (2) Internet of Things (IoT), (3) big data including Artificial Intelligence (AI), (4) information security, and (5) bio innovation. Based on this program, we can get a glimpse of the South Korean government's efforts and willingness to emit leading human resource with advanced IT knowledge in various fusion technology-related and newly emerging industries. On the other hand, in order to nurture excellent IT manpower in preparation for the fourth industrial revolution, the role of educational institutions capable of providing high quality IT education services is most of importance. However, these days, most IT educational institutions have had difficulties in providing customized IT education services that meet the needs of consumers (i.e., learners), without breaking away from the traditional framework of providing supplier-oriented education services. From previous studies, it has been found that the provision of customized education services centered on learners leads to high satisfaction of learners, and that higher satisfaction increases not only task performance and the possibility of business application but also learners' recommendation intention. However, since research has not yet been conducted in a comprehensive way that consider both antecedent and consequent factors of the learner's satisfaction, more empirical research on this is highly desirable. With the advent of the fourth industrial revolution, a rising interest in various convergence technologies utilizing information technology (IT) has brought with the growing realization of the important role played by IT-related education services. However, research on the role of IT education service quality in the context of IT education is relatively scarce in spite of the fact that research on general education service quality and satisfaction has been actively conducted in various contexts. In this study, therefore, the five dimensions of IT education service quality (i.e., tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy) are derived from the context of IT education, based on the SERVPERF model and related previous studies. In addition, the effects of these detailed IT education service quality factors on learners' educational satisfaction and their work application/recommendation intentions are examined. Furthermore, the moderating roles of learner position (i.e., practitioner group vs. manager group) and participation motivation (i.e., voluntary participation vs. involuntary participation) in relationships between IT education service quality factors and learners' educational satisfaction, work application intention, and recommendation intention are also investigated. In an analysis using the structural equation model (SEM) technique based on a questionnaire given to 203 participants of IT education programs in an 'M' IT educational institution in Seoul, South Korea, tangibles, reliability, and assurance were found to have a significant effect on educational satisfaction. This educational satisfaction was found to have a significant effect on both work application intention and recommendation intention. Moreover, it was discovered that learner position and participation motivation have a partial moderating impact on the relationship between IT education service quality factors and educational satisfaction. This study holds academic implications in that it is one of the first studies to apply the SERVPERF model (rather than the SERVQUAL model, which has been widely adopted by prior studies) is to demonstrate the influence of IT education service quality on learners' educational satisfaction, work application intention, and recommendation intention in an IT education environment. The results of this study are expected to provide practical guidance for IT education service providers who wish to enhance learners' educational satisfaction and service management efficiency.
Recommender system has become one of the most important technologies in e-commerce in these days. The ultimate reason to shop online, for many consumers, is to reduce the efforts for information search and purchase. Recommender system is a key technology to serve these needs. Many of the past studies about recommender systems have been devoted to developing and improving recommendation algorithms and collaborative filtering (CF) is known to be the most successful one. Despite its success, however, CF has several shortcomings such as cold-start, sparsity, gray sheep problems. In order to be able to generate recommendations, ordinary CF algorithms require evaluations or preference information directly from users. For new users who do not have any evaluations or preference information, therefore, CF cannot come up with recommendations (Cold-star problem). As the numbers of products and customers increase, the scale of the data increases exponentially and most of the data cells are empty. This sparse dataset makes computation for recommendation extremely hard (Sparsity problem). Since CF is based on the assumption that there are groups of users sharing common preferences or tastes, CF becomes inaccurate if there are many users with rare and unique tastes (Gray sheep problem). This study proposes a new algorithm that utilizes Social Network Analysis (SNA) techniques to resolve the gray sheep problem. We utilize 'degree centrality' in SNA to identify users with unique preferences (gray sheep). Degree centrality in SNA refers to the number of direct links to and from a node. In a network of users who are connected through common preferences or tastes, those with unique tastes have fewer links to other users (nodes) and they are isolated from other users. Therefore, gray sheep can be identified by calculating degree centrality of each node. We divide the dataset into two, gray sheep and others, based on the degree centrality of the users. Then, different similarity measures and recommendation methods are applied to these two datasets. More detail algorithm is as follows: Step 1: Convert the initial data which is a two-mode network (user to item) into an one-mode network (user to user). Step 2: Calculate degree centrality of each node and separate those nodes having degree centrality values lower than the pre-set threshold. The threshold value is determined by simulations such that the accuracy of CF for the remaining dataset is maximized. Step 3: Ordinary CF algorithm is applied to the remaining dataset. Step 4: Since the separated dataset consist of users with unique tastes, an ordinary CF algorithm cannot generate recommendations for them. A 'popular item' method is used to generate recommendations for these users. The F measures of the two datasets are weighted by the numbers of nodes and summed to be used as the final performance metric. In order to test performance improvement by this new algorithm, an empirical study was conducted using a publically available dataset - the MovieLens data by GroupLens research team. We used 100,000 evaluations by 943 users on 1,682 movies. The proposed algorithm was compared with an ordinary CF algorithm utilizing 'Best-N-neighbors' and 'Cosine' similarity method. The empirical results show that F measure was improved about 11% on average when the proposed algorithm was used