• Title/Summary/Keyword: 정량평가방법

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Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

Study on Horizontal and Vertical Temperature Analysis of Cable Fire in Common Duct using Room Corner Experiment (룸코너 실험을 이용한 공동구 케이블 화재 시 수평·수직 방향 온도 분석에 관한 연구)

  • JaeYeop Kim;SeHong Min
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.634-643
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: Underground common duct fires are steadily occurring, and the proportion of property damage is particularly large among property and human casualties caused by fires. Especially, cable fires that occur in common areas can spread vertically quickly and pose a great risk. This paper aims to scientifically analyze the nature of the fire by reproducing the fire through experiments. Method: To analyze the characteristics of cable fires in underground common duct, heat release rate and temperature changes were measured through Room-corner (ISO 9705) test, and the vertical and horizontal propagation of cable fires was quantitatively compared and analyzed. Result: The Room Corner Test (ISO 9705) was used to compare the temperature changes at each data logger point. The results showed that the time it took for the fire to reach the ignition temperature in the horizontal and vertical directions from the center point of the first-tier cable was 589 seconds and 536 seconds, respectively, which means that the vertical fire propagation is 53 seconds faster than the horizontal propagation. This proves that the vertical propagation of fire is relatively faster than the horizontal propagation. The horizontal propagation speed of the fire was also compared for each floor cable tray. The results showed that the third-tier cable propagated at 3.4 times the speed of the second-tier cable, and the second-tier cable propagated at 1.5 times the speed of the first-tier cable. This means that the higher the cable is located, the faster the fire spreads and the larger the fire becomes. Conclusion: This study identified the risks of cable fires and analyzed the risks of vertical fire propagation during cable fires based on the results of the Room Corner Test. Studies to prevent the spread of fire and fire response policies to prevent vertical fire propagation are required. The results of this study are expected to be used to assess the fire risk of common areas and other fires.

Assessment of future hydrological behavior of Soyanggang Dam watershed using SWAT (SWAT 모형을 이용한 소양강댐 유역의 미래 수자원 영향 평가)

  • Park, Min Ji;Shin, Hyung Jin;Park, Geun Ae;Kim, Seong Joon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4B
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    • pp.337-346
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    • 2010
  • Climate change has a huge impact on various parts of the world. This study quantified and analyzed the effects on hydrological behavior caused by climate, vegetation canopy and land use change of Soyanggang dam watershed (2,694.4 $km^2$) using the semi-distributed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool). For the 1997-2006 daily dam inflow data, the model was calibrated with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies between the range of 0.45 and 0.91. For the future climate change projection, three GCMs of MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM, and HadCM3 were used. The A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted. The data was corrected for each bias and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977-2006, baseline period) weather data and 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model). Three periods of data; 2010-2039 (2020s), 2040-2069 (2050s), 2070-2099 (2080s) were prepared for future evaluation. The future annual temperature and precipitation were predicted to change from +2.0 to $+6.3^{\circ}C$ and from -20.4 to 32.3% respectively. Seasonal temperature change increased in all scenarios except for winter period of HadCM3. The precipitation of winter and spring increased while it decreased for summer and fall for all GCMs. Future land use and vegetation canopy condition were predicted by CA-Markov technique and MODIS LAI versus temperature regression respectively. The future hydrological evaluation showed that the annual evapotranspiration increases up to 30.1%, and the groundwater recharge and soil moisture decreases up to 55.4% and 32.4% respectively compared to 2000 condition. Dam inflow was predicted to change from -38.6 to 29.5%. For all scenarios, the fall dam inflow, soil moisture and groundwater recharge were predicted to decrease. The seasonal vapotranspiration was predicted to increase up to 64.2% for all seasons except for HadCM3 winter.

Quantitative Evaluation of Liver Fibrosis on T1 Relaxometry in Comparison with Fibroscan (Fibroscan과 비교를 통한 T1 MR Relaxometry를 이용한 간섬유화의 정량적 평가)

  • Byeong Hak Sim;Suk Hee Heo;Sang Soo Shin;Seong Beom Cho;Yong Yeon Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.81 no.2
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    • pp.365-378
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    • 2020
  • Purpose This study was performed to determine whether the T1 relaxation time of gadoxetic acid-enhanced liver MR imaging is useful for detecting and staging liver fibrosis in patients with chronic liver disease. Materials and Methods One hundred and three patients with suspected focal liver lesion underwent MR imaging and Fibroscan. Fibroscan was chosen as the reference standard for classifying liver fibrosis. T1 relaxation times were acquired before (preT1), 20 minutes after (postT1) contrast administration, and reduction rate of T1 relaxation time (rrT1) on transverse 3D VIBE (volumetric interpolated breath-hold examination) sequence using 3T MR imaging. The optimal cut-off values for the fibrosis staging were determined with ROC analysis. Results PreT1 and postT1 increased and rrT1 decreased constantly with increasing severity of liver fibrosis according to the METAVIR score (F0-F4). There were statistically significant differences between F2 and F3 in preT1 (F2, 836.0 ± 74.7 ms; F3, 888.6 ± 77.5 ms, p < 0.05) and between F3 and F4 in postT1 (F3, 309.0 ± 80.2 ms; F4, 406.6 ± 147.7 ms, p < 0.05) and rrT1 (F3, 65.4 ± 7.7%; F4, 57.3 ± 11.4%, p < 0.05). ROC analysis revealed that combination test (preT1 + postT1) was the best test for predicting liver fibrosis. Conclusion PreT1 and postT1 increased constantly with increasing severity of liver fibrosis. T1 mapping in gadoxetic acid-enhanced liver MR imaging could be a helpful complementary sequence to determine the liver fibrosis stage.

Prediction of Amyloid β-Positivity with both MRI Parameters and Cognitive Function Using Machine Learning (뇌 MRI와 인지기능평가를 이용한 아밀로이드 베타 양성 예측 연구)

  • Hye Jin Park;Ji Young Lee;Jin-Ju Yang;Hee-Jin Kim;Young Seo Kim;Ji Young Kim;Yun Young Choi
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.84 no.3
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    • pp.638-652
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    • 2023
  • Purpose To investigate the MRI markers for the prediction of amyloid β (Aβ)-positivity in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD), and to evaluate the differences in MRI markers between Aβ-positive (Aβ [+]) and -negative groups using the machine learning (ML) method. Materials and Methods This study included 139 patients with MCI and AD who underwent amyloid PET-CT and brain MRI. Patients were divided into Aβ (+) (n = 84) and Aβ-negative (n = 55) groups. Visual analysis was performed with the Fazekas scale of white matter hyperintensity (WMH) and cerebral microbleeds (CMB) scores. The WMH volume and regional brain volume were quantitatively measured. The multivariable logistic regression and ML using support vector machine, and logistic regression were used to identify the best MRI predictors of Aβ-positivity. Results The Fazekas scale of WMH (p = 0.02) and CMB scores (p = 0.04) were higher in Aβ (+). The volumes of hippocampus, entorhinal cortex, and precuneus were smaller in Aβ (+) (p < 0.05). The third ventricle volume was larger in Aβ (+) (p = 0.002). The logistic regression of ML showed a good accuracy (81.1%) with mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and regional brain volumes. Conclusion The application of ML using the MMSE, third ventricle, and hippocampal volume is helpful in predicting Aβ-positivity with a good accuracy.

The Evaluation of Predose Counts in the GFR Test Using $^{99m}Tc$-DTPA ($^{99m}Tc$-DTPA를 이용한 사구체 여과율 측정에서 주사 전선량계수치의 평가)

  • Yeon, Joon-Ho;Lee, Hyuk;Chi, Yong-Ki;Kim, Soo-Yung;Lee, Kyoo-Bok;Seok, Jae-Dong
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.94-100
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: We can evaluate function of kidney by Glomerular Filtration Rate (GFR) test using $^{99m}Tc$-DTPA which is simple. This test is influenced by several parameter such as net syringe count, kidney depth, corrected kidney count, acquisition time and characters of gamma camera. In this study, we evaluated predose count according to matrix size in the GFR test using $^{99m}Tc$-DTPA. Materials and Methods: Gamma camera of Infinia in GE was used, and LEGP collimator, three types of matrix size ($64{\times}64$, $128{\times}128$, $256{\times}256$) and 1.0 of zoom factor were applied. We increased radioactivity concentration from 222 (6), 296 (8), 370 (10), 444 (12) up to 518 MBq (14 mCi) respectively and acquired images according to matrix size at 30 cm distance from detector. Lastly, we evaluated these values and then substituted them for GFR formula. Results: In $64{\times}64$, $128{\times}128$ and $256{\times}256$ of matrix size, counts per second was 26.8, 34.5, 41.5, 49.1 and 55.3 kcps, 25.3, 33.4, 41.0, 48.4 and 54.3 kcps and 25.5, 33.7, 40.8, 48.1 and 54.7 kcps respectively. Total counts for 5 second were 134, 172, 208, 245 and 276 kcounts from $64{\times}64$, 127, 172, 205, 242, 271 kcounts from $128{\times}128$, and 137, 168, 204, 240 and 273 kcounts from $256{\times}256$, and total counts for 60 seconds were 1,503, 1,866, 2,093, 2,280, 2,321 kcounts, 1,511, 1,994, 2,453, 2,890 and 3,244 kcounts, and 1,524, 2,011, 2,439, 2,869 and 3,268 kcounts respectively. It is different from 0 to 30.02 % of percentage difference in $64{\times}64$ of matrix size. But in $128{\times}128$ and $256{\times}256$, it is showed 0.60 and 0.69 % of maximum value each. GFR of percentage difference in $64{\times}64$ represented 6.77% of 222 MBq (6 mCi), 42.89 % of 518 MBq (14 mCi) at 60 seconds respectively. However it is represented 0.60 and 0.63 % each in $128{\times}128$ and $256{\times}256$. Conclusion: There was no big difference in total counts of percentage difference and GFR values acquiring from $128{\times}128$ and $256{\times}256$ of matrix size. But in $64{\times}64$ of matrix size when the total count exceeded 1,500 kcounts, the overflow phenomenon was appeared differently according to predose radioactivity of concentration and acquisition time. Therefore, we must optimize matrix size and net syringe count considering the total count of predose to get accurate GFR results.

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Evaluation of the Positional Uncertainty of a Liver Tumor using 4-Dimensional Computed Tomography and Gated Orthogonal Kilovolt Setup Images (사차원전산화단층촬영과 호흡연동 직각 Kilovolt 준비 영상을 이용한 간 종양의 움직임 분석)

  • Ju, Sang-Gyu;Hong, Chae-Seon;Park, Hee-Chul;Ahn, Jong-Ho;Shin, Eun-Hyuk;Shin, Jung-Suk;Kim, Jin-Sung;Han, Young-Yih;Lim, Do-Hoon;Choi, Doo-Ho
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: In order to evaluate the positional uncertainty of internal organs during radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer, we measured differences in inter- and intra-fractional variation of the tumor position and tidal amplitude using 4-dimentional computed radiograph (DCT) images and gated orthogonal setup kilovolt (KV) images taken on every treatment using the on board imaging (OBI) and real time position management (RPM) system. Materials and Methods: Twenty consecutive patients who underwent 3-dimensional (3D) conformal radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer participated in this study. All patients received a 4DCT simulation with an RT16 scanner and an RPM system. Lipiodol, which was updated near the target volume after transarterial chemoembolization or diaphragm was chosen as a surrogate for the evaluation of the position difference of internal organs. Two reference orthogonal (anterior and lateral) digital reconstructed radiograph (DRR) images were generated using CT image sets of 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases. The maximum tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured from 3D conformal treatment planning. After setting the patient up with laser markings on the skin, orthogonal gated setup images at 50% into the respiratory phase were acquired at each treatment session with OBI and registered on reference DRR images by setting each beam center. Online inter-fractional variation was determined with the surrogate. After adjusting the patient setup error, orthogonal setup images at 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases were obtained and tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured. Measured tidal amplitude was compared with data from 4DCT. For evaluation of intra-fractional variation, an orthogonal gated setup image at 50% into the respiratory phase was promptly acquired after treatment and compared with the same image taken just before treatment. In addition, a statistical analysis for the quantitative evaluation was performed. Results: Medians of inter-fractional variation for twenty patients were 0.00 cm (range, -0.50 to 0.90 cm), 0.00 cm (range, -2.40 to 1.60 cm), and 0.00 cm (range, -1.10 to 0.50 cm) in the X (transaxial), Y (superior-inferior), and Z (anterior-posterior) directions, respectively. Significant inter-fractional variations over 0.5 cm were observed in four patients. Min addition, the median tidal amplitude differences between 4DCTs and the gated orthogonal setup images were -0.05 cm (range, -0.83 to 0.60 cm), -0.15 cm (range, -2.58 to 1.18 cm), and -0.02 cm (range, -1.37 to 0.59 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Large differences of over 1 cm were detected in 3 patients in the Y direction, while differences of more than 0.5 but less than 1 cm were observed in 5 patients in Y and Z directions. Median intra-fractional variation was 0.00 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.40 cm), -0.03 cm (range, -1.14 to 0.50 cm), 0.05 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.50 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Significant intra-fractional variation of over 1 cm was observed in 2 patients in Y direction. Conclusion: Gated setup images provided a clear image quality for the detection of organ motion without a motion artifact. Significant intra- and inter-fractional variation and tidal amplitude differences between 4DCT and gated setup images were detected in some patients during the radiation treatment period, and therefore, should be considered when setting up the target margin. Monitoring of positional uncertainty and its adaptive feedback system can enhance the accuracy of treatments.

The Effect of Recombinant Human Epidermal Growth Factor on Cisplatin and Radiotherapy Induced Oral Mucositis in Mice (마우스에서 Cisplatin과 방사선조사로 유발된 구내염에 대한 재조합 표피성장인자의 효과)

  • Na, Jae-Boem;Kim, Hye-Jung;Chai, Gyu-Young;Lee, Sang-Wook;Lee, Kang-Kyoo;Chang, Ki-Churl;Choi, Byung-Ock;Jang, Hong-Seok;Jeong, Bea-Keon;Kang, Ki-Mun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.242-248
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: To study the effect of recombinant human epidermal growth factor (rhEGF) on oral mucositis induced by cisplatin and radiotherapy in a mouse model. Materials and Methods: Twenty-four ICR mice were divided into three groups-the normal control group, the no rhEGF group (treatment with cisplatin and radiation) and the rhEGF group (treatment with cisplatin, radiation and rhEGF). A model of mucositis induced by cisplatin and radiotherapy was established by injecting mice with cisplatin (10 mg/kg) on day 1 and with radiation exposure (5 Gy/day) to the head and neck on days $1{\sim}5$. rhEGF was administered subcutaneously on days -1 to 0 (1 mg/kg/day) and on days 3 to 5 (1 mg/kg/day). Evaluation included body weight, oral intake, and histology. Results: For the comparison of the change of body weight between the rhEGF group and the no rhEGF group, a statistically significant difference was observed in the rhEGF group for the 5 days after day 3 of. the experiment. The rhEGF group and no rhEGF group had reduced food intake until day 5 of the experiment, and then the mice demonstrated increased food intake after day 13 of the of experiment. When the histological examination was conducted on day 7 after treatment with cisplatin and radiation, the rhEGF group showed a focal cellular reaction in the epidermal layer of the mucosa, while the no rhEGF group did not show inflammation of the oral mucosa. Conclusion: These findings suggest that rhEGF has a potential to reduce the oral mucositis burden in mice after treatment with cisplatin and radiation. The optimal dose, number and timing of the administration of rhEGF require further investigation.

Translocation of Tolclofos-methyl from Ginseng Cultivated Soil to Ginseng (Panax ginseng C. A. Meyer) and Residue Analysis of Various Pesticides in Ginseng and Soil (토양 중 잔류된 Tolclofos-methyl의 인삼(Panax ginseng C. A. Meyer)에 대한 이행 및 잔류 특성)

  • Kim, Ji Yoon;Kim, Hea Na;Saravanan, Manoharan;Heo, Seong Jin;Jeong, Haet Nim;Kim, Jang Eok;Kim, Kwan Rae;Hur, Jang Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Pesticide Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.130-140
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    • 2014
  • Recently, some of the previous studies reported that tolclofos-methyl is still exist in ginseng cultivated soil, even though it is has been banned for ginseng. Therefore, the current study was aimed to examine the levels of absorption and translocation of tolclofos-methyl from ginseng cultivated soil to ginseng root and leaf stem for the period of 1 year. For this study, ginseng plants were transplanted in pots and treated with $5.0mg\;kg^{-1}$ of tolclofos-methyl (50% WP). At the end of each interval periods (every three months) the samples (soil, roots and leaf stems) were collected and analyzed the absorption and translocation levels of tolclofos-methyl using gas chromatography and mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The limit of quantitation of tolclofos-methyl was found to be $0.02mg\;kg^{-1}$ and 70.0~120.0% recovery was obtained with coefficient of variation of less than 10% regardless of sample types. In this study, a considerable amount of translocation of tolclofos-methyl residues were found in soil (4.28 to $0.06mg\;kg^{-1}$), root (7.09 to $1.54mg\;kg^{-1}$) and leaf stem (0.79 to $0.69mg\;kg^{-1}$). The results show that the tolclofos-methyl was absorbted and translocated from ginseng cultivated soil to ginseng root and ginseng leaf stem and found to be decreased time-coursely. Secondly, we were also analyzed soil, root and leaf stems samples from Hongcheon, Cheorwon, Punggi and Geumsan by GC-MS/MS (172 pesticides), LC-MS/MS (74 pesticides). In this study, 43 different pesticides were detected ($0.01{\sim}7.56mg\;kg^{-1}$) in soil, root and leaf stem. Further, tolclofos-methyl was detected 4 times separately in root sample alone which is less ($0.01{\sim}0.05mg\;kg^{-1}$) than their maximum residual limit (MRL) in ginseng. Consequently, the results from both studies indicate the residues of tolclofos-methyl found in ginseng cultivated soil and ginseng ensuring their safety level. Moreover, long-term evaluations are needed in order to protect the soil as well as ginseng free from tolclofos-methyl residues.

Changes in Immunogenicity of Preserved Aortic Allograft (보존된 동종동맥편 조직의 면역성 변화에 관한 연구)

  • 전예지;박영훈;강영선;최희숙;임창영
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.29 no.11
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    • pp.1173-1181
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    • 1996
  • The causes of degenerative changes in allograft cardiac valves are not well known to this day. Today's preserved allografts possess highly viable endothelial cells and degeneration of allografts can be facilitated by immune reaction which may be mediated by these viable cells. To test the antigenicity of endothelial cells, pieces from aortic wall were obtained from fresh and cryo-preserved rat allograft. Timings of sampling were prior to sterilization, after sterilization, after 1, 2, 7, 14 days of fresh preservation and cryopreservation. Endothelial cells were tested by immunohistochemical methods using monoclonal antibodies to MHC class I(MRC OX-18), class II(MRC OX-6) and ICAM-1 antigens. After transplantation of each group of aortic allograft at the subcutaneous layers of rats, population of CD4$^{+}$ T cell and CD8$^{+}$ T cell were analyzed with monoclonal antibodies after 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and 8 weeks. MHC class I expression was 23.95% before preservation and increased to 35.53~48.08% after preservation(p=0.0183). MHC Class II expression was 9.72% before preservation and 10.13~13.39% after preservation(P=0.1599). ICAM-1 expression was 15.02% before preservation and increased to 19.85~35.33% after preservation(P=0.001). The proportion of CD4$^{+}$ T-cell was 42.13% before transplantation. And this was 49.23~36.8% after transplantation in No treat group (p=0.955), decreased to 29.56~32.80% in other group(p=0.0001~0.008). In all the groups, the proportion of CD8$^{+}$ T-cell increased from 25.57% before transplantation to 42.32~58.92% after transplantation(p=0.000l~0.0002). The CD4$^{+}$/CD8$^{+}$ ratio decreased from 1.22~2.28 at first week to 0.47~0.95 at eighth week(p=0.0001). The results revealed that the expression of MHC class I and ICAM-1 in aortic allograft endothelium were increased but that of MHC class II were not changed, despite the different method of preservation. During 8 weeks after transplantation of aortic allograft, the subpopulations of CD4$^{+}$ T cell were not changed or only slightly decreased but those of CD8$^{+}$ T cell were progressively increased.ely increased.

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