• Title/Summary/Keyword: 정량적 분석 모델

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Estimation of freeze damage risk according to developmental stage of fruit flower buds in spring (봄철 과수 꽃눈 발육 수준에 따른 저온해 위험도 산정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Soo-ock;Yun, Eun-jeong;Ju, Okjung;Park, Jong Sun;Shin, Yong Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2019
  • The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.

Future Changes in Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycle under RCP Scenarios (RCP 시나리오에 따른 미래 전지구 육상탄소순환 변화 전망)

  • Lee, Cheol;Boo, Kyung-On;Hong, Jinkyu;Seong, Hyunmin;Heo, Tae-kyung;Seol, Kyung-Hee;Lee, Johan;Cho, ChunHo
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.303-315
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    • 2014
  • Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carbon cycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important for better prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigated by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) that considers vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation for future projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to 2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystem exchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitude in each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmospheric $CO_2$. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At the end of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respiration increase in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement of land $CO_2$ uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onset of growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase of soil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fall since that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia ($90^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$) area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-$21^{st}$ the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are $-2.09PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.47PgC\;yr^{-1}$ and zonal mean NEEs of the same latitude region are $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.55PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.17PgC\;yr^{-1}$ for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.

A STUDY ON THE IONOSPHERE AND THERMOSPHERE INTERACTION BASED ON NCAR-TIEGCM: DEPENDENCE OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD (IMF) ON THE MOMENTUM FORCING IN THE HIGH-LATITUDE LOWER THERMOSPHERE (NCAR-TIEGCM을 이용한 이온권과 열권의 상호작용 연구: 행성간 자기장(IMF)에 따른 고위도 하부 열권의 운동량 강제에 대한 연구)

  • Kwak, Young-Sil;Richmond, Arthur D.;Ahn, Byung-Ho;Won, Young-In
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.147-174
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    • 2005
  • To understand the physical processes that control the high-latitude lower thermospheric dynamics, we quantify the forces that are mainly responsible for maintaining the high-latitude lower thermospheric wind system with the aid of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIEGCM). Momentum forcing is statistically analyzed in magnetic coordinates, and its behavior with respect to the magnitude and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is further examined. By subtracting the values with zero IMF from those with non-zero IMF, we obtained the difference winds and forces in the high-latitude 1ower thermosphere(<180 km). They show a simple structure over the polar cap and auroral regions for positive($B_y$ > 0.8|$\overline{B}_z$ |) or negative($B_y$ < -0.8|$\overline{B}_z$|) IMF-$\overline{B}_y$ conditions, with maximum values appearing around -80$^{\circ}$ magnetic latitude. Difference winds and difference forces for negative and positive $\overline{B}_y$ have an opposite sign and similar strength each other. For positive($B_z$ > 0.3125|$\overline{B}_y$|) or negative($B_z$ < -0.3125|$\overline{B}_y$|) IMF-$\overline{B}_z$ conditions the difference winds and difference forces are noted to subauroral latitudes. Difference winds and difference forces for negative $\overline{B}_z$ have an opposite sign to positive $\overline{B}_z$ condition. Those for negative $\overline{B}_z$ are stronger than those for positive indicating that negative $\overline{B}_z$ has a stronger effect on the winds and momentum forces than does positive $\overline{B}_z$ At higher altitudes(>125 km) the primary forces that determine the variations of tile neutral winds are the pressure gradient, Coriolis and rotational Pedersen ion drag forces; however, at various locations and times significant contributions can be made by the horizontal advection force. On the other hand, at lower altitudes(108-125 km) the pressure gradient, Coriolis and non-rotational Hall ion drag forces determine the variations of the neutral winds. At lower altitudes(<108 km) it tends to generate a geostrophic motion with the balance between the pressure gradient and Coriolis forces. The northward component of IMF By-dependent average momentum forces act more significantly on the neutral motion except for the ion drag. At lower altitudes(108-425 km) for negative IMF-$\overline{B}_y$ condition the ion drag force tends to generate a warm clockwise circulation with downward vertical motion associated with the adiabatic compress heating in the polar cap region. For positive IMF-$\overline{B}_y$ condition it tends to generate a cold anticlockwise circulation with upward vertical motion associated with the adiabatic expansion cooling in the polar cap region. For negative IMF-$\overline{B}_z$ the ion drag force tends to generate a cold anticlockwise circulation with upward vertical motion in the dawn sector. For positive IMF-$\overline{B}_z$ it tends to generate a warm clockwise circulation with downward vertical motion in the dawn sector.

About Short-stacking Effect of Illite-smectite Mixed Layers (일라이트-스멕타이트 혼합층광물의 단범위적층효과에 대한 고찰)

  • Kang, Il-Mo
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2012
  • Illite-smectite mixed layers (I-S) occurring authigenically in diagenetic and hydrothermal environments reacts toward more illite-rich phases as temperature and potassium ion concentration increase. For that reason, I-S is often used as geothermometry and/or geochronometry at the field of hydrocarbons or ore minerals exploration. Generally, I-S shows X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) patterns of ultra-thin lamellar structures, which consist of restricted numbers of sillicate layers (normally, 5 ~ 15 layers) stacked in parallel to a-b planes. This ultra-thinness is known to decrease I-S expandability (%S) rather than theoretically expected one (short-stacking effect). We attempt here to quantify the short stacking effect of I-S using the difference of two types of expandability: one type is a maximum expandability ($%S_{Max}$) of infinite stacks of fundamental particles (physically inseparable smallest units), and the other type is an expandability of finite particle stacks normally measured using X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) ($%S_{XRD}$). Eleven I-S samples from the Geumseongsan volcanic complex, Uiseong, Gyeongbuk, have been analyzed for measuring $%S_{XRD}$ and average coherent scattering thickness (CST) after size separation under 1 ${\mu}m$. Average fundamental particle thickness ($N_f$) and $%S_{Max}$ have been determined from $%S_{XRD}$ and CST using inter-parameter relationships of I-S layer structures. The discrepancy between $%S_{Max}$ and $%S_{XRD}$ (${\Delta}%S$) suggests that the maximum short-stacking effect happens approximately at 20 $%S_{XRD}$, of which point represents I-S layer structures consisting of ca. average 3-layered fundamental particles ($N_f{\approx}3$). As a result of inferring the $%S_{XRD}$ range of each Reichweite using the $%S_{XRD}$ vs. $N_f$ diagram of Kang et al. (2002), we can confirms that the fundamental particle thickness is a determinant factor for I-S Reichweite, and also that the short-stacking effect shifts the $%S_{XRD}$ range of each Reichweite toward smaller $%S_{XRD}$ values than those that can be theoretically prospected using junction probability.

Predicting the Nutritional Value of Seafood Proteins as Measured by Newer In Vitro Model -1. C-PER and DC-PER of Shellfish Proteins- (수산식품단백질 품질평가를 위한 새로운 모델 설정 -1. 패류의 C-PER 및 DC-PER-)

  • Ryu, Hong-Soo;Lee, Kang-Ho;Kim, Jang-Yang;Choi, Byeong-Dae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.265-273
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    • 1985
  • To predict the nutritional quality of seafood proteins using a newer in virto model, 10 species of shellfish protein samples were used in determining the extent of in vitro digestibility, trypsin indigestible substrate (TIS), computed protein efficiency ratio (C-PER), discriminant computed protein efficiency ratio (DC-PER) and predicted digestibility which calculated solely from amino acid profile. The content of TIS in eviscerated samples were ranged from 1.10 to 5.09 mg/g solid, whereas the whole samples were ranged from 1.26 to 7.30 mg/g solid expressed quantitatively as mg of soybean trypsin inhibitor. The in vitro digestibility showed $82{\sim}86%$ for eviscerated samples in contrast with $78{\sim}84%$ for whole ones. Therefore, the results suggested that in vitro digestibility of shellfish was influenced by the present of viscera. The lysine content of Mya arenaria, Saxidomus purpuratus, Anadara subcrenata, and Anadara broughronii were lower than that of ANRC casein, but Corbicula fluminea, Cyclina sinensis, and eviscerated Mytilus edulis, were showed the value about 10.0 g/16g N. In all samples, the content of tryptophan and cystein were more higher than those of ANRC casein. The C-PER of whole samples showed the value below 2.0 while the values above 2.5 noted in the eviscerated samples. DC-PER of most samples were greater than those of C-PER and a greater discrepancies were revealed in whole shellfish which possesses the lower in vitro digestibility. The shellfish sample showed a high in vitro digestibility and a low TIS content such as eviscerated ones may need the DC-PER and predicted digestibility procedures rather than C-PER and four-enzyme in vitro digestibility procedure could offer more advantages in predicting the protein quality of whole shellfish samples which have poor in vitro digestibility and high TIS content.

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Development of Dermal Transduction Epidermal Growth Factor (EGF) Using A Skin Penetrating Functional Peptide (피부투과 기능성 펩타이드를 이용한 경피투과성 상피세포성장인자의 개발)

  • Kang, Jin Sun;La, Ha Na;Bak, Sun Uk;Eom, Hyo Jung;Lee, Byung Kyu;Shin, Hee Je
    • Journal of the Society of Cosmetic Scientists of Korea
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.175-184
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    • 2019
  • The epidermal growth factor (EGF) has a intrinsic function of inducing growth and proliferation of cells through interacting with cell membrane receptors in human epidermis and dermis layer. These functions of EGF are used as a main ingredient for wound healing medicines and anti-aging cosmetics. As a cosmetic ingredient, the EGF has a problem in exhibiting its natural efficacy due to the lack of the ability to penetrate through the stratum corneum, which is known as the skin barrier. In this study, a recombinant human epidermal growth factor ($MTD_{151}-EGF$) fused with the macromolecule transduction domain $(MTD)_{151}$ with the skin penetration ability was developed to improve the skin penetration efficiency of the EGF. Expression of $MTD_{151}-EGF$ was performed in E. coli transformed with a vector encoding the $MTD_{151}-EGF$ gene and then purified. The purified $MTD_{151}-EGF$ was evaluated using cell proliferation assay, cytotoxicity test and skin penetration test by franz diffusion cell assay and artificial skin. Cell proliferation activity of $MTD_{151}-EGF$ purified to high purity of 99% or above was equivalent to the EGF or better, and cytotoxicity was not observed. In addition, the $MTD_{151}-EGF$ showed an excellent penetration efficiency compared to the EGF in the skin penetration test with EGF and $MTD_{151}-EGF$ labeled by FITC in an artificial skin penetration model. Based on the quantitative analysis of the penetrating substance using franz diffusion cell assay, the amount of penetration was about 16 times more than that of EGF. These results can be regarded as an effective alternative to improve the existing physical transdermal penetration method related to the use of various active ingredients for cosmetics.

Metabolic risk and nutritional state according to breakfast energy level of Korean adults: Using the 2007~2009 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (한국 성인의 아침식사 에너지 수준에 따른 대사적 위험과 영양상태: 2007~2009년 국민건강영양조사 자료 이용)

  • Jang, So-Hyoun;Suh, Yoon Suk;Chung, Young-Jin
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.46-57
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine an appropriate energy level of breakfast with less risk of chronic disease for Korean adults. Methods: Using data from the 2007~2009 Korean National Health & Nutrition Examination Survey, from a total of 12,238 adults aged 19~64, the final 7,769 subjects were analyzed except subjects who were undergoing treatment for cancer or metabolic disorder. According to the percent of breakfast energy intake versus their estimated energy requirement (EER), the subjects were divided into four groups: < 10% (very low, VL), 10~20% (low, L), 20~30% (moderate, M), ${\geq}30%$ (sufficient, S). All data were analyzed on the metabolic risk and nutritional state after application of weighted value and adjustment of sex, age, residential area, income, education, job or jobless, and energy intake using a general linear model or logistic regression. Results: The subjects of group S were 16.9% of total subjects, group M 39.2%, group L 37.6%, and group VL 6.3%. The VL group included more male subjects, younger-aged (19 to 40 years), urban residents, higher income, higher education, and fewer breakfasts eaters together with family members. Among the 4 groups, the VL group showed the highest waist circumference, while the S group showed the lowest waist circumference, body mass index, and serum total cholesterol. The groups of VL and L with lower intake of breakfast energy showed high percent of energy from protein and fat, and low percent of energy from carbohydrate. With the increase of breakfast energy level, intake of energy, most nutrients and food groups increased, and the percentage of subjects consuming nutrients below EAR decreased. The VL group showed relatively higher intake of snacks, sugar, meat and eggs, oil, and seasonings, and the lowest intake of vegetable. Risk of obesity by waist circumference was highest in the VL group by 1.90 times of the S group and the same trend was shown in obesity by BMI. Risk of dyslipidemia by serum total cholesterol was 1.84 times higher in the VL group compared to the S group. Risk of diabetes by Glu-FBS (fasting blood sugar) was 1.57 times higher in the VL group compared to the S group. Conclusion: The results indicate that higher breakfast energy level is positively related to lower metabolic risk and more desirable nutritional state in Korean adults. Therefore, breakfast energy intake more than 30% of their own EER would be highly recommended for Korean adults.