• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전진추정

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Determination of Pattern Models using a Convergence of Time-Series Data Conversion Technique for the Prediction of Financial Markets (금융시장 예측을 위한 시계열자료의 변환기법 융합을 이용한 패턴 모델 결정)

  • Jeon, Jin-Ho;Kim, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.237-244
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    • 2015
  • Export-led policies, FTA signed and economics of scale through a variety of market-oriented policies, such as regulations to improve market grew constantly. Accordingly, the correct decision making accurately analyze the economics market for decision, a problem has been an important issue in predicting. For accurate analysis and decision-making of the most common indicators of the stock market by proposing a number of indicators of economic transformation techniques were applied to the convergence model combining estimation and forecasts problem confirmed its effectiveness. Experimental result, gave the model estimation method to apply a transform to show the valid combinations proposed model state estimation result was confirmed in a very similar exercise aspect of the physical problem and the KOSPI index prediction.

Estimation of Variance Component on Swine Economic Traits using Multivariate Maternal Animal Model (다변량 모체효과 모형을 이용한 돼지 경제형질의 분산성분 추정)

  • Park, Jong-Won;Kim, Byeong-Woo;Kim, Si-Dong;Jang, Hyeon-Ki;Jeon, Jin-Tae;Kong, Il-Keun;Lee, Jung-Gyu
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2010
  • This study looked into estimation of variance component over swine's economic traits by multiple animal model and maternal effect model using on-farm test data of total 31,455 swine of Duroc, Landrace and Yorkshire species that were born between 2000 and 2008. Heritability by estimated additive genetic effect showed higher than one by maternal genetic effect using multivariate maternal animal model in each trait examined by each breed and most heritability when considering only additive genetic effect in multiple traits animal model was estimated to be higher than one by estimated additive genetic effect in multivariate maternal animal model. In correlation between breeding value by estimated maternal genetic effect and phenotypic value using multivariate maternal animal model, rank correlation and simple correlation of breeding value and phenotypic value by maternal genetic effect also showed low positive correlation or strong negative correlation, which can be considered that if correlation with phenotype were increased properly considering maternal genetic effect in each trait by each breed, even better improvement could be promoted.

Development of Three-Dimensional Trajectory Model for Detecting Source Region of the Radioactive Materials Released into the Atmosphere (대기 누출 방사성물질 선원 위치 추적을 위한 3차원 궤적모델 개발)

  • Suh, Kyung-Suk;Park, Kihyun;Min, Byung-Il;Kim, Sora;Yang, Byung-Mo
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.41 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2016
  • Background: It is necessary to consider the overall countermeasure for analysis of nuclear activities according to the increase of the nuclear facilities like nuclear power and reprocessing plants in the neighboring countries including China, Taiwan, North Korea, Japan and South Korea. South Korea and comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty organization (CTBTO) are now operating the monitoring instruments to detect radionuclides released into the air. It is important to estimate the origin of radionuclides measured using the detection technology as well as the monitoring analysis in aspects of investigation and security of the nuclear activities in neighboring countries. Materials and methods: A three-dimensional forward/backward trajectory model has been developed to estimate the origin of radionuclides for a covert nuclear activity. The developed trajectory model was composed of forward and backward modules to track the particle positions using finite difference method. Results and discussion: A three-dimensional trajectory model was validated using the measured data at Chernobyl accident. The calculated results showed a good agreement by using the high concentration measurements and the locations where was near a release point. The three-dimensional trajectory model had some uncertainty according to the release time, release height and time interval of the trajectory at each release points. An atmospheric dispersion model called long-range accident dose assessment system (LADAS), based on the fields of regards (FOR) technique, was applied to reduce the uncertainties of the trajectory model and to improve the detective technology for estimating the radioisotopes emission area. Conclusion: The detective technology developed in this study can evaluate in release area and origin for covert nuclear activities based on measured radioisotopes at monitoring stations, and it might play critical tool to improve the ability of the nuclear safety field.

A Deadlock A voidance Method and a Regression-Based Route Selection Scheme for AGV s in Automated Container Terminals (자동화 컨테이너 터미널에서 AGV 교착 방지와 회귀 분석을 이용한 경로 선정 방안)

  • Jun Jin-Pyo;Ryu Kwang-Ryel;Yoon Hang-Mook
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.29 no.8 s.104
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    • pp.723-733
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents a deadlock avoidance method for AGVs in automated container terminals. For a more efficient use of AGV traveling area, we divided the area into small-sized grids not enough to cover a whole AGV. Our deadlock avoidance method controls AGVs by identifying strongly connected components(SCCs) in a graph derived from the paths of AGVs on the grids. Also in this paper we suggest a route selection scheme which selects a route by predicting and comparing travel times of candidate routes by using a regression formula. Simulation experiments have shown that the proposed method can control AGVs for 48 hours without deadlocks and the count of AGV visits per QC is increased by $2\~10$ an hour.

An Experimental Evaluation on Vibration Serviceability of Existing Bridge by Non-contact Vibration Measurement Method (비부착식 진동측정방법에 의한 공용중 교량의 진동사용성에 대한 실험적 평가)

  • Shin, Hyun-Seop;Park, Ki-Tae;Lee, Kyu-Wan;Jun, Jin-Taek
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.254-262
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    • 2010
  • In order to evaluate vibration serviceability by means of non-contact vibration meter, serviceability of existing bridge were experimentally evaluated by using laser vibration meter. Test results were analyzed and compared with evaluation results acquired by using accelerometer and LVDT. To testify accuracy of laser vibration meter measured natural frequency were compared with that acquired by using accelerometer. According to test and comparison results it is showed that serviceability can be evaluated properly enough from the tolerance curve of Reiher-Meister for the estimated acceleration that can be calculated by the numerical differentiation of measured velocity. But because of cumulative numerical error occurred during integration of measured velocity in the time domain serviceability grade could be different from the result acquired by LVDT.

A Study of Economic Indicator Prediction Model using Dimensions Decrease Techniques and HMM (차원감소기법과 은닉마아코프모델을 이용한 경기지표 예측 모델 연구)

  • Jeon, Jin-Ho;Kim, Min-Soo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.10
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    • pp.305-311
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    • 2013
  • The size of the market as the economy continues to evolve, in order to make the right decisions to accurately predict the economic problems the market has emerged as an important issues. To express the modern economic system, the largest of the various economic indicators, pillars stock indicators analysis and decision-making with a proper understanding of the problem for the application of the model is suitable for time-series data concealment HMM. Based on this time series model and the calculation of the time and cost savings dimension decrease techniques for the estimation and prediction of the model was applied to the problem was to verify the validity. As a result, the model predictions in both the short term rather than long-term predictions of the model estimates the optimal predictive value similar pattern very similar to both the actual data and was able to confirm that.

A Study on the Sail Force Prediction Method for Hull Hydrodynamic Force Measurement of 30feet Catamaran Sailing Yacht (30ft급 쌍동형 세일링 요트의 선체 유체력 계측에 의한 세일력 추정방법에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Ho-Yun;Park, Chung-Hwan;Kim, Hyen-Woo;Lee, Byung-Sung;Lee, In-Won
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.477-486
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    • 2010
  • During sailing by wind-driven thrust on the sail, a catamaran sailing yacht generates leeway and heeling. For predicting sail force, a model test was carried out according to running attitude. Through the model test, drag and side force of the real ship was predicted. A purpose of this study is to find sail force to C.E from changed attitude during running direction. By balance of hull and sail, a heeling force of designed sail is predicted. Also through heeling force and driving force, total sail force and direction from C.E are considered with changed mast including leeway and heeling.

Free Surface Suction Force Acting on a Submerged Slender Body Moving Beneath a Free Surface (자유수면 밑을 전진하는 세장체에 작용하는 수면흡입력의 추정)

  • Yoon, Bum-Sang;Trung, Dam Vam
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.688-698
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, the steady lift force acting on a slender body moving beneath regular wave systems of arbitrary wavelengths and directions of propagation is considered. The momentum conservation theorem and the strip method are used to obtain the hydrodynamic forces acting on the body and affecting its motions on the assumption that the body is slender. In order to obtain the vertical steady force acting on it, or the free surface suction force, the second-order hydrodynamic forces caused by mutual interactions between the components of the first-order hydrodynamic forces are averaged over time. The validity of the method is tested by comparison of the calculated results with experimental data and found to be satisfactory. Through some parametric calculations performed for a typical model, some useful results are obtained as to the depth of submergence of the body, wavelengths, directions, etc.

Experimental Study of Solute Transport in the Unsaturated Zone by using TDR (TDR(Time Domain Reflectometry)을 이용한 비포화영역에서 용존오염원의 거동에 관한 실험적 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Hyeon;Seo, Il-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.395-403
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    • 1998
  • 오염원의 이송확산에 관한 많은 연구들이 수행되어 왔으나 특히 비포화 영역에서 오염원 이송확산을 측정하는 것은 매우 어려운 것으로 알려지고 있다. 비포화 토양에서의 오염원 이송확산은 매질의 함수량 변화에 영향을 받기 때문에 오염원 거동특성을 이해하려면 비포화 흐름 분석을 선행한 후 오염원의 이송확산 특성을 분석하여야 한다. 본 연구에서는 비포화 영역에서의 오염원 이송특성을 분석하기 위하여 TDR(Time Domain Reflectometry)을 이용하여 비포화 흐름 및 오염원 이송을 측정하였다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 TDR을 이용하여 오염원 이송을 측정하는 방법을 개발하였으며, 이 방법을 이용하여 1차원의 토양기둥시료에서 비포화 흐름 및 오염원 이송확산에 관한 실험을 수행하고 수치모형을 적용함으로써 비포화 영역에서 오염원의 이송확산에 관한 거동특성을 규명하였다. 본 연구에서는 두 종류의 국내 토양시료(SUS, KUS)를 사용하였는데, 토양의 물리적 특성을 예비실험을 통하여 규명한 후 토양기둥시료를 이용한 본실험을 수행하였다. 비포화 천이흐름하의 오염원 이송확산 실험에서는 급격한 습윤전선의 전진에 따른 종형의 함수량변화를 관측할 수 있었고, 이때 오염원의 농도는 함수량의 천이구간의 중심점으로부터 전방영역의 농도분포가 습윤전선에서의 함수량 분포와 유사한 종형을 이루고 있음을 관측할 수 있었다. 비포화 정상흐름하의 오염원 이송확산 실험에서는 오염원이 이송하며 농도 천이구간이 확장되어지는 전형적인 형태를 보였다. 또한 예비실험에서 측정한 매개변수를 입력자료로하여 수행한 수치결과와 실험결과를 비교하였는데 비포화 흐름특성은 실험결과와 수치결과가 정량적으로 일치하는 경향을 보였으나, 오염원 이송확산 특성은 정량적으로 수치결과가 실험결과보다 더 많이 확산되는 경향을 보였다. 따라서 수치모형을 현장에 적용할 경우 확산지수 결정에 주의하여야 할 것으로 판단된다. 즉, 수치모형에 적용할 확산지수는 BTC 실험을 통하여 측정한 확산지수, 수치확산, 흡착계수, 적용영역의 크기 등을 고려하여 결정하여야 한다. 특히 본 논문에서는 TDR을 이용하여 최초로 천이상태의 함수량과 오염원 농도를 측정하였는데 이를 위하여 전기전도도와 함수량관계를 추정하는 식을 제안하였으며, 전기전도도와 토양수 농도, 전기전도도와 함수량의 관계를 이용한 천이상태의 오염원 농도 측정방법을 개발하였다. 특히 제안식에서는 한계함수량의 개념을 도입하여 전기전도도와 함수량관계를 추정하므로 추정식의 실험값 반영 정도를 증가시켰다. 본 연구에서 제안된 식을 이용하여 추정된 전기전도도와 함수량관계는 다른 제안식에 비하여 개선된 결과를 보여 주었고, 본 연구에서 개발한 오염원 농도 측정법을 이용하여 측정한 결과 함수량이 0.15이하에서는 측정오차가 크지만 함수량이 0.15이상일 경우 매우 좋은 결과를 보였는데 질량평형을 검토한 결과 약 5-10%의 오차율을 보였다. 따라서 본 논문에서 개발된 천이상태의 오염원 농도측정법은 용존 오염물질의 이송에 관한 정확한 실험을 제공할 것으로 판단된다.

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Comparison between REML and Bayesian via Gibbs Sampling Algorithm with a Mixed Animal Model to Estimate Genetic Parameters for Carcass Traits in Hanwoo(Korean Native Cattle) (한우의 도체형질 유전모수 추정을 위한 REML과 Bayesian via Gibbs Sampling 방법의 비교 연구)

  • Roh, S.H.;Kim, B.W.;Kim, H.S.;Min, H.S.;Yoon, H.B.;Lee, D.H.;Jeon, J.T.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.719-728
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    • 2004
  • The aims of this study were to estimate genetic parameters for carcass traits on Hanwoo(Korean Native Cattle) and to compare two different statistical algorithms for estimating genetic parameters. Data obtained from 1526 steers at Hanwoo Improvement Center and Hanwoo Improvement Complex Area from 1996 to 2001 were used for the analyses. The carcass traits considered in these studies were carcass weight, dressing percent, eye muscle area, backfat thickness, and marbling score. Estimated genetic parameters using EM-REML algorithm were compared to those by Bayesian inference via Gibbs Sampling to find out statistical properties. The estimated heritabilities of carcass traits by REML method were 0.28, 0.25, 0.35, 0.39 and 0.51, respectively and those by Gibbs Sampling method were 0.29, 0.25, 0.40, 0.42 and 0.54, respectively. This estimates were not significantly different, even though the estimated heritabilities by Gibbs Sampling method were higher than ones by REML method. Since the estimated statistics by REML method and Gibbs Sampling method were not significantly different in this study, it is inferred that both mothods could be efficiently applied for the analysis of carcass traits of cattle. However, further studies are demanded to define an optimal statistical method for handling large scale performance data.