• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.353-365
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• 2022

This paper evaluates precipitation forecast skill of Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) over South Korea in a boreal winter from December 2013 to February 2014. Three types of precipitation are classified based on development mechanism: 1) convection type (C type), 2) low pressure type (L type), and 3) orographic type (O type), in which their frequencies are 44.4%, 25.0%, and 30.6%, respectively. It appears that the model significantly overestimates precipitation occurrence (0.1 mm d^-1) for all types of winter precipitation. Objective measured skill scores of GRIMs are comparably high for L type and O type. Except for precipitation occurrence, the model shows high predictability for L type precipitation with the most unbiased prediction. It is noted that Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is inappropriate for measuring rare events due to its high dependency on the sample size, as in the case of Critical Success Index as well. The Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score (SEDS) demonstrates less sensitivity on the number of samples. Thus, SEDS is used for the evaluation of prediction skill to supplement the limit of ETS. The evaluation via SEDS shows that the prediction skill score for L type is the highest in the range of 5.0, 10.0 mm d^-1 and the score for O type is the highest in the range of 1.0, 20.0 mm d^-1. C type has the lowest scores in overall range. The difference in precipitation forecast skill by precipitation type can be explained by the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation in each representative case.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.11
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• pp.1039-1050
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• 2014

The goal of this study is to demonstrate the diversity of model performance for various climatic elements and indicators. We evaluated the skills of the most advanced 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs) i.e., CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison project, phase 5) climate models in reproducing retrospective climatology from 1950 to 2000 over the Southeast US for the key climatic elements important in the hydrological and agricultural perspectives (i.e., precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and wind speed). The biases of raw CMIP5 GCMs were estimated for 16 different climatic indicators that imply mean climatology, temporal variability, extreme frequency, etc. using a grid-based observational dataset as reference. Based on the error (RMSE) and correlation (R) of GCM outputs, the error-based GCM ranks were assigned on average over the indicators. Overall, the GCMs showed much better accuracy in representing mean climatology of temperature comparing to other elements whereas few GCM showed acceptable skills for precipitation. It was also found that the model skills and ranks would be substantially different by the climatic elements, error statistics applied for evaluation, and indicators as well. This study presents significance of GCM uncertainty and the needs of considering rational strategies for climate model evaluation and selection.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.209-223
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• 2013

The purpose of this study was to estimate the contributed concentration of each emission source to $CH_4$ by verifying the simulated concentration of $CH_4$ in the Korean peninsula, and then to compare the $CH_4$ emission used to the $CH_4$ simulation with that of a box model. We simulated the Weather Research Forecasting-Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model to estimate the mean concentration of $CH_4$ during the period of April 1 to 22 August 2010 in the Korean peninsula. The $CH_4$ emissions within the model were adopted by the anthropogenic emission inventory of both the EDGAR of the global emissions and the GHG-CAPSS of the green house gases in Korea, and by the global biogenic emission inventory of the MEGAN. These $CH_4$ emission data were validated by comparing the $CH_4$ modeling data with the concentration data measured at two different location, Ulnungdo and Anmyeondo in Korea. The contributed concentration of $CH_4$ estimated from the domestic emission sources in verification of the $CH_4$ modeling at Ulnungdo was represented in about 20%, which originated from $CH_4$ sources such as stock farm products (8%), energy contribution and industrial processes (6%), wastes (5%), and biogenesis and landuse (1%) in the Korean peninsula. In addition, one that transported from China was about 9%, and the background concentration of $CH_4$ was shown in about 70%. Furthermore, the $CH_4$ emission estimated from a box model was similar to that of the WRF-CMAQ model.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.79-91
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• 2011

In order to study interactions between climate change and air quality, a modeling system including the downscaling scheme has been developed in the integrated manner. This research focuses on the development of a downscaling method to utilize CCSM3 outputs as the initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model, MM5. Horizontal/vertical interpolation was performed to convert from the latitude/longitude and hybrid-vertical coordinate for the CCSM3 model to the Lambert-Conformal Arakawa-B and sigma-vertical coordinate for the MM5 model. A variable diagnosis was made to link between different variables and their units of CCSM and MM5. To evaluate the dynamic downscaling performance of this study, spatial distributions were compared between outputs of CCSM/MM5 and NRA/MM5 and statistic analysis was conducted. Temperature and precipitation patterns of CCSM/MM5 in summer and winter showed a similar pattern with those of observation data in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. In addition, statistical analysis presented that the agreement index (AI) is more than 0.9 and correlation coefficient about 0.9. Those results indicate that the dynamic downscaling system built in this study can be used for the research of interaction between climate change and air quality.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.317-328
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• 2010

This paper describes the results of complete Bouguer anomalies computed from the Free-air anomalies that derived from Sandwell and DNSC08 marine gravity models. Complete bouguer corrections consist of three parts: the bouguer correction (Bullard A), the curvature correction (Bullard B) and the terrain correction (Bullard C). These all corrections have been computed over the East Sea on a $1'{\times}1'$elevation data (topography and bathymetry) derived from ETOPO1 global relief model. In addition, a constant topographic (sea-water) density of $2,670kg/m^3$($1,030kg/m^3$) has been used for all correction terms. The distribution of complete bouguer anomalies computed from DNSC08 are -34.390 ~ 267.925 mGal, and those from Sandwell are -32.446 ~ 266.967 mGal in East Sea. The mean and RMSE value of the difference between DNSC08 and Sandwell is $0.036{\pm}2.373\;mGal$. The highest value of complete bouguer anomaly are found around the region of $42{\sim}43^{\circ}N$ and $137{\sim}139^{\circ}E$ (has the lowest bathymetry) in both models. These values show that the gravity distribution of both models, DNSC08 and Sandwell, are very similar. They indicate that satellite-based marine gravity model can be effectively used to analyze the geophysical, geological and geodetic characteristics in East Sea.

• Atmosphere
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2007

A constraint based on climatology is introduced to the cost function of the three-dimensional variational assimilation (3dVar) to correct the error of the zonal mean wind structure in the global data assimilation system at Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). The revised cost function compels the analysis fit to the chosen climatology while keeping the balance between the variables in the course of analysis. The constraint varies selectively with the vertical level and the horizontal scale of the motion. The zonally averaged wind field from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis 40 (ERA-40) is used as a climatology field in the constraint. The constraint controls only the zonally averaged stratospheric long waves with total wave number less than 20 to fix the error of the large scale wind field in the stratosphere. The constrained 3dVar successfully suppresses the erroneous westerly in the stratospheric analysis promptly, and has been applied on the operational global 3dVar system at KMA.

• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.141-151
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• 2018

The KIAPS global model and data assimilation system were extended to assimilate brightness temperature from the Sondeur $Atmosph{\acute{e}}rique$ du Profil $d^{\prime}Humidit{\acute{e}}$ Intertropicale par $Radiom{\acute{e}}trie$ (SAPHIR) passive microwave water vapor sounder on board the Megha-Tropiques satellite. Quality control procedures were developed to assess the SAPHIR data quality for assimilating clear-sky observations over the ocean, and to characterize observation biases and errors. In the global cycle, additional assimilation of SAPHIR observation shows globally significant benefits for 1.5% reduction of the humidity root-mean-square difference (RMSD) against European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) analysis. The positive forecast impacts for the humidity and temperature in the experiment assimilating SAPHIR were predominant at later lead times between 96- and 168-hour. Even though its spatial coverage is confined to lower latitudes of $30^{\circ}S-30^{\circ}N$ and the observable variable is humidity, the assimilation of SAPHIR has a positive impact on the other variables over the mid-latitude domain. Verification showed a 3% reduction of the humidity RMSD with assimilating SAPHIR, and moreover temperature, zonal wind and surface pressure RMSDs were reduced up to 3%, 5% and 7% near the tropical and mid-latitude regions, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.75-88
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• 1990

NOAA 위성의 narrow-band AVHRR(Advanced Very. High Resolution Radiometer) 적 외선 채널과 broad-band 0.2 - 50$\mu\textrm{m}$ 영역의 ERBE(Earth Radiation Budget Experiment) scanning instrument에 의하여 관측된 radiance로부터 추정된 지구의 대기 외장파복사량 (Outgoing Longwave Radiation:OLR) 이 비교조사되었다. 이를 위하여 1985년 4월, 7월, 10월과 1986년 1월에 위성에서 관측된 radiance를 각각 이용하였고 비교된 OLR은 위도와 경도가 각각 2.5$^{\circ}$ 간격으로 구분된 grid내에서 일치(collocate)시켜 지역별(zonal), 그리고 전지구(global)규모 로 비교되었다. ERBE와 AVHRR에 의하여 각각 추정된 OLR값의 차(ERBE minus AVHRR)에 의한 분석 결과는 주간의 경우 -1~2 W/m$^2$의 값과 야간의 경우 4~7 W/m$^2$의 값으로 비교적 좋은 일치를 보였지만 이들의 RMS는 하절(6월)에 12 W/m$^2$와 동절(12월)에 5 W/m$^2$의 값으로 다소 높은 차이를 보였다. 한편, 이들 OLR값을 관측지역에 따라 큰 차 이를 나타내어 사막지역과 아열대고기압(subtropical ocean)대에서는 상반된 결과를 보였다. 이들 지역에 대한 차이는 지역적 기온구조와 지표온도의 영향을 다 고려하지 못하고 OLR 측정치를 도 출하는 대기복사모델(radiation model)의 regional systematic bias에서 기인된 것으로 해석된다. 즉 사막의 지표역전층에 대한 AVHRR과 해면의 대기구조에 대한 ERBE의 OLR은 상반된 영향을 보였다.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.219-226
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• 2019

Generally, the weather forecast system has been run using prescribed ocean condition. As it is widely known that coupling between atmosphere and ocean process produces consistent initial condition at all-time scales to improve forecast skill, there are many trials on the application of data assimilation of coupled model. In this study, we implemented a weakly coupled data assimilation (short for WCDA) system in global NWP model with low horizontal resolution for coupled forecast with uncoupled initialization, following WCDA system at the Met Office. The experiment is carried out for a typhoon evolution forecast in 2017. Air-sea exchange process provides SST cooling and gives a substantial impact on tendency of central pressure changes in the decaying phase of the typhoon, except the underestimated central pressure. Coupled data assimilation is a challenging new area, requiring further work, but it would offer the potential for improving air-sea feedback process on NWP timescales and finally contributing forecast accuracy.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.186-186
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• 2020

본 연구에서는 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 6차 평가보고서(6th Assessment Report, AR6)에서 제시한 새로운 온실가스 경로(SSP, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)에 따라 산출된 전지구 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 제주도의 미래 강수량 변화를 살펴보고자 한다. 기상청에서 운영하는 기후정보포털(http://www.climate.go.kr/)에서는 6가지 기상요소(평균기온, 최고기온, 최저기온, 강수량, 상대습도, 풍속 등)에 대하여 SSP 시나리오 자료를 제공하고 있다. SSP 시나리오는 SSP1-2.6 저탄소 시나리오(사회 불균형의 감소와 친환경 기술의 빠른 발달로 기후변화 완화, 적응능력이 좋은 지속성장가능 사회경제 구조)와 SSP5-8.5 고탄소 시나리오(기후정책 부재, 화석연료 기반 성장과 높은 인적 투자로 기후변화 적응능력은 좋지만 완화능력이 낮은 사회경제 구조)로 구분되어 제공되고 있다. 또한, 현재의 기후 상태를 모의하는 historical period (1850-2014) 자료와 미래의 기후상태를 모의한 future period (2015-2100) 자료가 있으며, 월별(momthly), 연간(yearly) 자료의 형태로 제공된다. 본 연구를 통하여 새로운 SSP 시나리오를 이용한 제주도 강수량의 미래 변화를 정량적으로 분석하였고, 기후변화에 능동적인 대책을 수립하는데 도움이 될 것으로 판단된다.