• 제목/요약/키워드: 전력량 예측

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A Study on the Generation Capacity and Cost Analysis of Solar-Wind Hybrid Power System (태양광-풍력 복합발전시스템의 용량 산정과 경제성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Hwan;Lee, Seung-Chul;Kwon, Byeong-Gook;Oh, Hae-Jin
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.348-350
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    • 2003
  • 본 논문에서는 태양광-풍력 복합발전시스템의 발전용량 예측을 통한 시스템 시설투자비 및 발전단가와 경제성에 대하여 분석한다. 도시지역의 일사량 및 풍속 데이터를 기초로 하여 복합발전시스템의 일일 발전량을 구하고, 수용가의 일일부하패턴과 수요부하를 고려하여 태양전지 어레이와 풍력발전기의 용량을 산정한다. 그리고 용량 산정에 따른 복합발전시스템의 초기투자비용과 연간 발전량, 연간 소요경비 등의 요소를 고려하여 총 수명가 분석법(Total Life-Cycle Cost Analysis)에 기초한 발전단가를 계산하고 잉여전력을 계통에 판매할 경우의 경제성을 평가한다.

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A Proposal of the Prediction Method of Decentralized Power on Climatic Change (기후 변화에 따른 분산 전력 예측 방법 제안)

  • Kim, Jeong-Young;Kim, Bo-Min;Bang, Hyun-Jin;Jang, Min-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.942-945
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    • 2010
  • The development of decentralized power has appeared as part of an effort to decrease the energy loss and the cost for electric power facilities through installing small renewable energy generation systems including solar and wind power generation. Recently a new era for decentralized power environment in building is coming in order to handle the climatic and environmental change occurred all over the world. Especially solar and wind power generation systems can be easily set up and are also economically feasible, and thus many industrial companies enter into this business. This paper suggests the overall architecture for the decentralized renewable power system and the prediction method of power on climatic change. The ultimate goal is to help manage the overall power efficiently and thus provide the technological basis for achieving zero-energy house.

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Development of numerical model for estimating thermal environment of underground power conduit considering characteristics of backfill materials (되메움재 특성을 고려한 전력구 열환경 변화 예측 수치해석모델 개발)

  • Kim, Gyeonghun;Park, Sangwoo;Kim, Min-Ju;Lee, Dae-Soo;Choi, Hangseok
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.121-141
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    • 2017
  • The thermal analysis of an underground power conduit for electrical cables is essential to determine their current capacity with an increasing number of demands for high-voltage underground cables. The temperature rises around a buried cable, caused by excessive heat dissipation, may increase considerably the thermal resistance of the cables, leading to the danger of "thermal runaway" or damaging to insulators. It is a key design factor to develop the mechanism on thermal behavior of backfilling materials for underground power conduits. With a full-scale field test, a numerical model was developed to estimate the temperature change as well as the thermal resistance existing between an underground power conduit and backfill materials. In comparison with the field test, the numerical model for analyzing thermal behavior depending on density, moisture content and soil constituents is verified by the one-year-long field measurement.

Suggestion of a Hybrid Method for Estimating Photovoltaic Power Generation (전력 IT 시스템에서 복합방식의 태양광 발전량 예측 방법 제안)

  • Ju, Woo-Sun;Jang, Min-Seok;Lee, Yon-Sik;Bae, Seok-Chan;Kim, Weon-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2011.10a
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    • pp.782-785
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    • 2011
  • Needs for MG(Microgrid) development are increasing all over the world as a solution to the problems including the depletion problem of energy resources, the growing demand for electric power and the climatic and environmental change. Especially Photovoltaic power is one of the most general renewable energy resources. However there is a problem of the uniformity of power quality because the power generated from solar light is very sensitive to climate fluctuation (variation of insolation and duration of sunshine, etc). As a solution to the above problem, ESS(Energy Storage System) is considered generally, but it has some limitations. To solve this problem this paper suggests a hybrid estimation method of photovoltaic power generation according to two climatic factors, i.e. insolation and sunshine. This result seems to help design the appropriate capacity of ESS and estimate the proper switching time between DC and AC power in the premises power system and thus maintain the uniformity of power quality.

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An Efficient Adaptive Sampling Technique based on the Kalman Filter for Sensor Monitoring (센서 모니터링을 위한 칼만필터 기반의 효율적인 적응적 샘플링 기법)

  • Kim, Min-Kee;Min, Jun-Ki
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.17D no.3
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 2010
  • In sensor network environments, each sensor measures the physical environments according to the sampling period, and transmits a sensor reading to the base station. Thus, the sample period influences against importance resources such as a network bandwidth, and a battery power. In this paper, we propose new adaptive sampling technique that adjusts the sampling period of a sensor with respect to the features of sensor readings. The proposed technique predicts a future readings based on KF (Kalman Filter). By using the differences of actual readings and estimated reading, we identify the importance of sensor readings, and then, we adjust the sampling period according to the importance. In our experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our technique.

Greedy Technique for Smart Grid Demand Response Systems (스마트 그리드 수요반응 시스템을 위한 그리디 스케줄링 기법)

  • Park, Laihyuk;Eom, Jaehyeon;Kim, Joongheon;Cho, Sungrae
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.391-395
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    • 2016
  • In the last few decades, global electricity consumption has dramatically increased and has become drastically fluctuating and uncertain causing blackout. Due to the unexpected peak electricity demand, we need significant electricity supply. The solutions to these problems are smart grid system which is envisioned as future power system. Smart grid system can reduce electricity peak demand and induce effective electricity consumption through various price policies, demand response (DR) control methodologies, and state-of-the-art smart equipments in order to optimize electricity resource usage in an intelligent fashion. Demand response (DR) is one of the key technologies to enable smart grid. In this paper, we propose greedy technique for demand response smart grid system. The proposed scheme focuses on minimizing electricity bills, preventing system blackout and sacrificing user convenience.

Adequacy Assessment of Locational Spinning Reserve (지역별 운영예비력 적정성 평가 방법)

  • Yoon, Yong-Ho;Lee, Jae-Hee;Kim, Young-Wook;Joo, Sung-Kwan;Choi, Eun-Jae;Kim, Ki-Sik;Song, Kwang-Heon
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2011.07a
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    • pp.654-655
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    • 2011
  • 운영예비력은 전력설비의 불시사고, 예상치 못한 전력수요 증가 등의 불확실 상황에 대비하기 위해 운영된다. 발전설비의 경제적 효율 및 부하분포에 따라 운영예비력이 지역별로 불균형하게 분포되면 특정 지역의 사고에 대해 신속히 대응하지 못할 수 있다. 특히, 전력수급의 상당부분을 타 지역에서의 송전에 의존하는 지역의 경우, 연계송전 선로 및 지역 내 발전설비 사고에 대비해 지역 내 충분한 운전예비력이 확보되어야 설비사고의 확대를 방지할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 전력의 상당량을 외부로부터 수전하는 지역의 신속한 사고대응을 위한 지역 내운전예비력의 적정성 평가 방안을 제시하였다. 제시 방법에는 외부 연계선 및 발전설비의 사고 확률모델 및 수요예측 오차를 고려하여 지역 내운전예비력의 적정성을 평가할 수 있는 부하차단확률 지표를 제시하였다.

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A numerical study of the effects of the ventilation velocity on the thermal characteristics in underground utility tunnel (지하공동구 터널내 풍속 변화에 따른 열특성에 관한 수치 해석적 연구)

  • Yoo, Ji-Oh;Kim, Jin-Su;Ra, Kwang-Hoon
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2017
  • In this research, thermal design data such as heat transfer coefficient on the wall surface required for ventilation system design which is to prevent the temperature rise in the underground utility tunnel that three sides are adjoined with the ground was investigated in numerical analalysis. The numerical model has been devised including the tunnel lining of the underground utility tunnel in order to take account for the heat transfer in the tunnel walls. The air temperature in the tunnel, wall temperature, and the heating value through the wall based on heating value(117~468 kW/km) of the power cable installed in the tunnel and the wind speed in the tunnel(0.5~4.0 m/s) were calculated by CFD simulation. In addition, the wall heat transfer coefficient was computed from the results analysis, and the limit distance used to keep the air temperature in the tunnel stable was examined through the research. The convective heat transfer coefficient at the wall surface shows unstable pattern at the inlet area. However, it converges to a constant value beyond approximately 100 meter. The tunnel wall heat transfer coefficient is $3.1{\sim}9.16W/m^2^{\circ}C$ depending on the wind speed, and following is the dimensionless number:$Nu=1.081Re^{0.4927}({\mu}/{\mu}_w)^{0.14}$. This study has suggested the prediction model of temperature in the tunnel based on the thermal resistance analysis technique, and it is appraised that deviation can be used in the range of 3% estimation.

Probabilistic Modeling of Photovoltaic Power Systems with Big Learning Data Sets (대용량 학습 데이터를 갖는 태양광 발전 시스템의 확률론적 모델링)

  • Cho, Hyun Cheol;Jung, Young Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.412-417
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    • 2013
  • Analytical modeling of photovoltaic power systems has been receiving significant attentions in recent years in that it is easy to apply for prediction of its dynamics and fault detection and diagnosis in advanced engineering technologies. This paper presents a novel probabilistic modeling approach for such power systems with a big data sequence. Firstly, we express input/output function of photovoltaic power systems in which solar irradiation and ambient temperature are regarded as input variable and electric power is output variable respectively. Based on this functional relationship, conditional probability for these three random variables(such as irradiation, temperature, and electric power) is mathematically defined and its estimation is accomplished from ratio of numbers of all sample data to numbers of cases related to two input variables, which is efficient in particular for a big data sequence of photovoltaic powers systems. Lastly, we predict the output values from a probabilistic model of photovoltaic power systems by using the expectation theory. Two case studies are carried out for testing reliability of the proposed modeling methodology in this paper.

Economic Effects of the Post-2020 Climate Change Mitigation Commitments: From the Generation Industry's Perspective (Post-2020 신기후체제의 발전부문 대응에 따른 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Yun, Taesik;Lee, Bongyong;Noh, Jaeyup
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.136-148
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    • 2016
  • We analyze economic effects of GHG reduction measures of the generation industry to meet 2030 GHG reduction target using the scenario based approach. We estimate the GHG emission of the Korean power industry in 2030 based on both the $7^{th}$ Electricity Supply & Demand Plan and the GHG emission coefficients issued by IAEA. We set up three scenarios for reduction measures by replacing the coal fired plants with nuclear power, renewable energy and carbon capture and storage. Once and for all, the nuclear power scenario dominates the other energy technologies in terms of GHG reduction quantities and economic effects.