• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전략적 예측

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Current Calculation Simulation Model for Smartgrid-based Energy Distribution System Operation (스마트 그리드 기반 에너지 시스템 운영을 위한 배전계통 조류계산 시뮬레이션 모델 개발)

  • Bae, HeeSun;Shin, Seungjae;Moon, Il-Chul;Bae, Jang Won
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.113-126
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    • 2021
  • The future energy consumption pattern will show a very different pattern from the present due to the increase of distributed power sources such as renewable energy and the birth of the concept of prosumers, etc. Accordingly, it can be predicted that the direction of establishment of an appropriate production and supply plan considering the stability and consumption efficiency of the entire power grid will also be different from now. This paper proposes a simulation model that can test a new operational strategy when faced with a number of possible future environments. Through the proposed model, it is possible to simulate and analyze power consumed and supplied in a future Smart Grid environment, in which a large amount of new concepts including energy storage service (ESS) and distributed energy resources (DER) will be added. In particular, it is possible to model complex systems structurally by using DEVS formalism among the ABM (Agent-Based Model) methodologies that can model decision-making for each agent existing in the grid, and several factors can be easily added to the grid. The simulation model was verified using given dataset in the current situation, and scenario analysis was performed by simply adding an ESS, one of the main elements of the smart grid, to the model.

Analysis of Digital Twin Technology Trends Related to Geoscience and Mineral Resources after the Korean New Deal Policy in 2020 (2020년 한국판 뉴딜 정책 이후 지질자원 분야 디지털 트윈 기술개발 동향 분석)

  • Ahn, Eun-Young
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.54 no.6
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    • pp.659-670
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we analyzed changes in policies after the Korean New Deal Policy in 2020, metaverse and 6th generation communication technology. In the research and development of geoscience and mineral resources, we emphasized on the connection between smart cities and digital twins by focusing on the linkage of the real world and geo-information. Further, we examined trends in developing digital twins after the Korean New Deal Policy in 2020 that focused on three-dimensional visualization technology, the first stage in implementing digital twins, and real-time monitoring technology of underground information, the second implementing stage. As results of this study, we emphasized on the efforts to provide accurate underground information based on geology, groundwater and geo-environment and to analyze and predict near-real-time levels of available underground information to the industry, local governments and the central governments. Research and development that integrate the fields of geology, environment, and information is required to lead national digital twin policies and smart city policies owing to the acceleration of the digital economy in Korea and globally during the post-Corona era.

A Dilemma of Kyrgyzstan Goes Through the Process of Nation-Building: National Security Problems and Independent National Defense Capability (국가건설과정에서 키르기스스탄의 국가안보와 자주국방의 딜레마)

  • Kim, Seun Rae
    • Journal of International Area Studies (JIAS)
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.27-52
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    • 2011
  • The regions of Central Asia have each acquired an elevated strategic importance in the new security paradigm of post-September 1lth. Comprised of five states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia's newly enhanced strategic importance stems from several other factors, ranging from trans-national threats posed by Islamic extremism, drug production and trafficking, to the geopolitical threats inherent in the region's location as a crossroads between Russia, Southwest Asia and China. Although the U.S. military presence in the region began before September 11th, the region became an important platform for the projection of U.S. military power against the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan. The analysis goes on to warn that 'with US troops already in place to varying extents in Central Asian states, it becomes particularly important to understand the faultlines, geography, and other challenges this part of the world presents'. The Kyrgyz military remains an embryonic force with a weak chain of command, the ground force built to Cold War standards, and an almost total lack of air capabilities. Training, discipline and desertion - at over 10 per cent, the highest among the Central Asian republics - continue to present major problems for the creation of combat-effective armed forces. Kyrgyzstan has a declared policy of national defence and independence without the use of non-conventional weapons. Kyrgyzstan participates in the regional security structures, such as the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) but, in security matters at least, it is dependent upon Russian support. The armed forces are poorly trained and ill-equipped to fulfil an effective counter-insurgency or counter-terrorist role. The task of rebuilding is much bigger, and so are the stakes - the integrity and sovereignty of the Kyrgyz state. Only democratization, the fight against corruption, reforms in the military and educational sectors and strategic initiatives promoting internal economic integration and national cohesion hold the key to Kyrgyzstan's lasting future

Design Application for Urban Air Mobility(UAM) by STEEP Analysis (STEEP 분석을 통한 도심항공교통(UAM) 디자인 활용방안)

  • Lee, Dong Hun;Park, Hae Rim
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.94-105
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    • 2022
  • Urban Air Transportation (UAM) is a three-dimensional transport within the city using eVTOL as an alternative to the saturation of land transportation due to overcrowding in major cities around the world. Design has played its roles in various fields in the development of transport, but research on the design application of UAM, which will be commercialized soon, is insufficient. Accordingly, there is a growing need for prior research on the forecasting the future environment and the design application through phenomenon analysis. The purpose of this study is to derive mega trends through STEP analysis for UAM and present ways to apply design in the UAM field based on this. The research method was conducted in the following order. First, the theoretical background of UAM was established by analyzing prior art documents on UAM. Second, five trends in the future environment centered on UAM were derived through STEP analysis. Finally, in order to derive a design application, five experts in each design area (product, visual, video, environment, service) discussed the design application focusing on the results of STEP analysis and derived a design application plan for each design area in the UAM field. Through this study, it was found that the most frequent design area in the STEEP analysis is product design and service design, and therefore related design development is important. After analyzing UAM's information provision plan, display method, and usage process suggested in this study, it is expected that it will lead to various prior design studies related to UAM, such as customized service design, to establish an infrastructure environment for commercialization of UAM.

Optimal Operational Plan of AGV and AMR in Fulfillment Centers using Simulation (시뮬레이션 기반 풀필먼트센터 최적 AGV 및 AMR 운영 계획 수립)

  • JunHyuk Choi;KwangSup Shin
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2021
  • Current development of technologies related to 4th industrial revolution and the pandemic of COVID-19 lead the rapid expansion of e-marketplace. The level of competition among several companies gets increased by introducing different strategies. To cope with the current change in the market and satisfy the customers who request the better delivery service, the new concept, fulfillment, has been introduced. It makes the leadtime of process from order picking to delivery reduced and the efficiency improved. Still, the efficiency of operation in fulfillment centers constrains the service level of the entire delivery process. In order to solve this problem, several different approaches for demand forecasting and coordinating supplies using Bigdata, IoT and AI, which there exists the trivial limitations. Because it requires the most lead time for operation and leads the inefficiency the process from picking to packing the ordered items, the logistics service providers should try to automate this procedure. In this research, it has been proposed to develop the efficient plans to automate the process to move the ordered items from the location where it stores to stage for packing using AGV and AMR. The efficiency of automated devices depends on the number of items and total number of devices based on the demand. Therefore, the result of simulation based on several different scenarios has been analyzed. From the result of simulation, it is possible to identify the several factors which should be concerned for introducing the automated devices in the fulfillment centers. Also, it can be referred to make the optimal decisions based on the efficiency metrics.

A Study on Intelligent Self-Recovery Technologies for Cyber Assets to Actively Respond to Cyberattacks (사이버 공격에 능동대응하기 위한 사이버 자산의 지능형 자가복구기술 연구)

  • Se-ho Choi;Hang-sup Lim;Jung-young Choi;Oh-jin Kwon;Dong-kyoo Shin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2023
  • Cyberattack technology is evolving to an unpredictable degree, and it is a situation that can happen 'at any time' rather than 'someday'. Infrastructure that is becoming hyper-connected and global due to cloud computing and the Internet of Things is an environment where cyberattacks can be more damaging than ever, and cyberattacks are still ongoing. Even if damage occurs due to external influences such as cyberattacks or natural disasters, intelligent self-recovery must evolve from a cyber resilience perspective to minimize downtime of cyber assets (OS, WEB, WAS, DB). In this paper, we propose an intelligent self-recovery technology to ensure sustainable cyber resilience when cyber assets fail to function properly due to a cyberattack. The original and updated history of cyber assets is managed in real-time using timeslot design and snapshot backup technology. It is necessary to secure technology that can automatically detect damage situations in conjunction with a commercialized file integrity monitoring program and minimize downtime of cyber assets by analyzing the correlation of backup data to damaged files on an intelligent basis to self-recover to an optimal state. In the future, we plan to research a pilot system that applies the unique functions of self-recovery technology and an operating model that can learn and analyze self-recovery strategies appropriate for cyber assets in damaged states.

A global-scale assessment of agricultural droughts and their relation to global crop prices (전 지구 농업가뭄 발생특성 및 곡물가격과의 상관성 분석)

  • Kim, Daeha;Lee, Hyun-Ju
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.12
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    • pp.883-893
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    • 2023
  • While South Korea's dependence on imported grains is very high, droughts impacts from exporting countries have been overlooked. Using the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), this study globally analyzed frequency, extent, and long-term trends of agricultural droughts and their relation to natural oscillations and global crop prices. Results showed that global-scale correlations were found between ESI and soil moisture anomalies, and they were particularly strong in crop cultivation areas. The high correlations in crop cultivation areas imply a strong land-atmosphere coupling, which can lead to relatively large yield losses with a minor soil moisture deficits. ESI showed a clear decreasing trend in crop cultivation areas from 1991 to 2022, and this trend may continue due to global warming. The sharp increases in the grain prices in 2012 and 2022 were likely related to increased drought areas in major grain-exporting countries, and they seemed to elevate South Korea's producer price index. This study suggests the need for drought risk management for grain-exporting countries to reduce socioeconomic impacts in South Korea.

An empirical study on RFM-T model for market performance of B2B-based Technology Industry Companies (B2B 중심의 기술 산업 기업의 수익성 성과를 위한 RFM-T 모형 실증 연구)

  • Miyoung Woo;Young-Jun Kim
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.167-175
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    • 2024
  • Due to the Fourth Industrial Revolution, ICT(Information and Communication Technology) industry is becoming more important and sophisticated than ever. In B2B based ICT industry demand forecasting by analyzing the previous customer data is so important. RFM, one of customer relationship management models is a marketing technique that evaluates Recency, Frequency and Monetary value to predict customers behavior. RFM model has been studied focusing on the B2C based industry. On the other hand there is a lack of research on B2B based technology industry. Therefore this study applied it to B2B based high technology industry and considered T(technology collaboration) value, which are identified as important factors in the technology industry. To present an improved model for market performance in B2B technology industry, an empirical study was conducted on comparing the accuracy of the traditional RFM model and the improved RFM-T model. The objective of this study is to contribute to market performance by presenting an improved model in B2B based high technology industry.

Application Strategies of Superintelligent AI in the Defense Sector: Emphasizing the Exploration of New Domains and Centralizing Combat Scenario Modeling (초거대 인공지능의 국방 분야 적용방안: 새로운 영역 발굴 및 전투시나리오 모델링을 중심으로)

  • PARK GUNWOO
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.19-24
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    • 2024
  • The future military combat environment is rapidly expanding the role and importance of artificial intelligence (AI) in defense, aligning with the current trends of declining military populations and evolving dynamics. Particularly, in the civilian sector, AI development has surged into new domains based on foundation models, such as OpenAI's Chat-GPT, categorized as Super-Giant AI or Hyperscale AI. The U.S. Department of Defense has organized Task Force Lima under the Chief Digital and AI Office (CDAO) to conduct research on the application of Large Language Models (LLM) and generative AI. Advanced military nations like China and Israel are also actively researching the integration of Super-Giant AI into their military capabilities. Consequently, there is a growing need for research within our military regarding the potential applications and fields of application for Super-Giant AI in weapon systems. In this paper, we compare the characteristics and pros and cons of specialized AI and Super-Giant AI (Foundation Models) and explore new application areas for Super-Giant AI in weapon systems. Anticipating future application areas and potential challenges, this research aims to provide insights into effectively integrating Super-Giant Artificial Intelligence into defense operations. It is expected to contribute to the development of military capabilities, policy formulation, and international security strategies in the era of advanced artificial intelligence.

The Causes of Conflict and the Effect of Control Mechanisms on Conflict Resolution between Manufacturer and Supplier (제조-공급자간 갈등 원인과 거래조정 방식의 갈등관리 효과)

  • Rhee, Jin Hwa
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.55-80
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    • 2012
  • I. Introduction Developing the relationships between companies is very important issue to ensure a competitive advantage in today's business environment (Bleeke & Ernst 1991; Mohr & Spekman 1994; Powell 1990). Partnerships between companies are based on having same goals, pursuing mutual understanding, and having a professional level of interdependence. By having such a partnerships and cooperative efforts between companies, they will achieve efficiency and effectiveness of their business (Mohr and Spekman, 1994). However, it is difficult to expect these ideal results only in the B2B corporate transaction. According to agency theory which is the well-accepted theory in various fields of business strategy, organization, and marketing, the two independent companies have fundamentally different corporate purposes. Also there is a higher chance of developing opportunism and conflict due to natures of human(organization), such as self-interest, bounded rationality, risk aversion, and environment factor as imbalance of information (Eisenhardt 1989). That is, especially partnerships between principal(or buyer) and agent(or supplier) of companies within supply chain, the business contract itself will not provide competitive advantage. But managing partnership between companies is the key to success. Therefore, managing partnership between manufacturer and supplier, and finding causes of conflict are essential to improve B2B performance. In conclusion, based on prior researches and Agency theory, this study will clarify how business hazards cause conflicts on supply chain and then identify how developed conflicts have been managed by two control mechanisms. II. Research model III. Method In order to validate our research model, this study gathered questionnaires from small and medium sized enterprises(SMEs). In Korea, SMEs mean the firms whose employee is under 300 and capital is under 8 billion won(about 7.2 million dollar). We asked the manufacturer's perception about the relationship with the biggest supplier, and our key informants are denied to a person responsible for buying(ex)CEO, executives, managers of purchasing department, and so on). In detail, we contact by telephone to our initial sample(about 1,200 firms) and introduce our research motivation and send our questionnaires by e-mail, mail, and direct survey. Finally we received 361 data and eliminate 32 inappropriate questionnaires. We use 329 manufactures' data on analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify the anticipant role of business hazard (environmental dynamism, asset specificity) and investigate the moderating effect of control mechanism(formal control, social control) on conflict-performance relationship. To find out moderating effect of control methods, we need to compare the regression weight between low versus. high group(about level of exercised control methods). Therefore we choose the structural equation modeling method that is proper to do multi-group analysis. The data analysis is performed by AMOS 17.0 software, and model fits are good statically (CMIN/DF=1.982, p<.000, CFI=.936, IFI=.937, RMSEA=.056). IV. Result V. Discussion Results show that the higher environmental dynamism and asset specificity(on particular supplier) buyer(manufacturer) has, the more B2B conflict exists. And this conflict affect relationship quality and financial outcomes negatively. In addition, social control and formal control could weaken the negative effect of conflict on relationship quality significantly. However, unlikely to assure conflict resolution effect of control mechanisms on relationship quality, financial outcomes are changed by neither social control nor formal control. We could explain this results with the characteristics of our sample, SMEs(Small and Medium sized Enterprises). Financial outcomes of these SMEs(manufacturer or principal) are affected by their customer(usually major company) more easily than their supplier(or agent). And, in recent few years, most of companies have suffered from financial problems because of global economic recession. It means that it is hard to evaluate the contribution of supplier(agent). Therefore we also support the suggestion of Gladstein(1984), Poppo & Zenger(2002) that relational performance variable can capture the focal outcomes of relationship(exchange) better than financial performance variable. This study has some implications that it tests the sources of conflict and investigates the effect of resolution methods of B2B conflict empirically. And, especially, it finds out the significant moderating effect of formal control which past B2B management studies have ignored in Korea.

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