• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전략시나리오

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Scenario-Based Analysis on the Effects of Green Areas on the Improvement of Urban Thermal Environment (녹지 조성 시나리오에 따른 도시 열환경 개선 효과 분석)

  • Min, Jin-Kyu;Eum, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Uk-Je;Son, Jeong-Min;Kim, Ju-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2022
  • To alleviate the urban heat island phenomenon, this study aims to quantitatively analyze the effects of neighborhood green spaces on the improvement of the thermal environment based on detailed scenarios of five types of green spaces, including parks, pocket parks, parking lot greening, roadside planting, and rooftop-wall greening. The ENVI-met 4.4.6v model, a microclimate simulation program, was used to analyze the effects of green spaces. As a result, it was found that the air temperature decreased as the planting density of the park increased, but the thermal comfort index PET, which is the degree of heat sensation felt by humans, was not directly proportional to temperature. The establishment of a pocket park reduced air temperature up to a radius of 56m, while the range of temperature reduction increased by about 12.5% when three additional pocket parks were established at 250m intervals. Unlike the air temperature, PET was only affected in the vicinity of the planted area, so there was no significant difference in the thermal comfort of the surrounding environment due to the construction of pocket parks. Changing the surface pavement from asphalt to lawn blocks and implementing rooftop or wall greening did not directly act as solar shading but positively affected air temperature reduction; PET showed no significant difference. Roadside planting showed a higher air temperature reduction effect as the planting interval was narrower, but PET was not directly proportional to tree density. In the case of shrub planting under trees, it did not significantly affect the air temperature reduction but positively affected the improvement of thermal comfort. This study can outline strategies for constructing neighborhood green spaces to solve the urban heat island phenomena and establish detailed strategies for efficient thermal environment improvements.

Plant Hardiness Zone Mapping Based on a Combined Risk Analysis Using Dormancy Depth Index and Low Temperature Extremes - A Case Study with "Campbell Early" Grapevine - (최저기온과 휴면심도 기반의 동해위험도를 활용한 'Campbell Early' 포도의 내동성 지도 제작)

  • Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Soo-Ock;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2008
  • This study was conducted to delineate temporal and spatial patterns of potential risk of cold injury by combining the short-term cold hardiness of Campbell Early grapevine and the IPCC projected climate winter season minimum temperature at a landscape scale. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270m cell spacing ("High Definition Digital Temperature Map", HD-DTM) were prepared for the current climatological normal year (1971-2000) based on observations at the 56 Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) stations using a geospatial interpolation scheme for correcting land surface effects (e.g., land use, topography, and elevation). The same procedure was applied to the official temperature projection dataset covering South Korea (under the auspices of the IPCC-SRES A2 and A1B scenarios) for 2071-2100. The dormancy depth model was run with the gridded datasets to estimate the geographical pattern of any changes in the short-term cold hardiness of Campbell Early across South Korea for the current and future normal years (1971-2000 and 2071-2100). We combined this result with the projected mean annual minimum temperature for each period to obtain the potential risk of cold injury. Results showed that both the land areas with the normal cold-hardiness (-150 and below for dormancy depth) and those with the sub-threshold temperature for freezing damage ($-15^{\circ}C$ and below) will decrease in 2071-2100, reducing the freezing risk. Although more land area will encounter less risk in the future, the land area with higher risk (>70%) will expand from 14% at the current normal year to 23 (A1B) ${\sim}5%$ (A2) in the future. Our method can be applied to other deciduous fruit trees for delineating geographical shift of cold-hardiness zone under the projected climate change in the future, thereby providing valuable information for adaptation strategy in fruit industry.

The Suitable Region and Site for 'Fuji' Apple Under the Projected Climate in South Korea (미래 시나리오 기후조건하에서의 사과 '후지' 품종 재배적지 탐색)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Seung-Heui;Choi, In-Myung;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.162-173
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    • 2009
  • Information on the expected geographical shift of suitable zones for growing crops under future climate is a starting point of adaptation planning in agriculture and is attracting much concern from policy makers as well as researchers. Few practical schemes have been developed, however, because of the difficulty in implementing the site-selection concept at an analytical level. In this study, we suggest site-selection criteria for quality Fuji apple production and integrate geospatial data and information available in public domains (e.g., digital elevation model, digital soil maps, digital climate maps, and predictive models for agroclimate and fruit quality) to implement this concept on a GIS platform. Primary criterion for selecting sites suitable for Fuji apple production includes land cover, topography, and soil texture. When the primary criterion is satisfied, climatic conditions such as the length of frost free season, freezing risk during the overwintering period, and the late frost risk in spring are tested as the secondary criterion. Finally, the third criterion checks for fruit quality such as color and shape. Land attributes related to these factors in each criterion were implemented in ArcGIS environment as relevant raster layers for spatial analysis, and retrieval procedures were automated by writing programs compatible with ArcGIS. This scheme was applied to the A1B projected climates for South Korea in the future normal years (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) as well as the current climate condition observed in 1971-2000 for selecting the sites suitable for quality Fuji apple production in each period. Results showed that this scheme can figure out the geographical shift of suitable zones at landscape scales as well as the latitudinal shift of northern limit for cultivation at national or regional scales.

Management Strategy of Indoor Hazardous Chemicals (실내.외 통합 모델링 및 인체 위해성 평가를 통한 실내 유해화학물질의 관리 전략)

  • Shin, Yong-Seung;Lim, Hye-Sook
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.67-90
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to develop indoor air quality management strategies regarding indoor air pollutants while considering various factors affecting indoor pollutants concentration. The Integrated Indoor Air Quality model(IIAQ) developed by Seoul National University is used for this study. The IIAQ model is a tool that can provide an integrated view to indoor environmental pollution by simulating suggested scenarios. The results of the modeling are used to assess health risk. The concentrations that are used for the risk characterization are weighted concentrations based on the period of time in each place and existing Indoor Air Quality(IAQ) standards. The estimated concentration of toluene and formaldehyde for 10 years through the IIAQ model was 207.3 $ug/m^3$ and 36.4 $ug/m^3$ in indoors, and 55.9 $ug/m^3$ and 8.62 $ug/m^3$ in outdoors. These concentrations are lower than the existing IAQ standards. The estimated carcinogenic risk of formaldehyde is up to 1.05E-03 for the adult male group and exceeds 1E-06 for all receptor groups. This value means that cancer could affect one person out of 1000. The estimated non-carcinogenic risk of toluene was lower than 1, which means that there was no serious non- carcinogenic risk. The result of modeling shows that using low emitting indoor sources is the most effective strategy for both formaldehyde and toluene. This risk assessment suggests that the total exposure levels of existing IAQ standards may cause serious carcinogenic risk. In order to avoid uncontrolled risk, it is suggested that the current IAQ standards should be adjusted by taking into account the total amount of exposure from all exposure pathways from indoor and outdoor sources.

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Development of a Comprehensive Model of Disaster Management in Korea Based on the Result of Response to Sampung Building Collapse (1995), - Disaster Law, and 98 Disaster Preparedness Plan of Seoul City - (우리나라 사고예방과 재난관리 모형 개발을 위한 연구)

  • Lee, In-Sook
    • Research in Community and Public Health Nursing
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.289-316
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    • 2000
  • 우리나라의 경우 지역사회 재난 관리계획과 훈련이 보건의료적 모형이라기 보다는 민방위 모형에 입각하기 때문에 사고 현장에서의 환자 중증도 분류, 합리적 환자배분 및 이송, 병원 응급실에서의 대처 등이 체계적으로 이루어지지 못하고 있으며, 지역사회가 이에 즉각적으로 반응할 수 없다. 본 연구는 삼풍 붕괴사고 시에 대응방식과 그 후의 우리나라 응급의료 체계를 분석함으로써 대형사고 예방과 재난관리를 위한 우리나라 응급의료체계의 개선방안과 간호교육에서의 준비부분을 제시하고자 한다. 1 삼풍 사고 발생시에는 이를 관장할 만한 법적 근거인 인위적 재해에 관한 재난관리법이 없었다. 따라서 현장에서는 의학적 명령체계를 확보하지 못했기 때문에 현장에서의 응급 처치는 전혀 이루어지지 못하였다. 현장에서의 중증도 분류. 응급조치와 의뢰, 병원과 현장본부 그리고 구급차간의 통신 체계 두절, 환자 운송 중 의료지시를 받을 수 있도록 인력, 장비, 통신 체계가 준비되지 못하였던 점이 주요한 문제였다. 또한 병원 응급실에서는 재난 계획이 없거나 있었더라도 이를 활성화하여 병원의 운영 체계를 변환해가지 못하였다. 2. 삼풍백화점 붕괴사고 한달 후에는 인위적 재해에 대한 재난관리법이 제정되고, 행정부 수준별로 매년 지역요구에 합당한 재난관리 계획을 세우도록 법으로 규정하였다. 재난 관리법에는 보건의료 측면에서의 현장대응, 주민 참여, 응급 의료적 대처, 정보의 배된. 교육/훈련 등이 포함되어 있어야 한다. 그러나 법적 기반이 마련된 이후에도 한국 재난 계획 내에는 응급의료 측면의 대응 영역은 부처간 역할의 명시가 미흡하며, 현장에서의 응급 대응과정을 수행할 수 있는 운영 지침이 없이 명목상 언급으로 그치고 있기 때문에 계획을 활성화시켜 지역사회에서 운영하기는 어렵다. 즉 이 내용 속에는 사고의 확인 /공고, 응급 사고 지령, 요구 평가, 사상자의 중증도 분류와 안정화, 사상자 수집, 현장 처치 생명보존과 내과 외과적 응급처치가 수반된 이송, 사고 후 정신적 스트레스 관리, 사고의 총괄적 평가 부분에 대한 인력간 부처간 역할과 업무가 분명히 제시되어 있지 못하여, 사고 발생시 가장 중요한 연계적 업무 처리나 부문간 협조를 하기 어렵다. 의료 기관과 응급실/중환자실, 시민 안전을 책임지고 있는 기관들과의 상호 협력의 연계는 부족하다. 즉 현재의 재난 대비 계획 속에는 부처별 분명한 업무 분장, 재난 상황에 따른 시나리오적 대비 계획과 이를 훈련할 틀을 확보하고 있지 못하다. 3. 지방 정부 수준의 재난 계획서에는 재난 발생시 보건의료에 관한 사항 전반을 공공 보건소가 핵심적 역할을 하며 재난 관리에 대처해야 된다고 규정하고 있다. 그러므로 보건소는 지역사회 중심의 재난 관리 계획을 구성하고 이를 운영하며, 재난 현장에서의 응급 치료 대응 과정은 구조/ 구명을 책임지고 있는 공공기관인 소방서와 지역의 응급의료병원에게 위임한다. 즉 지역사회 재난 관리 계획이 보건소 주도하에 관내 병원과 관련기관(소방서. 경찰서)이 협동하여 만들고 업무를 명확히 분담하여 연계방안을 만든다. 이는 재난관리 대처에 성공여부를 결정하는 주요 요인이다. 4 대한 적십자사의 지역사회 주민에 대한 교육 프로그램은 연중 열리고 있다. 그러나 대부분의 교육주제는 건강증진 영역이며. 응급의료 관리는 전체 교육시간의 8%를 차지하며 이중 재난 준비를 위한 주민 교육 프로그램은 없다. 또한 특정 연령층이 모여있는 학교의 경우도 정규 보건교육 시간이 없기 때문에 생명구조나 응급처치를 체계적으로 배우고 연습할 기회가 없으면서 국민의 재난 준비의 기반확대가 되고 있지 못하다. 5. 병원은 재난 관리 위원회를 군성하여 병원의 진료권역 내에 있는 여러 자원을 감안한 포괄적인 재난관리계획을 세우고, 지역사회를 포함한 훈련을 해야 한다. 그러나 현재 병원은 명목상의 재난 관리 계획을 갖고 있을 뿐이다. 6. 재난관리 준비도를 평가할 때 병원응급실 치료 팀의 인력과 장비 등은 비교적 기준을 충족시키고 있었으나 병원의 재난 관리 계획은 전혀 훈련되고 있지 못하였다 그러므로 우리나라 재난 관리의 준비를 위해서는 현장의 응급의료체계, 재난 대응 계획, 이의 훈련을 통한 주민교육이 선행되어야만 개선될 수 있다. 즉 민방위 훈련 모델이 아닌 응급의료 서비스 모델에 입각한 장기적 노력과 재원의 투입이 필요하며, 지역사회를 중심으로 대응 준비와 이의 활성화 전략 개발, 훈련과 연습. 교육에 노력을 부여해야 한다. 7. 현장의 1차 응급처치자에 대해서는 법적으로 명시하고 있는 역할이 없다. 한국에서는 응급구조사 1급과 2급에 대한 교육과 규정을 1995년 이후 응급의료에 관한 법률에서 정하고 있다. 이 교육과정은 미국이 정하고 있는 응급구조사 과정 기준과 유사하지만 실습실이나 현장에서의 실습시간이 절대적으로 부족하다. 덧붙여 승인된 응급구조사 교육 기관의 강사는 강사로서의 자격기준을 충족할 뿐 아니라 실습강사는 대체적으로 1주일의 1/2은 응급 구조차를 탑승하여 현장 활동을 끊임없이 하고 있으며, 실습은 시나리오 유형으로 진행된다. 그러므로 우리나라의 경우 응급 구조사가 현장 기술 인력으로 역할 할 수 있도록 교과과정 내에서 실습을 강화 시켜야하며, 졸업생은 인턴쉽을 통한 현장 능력을 배양시키는 것이 필요하다. 8. 간호사의 경우 응급전문간호사의 자격을 부여받게 됨에 따라, 이를 위한 표준 교육 지침을 개발함으로써 병원 전 처치와 재난시 대응할 수 있는 역량을 보완해야 한다. 또한 현 자격 부여 프로그램 내용을 고려하여 정규자격 간호사가 현장 1차 치료자(first responder)로 역할 할 수 있도록 간호학 교과과정을 부분 보완해야한다.

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Predicting the suitable habitat of the Pinus pumila under climate change (기후변화에 의한 눈잣나무의 서식지 분포 예측)

  • Park, Hyun-Chul;Lee, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Gwan-Gyu
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.379-392
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    • 2014
  • This study was performed to predict the future climate envelope of Pinus pumila, a subalpine plant and a Climate-sensitive Biological Indicator Species (CBIS) of Korea. P. pumila is distributed at Mt. seorak in South Korea. Suitable habitat were predicted under two alternative RCPscenarios (IPCC AR5). The SDM used for future prediction was a Maxent model, and the total number of environmental variables for Maxent was 8. It was found that the distribution range of P. pumila in the South Korean was $38^{\circ}7^{\prime}8^{{\prime}{\prime}}N{\sim}38^{\circ}7^{\prime}14^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$ and $128^{\circ}28^{\prime}2^{{\prime}{\prime}}E{\sim}128^{\circ}27^{\prime}38^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$ and 1,586m~1,688m in altitude. The variables that contribute the most to define the climate envelope are altitude. Climate envelope simulation accuracy was evaluated using the ROC's AUC. The P. pumila model's 5-cv AUC was found to be 0.99966. which showed that model accuracy was very high. Under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the climate envelope for P. pumila is predicted to decrease in South Korea. According to the results of the maxent model has been applied in the current climate, suitable habitat is $790.78km^2$. The suitable habitats, are distributed in the region of over 1,400m. Further, in comparison with the suitable habitat of applying RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 suitable habitat current, reduction of area RCP8.5 was greater than RCP4.5. Thus, climate change will affect the distribution of P. pumila. Therefore, governmental measures to conserve this species will be necessary. Additionally, for CBIS vulnerability analysis and studies using sampling techniques to monitor areas based on the outcomes of this study, future study designs should incorporate the use of climatic predictions derived from multiple GCMs, especially GCMs that were not the one used in this study. Furthermore, if environmental variables directly relevant to CBIS distribution other than climate variables, such as the Bioclim parameters, are ever identified, more accurate prediction than in this study will be possible.

A Study on Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering System and its Economic Analysis (해상부유식 LNG 벙커링 시스템 R&D사업의 경제성 분석)

  • Seo, Sunyae;Cho, Sungwoo
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.69-89
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    • 2014
  • The business performance of port industry is steadily getting worse due to international environmental regulation. The port industry should be prepared according to ambient condition change. IMO(International Maritime Organization) is tightening up environmental regulation of vessel and maritime industry field. ECA(Emission Control Area), starting with the Baltic, has initialized and has been expanded. Korea must strengthen the control of vessel in accordance with IMO's restriction, if Korea is designated as emission control area. These situations cause the expansion of LNG-fuelled ships. Add to the larger trend of ships, Korean government should be done a preemptive action against LNG bunkering industry. This study proposes the concept of floating offshore LNG bunkering system and is conducted its economic feasibility evaluation based on empirical analysis. We examine the theoretical foundation and basic information via "A Planning Study on the Engineering Development of Floating Offshore LNG Bunkering Terminal" in 2013 and we evaluate the business potential by using the report above mentioned. The results of this study are as follows. The values of B/C analysis are between 0.679 and 2.516 depending on market share and R&D contributiveness. In case of 10.9%(market share), if market share are 50% and 60%, the value of B/C analysis are 0.697 and 0.837 respectively. Except in two cases, all remaining values are over 1.0. Moreover, the research is conducted sensitivity analysis to remove the project uncertainty. In order to maintain economical validity, a project manager have to establish business strategies which are not to cause increase of expense and sustain market share and R&D contributiveness in the scenario with normal levels.

Exposure and Risk Assessments of Multimedia of Arsenic in the Environment (환경 중 비소의 매체통합 노출평가 및 위해성평가 연구)

  • Sim, Ki-Tae;Kim, Dong-Hoon;Lee, Jaewoo;Lee, Chae-Hong;Park, Soyeon;Seok, Kwang-Seol;Kim, Younghee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.152-168
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    • 2019
  • The element arsenic, which is abundant in the Earth's crust, is used for various industrial purposes including materials for disease treatment and household goods. Various human activities, such as the disposal of soil waste, metal mining and smelting, and combustion of fossil fuels, have caused the pollution of the environment with arsenic. Recently, guidelines for arsenic in rice have been adopted by the Korean ministry of food and drug safety to prevent health risks based on rice consumption. Because of the exposure to arsenic and its accumulation in the human body through various channels, such as air inhalation, skin contact, ingestion of drinking water, and food consumption, integrated multimedia risk assessment is required to adopt appropriate risk management policies. Therefore, integrated human health risk assessment was carried out in this study using integrated exposure assessment based on multimedia (e.g., air, water, and soil) and multi-route (e.g., oral, inhalation, and dermal) scenarios. The results show that oral uptake via drinking water is the most common pathway of arsenic into the human body, accounting for 57%-96% of the total arsenic exposure. Among various age groups, the highest exposures to arsenic were observed in infants because the body weight of infants is low and the surface areas of infant bodies are large. Based on the results of the exposure assessment, the cancer and non-cancer risks were calculated. The cancer risk for CTE and RME is in the range of 2.3E-05 to 6.7E-05 and thus is negligible because it does not exceed the cancer probability of 1.0E-04 for all age groups. On the other hand, the cancer risk for RME varies from 6.4E-05 to 1.8E-04 and from 1.3E-04 to 1.8E-04 for infants and preschool children, exceeding the excess cancer risk of 1.0E-04. The non-cancer risks range from 5.4E-02 to 1.9E-01 and from 1.5E-01 to 6.8E-01, respectively. They do not exceed the hazard index 1 for all scenarios and all ages.

Development of an Algorithm for Dynamic Traffic Operations of Freeway Climbing Lane Toward Traffic Safety (교통안전성을 고려한 고속도로 오르막차로 동적운영 알고리즘 개발)

  • PARK, Hyunjin;YOUN, Seokmin;OH, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.68-80
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    • 2016
  • Interest in freeway truck traffic has increased largely due to greater safety concerns regarding truck-related crashes. The negative interactions between slow-moving trucks and other vehicles are a primary cause of hazardous conditions, which lead to crashes with larger speed variations. To improve operational efficiency and safety, providing a climbing lane that separates slow-moving trucks from higher performance vehicles is frequently considered when upgrading geometrics. This study developed an operations strategy for freeway climbing lanes based on traffic conditions in real time. To consider traffic safety when designing a dynamic strategy to determine whether a climbing lane is closed or open, various factors, including the level of service (LOS) and the percentage of trucks, are investigated through microscopic simulations. A microscopic traffic simulator, VISSIM, was used to simulate freeway traffic streams and collect vehicle-maneuvering data. Additionally, an external application program interface, VISSIM's COM-interface, was used to implement the proposed climbing lane operations strategies. Surrogate safety measures (SSM), including the frequency of rear-end conflicts and, were used to quantitatively evaluate the traffic safety using an analysis of individual vehicle trajectories obtained from VISSIM simulations with various operations scenarios. It is expected that the proposed algorithm can be the backbone for operating the climbing lane in real time for safer traffic management.

Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on Forest Biomass by Different Ecoprovinces and Forest Types in Korea (기후변화에 따른 생태권역별·임상별 산림 바이오매스 변화량 예측)

  • Shin, Jin Young;Won, Myoung Soo;Kim, Kyongha;Shin, Man Yong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2013
  • This study was conducted to predict the changes in forest biomass in different ecoprovinces and forest types under climate change scenario based on cumulative data (i.e., digital forest site and climate maps, National Forest Inventory data) and various prediction models. The results from this study showed that predicted changes over time in biomass varied according to ecoprovince and forest type in Korea. A reduction in biomass was predicted for all forest types associated with the mountain, southeastern hilly, and southwestern hilly ecoprovinces. On the other hand, the biomass was predicted to increase for the coniferous forest and mixed-forest types in the central hilly ecoprovince. Furthermore, increases in biomass are predicted for all forest types, except coniferous forests, in the coastal ecoprovince. The results from this study provide a basis for developing technology to predict forest impacts due to climate change by predicting changes in forest biomass based on the estimation of site index.