• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.361-361
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• 2020

우리나라의 경우 강수량이 지역별로 편중되면서 국지적 가뭄이 발생하고, 지형적 특성으로 상습가뭄지역 피해가 확대되고 있다. 더불어 강수의 시기별 편차가 커지면서 봄 가뭄 증가 및 장기 기후변화 시나리오도 가뭄 발생 가능성 증가를 전망하고 있다. 그러나 우리나라의 경우 가뭄대응 대책 마련시 선제적인 가뭄대응 대책 마련보다, 사후복구·단기대책을 중심으로 가뭄대응능력을 추진하고 있어 예방중심의 가뭄대응능력의 한계점을 지니고 있다. 본 연구에서는 선제적 예방 중심의 가뭄대응 전략을 위해 물순환 모델을 기반으로 수원별 가뭄대응능력을 평가하고, 지역별로 산정된 용수공급가능일수를 기반으로 수문학적 가뭄취약지도를 작성하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이때 용수공급가능일수는 가뭄시나리오(20년, 30년, 50년 등)를 설정하여 시나리오별 공급가능일수를 평가하여 시공간적 가뭄취약성 분석이 가능한 모형으로 확장하였다. 수문학적 가뭄취약지도의 경우 정책결정자, 업무사용자 등 효율적 정보 제공이 가능할 것으로 판단되며, 지역별로 현안사항 도출 및 개선방안을 위한 기초자료로 활용 될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• Korean Journal of Comparative Education
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.53-70
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• 2014

This study was performed in order to suggest the future model of Asian universities that could be used in the planning of the global competitive strategy. Futurologists forecasted the future of higher education using Harman Fan Scenario as like this. First, most current universities will be 'the satellite university' until 2015. Second, they also will replace 'the bookless university' until 2020. Third, they will be 'no calendar university' until 2025. And then they may be 'all have access university' until 2030. After 2030, futurologists prospected that almost universities based on off-line campus will be disappeared into the history. The analysis method of Harman fan scenario and applied scenarios were also used to "A study on the future scenario of Korean university". The predictive model and the alternative models were explored in a view point of students, enterprise, and government. Individuality with educational excellence are standardized for learner, profit and effectiveness are applied for enterpriser, and equality with welfare are adapted for national leader. Asian universities need to focus on bringing up the practical ability based on conscious and emotional education instead of knowledge based on memory. Also they need to enforce the specialized education that can create new jobs through convergence of interdisciplinary. Especially, Asian nations need to explore, to find the strengthen area of their universities compared with USA. And these area should be specialized. The convergency strategy between oriental medicine and informatics is a meaningful sample. Based on this point, a predicted with 3 alternative scenarios in a view point of equality were suggested for the future of Asian universities.

• Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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• 2003.11c
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• pp.1641-1644
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• 2003

레거시 시스템은 과거의 기술로 과거에 설정된 목적으로 구축되어졌지만, 여전히 조직 내에서 중요한 역할을 수행하기에, 새로운 시스템으로 대체하거나 변경하기에는 위험 부담이 매우 크다. 따라서, 레거시 시스템의 재공학을 위해서는 조직의 이해 당사자들이 합의한 명확한 비전과 이를 완벽히 수행할 수 있는 조직의 역량의 뒷받침이 필수적이다. 이는 동일한 목적을 갖는 유사한 레거시 시스템을 동일한 타겟 시스템으로 변환한다 하더라도, 조직이 갖는 비전과 구성원들의 역량 등 조직의 특수한 조건과 환경에 따라 재공학을 진행하는 전략과 프로세스가 매우 상이하게 적용되어져야만 원하는 재공학 효과를 달성할 수 있기 때문이다. 본 논문에서는 각 조직들이 그들의 업무와 역량에 맞는 재공학 전략과 변환 프로세스를 수립할 수 있는 가이드라인 제시를 목적으로, 아키텍처 기반의 점진적인 재공학 방법론인 마르미-RE 의 적용에 따른 재공학 전략의 도출 방법 및 맞춤형 프로세스 정의를 위한 변환 시나리오를 제시한다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.10 no.11
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• pp.197-202
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• 2012

Block Train Services(BTS) are actively studied in many countries for higher productivity and eco-friendly systems of inland freight distribution. However it is difficult for an ordinary student or researcher to approach for understanding and studying BTS because rail transport is operated monopolistically by Korea government and most freight information in each company belongs to its business secret due to the industrial characteristics. For such reasons, the study aimed to develop a BTS simulation model that it supports understanding and strategic decision required for BT operation. To build the result, expert depth-interviews were conducted with analysis of relative references through the domestic representative BT operating company K. The simulator refers to the Busan NewPort-Uiwang section and functionally, it supports scenario generation and analysis on BT operation. It makes a contribution to study a new type's technological application for learning and strategic analysis of BTS.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.75-82
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• 2007

This study was performed to investigate impacts of truck lane restrictions on multilane highways on traffic flow variables such as average speed, the frequency of lane changes, and change in traffic volume and also to verify whether or not different lane restriction scenarios were proper. Two types of hypothetical highway networks and OD demands were developed for traffic simulation models in order to conduct the experimental study. Three types of scenarios were also developed according to the number of restricted lanes for trucks. The PARAMICS microscopic traffic simulation software package was used as the primary analytical tool. Statistical analysis was conducted with simulation outputs. Results showed that truck lane restrictions may lead to positive impacts on traffic flow on multilane highways. In addition, this study demonstrated that the number of restricted lanes can be very an important factor to lead successful implementation of truck lane restrictions.

• Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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• v.35 no.4
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• pp.361-375
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• 2004

This study was to predict through the scenarios, one of the forecast technique the future of library service. In order to do that literature reviews, analysis of library's home page and specialist interview were conducted. As a result, it appeared that based on the scenarios to predict the middle future(after 5-10 years) of library service. The results of this study are as follows. The first the future information environment is represented by mobile md ubiquitous. Through this, anytime, anywhere, any device, we can be taken any media The second, the unreliable factors come out in time lag, the supply speed of terminals, library services, copyrights and so on. The third, as the supply speed of technique and the speed of technological development, the speed of technological development and the solution speed of digital copyright problem these make various scenarios. The fourth library try to find unreliable factors in constant change of the information technique, variety of internal factors. And strategy needs to dispose of various scenarios properly.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.63-71
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• 2013

Developing future weapons systems has become increasingly complicated and costly. There, modeling and simulation techniques have been highly interested in developing the defense systems. Modeling and simulation techniques provide a means to simulate military training, strategies, military doctrines, and weapons acquisition. In this paper, we proposed a small scale engagement scenario generation method for engagement M&S model. Generated scenario is one of critical factors in the field of commander training, operational analysis, and tactical evaluation. The objective of this paper is to develop a scenario generation method for small scale engagement using the FSA(Finite State Automata) and DFS(Depth First Search) algorithm. The proposed method is verified using a one-on-one combat engagement scenario between assault ship and reconnaissance ship. Also, we are visualized using Delta3D$^{TM}$.

• Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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• 2000.10c
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• pp.458-460
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• 2000

3세대 통신망(IMT-2000) 서비스의 가장 큰 특징은 단말 이동성, 개인 이동성, 서비스 이동성으로 구분되는 강력한 이동성 제공이다. INT-2000 서비스의 가장 큰 특징인 서비스 이동성을 제공하기 위해 가상 홈 환경(Virtual Home Environment)개념을 지원한다. 즉 글로벌 로밍 환경에서 서비스 가입자에게 방문 망(visited network_에서도 홈 망(home network)의 서비스를 그대로 이용할 수 있도록 하는 개념이다. VHE 서비스는 홈 서비스들에 대한 접근 투명성을 보장하기 위해 망 관점에서 어떤 VHE 시나리오를 적용할 것인지에 대한 문제도 중요하지만 프로파일을 효율적으로 관리하는 문제도 매우 중요하다. VHE 서비스를 제공하기 위해서 관리해야 할 프로파일은 사용자 프로파일(User profile), 서비스 프로파일(Service profile), 단말 프로파일(Terminal profile), 네트워크 프로파일(Network profile) 등이 있다. 본 논문에서는 사용자가 이용 가능한 서비스를 검색하는 시나리오를 바탕으로 각 프로파일이 정보를 교환하는 방법을 살펴보겠다. 사용자 프로파일 관점에서 보면 프로파일 관리 기법에는 크게 4가지 전략이 있을 수 있다. 사용자 프로파일이 홈 망에 위치하는 경우, 사용자 프로파일이 방문 망에 위치하는 경우, 사용자가 망 사이를 움직일 때 프로파일도 같이 움직이는 경우, 사용자의 단말에 위치하는 경우가 있을 수 있다. VHE 서비스를 위한 프로파일 관리기법(1) 논문에서는 앞의 두 가지 전략에 대해서 설명을 하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 나머지 두 가지 전력에 대해서 설명을 하겠다.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.13-26
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• 2013

This study is about development of technology system for MIS(Minimally Invasive Surgery) robot of S. Korea analysed by the application of scenario planning. MIS robot industry receive attention as a new growth industry for national and international and is noticeable for the leading industry of future era in Korea. In this paper was examined the characteristics of an MIS robot technology and its components. It was investigated about the technology of an overseas MIS robot(especially U.S.A) and Korean domestic MIS robot and understood such as the country's policy propulsion issues then, was searched about development direction of the future. As a result, the future policy for MIS robot of S. Korea is to further spur the development of new MIS robot technology and more improvement of the technology level of MIS robot with AR(Augmented Reality) display.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.1245-1258
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• 2012

This study is about development of technology for electronic government of S. Korea with cloud computing analysed by the application of scenario planning. As a society of knowledge and information has been developed rapidly, because of changing from web environment to ubiquitous environment, a lot of countries across the world as well as S. Korea for e-Government have a variety of changes with cloud computing service. So this research focused on the strategy consulting of e-Government of S. Korea with development of cloud computing technology analysed by the application of 'scenario planning' as a foresight method. As a result, the future policy for development of cloud computing technology for electronic government of S. Korea is to further spur the development of technology for hard ware and internet data center as SLA(Service Level Agreement) and service provisioning, more improvement of level of technology with soft ware solution as resource virtualization, open API(Application Programming Interface).