• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전국주택매매가격지수

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Analysis of KOSPI·Apartment Prices in Seoul·HPPCI·CLI's Correlation and Precedence (종합주가지수·서울지역아파트가격·전국주택매매가격지수·경기선행지수의 상관관계와 선행성 분석)

  • Choi, Jeong-Il;Lee, Ok-Dong
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2014
  • Correlation of KOSPI from stock market and Apartment Prices in Seoul HPPCI from real estate market has been found from this research. Furthermore, from the comparison of those indicators' flows, certain precedence was found as well. The purpose of this research is to analyze correlation and precedence among KOSPI, Apartment price in Seoul, HPPCI and CLI. As for predicting KOSPI of stock market and real estate market, it is necessary to find out preceding indices and analyzing their progresses first. For 27 years from the January 1987 to December 2013, KOSPI has been grown by 687%, while CLI showed 443%, Apartment of Seoul showed 391%, HPPCI showed 263% of growth rate in order. As the result of correlation analysis among Apartment of Seoul, CLI, KOSPI and HPPCI, KOSPI and HPPCI showed high correlation coefficient of 0.877, and Apartment of Seoul and CLI showed that of 0.956 which is even higher. Result from the analysis, CLI shows high correlation with stock and real estate market, it is a good option to watch how CLI flows to predict stock and real estate market.

Liquidity-related Variables Impact on Housing Prices and Policy Implications (유동성 관련 변수가 주택가격에 미치는 영향 및 정책적 시사점에 관한 연구)

  • Chun, Haejung
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.585-600
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study related to the liquidity impact of the housing market variables using vector auto-regressive model(VAR) and empirical analysis is to derive some policy implications. October 2003 until May 2012 using monthly data for liquidity variables mortgage rates, mortgage, financial liquidity, as the composite index and nation, Seoul, Gangnam, Gangbuk, the Apartment sales prices were analyzed. Granger Causality Test Results, mortgage rates and mortgage at a bargain price two regions had a strong causal relationship. Since the impulse response analysis, Geothermal difference there, but housing price housing price itself, the most significant ongoing positive (+) reactions were liquidity-related variables are mortgage loans is large and persistent positive (+), financial liquidity weakly positive (+), mortgage interest rates are negative (-), KOSPI, the negative (-) reacted. Liquidity and housing prices that the rise can be and Gangnam in Gangbuk is greater than the factor that housing investment was confirmed empirically. Government to consider the current economic situation, while maintaining low interest rates and liquidity of the market rather than the real estate industry must ensure that activities can be embedded and local enforcement policies should be differentiated according to the policy will be able to reap significant effect.

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A Study on the Effect of Real Estate Policy on Real Estate Price: Focusing on Tax Policy and Financial Policy (부동산정책이 부동산가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 조세정책과 금융정책 중심으로)

  • Jin-O Jung;Jae-Ho Chung
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.55-75
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    • 2023
  • Based on prior studies on real estate policy, tax policy, and financial policy, this study examined how tax policy and financial policy affected real estate prices using monthly data from January 2014 to December 2021. We performed a VAR model using unit root tests, cointegration tests, as well as conducted impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. The results are as follows. First, the tax regulation index and the financial regulation index had no discernible impact on housing prices. Specifically, a one-sided stabilizing regulatory policy was ineffective and, instead, led to unintended side effects, such as price increases resulting from reduced transaction volume. Secondly, mortgage rates had a negative impact on the housing sale price index. In other words, an increase in interest rates might led to a decrease in housing prices. Thirdly, an increase in the transfer difference, which involves capital gains tax, has a positive effect on housing prices. This led to rising housing prices because the transfer taxes were shifted to buyers, causing them to hesitate to make purchases due to the increased tax burden. Fourthly, both acquisition taxes and mortgage loans had relatively little impact on housing prices.

Estimating the Determinants of Households' Monthly Average Income : A Panel Data Model Approach (패널 데이터모형을 적용한 가구당 월평균 가계소득 결정요인 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Yi, Hyun-Joo;Cheul, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.2038-2045
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    • 2010
  • Households' monthly average income is composed of various factors. This study paper studies focuses on estimating the determinants of a households' monthly average income. The region for analysis consist of three groups, that is, the whole country, a metropolitan city(such as Busan, Daegu, Incheon, Gwangiu, Daejeon, Ulsan.) and Seoul. Analyzing period be formed over a 57 time points(2005. 01~2009. 09). In this paper the dependent variable setting up the households' monthly average income, explanatory (independent) variables are composed of the consumer price index, employment to population ratio, Index of housing sale price, the preceding composite index, loans of housing mortgage, spending rate for care medical expense and the composite stock price index. In looking at the factors which determine the monthly average income, evidence was produced supporting the hypothesis that there is a significant positive relationship between the composite index and housing loans. The study also produced evidence supporting the view that there is a significant negative relationship between employment ratios, the house sale pricing index and spending rates for care or medical needs. The study found that the consumer price index and composite stock price index were not significant variables. The implications of these findings are discussed for further research.

A spatial panel regression model for household final consumption expenditure based on KTX effects (공간패널모형을 이용한 KTX 개통이 지역소비에 미친 영향 분석)

  • Na, Young;Kim, Yongku
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.1147-1154
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    • 2016
  • Impact of Korea train express (KTX) on the regional economy in Korea has been studied by many researchers. Current research is limited in the lack of quantitative research using a statistical model to study the effect of KTX on regional economy. This paper analyses the influence of KTX to the household final consumption expenditure, which is one of important regional economic index, using spatial panel regression model. The spatial structure is introduced through spatial autocorrelation matrix using adjacency of KTX connection. The result shows a significant effect of Korea train express on the regional economy.